来源：农民日报 "今年县里推出了'肉牛收入保险'，政府补80%，我自己出20%，既保牛死亡，又保收入，我就毫不犹豫 地参保了。"位于山西省晋中市榆社县，山西省扶贫龙头企业山西牧乐嘉畜牧科技有限公司负责人张晓 斌站在公司现代化牛舍前，望着栏里膘肥体壮的西门塔尔肉牛，脸上露出难得的笑容，去年牛肉价格跌 得厉害，他亏损了不少。 作为全县首批参保企业，张晓斌的1028头肉牛今年起有了"双重保障"，这让他对企业的未来充满信心。 肉牛养殖产业是榆社县乡村振兴的支柱产业，张晓斌的山西牧乐嘉畜牧科技有限公司则是该县肉牛养殖 产业的标杆企业。 "过去最怕两件事，一是牛肉价格跌，二是牛生病，市场波动亏的是我的钱，疫病防控不力要的是肉牛 的命。"张晓斌从事肉牛养殖行业10年，去年受全国畜产品价格低迷影响，他公司出栏的肉牛每头亏损 近1000元。 作为山西重点帮扶县，榆社县政府与太平洋产险山西分公司率先以"政银企户保"五位一体运作模式，创 新推出"肉牛收入保险"产品。即通过政府引导、财政补贴、保险兜底、企业参与、农户受益的协同机 制，用保险兜底的方式为肉牛养殖产业提供全方位保障。 在政银企协同机制下，"牛保险"不仅保收入，还送服务。 ...

Core Insights - The wholesale price of beef in the market has experienced a continuous increase for five consecutive weeks, with a cumulative rise of over 7% since March 2025 [1][2] - The recovery in beef prices is attributed to supply factors, with indications that the domestic beef cattle market may be at a turning point [1][2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is coordinating financial support to stabilize the beef cattle industry and alleviate losses [1][4] Price Trends - The average wholesale price of beef reached 61.62 yuan/kg during the week of April 11-17, 2025, marking a 0.4% increase from the previous week [1] - The wholesale price of white strip beef has also risen from 58.79 yuan/kg to 61.4 yuan/kg over the same period [2] - Despite the recent price increases, the year-on-year comparison shows a decline of 7.4% in the wholesale price [4] Industry Dynamics - The domestic beef cattle inventory has decreased by 4.39% year-on-year, ending a five-year growth trend [2] - The profitability of self-bred beef cattle has improved, with a reported profit of 221.7 yuan per head, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses [2] - The beef cattle farming sector remains fragmented, with a high proportion of small-scale operations, which complicates market dynamics [3] Market Influences - The reduction in beef imports, which fell by 11.6% in the first quarter compared to the previous year, is seen as a stabilizing factor for domestic beef prices [4] - Analysts suggest that the price increase is partly due to farmers holding back on sales, anticipating higher prices [3]

牛肉批发市场周均价环比"五连涨"。 4月21日，农业农村部"全国农产品批发市场价格信息系统"监测数据显示，2025年4月11日至17日的一周时间 里，牛肉批发市场周均价环比继续上涨，连续5周回暖，累计涨幅超过7%。 2025年3月以来，农产品批发市场牛肉价格走势向好，白条牛、活牛价格也回暖，多机构认为考虑供给因素影 响，2025年国内肉牛价格或迎拐点。 农业农村部发展规划司司长陈邦勋4月18日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上表示，肉牛养殖亏损逐步减轻，部分地 区在育肥环节已经扭亏为盈。农业农村部将进一步协调强化财政金融政策支持等，巩固肉牛纾困成效。 受国内供给扩张以及进口牛肉冲击影响，2023—2024年国内牛肉行情持续回落，本土肉牛养殖户和相关企业出 现经营困难。据中国畜牧业协会，2024年出栏一头肉牛的亏损额在千元以上。不过，春节后牛肉价格走势向 好。据农业农村部"全国农产品批发市场价格信息系统"监测，2025年4月11日至17日的一周时间里，牛肉批发市 场周均价为61.62元/公斤，环比上涨0.4个百分点，连续5周小幅上涨，累计涨幅超过7%。 白条牛、活牛价格也在回暖。商务部公布的白条牛批发价同样也连续五周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the beef cattle industry [1] Core Insights - The beef cattle industry in China is expected to experience a significant cycle reversal in 2025, driven by supply adjustments and import controls [6] - The domestic beef market has faced challenges due to low-priced imports, leading to a decline in local beef prices from 2023 to 2024 [3][4] - The supply of beef cattle is anticipated to clear significantly, potentially mirroring the 2019 pig cycle, as the industry is currently in a prolonged state of loss [5][6] Overview: Supply and Demand Analysis - China is the largest beef producer and consumer globally, with a production share of 13% and a consumption share of 19% in 2024 [14] - The domestic beef production is projected to be 7.8 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.25% over the past decade [14] - The beef cattle supply adjustment is notably slower compared to other livestock, with a typical cycle from breeding to market taking around two years [10] Import Outlook - Future beef imports are likely to decrease in volume but increase in price due to domestic supply constraints and international market dynamics [4] - The U.S. is expected to see a reduction in beef cattle inventory, which will support higher local beef prices [4][6] Domestic Supply Outlook - The domestic beef cattle farming structure is highly fragmented, with a significant number of small-scale farmers, leading to inefficiencies [20][54] - The industry is currently experiencing deep losses, with reports indicating a loss of approximately 1,600 yuan per head by late 2024 [22] Conclusion - The report is optimistic about a reversal in the beef cattle cycle starting in 2025, with potential peak prices exceeding 60 yuan/kg, leading to historically high profits for farmers [6]