Group 1: Energy Sector - International oil prices have significantly increased due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly following U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a rise in energy stocks [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices rose approximately 1% to $74.68 per barrel, reaching a high not seen since January [2] - Major energy companies saw stock price increases, with ExxonMobil up 1.8% and Chevron up 1.5%, while Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Baker Hughes also experienced gains [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.57%, the Dow Jones by 0.42%, and the Nasdaq by 0.55% following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Bowman regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] - Despite geopolitical risks, investors remain relatively calm about the oil market, with analysts suggesting that the current geopolitical situation may not lead to significant disruptions in oil supply [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Developments - Trump Media Technology Group announced a stock buyback of up to $400 million, which led to a 4% increase in its stock price [3] - The company recently completed a $2.44 billion financing round, raising $1.44 billion through the sale of shares and $1 billion through zero-coupon convertible bonds, with plans to use funds for Bitcoin reserves [4] - ProCapBTC, a financial services company, is set to merge with a SPAC to create a Bitcoin reserve company, expected to hold up to $1 billion in Bitcoin [4]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：付春生 （18482259975） 报告摘要 本轮伊以冲突以来，伊朗再次发出封锁霍尔木兹海峡的威胁。本篇报告主要梳理霍尔木兹海峡的贸易重要 性以及封锁威胁的"前车之鉴"。 一、霍尔木兹海峡的能源贸易战略地位 霍尔木兹海峡介于伊朗与阿拉伯半岛的阿曼角之间。海峡北岸是伊朗，海峡南岸是阿曼；东接阿曼湾，西 连波斯湾， 是波斯湾通往印度洋的唯一出口 。 霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源贸易的咽喉要道 。2024年全球石油和其他液体燃料的消费量大约102.7百万桶/ 天，其中大约75.5百万桶/日是通过海运运输，占比约74%。而 流经霍尔木兹海峡的石油和其他液体燃料的 贸易量大约20.3百万桶/天，占全球消费量约20%，占全球海运贸易量约27% 。此外，2023年全球天然气消 费约3.96万亿立方米，其中贸易量占比约32%。在天然气贸易中，LNG贸易量占天然气贸易量的比例约 46%。 2024年流经霍尔木兹海峡的LNG贸易量约占全球LNG贸易量的20%，即约占全球天然气贸易量的 9% 。 二、封锁海峡，哪些地区受影响最大？ 从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has raised market fears, leading to an increase in Brent crude oil prices, which have risen by 18% since June 10, reaching a nearly five-month high of $79.04 per barrel [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Prices - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for oil transport, with 2024 oil flow expected to average 20 million barrels per day, accounting for about 20% of global oil liquid consumption [1]. - The announcement of potential closure has led to a rebound in oil prices, indicating a possible end to the oil and gas super cycle that began in October 2020 [2][4]. - Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $79.82 per barrel in 2024, with a narrow fluctuation expected throughout the year [3]. Group 2: Domestic Implications - Rising oil prices will increase the cost of imported crude for domestic refineries, leading to a further decline in refinery operating rates, which have already dropped below 80% [2]. - The average operating rate in the petrochemical refining industry is around 75%, with independent refineries operating below 60% [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Opportunities - The current volatility in oil prices presents trading opportunities for futures market participants, despite being unfavorable for spot market players due to unclear market trends [2][4]. - Analysts suggest that if the Strait is closed, oil prices could potentially reach $100 per barrel; otherwise, prices may stabilize around $75 [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical Context - The geopolitical situation in the region remains tense, with the potential closure of the Strait serving as a negotiation tool rather than a definitive action, historically leading to limited actual closures [4]. - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability in the Persian Gulf region for global economic development [5].

惊！西方赌它3个月崩盘，却逆势暴涨20%？俄罗斯经济的致命骗局藏不住了！ 三年前，俄乌冲突爆发那刻，华尔街精英们集体押注：俄罗斯经济最多撑3个月！首周卢布暴跌30%， 莫斯科超市货架被抢空，通胀率像火箭般窜到18%，连卫生纸都成了硬通货。高盛、摩根大通的分析师 狂敲计算器预言：6月外汇储备见底，经济将迎来"史诗级崩盘"！ 这种疯狂投入，像台抽水机，把教育、医疗、基建的钱全抽干了。但诡异的是，GDP反而涨了13%，增 速是欧盟的3倍！真相很残酷：这些增长全是"消耗型繁荣"——炮弹打完就没了，军粮吃完就消化了， 既不能反哺产业升级，也无法改善民生。 俄罗斯的经济底色，堪称"魔幻分裂"：核武库全球第一，教育普及率世界第四，却活得像个巨型"能源 部落"。全国1/4劳动力死守油田和天然气管道，人均年收入仅1.4万美金，连欧盟的1/3都不到。 这病根得从苏联解体说起。90年代的俄罗斯有多惨？通胀率飙到2250%，买根香肠得扛着麻袋卢布，甚 至有人烧钱取暖——因为卢布比柴火还便宜！人均寿命从64岁暴跌到57岁，国家濒临崩溃。 关键时刻，西方递来"救命稻草"：敞开能源贸易大门。苏联时期，欧洲从苏联进口天然气仅占3%；解 体后 ...

美国对伊朗三处核设施发动袭击后，6月22日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，美国袭击伊朗核设施"令人发 指"，将会产生"持久后果"，同日，伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡。本轮伊以冲突爆发进入第11天， 局势持续升级，而在资本市场上，6月23日，A股军工股再度活跃，航运股集体走高，截至午盘沪指报 3365.07点，涨0.15%，深成指报9988.66点，跌0.16%，创业板指数报2003.26点，跌0.33%。 高盛集团表示，美国打击伊朗之后， 石油和天然气价格可能上涨，但基线情境预测取决于该地区供应 是否受到严重干扰。分析师在报告指出，如果通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输量在一个月内下降一半，并 在接下来的11个月保持低10%的状态，布伦特油价将短暂飙升至每桶110美元。如果伊朗石油供应量减 少175万桶每日，布伦特将最高触及90美元。 6月22日，美国对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施发动袭击后，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委 员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委 员会手中。 战火延烧引市场担忧 预计油价将大幅上行 霍尔木兹海峡位于阿曼和伊朗之间，连接了东部的阿曼湾和西部 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that oil and gas prices may rise following the U.S. attack on Iran, although the bank's base forecast depends on whether there will be significant disruptions in supply in the region [1] - Analysts, including Daan Struyven, indicate that if oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz decreases by half within a month and maintains a 10% reduction over the next 11 months, Brent crude prices could spike to $110 per barrel [1] - If Iranian supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day, Brent oil prices could peak at $90 [1] Group 2 - The global oil market is assessing potential price movements as the Middle East crisis escalates, with current crude futures near $79 per barrel [1] - Following the U.S. attack on three Iranian nuclear facilities, Asian trading saw a significant price increase, although Brent crude later retraced some gains as the market refocused on the fact that actual oil transport remains unaffected [1] - Analysts note that major stakeholders, including the U.S. and China, have strong economic incentives to prevent large-scale disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [1] Group 3 - The natural gas market is also viewed as risky, with analysts suggesting that European benchmark futures (TTF) could rise to €74 per megawatt hour (approximately $25 per million British thermal units), a level that previously suppressed demand during the 2022 European energy crisis [1] - In the event of a large-scale and sustained disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, natural gas prices could potentially rise to €100 per megawatt hour [2]

智通财经APP获悉，国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃警告称，美国对伊朗发动 空袭打击后，全球经济面临的不确定性加剧，该事件带来的影响可能不仅仅限于霍尔木兹海峡封锁预期 所带来的原油、液化天然气(LNG)等能源领域价格大涨，IMF正在持续监控能源价格以外的更广泛经济 增长风险。国际货币基金组织正密切关注能源价格受到的影响程度，以及对大型经济体增长前景的潜在 二次和三次级别影响。 "我们把这视为在全球经济高度不确定环境中的又一个不确定来源，"格奥尔基耶娃周一在接受媒体采访 时表示。她还表示，迄今为止最大的冲击体现为能源价格，IMF正紧密追踪这一动向，但"可能会出现 潜在的二次、三次级别的对于经济增长的影响"。 "假如进一步地缘政治动荡打击到全球一些大型经济体的增长前景，那么全球经济增速预期就会触发下 调机制，进而引起一系列负面连锁反应。"格奥尔基耶娃表示。 全球原油基准——布伦特原油期货价格在周一亚洲早盘一度飙升5.7%，至每桶 81.40 美元，随后在大量 成交中回吐大部分涨幅。 据了解，IMF此前已经在4月下调今年全球增速预期，并当时警告称，由美国主导的世界贸易格局"重 启"将拖累全球 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.13%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index remained flat [1] - The oil and gas sector and semiconductors led the gains, with Shandong Molong (002490) rising over 6% and Huahong Semiconductor increasing over 7% [1] - Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) experienced a decline of over 2% on its first day of trading in Hong Kong [1]

A股三大指数早盘涨跌不一，截至午盘，沪指涨0.15%，深成指跌0.16%，创业板指跌0.33%，北证50指 数涨0.51%。全市场半日成交额6838亿元，较上日缩量24亿元。全市场超3600只个股上涨。板块题材 上，石油天然气、港口航运、核污染防治、军工、跨境支付板块涨幅居前。白酒、游戏、猪肉、减肥药 概念股跌幅居前。盘面上，中东局势持续紧张，石油天然气、港口航运板块大涨，泰山石油 （000554）、神开股份（002278）、宁波海运（600798）等股涨停。跨境支付板块早盘拉升，吉大正元 （003029）涨停。银行板块盘中探底回升，工商银行、建设银行、农业银行多股续创历史新高。白酒股 早盘表现落后，迎驾贡酒、山西汾酒（600809）、古井贡酒（000596）跌幅居前。猪肉食品股走低，海 大集团（002311）、双汇发展（000895）、巨星农牧（603477）等股下挫。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The IEA and EIA have lowered their global crude oil demand forecasts for 2025 due to weak demand from the US and China, while geopolitical risks continue to support oil prices [1] Group 1: Demand and Supply Outlook - IEA predicts a loose supply-demand balance in 2025, but geopolitical risks are prominent [1] - OPEC+ increased production by 180,000 barrels per day in May, which is below planned levels, indicating limited actual production capacity [1] - China's "three oil giants" maintain high capital expenditures, with a planned oil and gas production growth of 1.3% to 5.9% by 2025, reinforcing energy security [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Market Impact - The escalation of the US's involvement in the Israel-Palestine conflict has intensified the situation, leading to fluctuations in Brent and WTI crude oil prices [1] - The risk of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has increased, with a potential closure impacting 34% of global maritime oil exports, resulting in a 72% weekly increase in BDTI shipping rates [1] - The valuation of oil shipping is expected to rise due to these geopolitical tensions [1] Group 3: Industry Performance and Investment Opportunities - The medium to long-term outlook for crude oil supply and demand remains positive, with recovering chemical demand and capacity clearing benefiting leading refining and coal chemical companies' profitability [1] - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the oil and gas sector [1] - The index focuses on the oil and natural gas industry, exhibiting high industry concentration and cyclical characteristics, effectively representing the overall market trends of the oil and gas industry chain [1]