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音频 | 格隆汇8.4盘前要点—港A美股你需要关注的大事都在这
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-08-03 23:09
格隆汇8月4日|国际要闻: 大中华区要闻: 1、本周大事提醒:美国将实施"对等关税"、中芯国际、AMD 、诺和诺德、礼来等财报; 2、上周五美股三大指数集体下挫!纳指跌2.24%,亚马逊跌超8%,中概指数跌1.82%; 3、现货黄金在非农日涨2.2%,上周整体转涨,纽约铜累跌超23%; 4、国际油价非农日收跌约2.8%,上周仍然涨超3%; 5、欧佩克+同意9月增产54.8万桶/日 提前一年退出本轮减产计划; 6、美联储理事库格勒将辞职 特朗普迎来任命先机; 7、特朗普:已指示团队立即解雇劳工局局长 鲍威尔也该"退休"; 8、特朗普:佩洛西是靠内幕信息发家的,她应该受到调查; 9、美国7月非农就业人数7.3万人,低于预期; 10、美国5月和6月非农就业人数合计下修25.8万人; 11、美国7月失业率4.2%,符合预期; 12、美联储9月降息的概率为89.1%; 13、美国将考虑对减肥药物进行保险覆盖; 14、伯克希尔哈撒韦Q2净利润123.7亿美元高于预期,现金储备3440.9亿美元; 15、伯克希尔Q2现金储备三年来首降 股市投资更趋谨慎; 16、传奇投资家Jim Rogers:已清空所有美国股票; 17、韩 ...
华尔街见闻早餐FM-Radio | 2025年8月4日
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-03 22:58
Market Overview - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][10] - The S&P 500 index recorded its largest drop since May, falling by 1.60% to 6238.01 points, while the Nasdaq dropped over 2% [4] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, surpassed 20, indicating increased investor anxiety [2] Company News - Berkshire Hathaway reported a 59% drop in net profit for Q2, with cash reserves nearing historical highs, and warned that tariffs could negatively impact its performance [3][9] - Berkshire made a significant write-down of $3.8 billion on its investment in Kraft Heinz, which has been labeled as one of Buffett's major failures [9] - OPEC+ has agreed to a substantial increase in oil production, planning to add 548,000 barrels per day starting in September [9] Employment Data - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, matching expectations, while average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing the anticipated 3.8% [10] - The downward revision of previous months' job gains by a total of 258,000 has raised concerns about the reliability of employment data [10] Trade and Tariff Developments - The U.S. Trade Representative indicated that the current tariff policies will largely remain unchanged, despite ongoing negotiations [11][12] - President Trump has increased tariffs on various countries, including a 39% tariff on Swiss goods, which has surprised Swiss officials [11][21] Industry Insights - Goldman Sachs noted a chaotic week for U.S. stocks, with strong earnings from major tech companies overshadowed by new tariffs and poor employment reports [13] - The European banking sector has seen a 34% increase in stock prices this year, reaching the highest levels since 2008, driven by rising interest rates and improving economic conditions [25] Emerging Trends - The robotics sector is expected to see significant advancements in flexible operations and human-machine interaction capabilities, indicating a positive outlook for future applications [26] - The cobalt market is facing a severe shortage, with imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo dropping over 60% in June, leading to expectations of rising prices [26]
金十数据全球财经早餐 | 2025年8月4日
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-08-03 22:56
男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普不满就业数据,下令解雇劳工统计局局长 特朗普下令部署两艘核潜艇至俄附近海域 美国7月非农大爆冷,前两个月数据大幅下修 美联储二把手:对9月降息持开放态度 美联储理事库格勒辞职,美联储9月降息押注升温 欧佩克+同意9月继续大幅增产 移动电源认证新规8月15日起实施 8月8日起新发国债等利息收入恢复征收增值税 央行:加大"两重""两新"等重点领域的融资支持力度 市场盘点 上周五,由于疲软的非农数据推动降息预期急剧升温,美元指数重挫,下破99整数关口,最终收跌1.363%,报98.67,创4个多月来最大单日跌幅。美债收益 率集体跳水,基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.225%,2年期美债收益率收报3.698%。 现货黄金在非农数据公布后直线拉升,大涨逾70美元,最终收涨2.21%,收报3362.88美元/盎司,刷新一周高点,并抹去周内全部跌幅;现货白银走势相 似,但涨幅略逊,最终收涨0.76%,报37.05美元/盎司。 A股整体缩量,三大股指早盘窄幅震荡,午后集体 ...
8月“开门黑” 非农是否将成为美股调整的起点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 17:30
美联储压力有所升级 美联储上周按兵不动。近一周美国公布了大量经济数据,作为美联储最关注的物价指标,数据显示美国 关税上调的延迟效应开始渗透到经济中,6月个人消费支出物价指数(PCE)环比上涨0.3%,创自2月以 来的最大增幅。核心(PCE)则继续维持在2.8%,与美联储2%的目标距离不小。外界担忧,随着关税 进一步推高进口商品的价格,将造成价格压力在下半年加剧。 然而备受关注的就业数据让美联储降息的天平有所倾斜。7月份非农报告显示,美国新增就业人数7.3万 人,远低于10.4万人的预测。此前的两份数据被大幅向下修订, 6月份的就业增长从14.7万人降至1.4万 人,5月份从12.5万人降至1.9万人,这是自2020年5月以来最大的双月下修。 牛津经济研究院高级经济学家施瓦茨(Bob Schwartz)在接受第一财经记者采访时表示,令人惊讶的就 业报告将增加美联储尽早降息的压力。如果不是因为卫生和社会服务部门持续强劲,非农在过去三个月 将出现下降,这两个行业对周期性因素并不十分敏感,主要反映了人口老龄化的需求。 他进一步分析道,制造业是一个周期性敏感的行业,可能受到关税的影响,截至7月已经连续三个月出 现失业情 ...
开源证券晨会纪要-20250803
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-03 14:41
2025 年 08 月 04 日 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源:聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 行业名称 涨跌幅(%) 环保 0.884 传媒 0.817 轻工制造 0.652 计算机 0.604 电力设备 0.537 数据来源:聚源 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 行业名称 涨跌幅(%) 石油石化 -1.791 国防军工 -1.468 钢铁 -1.257 通信 -1.057 综合 -0.958 数据来源:聚源 开源晨会 0804 ——晨会纪要 吴梦迪(分析师) wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】就业市场走弱,通胀成为美联储降息关键掣肘——美国 7 月非农就 业数据点评-20250802 【宏观经济】PMI 供需均放缓,"反内卷"提振价格——兼评国家生育补贴和 7 月 PMI 数据-20250801 【策略】坚守自我,科技为先——投资策略周报-20250803 【金融工程】港股量化:7 月组合超额 6.8%,8 月增配价值——金融工程定期 -20250802 【金融工程】PCB 板块的资金行为监测——金融工程定期-20250801 【金融 ...
特朗普关税大棒刚落地,美股崩盘数据造假,美国经济要翻车?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-03 14:32
"这是让美国再次伟大的关键一步!"特朗普对着镜头扬起眉毛,"谁也别想再占我们的便宜,美国制造即将统治全球!"他的经济顾问纳瓦罗立刻接话:"总 统先生不仅该拿诺贝尔和平奖,经济学奖也得给他留着!" 一、市场崩盘:特朗普的"灵丹妙药"变"穿肠毒药" 美股开盘即上演"自由落体":道琼斯指数暴跌1.23%,纳斯达克重挫2.24%,标普500指数跌1.6%,4500多只股票集体"变绿"。科技巨头亚马逊单日市值蒸发 超1.2万亿元人民币,相当于跌没了一个宁德时代。美元指数闪崩0.8%,黄金价格飙涨2%,国际油价跳水3%——全球资本用真金白银投票:这哪是"救市良 方",分明是"经济毒药"。 特朗普关税大棒刚落地,美股崩盘数据造假,美国经济要翻车? 8月初,华盛顿的白宫椭圆形办公室内,特朗普正用他标志性的夸张手势在行政令上签字——这份被吹嘘为"重塑全球贸易秩序"的对等关税政策,将对中 国、欧盟等12个经济体征收10%至41%的关税,未列明国家统一适用10%,对通过第三地转运的商品更是开出40%的"天价罚单"。 可这出"胜利大戏"还没唱完24小时,华尔街就掀翻了剧本。 三、数据造假:解雇局长只为"改数字"? "这些数据都是被操 ...
炸裂!操纵数据实锤了?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-03 14:15
Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility following the release of disappointing non-farm payroll data, with major indices declining sharply: Nasdaq down 2.24%, Dow Jones down 1.23%, and S&P 500 down 1.6% [3][4] - The non-farm payroll report showed only 73,000 jobs added in July, the lowest increase since October of the previous year, with substantial downward revisions for May and June, totaling a reduction of 258,000 jobs [6][7] - Following the employment data, the probability of a rate cut in September rose to 64%, up from less than 40% prior to the report, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards easing monetary policy [6] Group 2: Berkshire Hathaway's Financial Performance - Berkshire Hathaway reported Q2 2025 revenue of $92.515 billion, slightly above market expectations, but down 1.22% year-over-year, with net income falling 59% to $12.37 billion [8][10] - The company continued its trend of stock sales, offloading approximately $6.92 billion in stocks while purchasing only $3.9 billion, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of net stock sales [8][10] - A significant write-down of $3.76 billion was announced for its stake in Kraft Heinz, attributed to non-temporary impairment, reflecting concerns over the company's financial health [8][10] Group 3: Economic and Political Context - The release of the non-farm payroll data led to political backlash, with President Trump calling for the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau head, alleging manipulation of employment figures for political purposes [7] - Analysts suggest that the current economic environment and uncertainties may lead to continued volatility in the market, with Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves of $344.1 billion indicating a cautious investment stance [10][11]
A股策略周思考:美国非农弱于预期,降息周期有望重启
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-03 14:15
Domestic Economic Insights - The Political Bureau of the CPC held a meeting on July 30, emphasizing the need to complete the annual economic and social development goals and prepare for the 15th Five-Year Plan[1] - The manufacturing PMI for July decreased to 49.3%, down from 49.7% in June, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[12] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in service sector activity[14] Industrial Performance - Industrial profits in June showed a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, an improvement from the previous decline of 9.1%[21] - The inventory of industrial enterprises slightly decreased, with finished goods inventory at 6.6 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[21] - The profit margin for the mining industry was 16.95%, while the manufacturing sector's profit margin remained low at 4.46%[23] International Economic Context - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[37] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not change interest rates in July, with Chairman Powell indicating no decisions have been made regarding September's rates[37] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Focus on three main investment directions: technology AI+, consumer stock valuation recovery, and the rise of undervalued dividends[4] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a cautious approach in the current market environment, which may experience increased volatility[4]
小菜园发布25H1盈喜预告,中国香港《稳定币条例草案》正式生效
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-03 13:58
Group 1 - Xiaocai Garden released a profit forecast for H1 2025, expecting a net profit of 360-380 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.57%-35.71% compared to the same period in 2024. The growth is attributed to operational efficiency optimization, strict cost control, and refined management [2][12]. - The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Regulation Draft" officially came into effect on August 1, establishing a licensing system for fiat stablecoin issuers in Hong Kong. This aims to enhance the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities and promote financial innovation [3][13]. Group 2 - JD.com announced a voluntary public acquisition offer for CECONOMY AG at a price of 4.60 euros per share, with a total valuation of approximately 2.2 billion euros (about 18.1 billion yuan). This acquisition is expected to be the largest overseas acquisition by a Chinese e-commerce company if successful, with 31.7% of shareholders already committing to the offer [4][15]. - JD.com is accelerating its overseas expansion through a "self-built + acquisition" strategy, focusing on local e-commerce rather than cross-border platforms. The company has seen significant growth in its Ochama brand in Europe, with a 284% year-on-year increase in orders from January to October 2024 [5][17]. Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 3.47% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 4.94% during the week [19][24]. - In the U.S. market, the non-farm payrolls for July increased by 73,000, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, with previous months' data also revised downwards [36]. Group 4 - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, with the healthcare sector showing a positive growth of 1.82%, while the materials sector faced the largest decline of 5.87% [20]. - Among Chinese concept stocks, the optional consumer sector fell by 4.84%, and the daily consumer sector decreased by 4.31% [27].
国泰海通 · 晨报0804|宏观、策略、海外策略
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-08-03 13:50
Macro Analysis - The US non-farm payroll data for July fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions for May and June, raising concerns about data quality and indicating a weakening private sector job market [4] - There is a divergence between the non-farm payroll data and the unemployment rate, attributed to the impact of immigration policies, which have reduced the proportion of foreign-born individuals in the labor market [4] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between managing inflation and employment, with the July non-farm data likely insufficient to alter Powell's hawkish stance ahead of the Jackson Hole central bank meeting in August [4] Chinese Market Strategy - The Chinese stock market is characterized as a "transformation bull," with expectations for further index highs despite recent adjustments [9][10] - Key drivers of this transformation include economic shifts towards new technologies and consumption patterns, as well as systemic declines in risk-free interest rates, which lower the opportunity cost of investing in stocks [11] - Institutional reforms aimed at improving investor returns are crucial, enhancing the market's resilience and reducing risk premiums [11] Investment Themes - Emerging technologies are identified as a primary investment theme, while cyclical financial sectors are seen as potential dark horses [12] - Recommendations include stable and monopolistic sectors such as brokerage, banking, and insurance, alongside emerging growth sectors like internet, media, defense, and innovative pharmaceuticals [12] - The cyclical sector is expected to improve as competition dynamics evolve, with recommendations for materials like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and construction materials [12] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong new consumption sector is currently in a phase of heat digestion after significant gains earlier in the year, with consumer preferences shifting towards experiential and social consumption [17][18] - Historical parallels with Japan suggest that the transformation in consumer behavior towards personalized and rational consumption will continue to evolve in China [18] - The Hong Kong market offers a more balanced exposure to new consumption compared to the A-share market, which is dominated by traditional sectors [19]