董事会认为，本集团调整前业绩由盈转亏，主要由于以下原因：期内生猪销售价格同比大幅下降，持续 于低位运行，养殖业务利润空间受到挤压，虽期内养殖成本有所改善，生鲜品牌业务有较大突破，科技 驱动成效有所显现，但整体盈利水平同比下降。 中粮家佳康(01610)发布公告，预期本集团2025年度生物资产公允价值调整前的本公司拥有人应占亏损 约为人民币2.3亿元至人民币3.5亿元(未经审核)，去年同期调整前应占溢利约为人民币2.59亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, COFCO Joycome (01610.HK), anticipates a significant shift from profit to loss for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, with expected losses ranging from RMB 230 million to RMB 350 million, compared to a profit of RMB 259 million in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The company expects a loss attributable to shareholders before fair value adjustments of biological assets for the fiscal year 2025 [1] - The previous year's profit before adjustments was RMB 259 million, indicating a substantial decline in profitability [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The primary reason for the shift from profit to loss is a significant year-on-year decline in pig sales prices, which have remained at low levels, thereby squeezing profit margins in the breeding business [1] - Despite improvements in breeding costs and notable breakthroughs in fresh brand business, the overall profitability has decreased compared to the previous year [1] - The effectiveness of technology-driven initiatives has been observed, but it has not been sufficient to offset the decline in overall earnings [1]

Core Viewpoint - The pig farming industry is undergoing a deep adjustment in a relaxed supply environment, with overall pig prices declining throughout 2025, despite a slight year-end recovery, remaining at relatively low levels. The competition is shifting from scale expansion to efficiency and collaboration within the industry chain [2][5][26]. Supply Capacity Analysis - The pig farming industry is expected to face supply pressure in the first half of 2026, with a projected output of 719.73 million pigs in 2025, a 2.4% increase, and a pork production of 59.38 million tons, a 4.1% increase [2][4]. - The breeding efficiency is improving, with the average number of weaned piglets per sow increasing from 18.32 in 2021 to 24.03 in 2024, indicating a reduction in production costs [4][6]. - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, with over 70% of pig farming being scaled, and the top 20 companies accounting for over 30% of output [4][5]. Demand Matching Capability Analysis - Overall pork consumption is expected to show weak recovery in 2026, influenced by population and income levels, with a projected per capita pork consumption of 26.6 kg per year, a 5.4% decrease from the previous year [8][9]. - The demand for pork is being affected by the availability of alternative meats, which may divert consumption away from pork [8][9]. - The overall pig price trend in 2025 was downward, with slight year-end recovery, but still at low levels, influenced by seasonal demand and supply pressures [9][11]. Industry Chain Position Analysis - The pig farming industry is positioned as a conversion link in the value chain, connecting upstream feed and breeding industries with downstream slaughtering and processing sectors [12]. - The bargaining power of upstream suppliers is weak, while the downstream bargaining power varies, with leading companies establishing long-term supply agreements to enhance pricing power [12][13]. - The competitive landscape is shifting towards efficiency and collaboration, with leading companies focusing on integrated operations across the supply chain [14][16]. Innovation Capability Analysis - The industry is guided by policies aimed at stabilizing production and improving quality, with a focus on enhancing breeding efficiency and reducing costs through technological advancements [17][19]. - Leading companies are leveraging technology to restructure cost advantages, while smaller firms are encouraged to innovate in niche markets [20][21]. - The regulatory environment is evolving towards more systematic management, emphasizing compliance and quality control across the supply chain [19]. Credit Rating Situation Analysis - In 2025, the agricultural sector issued 75 bonds totaling 51.134 billion yuan, with major issuers being leading companies like Muyuan Foods and New Hope [21][22]. - The industry is experiencing a divergence in credit quality, with larger firms maintaining stable financing channels while smaller firms face tighter financing conditions [25][27]. - The overall credit risk in the pig farming industry is manageable, with stronger companies expected to solidify their credit standing amid ongoing market pressures [27].

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 10 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年02月10日 华源晨会精粹 20260210 汽车 矿山无人驾驶专题 1:矿山无人驾驶商业模式&市场规模——汽车行业周报：为 什么看好无人矿卡赛道：1）自动驾驶大规模商业化落地进展最快的下游之一且市场 天花板较高；2）技术较为成熟，经济性突出；3）政策鼓励危险场景无人化；4）出 海逻辑清晰；5）格局初定且有较高行业壁垒；以上因素共同决定了行业龙头厂商或 具备长期成长性&投资价值。矿山无人驾驶致力于解决诸多行业痛点问题："矿区通 常地处偏远+作业环境恶劣+健康风险大+劳动强度大"引致招工难、用工贵；"装备 自动化程度低+生产系统碎片化"引致生产效率低。而这其中运输环节用工占比接近 全矿劳动员工的 50%，属于核心降本增效环节。产品模式下无人矿卡赛道市场规模： 产品模式下，下游一次性买断无人矿卡全生命周期服务（车+智驾套件/单独套件）； 该模式对于无人矿卡服务提供商的优点是"轻资产+回款快"；我们测算这种商业模 式下，中长期的国内市场规模区间预计超 200 亿元。 风险提示：1 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of pig farming in Chongqing, China, through the implementation of a smart farming model called "Pig Industry Brain 2.0 + Future Pig Farm," which leverages AI and big data for enhanced efficiency and productivity [1][2]. Group 1: Smart Farming Model - The "Pig Industry Brain 2.0" model integrates IoT to create a perception system, utilizing big data for decision-making and smart devices for precise execution, shifting pig farming from experience-based to data-driven management [2]. - The model has incorporated diverse business modules such as financial loans, pig trading, and information traceability, with over 50 million data points integrated into the system [2]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The smart farm has achieved a reduction in labor costs by 20% to 30%, a decrease in feed waste by 10%, and a reduction in pig mortality rates by over 5%, with each pig's overall cost savings ranging from 100 to 200 yuan [3]. - The AI monitoring system employs computer vision, infrared thermal imaging, and sound recognition technologies to automate 90% of inspection tasks, enhancing operational efficiency [2]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The "Pig Industry Brain" has served over 210,000 entities and facilitated more than 3 million service usages, generating 48 capability components and 490,000 industry knowledge entries, while assisting in financing over 53 million yuan and achieving online pig trading exceeding 120 billion yuan [3]. - The digital transformation is seen as a crucial step for the development of local pig industries, enhancing breeding, farming, and sales processes, while improving brand value and risk resilience [3].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group (002311.SZ) and "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) [2] Core Insights - The pig prices are expected to face downward pressure after the peak season, with self-breeding pig farming profits currently in the negative [4] - The feed industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation, with market share shifting towards leading companies with R&D advantages and scale [4] - The report highlights opportunities for Haida Group due to its efficient internal management and strong service advantages in the industry chain [4] - The report suggests that the pig farming industry may experience a significant capacity reduction in 2026, which could improve the fundamentals and valuations of the sector [5] - The pet food sector is expected to continue growing, with a shift in competition from marketing to R&D and supply chain management [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector saw a decline of 1.92% in the week of February 2-8, 2026, with the food and feed additives, meat chicken farming, and pig farming sectors performing relatively well [3][13] 2. Pig Farming - As of February 6, 2026, the average prices for external three-way cross pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 11.65, 11.96, and 12.38 CNY/kg, respectively, showing a week-on-week decline of 4.12%, 1.64%, and 1.98% [4][22] - The average pork price was 18.34 CNY/kg, down 1.45% from the previous week [4][22] - Self-breeding pig farming profits were reported at -38.09 CNY/head, a decrease of 63.19 CNY/head from the previous week [4][22] 3. Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens was reported at 7.53 CNY/kg, down 2.71% week-on-week, with a loss of 0.26 CNY per chicken [37] 4. Feed Processing - The average price of feed for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.37 CNY/kg as of January 29, 2026 [41] 5. Aquaculture - As of February 6, 2026, the price of sea cucumbers was 120 CNY/kg, and the price of shrimp was 320 CNY/kg, both remaining stable [47] 6. Crop and Oilseed Processing - As of February 6, 2026, corn was priced at 2368.43 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.33% week-on-week, while soybean prices remained stable at 4072.11 CNY/ton [56][57]

2月6日，农业农村部强化生猪产能综合调控政策，明确提出强化生猪产能综合调控，对头部生猪养殖企 业实行年度生产备案管理，有序调控全国能繁母猪存栏量，促进市场供需更加适配。短期来看，政策通 过抑制产能无序扩张缓解价格下行压力，加速低效产能出清；长期来看，政策推动行业向规模化、高质 量发展转型，头部优质企业将主导市场，行业中枢利润和景气度有望提升。未来需关注政策执行力度及 产能去化进度，这将决定猪价回暖的节奏和幅度。 当前生猪养殖已陷入深度亏损，行业面临严峻压力。截至2月初，毛猪出栏均价12.5元/公斤，猪粮比 5.26：1处于二级预警区间，头均养殖亏损130元，其中自繁自养模式在经历了1月份的短暂盈利后再度 转为亏损。这种亏损源于成本与价格的严重倒挂。尽管饲料原料价格小幅下跌，但猪价跌幅更深，导致 行业资金链持续承压。与此同时，需求端表现持续疲软。虽然春节前备货促使屠宰企业开工率小幅回升 至40%左右，但白条肉跟涨乏力，终端市场接受度一般，鲜销率提升而冻品库存消化缓慢，表明下游实 际消费提振有限。节后消费将快速回落，进入传统淡季，对猪价的支撑作用显著减弱。此外，替代品禽 肉价格同样低迷，未能对猪肉消费形成有效拉动 ...

当前自繁自养成本约 12 元/斤，放养公司代养成本约 6.2-6.3 元/斤，头 部企业断奶仔猪成本约 5.75 元/斤，行业平均水平 6-6.5 元/斤。高于此 水平则不建议继续从事该行业。 Q&A 春节前后生猪价格走势如何？有哪些因素影响了这一变化？ 春节前后的生猪价格走势呈现出较为复杂的波动趋势。根据我们的监测数据， 1 月份的均价预估为 13 元，但实际监测到的数据为 12.8 元。整个价格走势在 10 月中旬触底后，经历了多次波动，到 1 月中下旬达到高点 13.2 元。然而， 到目前（腊月十八），价格又回落至 12 元左右，有些公司统计的数据甚至跌 破了 12 元。 春节前后，市场供需关系对价格产生了显著影响。从供给端来看， 春节前屠宰量逐步增加，但整体需求并未如预期般强劲。例如，冬至当天屠宰 量达到 32.4 万头，而腊八时也仅恢复到 30 万头左右，并未突破冬至的屠宰量。 这表明尽管有季节性需求高峰，但整体消费并不如预期理想。 从需求端来看， 根据官方数据，2025 年家庭人均猪肉消费较 2024 年下降了 5%以上，这反映 出经济环境对消费能力的抑制。此外，餐饮业表现不佳，也进一步压制了猪肉 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The central government emphasizes comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity in the recently released No. 1 Central Document, indicating a shift in industry policy towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation [6][16] - The pig farming sector is experiencing a gradual recovery despite a 0.1% decline in the SW pig farming sector, with current market pressures expected to ease as production capacity is regulated [6][16] - The poultry sector faces ongoing challenges with high production capacity and weak consumption, but leading companies are likely to gain market share [18] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group, which aims to increase its dividend payout ratio and expand its market presence [10][20] - The pet industry is expected to see significant growth, with a projected market size exceeding 400 billion yuan by 2028, driven by changing consumer perceptions [51] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The pig price continues to decline, with a current price of 11.84 yuan/kg, and the industry is facing dual pressures of supply and demand [6][16] - The central government's policy shift aims to regulate the breeding stock and enhance market adaptability [6][16] - Companies with cost advantages and innovative models are expected to outperform [17] 2. Poultry - The poultry sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with broiler prices at 3.6 yuan/kg, down 5.2% week-on-week [18] - The impact of avian influenza in France may reduce the supply of imported breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices [18] - Integrated companies and those with contract farming models are likely to expand their market share [18] 3. Feed - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase dividend payouts [10][20] - The company aims for a global sales target of 100 million tons by 2050, with significant overseas market expansion [20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is projected to grow rapidly, with expectations of reaching a market size of over 400 billion yuan by 2028 [51] - Companies with strong domestic and international sales are recommended for long-term investment opportunities [21] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices have decreased by 1.5%, while corn prices have shown slight fluctuations [22] - The market is expected to remain oversupplied in the near term, with a focus on weather and import impacts [22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the announcements is the disclosure of the main operational data for the pig farming business of Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Co., Ltd. for January 2026, highlighting significant growth in sales and inventory [1][2]. - In January 2026, the company sold 166,600 pigs, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.36% and a month-on-month increase of 2.63% compared to December 2025 [1]. - The pig inventory as of January 2026 was 758,600 pigs, which is a 54.84% increase compared to January 2025 and a 2.05% increase from the end of December 2025 [2]. Group 2 - The company is actively promoting the optimization of pig farming capacity, adjusting farming layout, scale, and breed structure, while continuing to focus on cost reduction and resource concentration to develop advantageous capacity [2]. - The disclosed operational data is based on internal statistics and is unaudited, intended to provide investors with timely insights into the company's pig farming business [3]. Group 3 - The announcements also include information regarding the shareholding status of major shareholders, specifically that the major shareholder, Zhangzhou Aonong Investment Co., Ltd., and its concerted actors hold a total of 328,255,547 shares, accounting for 12.6108% of the total share capital [6]. - As of February 6, 2026, the planned share reduction by certain shareholders, including Wu Youcai and Guo Qinghui, was not executed during the designated period [6][8].