全球市场波动中，外贸人既要迎战挑战，也要把握新机遇。本文将为外贸从业者带来最新的国际国内要闻、市场动态及风险预警，涵盖经济、政治、金融等 多个领域。 最新！美国对多国加征"对等关税"详细总表！最高50%，你出口的国家中招了吗？中国制造网 Global Pay Pro 上一交易日17:00美元兑人民币： 7.1707（市场参考价：7.1559） 02 国内见闻 宏观政策与经济运行 贸易与外贸动向 行业与地方发展 0 1 国际要闻 国际贸易与关税动向 黄仁勋宣布美国批准 H20 芯片销往中国。 阿根廷政府允许以已预付国家税抵扣进口关税。 美国对三氯乙烯（TCE）全面禁令或将于 8 月 19 日正式生效。 美国对俄罗斯威胁征收 100% 关税。 欧盟准备对 720 亿欧元美国商品征收反制关税。 欧盟委员会委员谢夫乔维奇 7 月 14 日表示，若美欧贸易谈判失败，将对 720 亿欧元美国商品征收额外反制关税。 巴西 7 月 14 日成立 "谈判与经贸对策委员会"，评估美国对巴西征收 50% 关税的影响，15 日将与工业和农业部门举行会议。 美国商务部 7 月 14 日宣布，对大部分墨西哥进口番茄征收 17.09% 反 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rebound in the first half of 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 20%, leading among major global indices [1] - The primary driver of this rebound was the substantial inflow of mainland funds through the "Hong Kong Stock Connect" channel, coupled with a global reassessment of the value of "cheap Chinese assets" [1] - The net inflow of southbound funds reached over 730 billion HKD, marking a 414% increase year-on-year and setting a historical record for the same period [3][5] Market Dynamics - The total trading volume through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 4.8 trillion HKD, a 50% increase compared to the previous year, accounting for 19% of the total trading volume in the Hong Kong market [2][3] - Southbound funds have significantly reshaped the investor structure in the Hong Kong market, with their proportion of total trading volume rising from less than 10% in 2020 to nearly 20% [4] - The inflow of southbound funds has enhanced the correlation between the Hong Kong and A-share markets, while also increasing the independence of the Hong Kong market from global trends [4] Sector Preferences - The southbound funds showed a clear preference for high-dividend and innovative pharmaceutical sectors, with energy, telecommunications, and banking being the top three sectors for net buying [6][7] - The energy sector attracted a net buying of 620 million HKD, while telecommunications and banking received 410 million HKD and 380 million HKD, respectively [6][7] - The innovative pharmaceutical index saw significant gains, with some stocks experiencing over 60% increases, reflecting a strong recovery after a prolonged downturn [6][8] Investment Trends - The current market environment is characterized by a "barbell strategy," where investors are seeking both stable cash flow from high-dividend assets and growth potential from innovative sectors [10][16] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to further highlight the defensive value of high-dividend sectors, while the commercialization capabilities of innovative pharmaceutical companies will be crucial for growth stocks [16] - The semiconductor, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy security sectors are expected to benefit from policy support and sustained inflows from mainland funds [17] Notable Stocks - The top-performing stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect included Lao Pu Gold, which saw a staggering increase of 330.18%, followed by Sangfor Technologies and Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals with increases of 288.98% and 278.12%, respectively [11][12] - The presence of diverse sectors among the top gainers indicates a broad market interest, with biotechnology leading the way [11][12] - Stocks like Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals have gained significant institutional recognition, with over 50% of holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [13]

Core Viewpoint - The proposed "Graham Bill" aims to impose a 500% punitive tariff on goods from countries like China and India that continue to import energy from Russia without aiding Ukraine, which could significantly impact global economic markets and energy dynamics [1][3][11]. Group 1: Legislative Proposal and Support - Senator Lindsey Graham introduced the "Graham Bill" on July 7, 2025, which has reportedly garnered support from 82 to 84 senators, indicating a strong legislative foundation [1][3]. - The bill targets countries that import Russian energy while not providing assistance to Ukraine, specifically naming China and India as primary targets [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Implications - China and India are major buyers of Russian oil, with China importing an average of 1.96 million barrels per day (17% of its total imports) and India reaching a historical high of 2.1 million barrels per day (nearly 40% of its total imports) [3]. - If the bill is enacted, it could severely disrupt the global energy market, potentially pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel and triggering inflation crises worldwide [11][19]. Group 3: Diplomatic Reactions - India has expressed its reliance on Russian energy and hopes for U.S. understanding, while China has firmly rejected any external interference in its energy cooperation with Russia [5][7]. - The U.S. government's internal divisions regarding the bill's support suggest a cautious approach, with the White House opting to observe market reactions before committing [17]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - The bill is viewed as a "double-edged sword," as its implementation could lead to significant repercussions not only for Russia but also for the U.S. economy and its allies [11][19]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with both China and Russia accelerating their "de-dollarization" efforts, increasing the use of their currencies in energy transactions, which could undermine the U.S. dollar's dominance [9][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential sanctions the U.S. may impose on Russia if a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine is not reached within 50 days, specifically targeting third countries like China and India that purchase Russian oil and gas [1][2]. Group 1: Sanctions and Trade Implications - Trump announced that if Russia does not reach a ceasefire agreement within 50 days, the U.S. will impose a 100% "secondary tariff" on third countries purchasing Russian oil and gas, specifically mentioning China and India as targets [1][2]. - The U.S. Congress is planning to vote on additional sanctions against Russia, which could include tariffs as high as 500% on imports of Russian oil and gas from third countries [1][2]. - The sanctions aim to pressure China and India to cut trade ties with Russia, as they have not joined the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe [2]. Group 2: Military Support to Ukraine - Trump reiterated the U.S. commitment to continue supplying weapons to Ukraine, stating that an agreement has been reached for the U.S. to produce weapons without incurring costs, with NATO members expected to purchase billions of dollars worth of equipment for Ukraine [2]. - The U.S. is expected to provide the "Patriot" air defense system to Ukraine imminently, with costs covered by European allies [3]. - Discussions are ongoing regarding the transfer of additional military equipment, including long-range missiles, which would mark a shift from the current policy of only providing defensive weapons [4]. Group 3: Political Context and Reactions - Trump expressed disappointment in President Putin, indicating that he had hoped for a ceasefire agreement that now seems unlikely [3]. - The article highlights the bipartisan support in Congress for sanctions against Russia, with specific mentions of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham advocating for economic pressure on countries like China and India to influence their trade decisions with Russia [2]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky is actively engaging with U.S. officials to strengthen air defense systems and discuss further sanctions against Russia [4].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a mixed trend in price changes, with 23 products experiencing price increases, 23 seeing declines, and 4 remaining stable during the first week of July 2025 compared to the end of June 2025 [2]. Group 1: Price Changes in Major Categories - In the black metal category, rebar prices increased by 0.9% to 3108.2 yuan per ton, while ordinary medium plates decreased slightly by 0.1% to 3371.2 yuan per ton [4]. - For non-ferrous metals, electrolytic copper rose by 1.5% to 80208.6 yuan per ton, while zinc ingots fell by 0.1% to 22257.1 yuan per ton [4]. - Chemical products showed varied results, with sulfuric acid increasing by 3.5% to 682.7 yuan per ton, while methanol decreased by 2.6% to 2257.6 yuan per ton [4]. Group 2: Energy and Coal Prices - In the petroleum and natural gas sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose by 0.7% to 4286.8 yuan per ton, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell by 1.6% to 4511.9 yuan per ton [4]. - Coal prices showed slight increases, with anthracite coal rising by 0.9% to 829.8 yuan per ton and ordinary mixed coal increasing by 1.7% to 488.3 yuan per ton [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Products and Fertilizers - Among agricultural products, cotton prices increased by 0.9% to 14557.3 yuan per ton, while corn prices decreased slightly by 0.1% to 2368.3 yuan per ton [5]. - In agricultural production materials, the price of urea fell by 0.3% to 1820.3 yuan per ton, while the price of pesticides rose by 1.1% to 25478.6 yuan per ton [5]. Group 4: Monitoring Methodology - The price monitoring includes data from over 2000 wholesalers, agents, and distributors across more than 300 trading markets in 31 provinces [7]. - The methodology for price monitoring involves on-site price collection, telephone inquiries, and electronic communications [8].

Core Insights - The forum discussed strategies for Chinese companies to adapt to the reshaping of the global economic landscape due to geopolitical challenges, trade barriers, financial volatility, and technological changes [2][3] Group 1: Global Economic Landscape - The pressure of global supply chain restructuring highlights China's strong production, logistics, and human resources, which can still provide competitive advantages [3] - The "dual circulation" strategy emphasizes the importance of enhancing negotiation skills with the world and identifying systematic opportunities for international expansion [3] - The World Bank indicates that since 2004, the share of global goods and services trade in global GDP has steadily increased, showing that globalization has not halted [6] Group 2: Digital Currency and Regulation - The U.S. and global regulatory frameworks are evolving, particularly with the introduction of the U.S. Stablecoin Innovation Act and Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulations, which may diminish the decentralized nature of stablecoins [4] - The development of stablecoins by the U.S. is seen as a strategy to reinforce the dominance of the dollar in the global economy [4][5] - There is a call for China to accelerate legislation and regulation regarding digital currencies and stablecoins to enhance the internationalization of the renminbi [4][5] Group 3: Localization and Global Strategy - Companies must implement localization strategies to succeed in overseas markets, as evidenced by Ganfeng Lithium's approach to respecting local cultures and sharing benefits [7] - The integration of new technologies like artificial intelligence with China's manufacturing advantages is crucial for addressing challenges in overseas operations [7] - Key experiences for state-owned enterprises in international expansion include global resource allocation, differentiation, compliance, and low-carbon transformation [8] Group 4: Economic Challenges and Policy - Domestic economic challenges in China include a decline in import ratios, fluctuating real estate markets, and a need for more proactive monetary policies to stimulate investment and consumption [6] - The future of China's economy relies not only on macroeconomic policy adjustments but also on the ability of enterprises to find differentiated paths in the new phase of globalization [8]

Core Insights - The global economic and trade landscape is undergoing significant structural adjustments, with challenges arising from geopolitical tensions, trade barriers, financial volatility, and technological changes [1][3] - Companies need to develop resilience, innovate, and create safer global supply chains while leveraging regional cooperation and exploring emerging markets to secure value and influence in uncertain international markets [3][4] Group 1: Globalization Challenges and Strategies - The future of globalization is characterized by resilience, integration, innovation, and rules, necessitating companies to move beyond traditional thinking [3] - The systemic decline in investment returns globally, particularly in the U.S., raises questions about the sustainability of growth policies and their impact on efficiency [4][6] - The U.S. trade deficit is exacerbated by debt reliance, and tariffs may not effectively address trade imbalances, highlighting the importance of adapting supply chains [6] Group 2: Digital Currency and Regulatory Insights - The rise of stablecoins is reshaping the monetary landscape, with regulatory frameworks emerging to ensure their stability and utility as payment tools [7][8] - China is encouraged to accelerate the development of its digital currency to compete with stablecoins, emphasizing the need for effective legislation and international coordination [8] Group 3: Localization and Global Operations - Companies like GE Aviation emphasize the importance of localization in their success in China, with significant investments in local talent and infrastructure [11] - Ganfeng Lithium's global expansion reflects the necessity for Chinese firms to respect local cultures and regulations while leveraging their competitive advantages [11] - Lenovo's strategy combines Chinese manufacturing strengths with digital management to navigate global market uncertainties [12] Group 4: Internationalization and Corporate Strategies - China National Petroleum Corporation's internationalization strategy involves a three-phase approach, focusing on global standardization while maintaining local responsiveness [13] - The need for Chinese enterprises to innovate beyond mere product exports to achieve sustainable growth is highlighted, with examples of successful international strategies [17] Group 5: Economic Outlook and Future Growth - Despite challenges, global trade has maintained a stable share of GDP, with China showing strong performance in exports, although structural issues remain [16] - The future of China's economy relies on both macroeconomic policy adjustments and the ability of enterprises to find differentiated paths in the new phase of globalization [17]

Group 1 - The Royal Bank of Canada has lowered the target price for ConocoPhillips (COP.N) from $115 to $113 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has raised the target price for Occidental Petroleum (OXY.N) from $40 to $45 [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3500 points before retreating, indicating a generally stable market trend [1] - The VIX index calculated from the SSE 50 and CSI 300 ETF options has not shown a significant upward spike, suggesting a lower risk of sharp market fluctuations in the future [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive at 0.10% year-on-year, with a core CPI of 0.70%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.10% month-on-month [3] - The rise in CPI is attributed to seasonal weather effects, with vegetable prices increasing and a notable recovery in international oil prices impacting domestic energy prices [3] - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with beef prices rising by 2.7% after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5% [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - Due to ongoing pressures on CPI and PPI from consumer confidence and international trade risks, there is potential for a 10 basis point interest rate cut by the central bank in Q4, lowering the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.3% [4] - This could create more space in the bond market, with investors advised to focus on government bond ETFs [4] Group 4: International Economic Developments - The recent signing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. has expanded the deficit, with implications for various sectors, including traditional energy, manufacturing, and real estate, which may benefit from tax advantages [4] - The impact on A-shares remains unclear, but potential fiscal expansion in the U.S. could enhance demand for Chinese exports, particularly capital goods and equipment [4]