↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 2026年的第一天，大家新年好。 回顾2025，A股书写多项纪录，时隔10年， 上证指数盘中突破4000点大关；超500股涨逾100%，最高涨幅超过18倍！ 美股 标普500指数涨16%，纳斯达克指数涨20%，年线均实现三连涨。 贵金属大涨，黄金大涨超60%，白银大涨超140%。 展望2026，行情是否会持续演绎，又有哪些机会可以关注？ 01 A股书写多项纪录 超500只个股翻倍 2025年10月28日，上证指数盘中突破4000点大关，这是自2015年8月以来的首次。截至12月31日收官，上证指数最终报收3968.84点，录得11 连阳，年线上涨18.41%，创2020年以来的最佳年度表现。 纵观全年， A股书写多项纪录：全部A股总计成交量为29.92万亿股，创历年新高；总计成交额为419.86万亿元，历史首次突破400万亿元，较 2024年（257.01万亿元）放量63%。 Wind数据显示，2025年共有4230只股票全年累计上涨，其中540只股票累计涨幅在100%以上，127只股票 累计涨幅超200%，10只股票累计涨 幅超500%。 全年累计涨幅前十股票分别为上纬 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the remarkable performance of the Yongying Technology Smart Selection Fund, managed by Ren Jie, achieving a unit net value growth rate of 233.29%, making it the top-performing fund in the public offering market for 2025, surpassing the previous record held for 17 years [1][3] - The fund, established on October 30, 2024, reached a scale of 11.521 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, with 91.59% of its total assets invested in stocks, primarily focused on the global cloud computing industry and key sectors like optical communication and PCB [3][10] - Ren Jie emphasizes that the current market rally is underpinned by a more solid foundation than in the past, driven by internal changes in the Chinese economy, with new productive forces becoming a new engine for economic growth [9][10] Group 2 - The investment strategy of Ren Jie is characterized by a focus on capturing "changes" in the market, relying on deep research to understand industry dynamics and company fundamentals, rather than short-term market sentiments [5][7] - Ren Jie transitioned from traditional industry classifications to a trend-based investment framework, allowing for a broader understanding of technological advancements and cross-industry opportunities, particularly in AI and cloud computing [6][10] - The article notes that the global cloud computing industry remains a key area of focus, with significant developments in AI models and their commercialization, indicating a potential for higher investment levels in the sector [10][11] Group 3 - Ren Jie advises that any risk asset is not guaranteed to rise indefinitely, urging investors to manage their expectations and understand the risk-return profile of the funds they invest in [4][12] - Recommendations for investors include implementing risk control measures before making investment decisions, diversifying investments to mitigate risks, and avoiding attempts to predict short-term market fluctuations [13] - The article underscores the importance of a rational approach to investment, particularly in high-growth sectors, and emphasizes the need for investors to be aware of the inherent volatility associated with such investments [4][12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable performance of the Yongying Technology Smart Selection Fund, managed by Ren Jie, which achieved a unit net value growth rate of 233.29%, making it the top-performing fund in the market for 2025 and setting a new record for annual returns in public funds [2][4]. Fund Performance and Structure - The Yongying Technology Smart Selection Fund was established on October 30, 2024, and had a scale of 11.521 billion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, with 91.59% of its total assets invested in stocks [4]. - The fund's top ten holdings are concentrated in the global cloud computing industry, covering key areas such as optical communication and PCB, indicating a clear investment style with high industry concentration [4]. Investment Philosophy - Ren Jie emphasizes that the foundation of the current market rally is more solid than in the past, driven by internal changes in the Chinese economy, with new productive forces becoming a new engine for economic growth [5][12]. - The core of investment lies in capturing "changes," which are reflected in performance and valuation changes, with a focus on long-term industry and company evolution rather than short-term market emotions [9][10]. Research and Strategy - Ren Jie's investment approach is characterized by deep research and a focus on industry trends rather than traditional sector classifications, allowing for a better understanding of cross-industry opportunities [8][9]. - The investment strategy includes dynamic adjustments based on market conditions, valuation levels, and industry signals, aiming to participate fully in uptrends while effectively managing drawdowns during corrections [9][10]. Future Outlook - The global cloud computing industry is expected to remain a key area of focus, with AI models seeing increased value and potential adjustments in business models, indicating a robust growth trajectory [13][14]. - The domestic computing power industry is anticipated to develop significantly by 2026, with a focus on the alignment of models and computing architectures, creating more opportunities within the industry chain [14]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to prioritize risk control before making investment decisions, as 90% of risk management occurs prior to investment actions [17]. - A diversified investment approach is recommended to mitigate risks associated with high-volatility products, and investors should avoid attempting to predict short-term market fluctuations [17].

2025年A股收官，十大牛股新鲜出炉，"科技牛"成全年关键词，上纬新材以全年18倍涨幅的绝对优势成为2025年股王，天普股份以1662%）涨幅位居 第二，*ST宇顺（719%）、*ST亚振（636%）紧随其后，CPO概念人气股胜宏科技（588%）排在第五。 4. *ST亚振 现价(元) 总市值(亿) 45.16 118.7 家居、小金属 2025年涨幅:前复权 2025.01.02-2025.12.31 636% 5. 胜宏科技 总市值(亿) 现价(元) 2503 287.58 PCB、CPO 2025年涨幅:前复权 2025.01.02-2025.12.31 588% 6. 飞沃科技 现价(元) 总市值(亿) 168.37 126.6 商业航天、风电 2025年涨幅:前复权 2025.01.02-2025.12.31 581% 7. 鼎泰高科 现价(元) 总市值(亿) 139.1 570.3 PCB 2025年涨幅:前复权 2025.01.02-2025.12.31 579% 8. 菲林格尔 总市值(亿) 现价(元) 31.62 112.4 智能家居 2025年涨幅:前复权 2025.01.02-2025. ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The top ten stocks of 2025 have all seen price increases exceeding 500%, with the highest being a staggering 1821% for Shangwei New Materials [3][7] - The surge in stock prices is primarily driven by advancements in technology, particularly in computing power, with significant contributions from companies involved in robotics and AI [3][11] Group 2: Individual Stock Performances - Shangwei New Materials has transformed from a traditional chemical materials company to a key player in the robotics industry, benefiting from national policies supporting humanoid robot innovation, resulting in a 23.73% year-on-year revenue growth and a 49.66% increase in net profit for Q3 [7] - Tianpu Co., Ltd. ranks second with a 1662% increase, driven by the TPU theme and expectations surrounding the acquisition by Zhonghao Xinying, with a notable rise in stock price following the positive developments in domestic computing power [11] - *ST Yushun and *ST Yazhen follow with increases of 719% and 636% respectively, indicating a strong performance among ST stocks [3][6] - Shenghong Technology, with a 588% increase, has capitalized on the demand for AI-driven PCB products, reporting a 324% increase in net profit for the first three quarters [12]

Core Viewpoint - The liquid cooling industry, while part of the computing ecosystem alongside optical modules and PCBs, has a less robust business model and profitability. However, it has significant potential for penetration, particularly in high-density AI clusters, where current overall penetration is low, projected to reach about 20%-25% by 2025 [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Optical modules and PCBs are essential components of server and switch infrastructure, with nearly 100% penetration rates, while liquid cooling is only a necessity in high-density AI clusters [1]. - The revenue recognition for optical modules and PCBs is quick and has a short cycle, whereas liquid cooling projects typically have a lag of over six months due to the need for infrastructure setup [1]. - The standardization and mass production of optical modules and PCBs lead to stable and high gross margins, while liquid cooling faces challenges due to customization and project-based sales, resulting in lower gross margins [2]. Group 2: Key Companies - **Inspur**: A leading domestic liquid cooling company with a comprehensive solution covering cold plates, CDU, and system integration, benefiting from partnerships with major players like NVIDIA and Intel. It is positioned to gain from the AI high-density computing cooling market, although its valuation may be stretched with a PB exceeding 30x [2]. - **Tongfei Co., Ltd.**: A specialized enterprise transitioning to data center liquid cooling, with a dual-path approach in cold plate and immersion cooling, aiming for significant growth in AI computing infrastructure and energy storage [3]. - **Yidong Electronics**: Entering the AI server liquid cooling market in 2024, it aims to integrate connectors and liquid cooling solutions, achieving significant revenue milestones in 2025 [4]. - **Dingtong Technology**: Focused on integrated connector and liquid cooling modules, it is set to ramp up production and gross margin potential in the coming years [5]. - **Siquan New Materials**: Specializing in high thermal conductivity materials for AI server cooling, it is expected to enter a critical phase of mass delivery and certification by 2025 [6]. - **Zhongshi Technology**: Engaged in thermal management materials and AI server cooling solutions, it is expanding its production capacity and is expected to see significant order and margin growth [7]. - **Feirongda**: With a focus on electromagnetic shielding and thermal management, it is positioned for significant delivery and expansion in the AI server cooling market [8]. - **Dongyangguang**: Following a comprehensive approach in liquid cooling, it is set to enter a critical phase of delivery and overseas expansion [9]. - **Juhua Co., Ltd.**: Leveraging its fluorochemical expertise, it is positioned as a key player in the liquid cooling market, focusing on domestic replacement and overseas expansion [10]. - **Qiangrui Technology**: Engaged in integrated solutions for testing equipment, it is expected to achieve significant breakthroughs in delivery and ecosystem integration by 2025 [11].

Market Overview - The global precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with spot silver fluctuating from a +6% increase to a -8% decrease, and spot gold dropping over 4%. Shanghai silver futures closed down more than 8% [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's announcement of a comprehensive increase in metal futures contracts has drawn market attention amid this substantial adjustment [1] Digital Currency Developments - The People's Bank of China has introduced a major upgrade to the digital yuan, set to be implemented on January 1, 2024. Key features include interest payments on digital yuan wallet balances and the inclusion of digital yuan in the reserve requirement framework for banking institutions [2] Regulatory Environment - The State Administration for Market Regulation has outlined key tasks for 2026, focusing on enhancing fair competition governance, strengthening antitrust enforcement, and addressing "involution" competition. The aim is to improve the quality of business entities and protect intellectual property rights [3] Tariff Adjustments - China will implement a temporary import tariff lower than the most-favored-nation rate on 935 items starting in 2026. This includes reductions on key components, advanced materials, and certain medical products [4] Investment Insights - CITIC Securities indicates that a year-end market rally has begun, emphasizing the importance of sectors with growth catalysts, particularly non-ferrous metals and AI computing [5] - Everbright Securities notes that while the market shows signs of overheating, there are no clear signals of a bull market peak [5] - Dongfang Securities observes that the market is gradually building upward momentum, with emerging hotspots, suggesting the year-end rally may continue [5] Policy Focus in Healthcare - Shanghai has announced plans to expand service consumption by promoting advanced technologies such as cell therapy and brain-machine interfaces, with a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical sector driven by innovation [6] Robotics Industry Insights - Huawei is increasing investment in the humanoid robot sector, with institutions optimistic about the supply chains in the robotics industry, particularly in embodied intelligence applications [7] Passive Component Market Trends - Major passive component manufacturers are set to raise prices on certain products starting next year, indicating a potential improvement in industry conditions driven by AI advancements in the PCB sector [8]

Market Overview - On December 29, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.38%. The STAR 50 increased by 0.04%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.15%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.66%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.71% [4][5]. - The best-performing industries on December 29 were Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.48%), Defense & Military (+1.43%), Banking (+1.03%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry & Fishery (+0.71%), and Automotive (+0.41%). The worst-performing industries included Nonferrous Metals (-1.95%), Utilities (-1.24%), Electric Equipment (-1.13%), Building Materials (-1.11%), and Food & Beverage (-1.06%) [4][5]. - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on December 29 was 21,577 billion yuan, with net outflow of southbound funds amounting to 3.414 billion HKD [4][5]. Key Recommendations - The report focuses on the company Xingsen Technology (002436), highlighting its comprehensive PCB product system and meticulous process capabilities [6]. - The driving factors for the company include the upgrade of PCB processes driven by AI, leading to an expanding market space. Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 7,150.01 million yuan, 8,920.01 million yuan, and 11,250.01 million yuan, with growth rates of 22.91%, 24.76%, and 26.12% respectively. Net profits are expected to be 154.57 million yuan, 435.16 million yuan, and 830.26 million yuan, with growth rates of -181.52%, 90.79%, and 90.79% respectively [6][8]. - The catalysts for growth include the AI-driven upgrade of PCB processes [6]. Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to see innovation breakthroughs and favorable policy changes leading to a turning point in the sector's fundamentals. The report notes that the market lacks further catalysts for the pharmaceutical sector [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued innovation in drugs and medical devices, driven by improved payment and access policies for innovative drugs and traditional Chinese medicine [9]. - The beauty and personal care industry is characterized by intense competition and increasing differentiation. The report suggests that structural opportunities should be seized, particularly for emerging brands and products [10].

Key Points Summary Industry Overview - The focus is on the semiconductor and computing power industries, particularly in the context of domestic substitution and advancements in technology [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Domestic Substitution Acceleration**: Domestic equipment manufacturers are enhancing capabilities and expanding cooperation, significantly increasing the domestic substitution rate in semiconductor equipment, especially in applications at the semiconductor level [1]. - **Surge in Computing Power Demand**: Applications such as mobile phones and smart terminals are driving a surge in computing power demand, with liquid cooling and power systems becoming critical components [1][6]. - **Catalysts for Overseas Computing Power Supply Chain**: The overseas computing power supply chain is expected to experience multiple catalysts in Q1 2026, with Nvidia's COWS wafer production capacity projected to grow by 60%-70% in 2026 and by 50%-60% in 2027 [1][7]. - **Profit Forecast for Zhongji Xuchuang**: Market expectations for Zhongji Xuchuang's profit in 2026 are around 35 billion to 40 billion RMB, potentially doubling to 70 billion to 80 billion RMB if Nvidia and Google maintain high growth in 2027 [1][9]. - **Focus on Large Models**: The market is particularly interested in OpenAI's GPT and XAI's Grok large models, with expectations that a new generation of large models will be released in Q1 2026, which could validate the Scaling Law [2][10]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Investment Targets in North America**: Recommended investment targets include optical module-related companies such as NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, Yuanjie Technology, and Tianfu Communication, with NewEase showing significant potential due to its relatively small stock price increase [4][11]. - **Liquid Cooling System Price Increase**: The price of liquid cooling systems corresponding to Nvidia's GT300 chip is approximately $1,500, which is expected to rise to $4,000 with the upgrade to Ruby 200, indicating a clear logic of simultaneous price and volume increase [4][12]. - **Key Subfields in the Semiconductor Industry**: Notable subfields include measurement detection, coating and developing, packaging equipment, and materials, with significant market potential due to low penetration rates [5]. - **Future Trends in Computing Power**: The computing power sector is expected to be a major focus over the next three to ten years, with critical supporting facilities like liquid cooling and power systems [6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The highest certainty investment directions in the overseas computing power supply chain include the optical module industry, with a focus on NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, Yuanjie Technology, and Tianfu Communication, as well as the liquid cooling sector led by Yingweike [13].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: PCB and Liquid Cooling PCB Industry Insights - The PCB drill needle market is experiencing strong demand and stable prices, driven by technological innovations and the application of new materials like Q fabric [1][2] - Companies like DingTai High-Tech are actively expanding production capacity, planning to increase monthly output from 120 million to 200 million units by the end of 2026 [2] - The industry is characterized by an oligopoly, primarily led by DingTai and Jingzhou, with price strategies focusing on product structure upgrades rather than uniform price increases [5] - Tungsten prices have surged by 147% from the beginning of the year to mid-December, impacting the cost structure of PCB manufacturers [5] - DingTai has begun negotiations for price increases of 10% to 15% with small and medium-sized clients due to rising tungsten costs [5][6] Liquid Cooling Market Developments - The liquid cooling sector is witnessing a second wave of growth, with the GB300 full liquid cooling solution expected to expand market space fivefold compared to this year [8][10] - Major tech companies like Google are adopting full liquid cooling solutions, increasing demand significantly [8] - The Pearl River Delta manufacturing sector is transitioning towards AI, with several companies acquiring assets to integrate the liquid cooling supply chain [9] - Companies such as Siquan New Materials are positioned to benefit from the growth in the testing cold plate market, with expected revenues in the range of 2 to 3 billion yuan in 2026 [12] Key Companies and Their Strategies - **DingTai High-Tech**: Plans to double production capacity and has initiated price negotiations due to rising material costs [2][5] - **Siquan New Materials**: Expected to see significant revenue growth due to its unique position in the testing equipment sector and partnerships with major clients like Alibaba [12] - **Hongfu Han**: Anticipates receiving approximately 600 million yuan in liquid cooling orders from Alibaba in 2026, with ongoing engagements with major clients like Meta and Amazon [13] - **Yidong Electronics**: Recently expanded capabilities through acquisitions, maintaining optimistic revenue forecasts for the upcoming year [15] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The PCB industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on technological advancements and capacity expansion [2][4] - The liquid cooling market is projected to grow significantly, driven by increasing demand from major tech companies and ongoing industry consolidation [10][11] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in Tier one companies directly linked to major clients, as they are expected to achieve rapid growth [11][20] Additional Insights - The domestic PCB manufacturers are adopting a conservative approach to new materials while accelerating capacity expansion to meet market demands [4] - The competitive landscape in the PCB industry is tightening, with companies closely monitoring each other's pricing strategies and production plans [5] - The liquid cooling market is becoming increasingly competitive, with domestic companies poised to capture more market share as they integrate and expand [9][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments within the PCB and liquid cooling industries, highlighting key players, market trends, and future growth opportunities.