Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand contradiction of lithium carbonate remains unresolved, and the pattern of weak oscillation may continue. The expansion inertia after the Spring Festival and the current stall in demand dominate the market. The spot market has default news, and there are also some differences within the short - selling funds in the futures market. It may enter a bottom - seeking stage in the short term [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract on May 8 was 64,280 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.19% from the previous day, but it showed an oscillating downward trend in the past five days, dropping from 66,260 yuan/ton to 64,280 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis weakened significantly, reaching 2,120 yuan/ton on May 8, a decrease of 620 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - The position of the main contract decreased for two consecutive days, dropping to 267,396 lots (-3.43%) on May 8, while the trading volume increased significantly by 51.75% to 309,284 lots [2]. - The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 66,400 yuan/ton (-0.75%), and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate also declined. The price center of the industrial chain spot continued to move down [2]. - The prices of downstream products such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.09%, 0.3%, and 1.04% respectively, and the prices of electrolyte and anode materials also weakened [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - In April, the total output of lithium carbonate decreased by 7% month - on - month but remained at a high level. The output of spodumene decreased by 16%, that of lithium mica increased by 4% month - on - month, and the output of salt lakes increased by 10% with the warming of the temperature [3]. - The price of lithium salts forced the mining end to make concessions, and severely hit the smelting demand such as toll - processing. The mining end is currently in a stage of price decline and inventory accumulation [3]. - From April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%; the wholesale volume of manufacturers was 1.142 million units, a year - on - year increase of 41% and a month - on - month increase of 1% [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On May 8, 2025, compared with May 7, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.19%, the basis decreased by 22.63%, the main contract position decreased by 3.43%, and the main contract trading volume increased by 51.75%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.75%, while the prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate remained unchanged. The prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate, power ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1.09%, 0.3%, and 1.04% respectively [6]. - From May 2 to April 25, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.48% [6]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On May 8, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 65,346 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1415 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,250 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 63,600 yuan/ton, both decreasing by 1400 yuan/ton. Due to high inventory and weak downstream procurement, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to fall [7]. - From April 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 728,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%, with a retail penetration rate of 52.3%. The wholesale volume of manufacturers was 846,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 6%, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.9% [8]. 3.5 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those on lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate inventory, lithium carbonate operating rate, and cell selling prices [9][14][17][19][21][22][24][26][28].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing significant price declines, with prices dropping below the previously considered cost line of 70,000 yuan per ton, leading to concerns about supply and demand dynamics in the industry [3][4][7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of May, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has fallen to 65,000 yuan per ton, with futures prices dropping to 63,000 yuan per ton, marking a historical low [3]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is primarily driven by the need for raw material replenishment, but there is a strong resistance from ternary material manufacturers against high-priced lithium salts [4][5]. - The overall production of positive electrode materials is expected to remain stable in May, indicating a lack of strong purchasing willingness from manufacturers [4]. - The energy storage sector is facing pressure due to the cancellation of mandatory storage policies in China and increased tariffs in the U.S., leading to a potential downward adjustment in the expected annual shipment volume of energy storage lithium batteries [6]. Inventory and Production Trends - Lithium carbonate inventory has increased from 108,000 tons to 132,000 tons between March and April, indicating a continued accumulation of stock [7]. - Global lithium carbonate supply is projected to reach 1.55 million tons, an 18% year-on-year increase, with significant contributions from South American salt lakes and African lithium mines [7]. - Despite ongoing production cuts, the supply-demand imbalance persists, particularly affecting high-cost Australian mines, while low-cost lithium salt producers maintain strong shipping intentions [7]. Strategic Adjustments by Lithium Producers - Lithium salt companies are shifting their focus towards low-cost lithium salt sources to enhance profitability, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium aiming to control production costs below 50,000 yuan per ton [8]. - Ganfeng Lithium's Mariana lithium salt lake project is expected to begin stable supply in the second half of 2025, further improving raw material self-sufficiency and reducing production costs [8]. - Zijin Mining has completed the acquisition of Cangge Mining, which specializes in low-cost lithium extraction from salt lakes, utilizing proprietary technology to achieve a lithium recovery rate of over 95% and maintain production costs between 30,000 to 40,000 yuan per ton [9].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-09 库存小幅去化，碳酸锂盘面下跌后小幅反弹 市场分析 2025年5月8日，碳酸锂主力合约2507开于63960元/吨，收于64280元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价收跌0.43%。当 日成交量为309284手，持仓量为267396手，较前一交易日减少9504手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货贴水电碳970 元/吨。所有合约总持仓433977手，较前一交易日减少3011手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加123069手，成 交量增加，整体投机度为0.88 。当日碳酸锂仓单36241手，较上个交易日减少3手。盘面：当日碳酸锂开盘偏弱， 空头短暂主导，尾盘拉升但缺乏持续性，最终收跌0.43%。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月8日电池级碳酸锂报价6.35-6.7万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.14万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.31-6.41万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.14万元/吨。周度产量增长至1.83万吨，环比增加3866吨， 周度库存小幅减少464吨至13.16万吨。碳酸锂现货成交价格重心持续大幅下移。在头部电芯厂客供比例进一步拉高 的情况下，下游材料厂采购意 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a 6-month target price of 15.5 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 was 7.716 billion CNY, a decrease of 35% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 257 million CNY, an increase of 539% year-on-year [1]. - The company's ammonium nitrate and other raw material prices have decreased, contributing to the profitability of the civil explosives business, which saw a net profit of 691 million CNY in 2024, up 24.4% year-on-year [2]. - The lithium business faced challenges due to falling lithium prices, resulting in a combined net loss of approximately 500 million CNY for its subsidiaries in 2024 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.537 billion CNY, a decrease of 14% quarter-on-quarter and 17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 82 million CNY, down 20% quarter-on-quarter but up 452% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit for 2024 was 1.289 billion CNY, with the civil explosives sector contributing 1.233 billion CNY, a 14% increase year-on-year, while the lithium business reported a slight loss [1]. - The company expects revenues of 8.926 billion CNY, 10.800 billion CNY, and 11.181 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 738 million CNY, 950 million CNY, and 1.197 billion CNY [7]. Business Segment Insights - The civil explosives business is expanding its market presence and reducing costs, with a focus on overseas mining services, particularly in Zimbabwe and Australia [2]. - The lithium segment is seeing significant increases in production and sales volumes, with lithium salt production and sales reaching 48,300 tons and 48,000 tons respectively in 2024, up 55% and 63% year-on-year [3]. - The company is enhancing its self-sufficiency in lithium production with the Kamativi Phase II project, which is expected to further reduce reliance on external mineral purchases [3].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market is experiencing significant price declines due to seasonal demand drops and insufficient capacity reduction, leading to oversupply in the industry [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The lithium carbonate futures contract for May 8 hit a new low of 63,200 yuan per ton, approaching the cost line for integrated mining companies [1] - In 2024, domestic production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium chloride is projected to reach 701,000 tons, 414,000 tons, and 24,000 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 35.35%, 29.54%, and 37.14% [3] - The average capacity utilization rate of 12 sample companies in the lithium sector was estimated at 65.4%, remaining at a relatively high historical level [1][3] Group 2: Company Performance - Among the 12 sample companies, only three, including Cangge Mining, are expected to see slight production declines, while the other nine are projected to increase output [1][3] - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Yahua Group are expected to see varying degrees of production increases [3] - Ganfeng Lithium's total lithium salt capacity is around 300,000 tons, but its actual utilization rate may only be about 56% when excluding recently completed projects [5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite some Australian mines announcing production cuts, domestic lithium salt production continues to grow, outpacing demand growth, which complicates the supply-demand relationship [5] - The industry is still in a "tug-of-war" state without self-regulatory production cuts, unlike the steel and photovoltaic sectors [1] Group 4: Strategic Responses - Companies are adopting cost-reduction strategies in response to the "low lithium price era," with Ganfeng Lithium accelerating the development of low-cost salt lake projects [6][8] - Zhongmin Resources has diversified its operations to mitigate risks, planning to complete a copper mining project by 2026 [9][10] - Cangge Mining's net profit decline of only 24.6% in 2024 was significantly supported by investment income from its copper business, highlighting the benefits of diversification [9]

碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月7日电池级碳酸锂报价6.525-6.805万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.045万元/ 吨，工业级碳酸锂报价6.45-6.55万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.04万元/吨。部分锂盐企业陆续检修或减产，周度产 量环比继续小幅下降，但整体来看，减产力度不及预期，碳酸锂产量仍处于高位，减产难以对供需过剩格局造成 实质性改变。工电价差进一步收窄，根据SMM调研，五一假期结束，上下游普遍处于观望态度，市场成交寥寥。 且在价格持续落入新低的趋势下，下游亦等待价格的进一步下探，持续观望。虽矿价也在同步下跌，但上游锂盐 厂的亏损程度并未有所好转，其碳酸锂出货意愿较差。当前更多是贸易商因担心后市，目前出货意愿较强。4月动 力终端需求表现较好，但部分储能订单受到一定影响，一方面是由于国内强制配储要求取消，另一方面是受到美 国增加关税导致的需求有小幅下滑。5月储能市场需求将继续受到美国关税政策和国内取消强制配储的影响，小幅 减量；但动力市场仍有较好表现，预计5月电芯排产整体保持增量，磷酸铁锂材料5月产量也将增加。 策略 整体来看，现货成交重心下移，带动矿价下跌，锂盐虽有检修，但矿端未见减产，过 ...

Group 1: Company Strategy and Product Development - The company emphasizes the development of ancient gold as a key direction, integrating traditional craftsmanship with modern design to create innovative products [1] - The company is expanding its children's jewelry product line in response to market opportunities from birth policies, enhancing brand promotion through collaborations and targeted advertising [2] - The company aims to improve its brand image and market competitiveness by leveraging traditional craftsmanship in its ancient gold products [1][2] Group 2: Financial Management and Risk Mitigation - The company has established a comprehensive risk management system for raw material procurement and inventory management, utilizing a "borrowed gold" model to optimize funding efficiency [3] - The company employs dynamic monitoring mechanisms to adjust gold inventory levels based on market trends and production needs, ensuring operational stability [3] - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Siterui Lithium Industry, which focuses on lithium salt products, to diversify its business portfolio [4] Group 3: Market Conditions and Performance - Recent increases in international gold prices have influenced the retail prices of gold jewelry, with the company adjusting prices in line with market conditions [2] - The company reports steady sales of gold jewelry, with some categories experiencing demand growth due to consumer upgrading trends [2] - The company acknowledges that Siterui Lithium Industry has faced losses due to falling lithium carbonate prices but is working on improving production processes and expanding capacity to enhance market competitiveness [5]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals and Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report [2] - Report Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Xu Liang [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core Views Precious Metals - Shanghai Gold (SHFE) showed a high - level oscillating and回调 trend. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate offset part of the upward transmission effect of international gold prices, and the post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand made SHFE gold weaker than overseas markets. With multiple factors in play, SHFE gold will maintain an oscillating pattern [4]. Copper - Copper prices are affected by macro, sentiment, and expectations. In the short term, the absolute price of copper is difficult to predict, but volatility will remain high [16]. Zinc - Given the supply and demand situation and weak macro data, zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate in the short term. Alumina is likely to continue its weak performance due to an oversupply situation and bearish market sentiment [46]. Nickel - The nickel market remains stable in terms of fundamentals, with no significant changes in logic. The nickel market lacks obvious upward drivers [66]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to continue their narrow - range oscillation in the short term as the impact of macro factors on the fundamentals is not yet evident [80]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium salt prices are falling, and there is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and salt prices. Trade uncertainties may suppress long - term demand [91]. Silicon - With prices in the silicon industry chain falling, downstream polysilicon production cuts are more likely, and the supply side of industrial silicon is also showing signs of adjustment [99]. 4. Content Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Price Performance**: SHFE gold showed high - level oscillation and回调, affected by factors such as the RMB exchange rate and domestic consumption demand [4]. - **Influencing Factors**: The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, post - holiday decline in domestic physical consumption demand, and multiple macro - factors contribute to the current situation of SHFE gold [4]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term volatility remains high. The latest prices of various copper contracts are provided, with daily price changes and percentage changes [16][17]. - **Influencing Factors**: Macro factors (US non - farm employment data and Sino - US tariff issues), market sentiment (disputes between bulls and bears), and policy expectations (upcoming financial policies) all impact copper prices [16]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: Zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend. The latest prices of various zinc contracts and related price differences are presented [35][36]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply is expected to be loose due to the opening of the import window, and demand is supported by domestic policies but with unclear strength. Weak macro data also affects zinc prices [35]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price Performance**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate, and alumina is likely to be weak. The latest prices of aluminum and alumina contracts are provided [46][47]. - **Influencing Factors**: For aluminum, macro factors and demand seasonality are key. For alumina, the supply of bauxite, production capacity changes, and market sentiment are important [46]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: The nickel market lacks upward drivers. The latest prices of nickel and stainless - steel contracts and related data are given [66][67]. - **Influencing Factors**: The slow release of nickel ore supply, the continuous decline in nickel - iron prices, and the weak stainless - steel market all contribute to the current situation [66]. Tin - **Price Performance**: Tin prices are in a narrow - range oscillation. The latest prices of tin contracts are provided [80]. - **Influencing Factors**: Uncertainty about Myanmar's复产 and the semiconductor industry cycle affect tin prices [80]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: Lithium salt prices are falling, and the market is cautious. The latest prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts and related price differences are presented [91]. - **Influencing Factors**: Market sentiment, cost - side changes, and trade uncertainties impact lithium carbonate prices [91]. Silicon - **Price Performance**: The prices of industrial silicon and related products in the silicon industry chain are falling. The latest prices of industrial silicon contracts and spot prices are provided [99][100]. - **Influencing Factors**: Expected production cuts in downstream polysilicon and supply - side adjustments in industrial silicon affect prices [99].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in lithium carbonate futures prices, with the main contract falling below 65,000 yuan per ton, reaching a historical low, driven by a combination of factors including weak demand and oversupply in the market [1][2] - The spot prices for lithium carbonate have dropped across the board, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reported at 65,350 yuan per ton, down 600 yuan in a single day, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate at 64,100 yuan per ton, reflecting a broader downward trend in the industry [1] - The cost side is collapsing, as major domestic and international mines have not seen further production cuts, and first-quarter financial reports indicate a decline in costs, allowing for further price reductions in lithium salts [1][2] Group 2 - The supply-demand imbalance is deepening, with expectations of a month-on-month increase in domestic lithium carbonate production in May, while high inventory levels are suppressing price rebound potential [2] - The industry is undergoing a significant reshuffle, with prices below 70,000 yuan impacting the cost lines of many companies, leading to a focus on cash flow management and resource control as key survival strategies [2] - The technical outlook remains bearish, with price movements following a downward channel, and multiple institutions agree that under the pressures of collapsing costs, increased supply, and weak demand, lithium carbonate prices are likely to remain under pressure [2]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-07 整体商品情绪偏弱，碳酸锂盘面创新低 策略 整体来看，现货成交重心下移，带动矿价下跌，锂盐虽有检修，但矿端未见减产，过剩格局并未改变。当前成交 仍以刚需为主。新仓单注册量较多，仓单持续增加，在宏观情绪及基本面偏弱格局下，锂价或仍有下跌空间。 单边：逢高卖出套保 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年5月6日电池级碳酸锂报价6.57-6.85万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.085万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.49-6.59万元/吨，较前一交易日下跌0.08万元/吨。部分锂盐企业陆续检修或减产，周度产量环 比继续小幅下降，但整体来看，减产力度不及预期，碳酸锂产量仍处于高位，减产难以对供需过剩格局造成实质 性改变。进入5月，碳酸锂供需均有一定增量，但供应量级仍强于需求，预计碳酸锂将持续过剩。虽当前下游排产 稳步向上，但由于目前材料厂客供比例较一季度有所提升，使得下游材料厂的采买需求并未有明显改善，现货市 场成交相对冷清。碳酸锂持续过剩下，叠加当前矿石价格亦存下跌趋势，难对碳酸锂价格形成向上支撑。 期权：卖出虚值看涨或熊市价差期权 风险 市 ...