Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - On September 22, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The current supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure of upstream is not significant. The expected supply contraction has weakened, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. It is necessary to be vigilant about the downstream restocking node and the deadline for Jiangxi mining to submit a reserve report. The trading strategy is to recommend waiting and seeing. [1] Summary by Related Content Futures Market - On September 22, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with September 19, with decreases of 560, 540, 560, and 560 respectively. The trading volume was 396,645 lots (+26,286), and the open interest was 271,624 lots (-9,640). [1] Spot Market - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton compared with September 19. The average prices of battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder lithium hydroxide increased by 80 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, while the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained unchanged. [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 38,909 tons (-575), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and others decreased, while the downstream inventory was tight. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 137,531 tons (-981). [1] Import Data - In August 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 21,469.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.79% and a year - on - year increase of 23.54%. Chile was the largest import source, and Argentina was the second - largest. [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. On the demand side, last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in September, the production of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries remained basically flat last week. In terms of terminal demand, in August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in September. [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The approaching traditional peak season for new energy vehicles and strong energy storage demand, along with continuous destocking of lithium carbonate social inventory, support the futures price. However, the overall increase in production is the main factor suppressing the futures price. Also, there is a need to watch out for potential supply - side speculation in the market due to demand improvement and the reported environmental issues in Qinghai salt lakes [3]. 3. Summary by Category Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 yuan/ton [1][2]. Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 859 yuan, up 44 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) price is 1,150 yuan, up 45 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) price is 1,880 yuan, up 65 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) price is 6,090 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) price is 7,215 yuan, up 90 yuan [1][2]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - Futures contracts such as lithium carbonate 2510, 2511, 2512, 2601, 2602 all showed price increases, with涨幅 ranging from 1.57% to 1.79% [1]. Positive Electrode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,630 yuan, up 10 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 147,050 yuan, up 200 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,000 yuan, up 150 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 124,650 yuan, up 200 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 137,531 tons, a decrease of 981 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 34,456 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 59,495 tons, an increase of 1,216 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,580 tons, a decrease of 440 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 39,484 tons, an increase of 130 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 75,527 yuan, with a profit of - 3,096 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 78,845 yuan, with a profit of - 8,402 yuan [3]. Environmental Issue - Qinghai Chaidamu Xinghua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. was reported for illegally burying a large amount of industrial hazardous waste, and the national special rectification action for illegal dumping and disposal of solid waste has been launched [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts showed a strong - running trend this week. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the strong demand in the domestic energy - storage market, although demand may slow down temporarily after the pre - National Day replenishment ends [1][3] - The price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to conduct arbitrage, and it is suggested to carry out selling hedging for inventory later [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends - This week, the lithium carbonate futures contracts showed a strong - running trend. The 2511 contract closed at 73,960 yuan/ton, up 2,800 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2601 contract closed at 74,040 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price rose 1,050 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton [1] - The SMM spot - futures basis (2511 contract) fell 1,750 yuan/ton to - 460 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was - 255 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2511 - 2601 contract spread was - 80 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - **Raw Materials**: In September, the shipments of Australian mines and Chilean lithium salts increased. In the first three weeks of August and September, Australian mines shipped 213,000/238,000 tons, and Chilean lithium salts shipped 17,000/20,000 tons [2] - **Supply**: The weekly output continued to increase and reached a record high of 20,363 tons. The output before the shutdown of sub - standard plants was 19.98 million tons. The output of spodumene, salt lakes, and recycling effectively made up for the reduction in mica output [2] - **Demand**: Benefiting from the capacity - based electricity price compensation, the domestic energy - storage market exceeded expectations in terms of volume. In August, the energy - storage winning bids reached 25.8 GW, a year - on - year increase of 520%. In September, the lithium - battery output is expected to be 168.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5%, including 130.1 GWh of LFP, a 6% month - on - month increase, and 32.8 GWh of ternary batteries, a 2% month - on - month increase. The 3C consumer end also exceeded expectations [2] - **Inventory**: The weekly lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 137,500 tons. The upstream inventory dropped to an absolute low, while the downstream inventory increased to an absolute high. The number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 39,484 tons [2] 3.3 Market Outlook - The demand in the domestic energy - storage market far exceeds market expectations. Although the lithium - salt output has exceeded the level before the shutdown of sub - standard plants, the social inventory continues to decline, and the price trend shows a strong - fluctuating pattern. After the pre - National Day replenishment ends and the rush - buying demand before September 30 due to the subsidies of the US "Big and Beautiful" Act comes to an end, the demand is expected to slow down temporarily but still remain strong [3] 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: The price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [4] - **Inter - period Trading**: The basis strengthens slightly, but the increase in warehouse receipts is obvious. Arbitrage is not recommended [4] - **Hedging**: As the basis is gradually repaired, it is recommended to conduct selling hedging for inventory later [5]

Core Viewpoint - EVE Energy Co., Ltd. expresses shock and dismay regarding the illegal dumping of hazardous waste by Qinghai Chaidamu Xinghua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd., a company in which it holds a 49% stake, and is in the process of divesting this stake [1][10][16]. Group 1: Company Background and Actions - EVE Energy is currently transferring its 49% stake in Xinghua Lithium Salt, which it acquired for 200 million yuan approximately four years ago [1][10]. - The company announced the sale of its stake to Tibet Shuo Beid Holdings Co., Ltd. for 600 million yuan, indicating a strategic shift to optimize its asset structure and focus on core business [10][18]. - Xinghua Lithium Salt was established in March 2016 and was initially a key project in Qinghai Province, focusing on lithium salt production [4][6]. Group 2: Environmental Incident - Xinghua Lithium Salt has been accused of illegally burying over ten thousand tons of hazardous waste, prompting an investigation by local authorities [1][2]. - The company reportedly attempted to cover up the illegal activities by relocating the waste before an environmental inspection [1][2]. - The hazardous waste dumping site is located near the ecologically sensitive Daban Lake, raising concerns about potential environmental degradation [1][2]. Group 3: Industry Context - China ranks sixth globally in lithium resources, with significant reserves located in salt lakes, particularly in Qinghai and Tibet [5][6]. - The Qinghai region is becoming a major supplier of lithium carbonate, with a nominal production capacity of 179,000 tons from several salt lakes [5][6]. - The provincial government has set ambitious targets for the lithium industry, aiming for a production value of 340 billion yuan by 2025 and 1.2 trillion yuan by 2035 [6].

青海省海西州政府新闻办公室9月19日发布情况通报。 《经济参考报》9月19日刊发报道，青海柴达木兴华锂盐有限公司被举报非法掩埋大量工业危险废物， 上级部门责令其在中央环保督察前"未督先改"，该企业却突击将大量已偷埋的危废挖出并易地填埋，涉 及数量上万吨，对生态环境造成二次伤害。 2025年9月19日，《无视中央环保督察 青海一"矿霸"非法填埋万吨危废》视频、文稿在网络发布后，海 西州委、州政府高度重视，已成立海西州、大柴旦行委调查组赴现场开展核查工作，并调集化工专业人 员进行环境检测，后续将根据核查和检测结果依法依规处理。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing a significant shift, with a notable withdrawal of long positions and a substantial outflow of funds, indicating a change in market sentiment towards this once-booming sector [1][2][3]. Market Dynamics - In the past three weeks, the holding volume and capital flow in the lithium carbonate futures market have changed, with long contracts being quietly closed and a considerable amount of capital leaving the market [1]. - As of September 16, 2025, the benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate in China has dropped to 71,683 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.07%, a month-on-month decline of 11.94%, and a year-on-year drop of 8.33% [1]. Market Sentiment - A large-scale exit of long positions has been observed, with one trading supervisor reporting a 15% loss from closing their remaining long positions, which they deemed a wise decision compared to the risks of holding [2][6]. - On September 10, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures opened significantly lower, reaching a minimum of 68,600 yuan/ton, nearly hitting the limit down, and closing with a drop of over 5% [2][5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The anticipated resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine owned by CATL has heightened market expectations, leading to a shift in supply dynamics [3][12]. - The price of lithium carbonate has been affected by a decrease in production costs, with the cost of purchasing spodumene for lithium carbonate production dropping from 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 65,000 yuan/ton [13]. - In August, China's lithium carbonate production reached a record high of 85,200 tons, contributing to increased supply and downward pressure on prices [14]. Demand Trends - Demand for lithium carbonate is showing signs of weakness, particularly in traditional sectors, with a notable decline in sales of mid-to-low-end electric vehicles [15]. - Despite a slight increase in production from leading battery manufacturers, actual purchasing intentions remain weak, leading to a cautious inventory strategy among companies [15][16]. Market Adjustments - Following the withdrawal of long positions, the market is seeking a new price equilibrium, with expectations that lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate between 65,000 yuan/ton and 80,000 yuan/ton in the near term [18]. - Companies are adjusting their strategies, with some integrating upstream resources and others entering trial production phases for new lithium projects [19]. Technological Innovations - New technologies such as lithium recycling and direct lithium extraction are gaining attention, with companies exploring ways to reduce costs further [21]. - Despite short-term price adjustments, the long-term outlook for the lithium industry remains positive, with projected annual demand growth of over 15% in the next five years [21].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Cuihua Jewelry, has indicated that its subsidiary, Siterui Lithium Industry, primarily produces lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium dihydrogen phosphate, which are essential raw materials for mainstream new energy batteries. The commercialization of solid-state battery technology is still in the development stage, and its specific applications are yet to be observed continuously [1]. Group 1 - The main products of Siterui Lithium Industry include lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium dihydrogen phosphate [1]. - These products are currently the primary raw materials for mainstream new energy batteries [1]. - The solid-state battery technology is still under development, with its commercialization and specific applications pending further observation [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Ganfeng Lithium Group [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in industrial chain prices from the bottom, with new projects and business developments accelerating [1]. - The company is expected to recover profitability in the second half of 2025 due to the rebound in lithium carbonate prices and improving supply-demand dynamics [4][16]. - Ganfeng Lithium is positioned as a leading player in the lithium industry, with a diversified product range and strong project pipeline [6][19]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, Ganfeng Lithium reported revenue of RMB 8.258 billion, a decrease of 13.82% year-on-year, and a net loss of RMB 536 million, which is an improvement of RMB 223 million compared to the previous year [3][15]. - The company anticipates revenue growth to RMB 21.173 billion in 2024, RMB 27.185 billion in 2025, and RMB 33.988 billion in 2026, with net profits projected to turn positive by 2025 [11][12]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 11.4% in 2023 to 15.0% by 2026 [11]. Project Development - The Goulamina spodumene project in Mali has commenced production, and the Cauchari-Olaroz brine project in Argentina is ramping up towards its designed capacity of 40,000 tons per year [5][17]. - The Mariana project in Argentina has also started production, with a designed capacity of 20,000 tons per year for lithium hydroxide [17]. Market Position and Product Range - Ganfeng Lithium has a comprehensive product portfolio that includes over 40 types of lithium compounds and metals, catering to diverse customer needs across various industries [9]. - The company is advancing in solid-state battery technology, with a fully integrated supply chain and commercialization capabilities [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market may pre - price the Fed's probability of restarting interest rate cuts during the September interest rate meeting this week [2]. - The technology sector in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors [2]. - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying [2]. - The Fed's decision may intensify market divergence and increase short - term volatility [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index is weakly volatile [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, driving up steel prices [2]. - Iron ore prices are supported by factors such as resumed shipments, increased hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - The prices of some energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as supply - demand patterns, production maintenance, and inventory changes [2]. - The prices of some agricultural products are influenced by factors like supply, demand, and market sentiment [2]. - Some special and new - energy commodities are affected by factors such as cost, macro - environment, and industry meetings [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The technology mainline in stock index futures has regained strength, and funds are rotating among sectors. If volatility continues to decline, a double - buying strategy for options can be attempted [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures first declined and then rose, with an increasing expectation of central bank bond - buying. A unilateral strategy suggests investors wait and see, and pay short - term attention to changes in the capital market, the equity market, and fundamentals [2]. Precious Metals - Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of easing has been rising, and the US dollar index has fallen to the lowest point of the year. For gold, it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips after the decision. An option double - buying strategy at the strike price of 840 can be tried. Silver has high elasticity above $42, but volatility may rise and then fall after the decision. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The main contract is weakly volatile, and a spread arbitrage between December and October can be considered [2]. Steel and Related Products - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. It is recommended to go long on steel in the short term. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 780 - 850, and short hot - rolled coils. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and short coke. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at dips, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and short coke [2]. Energy and Chemical Products - For crude oil, it is recommended to mainly wait and see unilaterally. For urea, wait and see unilaterally, with a short - term support level of 1630 - 1650 yuan/ton. For PX, it is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in the short term. For PTA, it is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4800 in the short term and conduct a rolling reverse spread between TA1 and TA5. For short - fiber, it has no obvious short - term driver and follows raw materials. For bottle - grade polyester chips, its demand may decline in September, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. For ethylene glycol, wait and see unilaterally and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. For caustic soda, wait and see. For PVC, wait and see. For pure benzene, it follows styrene and oil prices in the short term. For styrene, conduct a rolling low - buying strategy and pay attention to the pressure around 7200, and widen the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level. For synthetic rubber, its price is expected to fluctuate between 11400 - 12500. For LLDPE, it will oscillate between 7150 - 7450 in the short term. For PP, it is slightly bullish. For methanol, conduct range - bound operations between 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, operate the 01 contract in the range of 3000 - 3100. For live pigs, the market is in a weakly volatile pattern. For corn, be cautious about short - selling. For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, observe whether the main contract of palm oil can stabilize above 9500. For sugar, pay attention to the pressure level around 5700 - 5750. For cotton, wait and see unilaterally. For eggs, reduce previous short positions and control positions. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, pay attention to the support at 10700. For soda ash, wait and see [2]. Special and New - Energy Commodities - For glass, wait and see and pay attention to the sentiment of the spot market during the peak season. For rubber, it is in a high - level oscillation due to positive macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon, it is strongly volatile, with the main price fluctuation range expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a net profit of 1.371 billion yuan in Q2 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.371 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter; the non-recurring net profit was 1.365 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company’s potassium chloride production reached approximately 1.0249 million tons in Q2 2025, a 6% increase quarter-on-quarter, while sales remained stable at approximately 886,800 tons [2] - The revenue from potassium chloride business in the first half of 2025 was 5.368 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.55%, with a gross margin of 59.95%, up 6.43 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Lithium Business - In Q2 2025, the company produced 11,500 tons of lithium carbonate, a 35% increase quarter-on-quarter, with sales of 12,500 tons, a 54% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] - The revenue from lithium carbonate business in the first half of 2025 was 1.242 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%, with a gross margin of 49.96%, down 10.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 3: Project Development and Future Outlook - The company is making significant progress on its core projects, with the 40,000 tons/year lithium salt project reaching 71% overall progress and expected to enter trial production by the end of September [2] - The company is actively pursuing exploration in the Qaidam Basin and other regions, while also expanding its resource acquisition channels through cooperation in potassium fertilizer-rich areas [3] - The company has a strong cash position with 19 billion yuan in cash as of Q2 2025, indicating promising dividend expectations and long-term investment value [3]