1、上周市场回顾 关键词：波动盘整 上周权益市场震荡，上证指数上涨0.02%，深证指数下跌0.9%，沪深300下跌0.3%，创业板指下跌 2.3%，科创50下跌3%。 债市上涨，10年国债收益率收于1.83%左右，下行约1.8bp，7年国债收益下行3bp左右，1年国债收益率 下行约3.3bp，3年期中债企业债收益率下行约4.6bp。 | 廈号 让莽代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [区间首日] 2025-12-15 区间尾日 2025-12-20 [単位] % ↓ | | | 801200.SI | 1 | 商贸零售(申万) | | 6.6572 | | 2 801790.SI | | 非银金融(申万) | | 2.8961 | | 3 801980.SI | | 美容护理(申万) | | 2.8666 | | 4 801210.Sl | | 社会服务(申万) | | 2.6559 | 行业涨跌榜 | 庭号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.03%, closing at 3890.45 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.89%, closing at 13140.21 points, and the ChiNext Index fell by 2.26%, closing at 3122.24 points[5] - The average daily trading volume of A-shares was 17,605 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.86% compared to the previous week[17] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included retail trade (6.66%), non-bank financials (2.90%), beauty and personal care (2.87%), social services (2.66%), and basic chemicals (2.58%)[14] - The sectors with the largest declines were electronics (-3.28%), electric equipment (-3.12%), machinery (-1.56%), comprehensive (-1.53%), and telecommunications (-0.89%) [14] Margin Trading - As of December 19, the total margin balance in the market was 25,038.28 billion yuan, an increase of 0.10% from the previous week, accounting for 2.60% of the A-share market capitalization, up by 0.15%[19] - The total margin trading volume for the week was 8,914.71 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.41%, representing 10.13% of the A-share trading volume, down by 0.61%[18] Market Breakdown - The margin balances for the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and Beijing Stock Exchange were 12,687.40 billion yuan, 12,273.34 billion yuan, and 77.54 billion yuan, with changes of 0.36%, -0.17%, and 0.51% respectively[22] - The top five industries with increased margin balances were utilities (1.81 billion yuan), commercial trade (1.49 billion yuan), non-bank financials (1.33 billion yuan), defense and military (1.12 billion yuan), and electronics (0.98 billion yuan)[25]

Group 1: Market Sentiment Model Insights - The market sentiment score has slightly decreased to 1.1 as of December 21, down from 1.35 the previous week, indicating a neutral view from a sentiment perspective [7][11] - There is a notable improvement in the overall sentiment index score this week, with signs of a rebound in market trading activity [7][11] - The price-volume consistency indicator has shown improvement, suggesting a recovery in market sentiment, although structural differentiation remains [11][12] Group 2: Trading Activity and Volume - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market decreased by 9.86% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 17,604.84 billion yuan [15] - The highest trading volume was recorded on December 17 at 18,343.65 billion yuan, indicating a peak in market activity [15] Group 3: Industry Performance and Trends - As of December 19, industries such as beauty care, pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, agriculture, and retail have shown upward trends in short-term scores [39] - The communication sector has the highest short-term score of 79.66, indicating strong performance potential [39][40] - The industry crowding indicator shows a strong positive correlation with weekly price changes, with sectors like retail and light manufacturing leading in gains [44] Group 4: Leverage and Risk Appetite - The proportion of financing balance continues to rise, reaching a new high for the phase, indicating an increase in leveraged funds and a structural recovery in risk appetite [27][29] - The RSI indicator has shown a slight recovery, suggesting improved short-term upward momentum, although it remains in a low range [30][33] Group 5: Style and Growth Signals - The current model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with signals suggesting that growth style may strengthen further [39][49] - The short-term view for the growth style remains positive, while the small-cap style is also favored, although there are indications of potential weakening in future signals [49]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperforming the Market" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights that the cross-year consumption trend is driven by policy and expected recovery, with general retail and tourism sectors performing well [12][19] - It emphasizes the strong recovery in offline consumption during the New Year and Spring Festival, particularly in major cities [17] - The tourism sector is projected to see significant growth in consumer spending, with a daily average of 6.263 million trips during the Spring Festival, representing 126% of 2019 levels [19] Summary by Sections Cross-Year Consumption Trends - The report analyzes the market performance from 2019 to 2025, noting that general retail and tourism sectors have outperformed others during the cross-year period [12] - The upcoming Q1 consumption peak and policy catalysts are expected to drive strong performance in the retail sector [12] General Retail and Supermarkets - The report anticipates a robust recovery in offline consumption during the New Year and Spring Festival, with significant year-on-year growth in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou [17] - For the Spring Festival 2025, Shanghai's offline consumption is projected to reach 46.5 billion RMB, while Beijing and Guangzhou are expected to see 8.1 billion RMB and 36.4 billion RMB, respectively [17] Tourism and Travel - The Spring Festival is expected to be the largest travel season after National Day and May Day, with daily average spending of 84.6 billion RMB, second only to National Day [19] - The average spending per person during the Spring Festival is projected to be 1,351 RMB, indicating a recovery trend, although it has not yet reached 2019 levels [19] Key Company Announcements and Industry News - The report includes significant announcements from companies such as Zhejiang China Commodity City Group, which appointed new executives [23] - It also notes that the National Bureau of Statistics reported a 1.3% year-on-year increase in retail sales for November 2025, with service retail sales growing by 5.4% from January to November [24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies with strong organizational structures and management capabilities in the beauty and personal care sector, such as Mao Geping and Shangmei [25] - In the gold and jewelry sector, it suggests focusing on high-quality brands like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [25] - For the cross-border e-commerce sector, it highlights the easing of tariff conflicts and the recovery of demand, recommending companies like Xiaoshangpin City and Jiao Dian Technology [25] - In the supermarket and retail sector, it advises monitoring companies like Miniso and Yonghui Supermarket for their reform effectiveness [25]

Group 1 - Investors are shifting focus from overseas central bank monetary policies to domestic policies aimed at promoting consumption and boosting internal demand, leading to strong performance in sectors such as retail, beauty care, and social services [1] - The market experienced volatility with a decrease in trading volume, averaging around 17,000 billion yuan, which is a decline from the previous week [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a pattern of consolidation below the 60-day moving average, indicating market pressure with support levels, and is expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern in the short term [1] Group 2 - The technology sector faced significant declines due to global investor divergence on AI development trends, contributing to overall market volatility [1] - The market's investment enthusiasm has slightly decreased, with a rapid rotation of industry focus observed as the year-end approaches [1] - Major market hotspots were concentrated in the consumer and non-bank financial sectors, while technology stocks led the decline [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.61% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 569.38 million shares and a transaction value of 882.9 billion yuan, representing a 0.05% increase from the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - **Communication**: Up by 3.03%, with a transaction value of 810.58 billion yuan, and leading stock Longxin Bochuang rising by 13.79% [1]. - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Increased by 2.20%, with a transaction value of 585.13 billion yuan, and leading stock Silver Nonferrous rising by 9.85% [1]. - **Comprehensive**: Rose by 2.19%, with a transaction value of 26.43 billion yuan, and leading stock Zhangzhou Development increasing by 10.05% [1]. - **Electronics**: Gained 2.15%, with a transaction value of 1,465.99 billion yuan, and leading stock Kema Technology up by 20.00% [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - **Coal**: Decreased by 0.65%, with a transaction value of 36.19 billion yuan, and leading stock China Coal Energy down by 1.68% [2]. - **Beauty Care**: Fell by 0.43%, with a transaction value of 17.89 billion yuan, and leading stock Jiaheng Home Care down by 4.96% [2]. - **Media**: Also down by 0.43%, with a transaction value of 160.88 billion yuan, and leading stock Bona Film down by 10.03% [2]. Summary of Key Stocks - Leading stocks in the top-performing sectors showed significant gains, such as: - Longxin Bochuang in Communication with a rise of 13.79% [1]. - Kema Technology in Electronics with a rise of 20.00% [1]. - Zhangzhou Development in Comprehensive with a rise of 10.05% [1]. - Conversely, leading stocks in declining sectors experienced notable losses, including: - Bona Film in Media with a drop of 10.03% [2]. - Jiaheng Home Care in Beauty Care with a drop of 4.96% [2].

智通财经APP获悉，华西证券发布研究报告称，复盘历史，A股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需满足以下条 件：合理的估值水平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产业事件催化 或外部风险缓释等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易逆转担忧缓 解，后续人民币汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市亦可以期 待。近期股票型ETF再度大规模净申购，多只宽基ETF成交放量，指向增量资金倾向于逢低布局。 华西证券主要观点如下： 市场回顾：本周全球股指多数下跌，韩国综合指数、恒生科技和日经225指领跌。A股成交再度缩量， 万得全A日均成交额回落至1.76万亿元附近，市场情绪趋于谨慎，主要指数中科创50和创业板指领跌， 资金轮动至红利板块。风格上，金融和消费板块上涨，一级行业中，商贸零售、非银金融、美容护理、 社会服务领涨;成长风格下跌，电子和电力设备指数跌超3%。大宗商品方面，COMEX白银大涨8.7%， 铜铝价格震荡上行，双焦底部反弹。外汇方面，日央行加息落地后，日元对美元汇率走贬，人民币对美 元则延续升值态势。 一、复盘历史，除2021和2022年外， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that most primary industry sectors have shown upward movement, but the growth is generally moderate, with retail, non-bank financials, beauty care, and social services leading the gains due to the increasing importance of domestic demand strategies and related policy expectations [1] - The retail, beauty care, and social service sectors have performed well as a result of the sustained emphasis on domestic demand, while the non-bank financial sector has been boosted by the recovery in brokerage and insurance sectors [1] - Conversely, sectors such as electronics, electrical equipment, and machinery have experienced the largest declines, attributed to profit-taking in the electric equipment sector and a lack of catalysts in the machinery sector [1] Group 2 - In terms of investment direction, defensive low-yield dividend sectors like coal and oil & petrochemicals are recommended for short-term positioning, while non-bank financials should be considered for adjustments to capture market beta opportunities [2] - There is potential for a recovery in cyclical sectors related to domestic demand, such as consumer goods, driven by policy expectations [2] - Growth-oriented sectors, particularly those benefiting from AI and semiconductors, should focus on leading companies with strong earnings certainty, as well as sectors like embodied intelligence and innovative pharmaceuticals that may see progress next year [2]

Market Review - Global stock indices mostly declined this week, with the Korean Composite Index, Hang Seng Tech, and Nikkei 225 leading the losses. A-shares saw a decrease in trading volume, with the average daily turnover of the Wind All A Index falling to approximately 1.76 trillion yuan. Market sentiment has turned cautious, with the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext Index leading the declines, while funds rotated into dividend sectors. In terms of styles, the financial and consumer sectors rose, while growth styles fell, with the electronics and power equipment indices dropping over 3%. In the commodity market, COMEX silver surged by 8.7%, and copper and aluminum prices fluctuated upward, while coking coal rebounded from the bottom. In the foreign exchange market, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the yen depreciated against the dollar, while the renminbi continued to appreciate against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The "Spring Rally" is accumulating positive factors, with a focus on buying on dips. Historically, the initiation of the A-share "Spring Rally" typically requires reasonable valuation levels, a loose liquidity environment, and effective catalysts to boost risk appetite, such as domestic policies, industrial events, or external risk alleviation. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike have been implemented, easing concerns about the reversal of arbitrage trades. The subsequent appreciation of the renminbi is expected to attract foreign capital, and the "good start" of insurance premium income at the beginning of the year is also anticipated to bring incremental insurance funds into the market. Recently, stock ETFs have seen large-scale net subscriptions, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, indicating that incremental funds are inclined to buy on dips [2][5]. Historical Review - A review of history shows that, except for 2021 and 2022, the A-share market has often exhibited a "Spring Rally" calendar effect over the past decade. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the A-share market is in a "vacuum period" for economic data and corporate earnings reports, making it easier for the market to engage in thematic investments based on policy expectations and industrial trends. Since 2016, there have been 8 instances of "Spring Rally" in the A-share market. The timing of these rallies typically starts between December and January and lasts for 20 to 60 trading days [3][4]. Necessary Conditions for "Spring Rally" - The initiation of the "Spring Rally" requires several necessary conditions: 1) A reasonable market valuation range, as the elasticity of the rally is highly correlated with market valuation levels. In the years with the largest index gains during the past decade's Spring Rallies, the market had generally undergone sufficient adjustments beforehand. For instance, at the beginning of 2016, the "circuit breaker" triggered a liquidity feedback shock, leading to a sharp decline in major A-share indices; at the beginning of 2019, after previous declines, the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was only 10 times; and in early February 2024, liquidity shocks from products like Xueqiu and quantitative funds brought the CSI 300 Index's price-to-earnings ratio back to around 10 times [4]. 2) A sustained loose liquidity environment with inflows of incremental funds. For example, in early 2018, the central bank implemented targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts, and in early 2019 and 2020, the central bank conducted comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain macro liquidity. In early 2023, there was a significant inflow of foreign capital, and in early 2025, regulatory authorities are expected to promote the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market [4]. 3) Domestic policies, industrial event catalysts, or external risk alleviation that drive risk appetite upward. For example, in early 2016, supply-side reforms; in early 2019, progress in China-U.S. trade negotiations; in January 2020, the signing of the first-phase trade agreement between China and the U.S.; at the end of 2022, the optimization of epidemic prevention policies and the "three arrows" for real estate; in February 2024, an unexpected reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR); and in early 2025, catalysts from trends in industries like DeepSeek and robotics [4][5]. Accumulating Positive Conditions - Positive conditions for the "Spring Rally" are accumulating, with a focus on buying on dips: 1) In terms of overseas liquidity, the dovish interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan has been implemented, leading to a weaker yen against the dollar and easing pressures from arbitrage trades. The Federal Reserve's expected dovish rate cuts in December are closely tied to the leadership transition, with the overall market expectation for the Fed's policy direction remaining loose [5]. 2) Domestically, the Central Economic Work Conference has set the tone for "continuing to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy," indicating that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [5]. 3) On the micro liquidity front, this week saw large-scale net subscriptions for stock ETFs, with multiple broad-based ETFs experiencing increased trading volume, boosting market sentiment. The anticipated inflow of foreign capital driven by the appreciation of the renminbi and the incremental insurance funds from the "good start" of premium income at the beginning of the year can also be expected [5]. 4) In terms of valuation, the current price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index is 14 times, which is at the 76th percentile since 2010, below the historical median plus one standard deviation [5]. 5) From a policy perspective, the Central Economic Work Conference has laid a positive foundation, with 2026 marking the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and incremental policies in areas such as technological innovation, anti-involution, and expanding domestic demand are expected to continue to be introduced [5]. Industry Allocation Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on: 1) Growth directions benefiting from industrial policy support, such as domestic substitution, robotics, aerospace, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage [5]. 2) Cyclical directions benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as chemicals, energy metals, and resource products [5]. 3) The deepening of consumption-promoting policies may bring short-term catalytic opportunities for the consumer sector [5].

来源：策略李立峰与行业配置笔记 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 投资要点 市场回顾：本周全球股指多数下跌，韩国综合指数、恒生科技和日经225指领跌。A股成交再度缩量， 万得全A日均成交额回落至1.76万亿元附近，市场情绪趋于谨慎，主要指数中科创50和创业板指领跌， 资金轮动至红利板块。风格上，金融和消费板块上涨，一级行业中，商贸零售、非银金融、美容护理、 社会服务领涨；成长风格下跌，电子和电力设备指数跌超3%。大宗商品方面，COMEX白银大涨 8.7%，铜铝价格震荡上行，双焦底部反弹。外汇方面，日央行加息落地后，日元对美元汇率走贬，人 民币对美元则延续升值态势。 市场展望："春季躁动"行情积极因素累积，逢低布局为主。复盘历史，A股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需 满足以下条件：合理的估值水平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂，如国内政策、产 业事件催化或外部风险缓释等。当前来看，海外美联储降息和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易 逆转担忧缓解，后续人民币汇率升值带动的外资增配、年初保费收入"开门红"带来的增量保险资金入市 亦可以期待。近期股票型ETF再度大规模 ...