Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc., on November 3, 2025. The trends include upward, downward, and fluctuating movements, and the intensity of the trends is also indicated [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 921.92 yuan, up 1.07% [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is expected to rebound in a fluctuating manner. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 11,441 yuan, up 1.66% [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price will fluctuate. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 87,010 yuan, down 1.08% [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Will fluctuate within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22,355 yuan [14]. - **Lead**: The continuous reduction of overseas inventories supports the price. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 17,390 yuan, up 0.23% [2][17]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 283,910 yuan, up 0.11% [2][19]. - **Aluminum**: The center of gravity will move upward. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 21,300 yuan [22]. - **Alumina**: It is anchored by supply reduction. The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view. The price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2,793 yuan [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It will run strongly. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20,805 yuan [22]. - **Nickel**: The accumulation of inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while the uncertainty at the ore end provides support. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120,590 yuan [25]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price will fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,655 yuan [25]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The expectation of复产 restricts the upward space, and it will fluctuate within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 2511 contract closed at 79,300 yuan [28]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The reduction of warehouse receipts provides support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the Si2601 contract closed at 9,100 yuan [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Driven by positive sentiment, the futures price has risen. The trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view. The price of the PS2601 contract closed at 56,410 yuan [33]. - **Iron Ore**: It will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 12601 contract closed at 800 yuan, down 0.31% [36]. - **Rebar**: Affected by sector sentiment, it will fluctuate widely. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the RB2601 contract closed at 3,106 yuan, down 0.48% [41][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by sector sentiment, it will fluctuate widely. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the HC2601 contract closed at 3,308 yuan, down 0.72% [42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, it will fluctuate weakly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the silicon ferrosilicon 2601 contract closed at 5,500 yuan [46]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, it will fluctuate weakly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the manganese silicide 2601 contract closed at 5,772 yuan [46]. - **Coke**: It will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the J2601 contract closed at 1,777 yuan, down 0.5% [50][51]. - **Coking Coal**: Driven by macro - economic factors and sector themes, it will fluctuate strongly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the JM2601 contract closed at 1,286 yuan, down 0.2% [51]. - **Log**: It will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The price of the 2511 contract closed at 743 yuan [53][54]. - **Rubber**: It will run in a fluctuating manner. The price and trend intensity are not specified in the provided text [57]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: It will fluctuate strongly, and the volatility will continue to increase [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continued to strengthen at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market reached a record high for the year [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It will consolidate in a fluctuating manner [4]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: They will return to fundamentals and fluctuate in the short term. The strategy is to go long on PF and short on PR [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The driving force for the oil market is lacking, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The rebound of US soybeans supports the expansion of the soybean - palm oil spread [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans reached a new high, and the Dalian soybean meal may follow and fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Soybean**: It may fluctuate strongly [4]. - **Corn**: It will run in a fluctuating manner [4]. - **Sugar**: It will mainly consolidate within a range [4]. - **Cotton**: The impact of the seed cotton price on the cotton futures has weakened [4]. - **Egg**: It will adjust in a fluctuating manner [4]. - **Live Pig**: The price center may further decline [4]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4].

Group 1 - The 2026 China (Changdu) Mining Conference is strategically positioned to leverage Changdu's rich mineral resources and align with national development goals, addressing urgent industrial upgrade needs [2][3] - Changdu is recognized as a significant mining hub, located in the "Three Rivers Mineral Belt," with abundant and high-quality mineral resources, including lithium and copper, which are crucial for the new energy industry [2][3] - The conference aims to create a high-end platform to tackle challenges in the mining sector, such as high-altitude construction difficulties and technological bottlenecks, which have hindered the full economic potential of local resources [2][4] Group 2 - National strategies, including the "dual carbon" goals and the development of the western region, provide strong policy support for the conference, emphasizing the importance of lithium and copper in the new energy supply chain [3][4] - The urgent need for industrial upgrades is highlighted by the challenges faced in Changdu's mining sector, including low efficiency and high energy consumption of traditional mining methods, as well as a lack of deep processing capabilities [3][4] - The conference will facilitate the introduction of advanced technologies and capital, promoting a shift from resource-intensive development to green and deep processing [4][5] Group 3 - Changdu's geographical advantages as a transportation hub enhance the feasibility of hosting the conference, supported by a developed transportation network and local mining enterprises with operational experience [4][5] - The region has made significant progress in ecological protection, providing a model for sustainable mining practices that align with the conference's theme of "green development" [4][5] - The conference is expected to serve as a catalyst for high-quality mining development in Changdu and a milestone for connecting the western mining industry with global markets [5]

2025.11. 03 本文字数：2553，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 章轲 封图 | 盘活呆死矿能激活至少万亿元投资。图为东南某省一个关闭多年的矿山。摄影/章轲 各地大量呆死矿的存在，正阻碍我国矿业的正常发展，也影响了新一轮找矿突破战略行动进程。 在中国老科技工作者协会自然资源分会矿业法治专家委员会、北京市京师律师事务所11月1日主办的 内蒙地区盘活呆死矿研讨会暨京师呼市分所矿产资源法律事务部成立会议上，多位专家表示，应尽快 出台盘活呆死矿化解地方债和企业债的新一轮矿产资源整合政策，有效化解地方债和企业债。 日前公布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，"优化提升传 统产业。推动重点产业提质升级，巩固提升矿业、冶金、化工、轻工、纺织、机械、船舶、建筑等产 业在全球产业分工中的地位和竞争力""推动战略性产业、能源资源基地等布局优化""夯实国家安全基 础保障，确保粮食、能源资源、重要产业链供应链、重大基础设施安全，加强战略性矿产资源勘探开 发和储备"。 专家们此前调研发现， 由于矿建、环保、安全、用地、地方政策等原因，导致60%以上仍登记在自 然资源部官网上的采矿权，因 ...

将激活至少万亿元投资，增加大量采矿产能。 "我们那里呆死矿数量占矿山总数的70%以上。矿业企业对于盘活呆死矿的愿望非常强烈。"研讨会上， 北方某市自然资源局官员表示，盘活呆死矿，对于促进地方经济发展和高质量发展能起到快速见效的功 效。 各地大量呆死矿的存在，正阻碍我国矿业的正常发展，也影响了新一轮找矿突破战略行动进程。 在中国老科技工作者协会自然资源分会矿业法治专家委员会、北京市京师律师事务所11月1日主办的内 蒙地区盘活呆死矿研讨会暨京师呼市分所矿产资源法律事务部成立会议上，多位专家表示，应尽快出台 盘活呆死矿化解地方债和企业债的新一轮矿产资源整合政策，有效化解地方债和企业债。 日前公布的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，"优化提升传统 产业。推动重点产业提质升级，巩固提升矿业、冶金、化工、轻工、纺织、机械、船舶、建筑等产业在 全球产业分工中的地位和竞争力""推动战略性产业、能源资源基地等布局优化""夯实国家安全基础保 障，确保粮食、能源资源、重要产业链供应链、重大基础设施安全，加强战略性矿产资源勘探开发和储 备"。 专家们此前调研发现，由于矿建、环保、安全、用地、地方政策等 ...

Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market experienced mixed performance from October 27 to October 31, with energy and chemical sectors leading the decline, while the black metal sector saw gains [1] - In the domestic futures market, fuel oil fell by 2.45%, and crude oil decreased by 1.33%. Conversely, iron ore rose by 3.76%, coking coal increased by 3.00%, and coking coal saw a rise of 1.11% [1] Iron Ore Market Dynamics - Iron ore futures exhibited a "strong then weak" trend, with the main contract I2601 initially rebounding to 810.5 CNY/ton before closing the week at 800 CNY/ton, up 3.76% [2] - Supply remains robust, with global iron ore shipments totaling 33.884 million tons, an increase of 549,000 tons week-on-week. Domestic production capacity utilization rose to 60.96%, with daily output at 476,400 tons [2][3] - Demand is under pressure, as daily pig iron production decreased by 35,400 tons to 2.3636 million tons, marking a two-month low, primarily due to reduced steel mill profitability and environmental restrictions [2][3] Palm Oil Market Trends - Palm oil futures saw a significant decline, with the main contract closing at 8,764 CNY/ton, down 3.92%. Trading volume decreased by 20,000 contracts, indicating reduced market activity [4][5] - Supply from Indonesia is increasing, with August production at 5.06 million tons and a slight inventory drop to 2.54 million tons. The forecast for 2025 indicates a 10% production increase [5] - Demand pressures are evident, particularly from India, where September palm oil imports fell to 829,000 tons, the lowest since May, and domestic purchasing activity remains low [5][6] U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range to 3.75%-4.00%, and will end balance sheet reduction starting December 1, marking a significant policy shift [7][8] - This rate cut is the second of the year, reflecting a cautious approach to managing economic risks, with notable divisions among policymakers regarding future rate adjustments [7][8] - Market expectations for further rate cuts in December have decreased significantly, with the probability dropping from 90% to 63% [8] Manufacturing Sector Insights - China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in October, a decline of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction for the seventh consecutive month [9][10] - The production index dropped significantly, and new export orders fell to 45.9, reflecting increased pressure from global demand [10] - The divergence in PMI among different enterprise sizes suggests that while larger firms maintain some stability, smaller firms are experiencing more pronounced declines [10][11]

Group 1 - The article discusses a recent reduction in U.S. tariffs from 57% to 47%, which was exchanged for China pausing its rare earth export controls for one year. This agreement was reached before November and highlights China's strategic approach of engaging only when it can win [1][15]. - Rare earth elements are critical for various technologies, including electric vehicles and missile systems. China's selective export restrictions aim to create discomfort for the U.S. without causing a global collapse [1][9]. - The article emphasizes that the U.S. trade policies, particularly under Trump, have inadvertently strengthened China's position in the rare earth market, shifting China from a buyer to a price-setting role [3][11]. Group 2 - The article also highlights China's strategic moves in helium supply, noting that the U.S. previously controlled 90% of the global helium market. However, China has invested in Qatar's gas fields to reduce its dependency on U.S. helium, which has led to a significant decrease in U.S. market share [3][11]. - China's approach is characterized as a "waiting and striking" strategy, where it waits for the opponent to be in a chaotic state before taking action, thus minimizing risks and maximizing gains [7][11]. - The recycling of scrap steel has become increasingly significant, with a 30% increase in usage last year, leading to a negative growth in iron ore imports for the first time. This shift is impacting global mining companies negatively, particularly in Australia and Brazil [7][9]. Group 3 - The article suggests that China's actions are not merely reactive but part of a long-term strategy to reshape the pricing power and control over supply chains in the resource sector. This includes a gradual approach to rare earths, helium, and scrap steel recycling [9][11]. - The overall strategy is to create a firewall in the resource sector, reducing external risks while minimizing dependency on imports. This is achieved through a series of calculated moves rather than abrupt changes [11][15]. - The recent tariff reduction is seen as a result of U.S. pressure, indicating that the timing of actions in trade negotiations is crucial, with China holding the leverage to act when it deems most advantageous [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in metal prices, particularly copper and cobalt, is driven by genuine demand and supply chain disruptions, rather than speculative trading. This situation reflects a broader geopolitical struggle over critical resources essential for the fourth industrial revolution, including AI and renewable energy technologies [4][5][25]. Group 1: Metal Price Trends - As of the end of October, copper prices reached $10,807 per ton, nearing Goldman Sachs' prediction of $11,000, while electrolytic cobalt surged by 16.6% in two weeks, exceeding 400,000 yuan per ton [1][4]. - The metal index experienced a slight decline of 0.42% at the end of October, but trading volume remained high at over 17 million contracts, indicating ongoing market activity [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for metals is significantly influenced by the rise of AI and renewable energy, with copper being crucial for electrical infrastructure, particularly for AI data centers [6][7]. - A major supply disruption occurred at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which announced a significant reduction in output due to an accident, leading to a loss of over 20,000 tons of copper in the global market [7][10]. - The solar industry is driving silver prices up, with projections indicating that solar demand will account for half of global silver needs by 2030, resulting in a shortfall of 14,000 tons annually [8][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The competition for metal resources has escalated into a strategic battle among nations, with G7 countries forming alliances to reduce dependency on China for critical minerals [13][14]. - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper to boost domestic production, while the EU has initiated strategic projects to secure lithium, nickel, and cobalt resources [13][14]. Group 4: Resource Control by Smaller Nations - Many resource-rich countries are implementing export controls to increase their bargaining power, with nations like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ghana taking steps to limit foreign ownership and enhance local processing capabilities [15][16]. - Natural disasters and local policies are further complicating the supply chain, as seen with the impact of heavy rains in Congo and labor strikes in Australia [17]. Group 5: China's Strategic Position - China has significantly increased its lithium reserves, now holding 16.5% of global lithium resources, and has made substantial discoveries of gold and uranium, enhancing its resource base [19][21]. - Chinese companies are actively acquiring overseas mining assets and establishing processing facilities to secure supply chains and increase the value of raw materials [21][22]. - China holds a competitive edge in technology related to rare earths and battery production, with new regulations aimed at controlling the export of products containing Chinese rare earth elements [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expected return over the next 6-12 months [5][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 48.44 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.95 billion yuan, up 7.8% year-on-year [1][5]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.82 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.6%, while the net profit was 1.08 billion yuan, down 3.2% year-on-year but up 1.4% quarter-on-quarter [1][5]. - The company has successfully acquired the exploration rights for the Chating Copper Polymetallic Mine for 8.61 billion yuan, significantly increasing its copper and gold resource reserves [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company’s copper production was 138,000 tons, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, while zinc production rose by 19.9% to 95,000 tons, and lead production increased by 21% to 50,000 tons [2]. - The smelting segment saw a copper output of 263,000 tons, a 43.4% increase year-on-year, with Q3 production at 80,000 tons, up 30% year-on-year [2]. Resource Acquisition - The acquisition of the Chating Copper Polymetallic Mine is expected to enhance the company's resource base significantly, with confirmed industrial-grade copper ore amounting to 121.8 million tons and a total metal content of approximately 1.748 million tons [3]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 1.65 yuan, 1.93 yuan, and 2.05 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 12, and 12 times [3][4].

智利《biobiochile》网站等媒体10月29日报道，伦敦金属交易所铜价29日创下历史 新高，原因在于智利、非洲和印尼多个大型矿山接连停产导致全球供应紧张，而特朗 普政府的关税政策又造成大量铜库存积压美国。摩根士丹利预测2026年将出现二十年 来最严重的铜短缺。中国需求保持稳定、可再生能源及电动汽车产业长期需求旺盛， 共同推动铜价迈向2017年以来最佳年度表现。智利作为全球最大铜出口国，其货币兑 美元汇率随之走强。 （原标题：智媒关注铜价创历史新高） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in copper prices is attributed to a combination of trade benefits, supply chain issues, and a weaker dollar, with the market showing a short-term bullish trend while long-term outcomes depend on structural transformations in the industry [1][11][22] Supply Chain Issues - Significant supply disruptions are occurring at major mines, including Freeport-McMoRan in Indonesia and Ivanhoe in the Congo, leading to a supply gap of several hundred thousand tons that cannot be quickly replenished [3][5] - The recovery of these mines will take time, which suggests that copper prices have room to increase [3] Demand Factors - Demand for copper is being driven by essential projects in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and power transmission networks, with BHP predicting a 70% increase in demand by 2050 [5] - In China, electric vehicle sales surged by 35% in the first three quarters, significantly boosting copper demand [5] Currency Impact - The weakening of the US dollar, which has dropped over 7%, makes copper cheaper for buyers using other currencies, increasing the willingness to stockpile [7] Market Dynamics - The market is influenced by speculative trading and institutional hedging, leading to increased price volatility [12] - Key factors to monitor include the recovery progress of major mines, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the pace of infrastructure and electric vehicle development in China [14] Long-term Outlook - The industry is not expected to experience a straightforward upward trajectory; instead, it will likely see fluctuations influenced by supply, demand, and monetary conditions [11][20] - Structural trends, particularly in energy and transportation electrification, are expected to drive long-term copper demand, but short-term volatility should be approached with caution [22]