Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback on October 10, following a strong opening on October 9, with the ChiNext and STAR Market showing larger declines [1] - High-dividend stocks, such as the S&P Dividend ETF (562060), rose by 1.2%, while sectors like batteries, semiconductors, and non-ferrous metals faced significant declines [1][2] - The agricultural sector showed resilience, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) reaching a peak increase of 1.5% before closing up 0.8% [1][5] Sector Performance - The technology sector faced a broad sell-off, particularly in AI-related stocks, with the Sci-Tech AI ETF (589520) dropping 4.75% [1][2] - Coal stocks strengthened due to seasonal demand for heating, with expectations of price increases if supply constraints are enforced [3] - The agricultural sector is seeing a potential turning point in the pig cycle, supported by recent policy signals aimed at reducing production capacity [7][10] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest focusing on AI infrastructure and applications as key investment opportunities, particularly in machinery and semiconductor equipment [4] - The agricultural sector is viewed as a favorable investment due to low valuations and supportive policy changes, with the agricultural ETF (159275) showing strong net subscriptions [8][11] - The internet sector in Hong Kong is experiencing volatility, with major stocks like Alibaba and Tencent facing declines, but long-term growth prospects remain positive [12][15] Fund Flows and ETF Performance - The internet ETF (513770) in Hong Kong saw a decline of 3.41%, but still attracted buying interest during dips, indicating investor confidence [12][15] - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) experienced a drop of 3.33% but received significant net subscriptions, highlighting ongoing investor interest in the sector [22][26] - Overall, the market is characterized by a high-low rotation, with strong performance in certain sectors like coal and agriculture amidst broader market corrections [3][5]

农业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 生猪行业深亏，提速去产能 ——东方证券农林牧渔行业周报（20251006-20251012） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 投资建议：（1）看好生猪养殖板块，优质公司持续盈利和分红率提升依然是推动板块长 期业绩和估值提升的核心驱动；近期政策与市场合力推动生猪养殖行业产能去化，助力 未来板块业绩长期提升，相关标的：牧原股份(002714，买入)、温氏股份(300498，买 入)、神农集团(605296，未评级)、巨星农牧(603477，未评级)等。（2）后周期板块，生 猪存栏量回升提振饲料、动保需求，若本轮生猪去产能顺畅，产业链利润有望逐步向下 游传导，驱动动保板块上行，相关标的：海大集团(002311，未评级)、瑞普生物 (300119，未评级)等。（3）种植链，当前粮价上行趋势已确立，种植&种业基本面向好， 大种植投资机会凸显，相关标的：苏垦农发(601952，未评级)、北大荒(600598，未评 级)、海南橡胶(601118，未评级)、隆平高科(000998，未评级)等。（4）宠物板块，宠食 行业正处于增量、提价逻辑持续落地的阶段，海外市场增量不断，国产品牌认可度持续 提 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, with a focus on selecting low-cost quality enterprises [2][22]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural market [12][13]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing significant losses due to falling prices, with an average price of 10.91 yuan/kg, leading to a potential reduction in production capacity [21][22]. - The poultry sector shows signs of stabilization, with yellow feathered chicken prices remaining resilient due to improved downstream demand [3][37]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, while dairy cow inventory is on a downward trend [4][42]. - The planting industry is experiencing pressure from supply and demand, but potential price increases could occur if there are significant reductions in grain production [5][49]. - Feed prices are stabilizing, and the aquaculture sector is showing upward trends in pricing [62][68]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The national average pig price has dropped below 11 yuan/kg, with the industry currently in a loss-making state. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.48 kg, indicating high inventory levels despite price declines [2][21]. - Short-term expectations indicate further price declines, but medium to long-term prospects remain positive for quality enterprises [22]. Poultry Farming - The average price for white feathered chicken is 6.88 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The profitability of parent breeding chickens has improved, while broiler profitability remains under pressure [3][36]. - The sector is expected to stabilize as consumer demand gradually recovers [37]. Livestock - Live cattle prices in Shandong are at 27.20 yuan/kg, with expectations for steady price increases as the consumption season approaches. The dairy sector is experiencing a reduction in inventory due to ongoing financial pressures [4][42]. - The beef cycle is anticipated to begin anew, with a focus on the synergy between meat and dairy production [43]. Planting Industry - Recent fluctuations in grain prices are noted, with corn prices at 2215.71 yuan/ton and soybean prices at 3987.37 yuan/ton. The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in crop yields occur [5][48]. - The report emphasizes the importance of advancements in seed technology and production efficiency [49]. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices for fattening pigs and poultry remain stable, while aquaculture prices are showing positive trends, particularly for shrimp and fish products [62][68].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Viewpoints - After the double holiday, pig prices have rapidly declined to below 12 yuan/kg, with self-breeding and self-raising profitability dropping to -152.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 47.2 yuan/head from the previous week. The pressure from high supply is expected to continue to weigh on pig prices, leading to increased market pessimism and a potential for further price declines. However, there is an expectation for a mid-to-long-term price reversal driven by policy and proactive production cuts [1][15][19] - The average selling price of lean pigs nationwide is 11.39 yuan/kg, down 6.1% from last week. The current valuation remains relatively low, suggesting investment opportunities in low-cost pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [2][16] - In poultry farming, the price of white feather chickens is 6.88 yuan/kg, down 0.1% from last week, while the average price of chicken products remains stable at 8.65 yuan/kg. The price of meat chicken chicks has increased by 0.6% to 3.22 yuan each. There are expectations for a price rebound in the chicken market [2][16][34] Summary by Sections Livestock - The average weight of pigs sold is 128.48 kg, showing a 0.5% increase from the low point in early August. Feed prices have also increased, indicating a gradual rise in pig inventory since July [1][15] - The profitability of self-breeding and self-raising pigs is -152.15 yuan/head, while the profitability of purchased piglets is -301.04 yuan/head, indicating significant losses in the sector [19][20] Poultry - The price of yellow feather chickens has seen a week-on-week increase of 1.9%, with the current price at 14.18 yuan/kg. This suggests seasonal price elasticity opportunities [2][16][40] - The profitability of parent breeding chickens is 0.47 yuan/head, while the profitability of meat chickens is -2.23 yuan/head, reflecting challenges in the poultry sector [38][44] Agricultural Products - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to lead to commercial sales, with potential growth for industry companies as prices and profit distribution become clearer [2][16] Feed and Vaccines - The volatility in agricultural product prices is increasing, and leading feed companies are expected to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement and scale [2][16]

Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Positive" for the agricultural products sector [11] Core Viewpoints - The swine breeding industry has transitioned from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with medium to long-term capacity regulation becoming the new normal. High-quality breeding companies are expected to see significant improvements in profit margins and profitability levels [2][20] - The report highlights a divergence in profitability within the breeding sector, with leading companies still achieving good performance despite overall industry challenges. The poultry sector is experiencing a recovery in yellow-feathered chicken prices, which is gradually improving profitability [2][20] - The aquaculture feed industry continues to show strong performance, with leading companies like Haida Group expected to achieve simultaneous growth in volume and profit [2][20] - The pet food sector is experiencing sustained high growth in proprietary brands, with overseas factories demonstrating resilience in exports. Key recommendations include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [2][20] Summary by Sections Swine Breeding Sector - The swine breeding sector is gradually entering a loss phase, with significant divergence in profitability among listed companies. The average price of live pigs in Q3 2025 is approximately 14.0 CNY/kg, down 4% quarter-on-quarter and 28% year-on-year. The average profit for self-bred pigs is about 42 CNY/head, while purchasing piglets incurs a loss of 118 CNY/head [7][21] - High-quality breeding companies have a complete cost below 12 CNY/kg, maintaining a profit of over 200 CNY/head, while companies with higher costs may still face losses [7][21] - Future pig prices are expected to rise in Q4 2025 and 2026 due to increased supply indicators and policy-driven capacity restrictions [26] Feed Sector - The feed industry maintains growth in production, with aquaculture feed demand recovering. Haida Group's feed sales are expected to grow by about 20% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with net profit in the feed sector expected to increase by 30%-40% year-on-year [8][43] - The report notes that the structure of feed products is improving, with higher-margin products gaining a larger share of sales [8][43] Poultry Sector - The yellow-feathered chicken prices have bottomed out and are recovering, which is enhancing the profitability of the poultry breeding sector [2][20] Pet Food Sector - The pet food sector continues to see high growth in proprietary brands, with Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co recommended for their resilience in overseas sales. Online sales growth for the pet food industry is around 7.7%, with Guibao's proprietary brand growing by 21% [9][20]

Core Insights - The continuous decline in pig prices has created significant challenges for pig farming companies, with prices dropping to a new low of 11.20 yuan/kg, below the cost line of 13-14 yuan/kg for most producers [2][3][6] - Major companies like Wen's Foodstuffs and New Hope are adopting a "volume compensates for price" strategy, but this has not mitigated the impact of falling prices [2][6] - The tightening of financing options due to policy changes is exacerbating the cash flow issues faced by some pig farming companies, leading to a survival-of-the-fittest scenario in the industry [9][11] Industry Overview - As of October 11, the national average price for live pigs was 11.20 yuan/kg, reflecting a 15.92% month-on-month decline and a 38.36% year-on-year drop [3] - The industry is experiencing widespread losses, with many companies forced to sell off stock due to oversupply, leading to a grim outlook for the future [8][12] - The government has implemented measures to control pig production capacity, aiming to stabilize prices and reduce the number of breeding sows [9][12] Company Performance - Major pig farming companies reported declining sales and revenues in September 2025, with examples including: - Muyuan Foods sold 5.573 million pigs, generating 9.066 billion yuan in revenue, with an average price of 12.88 yuan/kg, all showing declines from August [7] - Wen's Foodstuffs sold 3.3253 million pigs, with a revenue of 4.975 billion yuan and an average price of 13.18 yuan/kg, also reflecting declines [7] - New Hope sold 1.3942 million pigs, generating 1.746 billion yuan in revenue, with an average price of 12.89 yuan/kg, showing significant year-on-year declines [7] Market Dynamics - The market is entering a phase of weak demand and strong supply, with an increase in planned slaughter numbers for October, indicating continued pressure on prices [12] - Analysts predict that the fourth quarter will be crucial for the performance of listed pig farming companies, with price recovery largely dependent on the effectiveness of production capacity controls [12][13] - The ongoing price decline is expected to lead to a reduction in production capacity, although the timing and extent of this adjustment remain uncertain [13]

中国发展网讯2025年第三季度，青岛市粮油副食品市场供应充足。监测数据显示，受供求关系和季节性 等因素影响，本季度部分粮油、生猪猪肉价格环比小幅下跌，鸡蛋、蔬菜价格环比均有不同幅度上涨。 部分粮油价格环比小幅下跌 大米(一级长粒)季度平均价格为3.26元(每500克，下同)，环比持平，同比下跌2.11%；面粉(特一粉)季度 平均价格为2.37元，环比下跌1.67%，同比下跌0.58%。 生猪季度平均价格为7.09元,环比下跌3.70%，同比下跌28.01%。根据市场表现分析，七月上旬生猪价格 持续低位运行导致养殖端惜售情绪增强，同时冻肉收储政策对猪价形成支撑，导致猪价低位反弹。中下 旬因高温增加疫病风险，养殖端出栏节奏加快，供应有所增长，但需求端持续疲软，导致生猪价格震荡 走低。八月青岛市生猪市场猪源充足，高温天气持续抑制猪肉消费，猪肉产品订单持续低迷，市场交易 清淡，猪价承压下行。九月随着天气转凉，开学季集团采购叠加双节备货临近，生猪市场需求逐步复 苏，但因供给端压力较大，市场供大于求局面延续，导致猪价承压继续下滑。 受生猪价格变动影响，本季度猪肉价格随之下跌，五花肉季度平均价格为15.42元，环比下跌1. ...

以下为金十期货APP独家整理的多家期货公司研报观点，仅供参考 棕榈油 交易逻辑：印尼能源部长表示，将在2026年强制推行B50生物柴油政策，印尼棕榈油出口有收窄预期； MPOA数据显示，马来西亚9月1-30日棕榈油产量预估减少2.35%；市场调查显示，9月底棕榈油库存可 能出现七个月来首次下滑，主因出口增长、产量下降共同影响 风险因素：市场对印度可能提高植物油进口关税存在担忧；国内双节备货结束，需求端承压运行；市场 测算印尼棕榈油进口完税价较国内现价出现倒挂迹象，贸易商采购意愿低迷，某大型压榨厂暂停10月船 货招标 关注事件：美豆单产调整对豆油价格传导效应；马来西亚9月库存实际数据与预估差异；印尼B50生物 柴油政策落实情况 沪金 交易逻辑：美国共和党版本短期拨款法案及民主党替代方案均未通过，市场对美联邦政府持续停摆的担 忧加剧，资金避险需求增加；美联储9月会议纪要显示，官员一致认为年内有必要再降息一次，美元承 压运行；世界黄金协会数据显示全球央行Q3购金量同比增12% 风险因素：海内外黄金期货与现货价格创新高，估值存在回落压力；美联储降息预期或被部分计价；部 分机构下调年内降息次数预期，黄金ETF持仓有所下 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the sales performance of the company's hog sales in September 2025, indicating a significant year-on-year growth in sales volume and a slight increase in sales revenue compared to the previous month [2][4]. Group 2 - In September 2025, the company sold 373,700 hogs, generating sales revenue of 541 million yuan, with a month-on-month sales volume increase of 6.10% and a year-on-year increase of 33.08% [2]. - The average weight of the hogs sold was 128.86 kg, with an average selling price of 12.91 yuan per kg [2]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume reached 3.1608 million hogs, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.93%, while the cumulative sales revenue was 4.898 billion yuan, up 13.96% year-on-year [2].

Group 1: Core Insights - The company sold 612,700 pigs in September 2025, generating sales revenue of 634.46 million yuan, with an average selling price of 13.69 yuan/kg [2] - For the first nine months of 2025, the company sold 4.6373 million pigs, with a total sales revenue of 6.08491 billion yuan and an average selling price of 15.77 yuan/kg [2] - The company slaughtered 117,242 pigs in September 2025, with a cumulative slaughter of 1,179,275 pigs from January to September 2025 [3] Group 2: Sales Performance - The sales volume of piglets in September 2025 was 252,300, contributing to the overall sales figures [2] - The average price for fat pigs in September was 12.80 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 8.88% [2] - The sales revenue for the first nine months of 2025 showed a year-on-year decrease of 11.76% in average selling price [2] Group 3: Additional Information - The data provided is based solely on the company's controlling subsidiaries and does not include figures from associated companies [2] - The reported figures are unaudited and may differ from those disclosed in periodic reports, serving only as reference data for investors [4]