1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, the hot sectors are rotating rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and the bond market is expected to recover in a volatile manner [6]. - For precious metals, in the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The gold - silver ratio still has room for further downward repair [7]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term; aluminum prices may rise further; zinc prices are short - term strong but with limited upside in the surplus cycle; lead prices are expected to be strong; nickel prices are recommended to be observed in the short term; tin prices are expected to be strong and volatile; lithium carbonate is in high - level oscillation; alumina is recommended to be observed; stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [10][12][14][17][18][21][22][24][26][28]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term but may recover in the future; iron ore prices are expected to be weak in the short term; glass prices are expected to be weak; soda ash prices are expected to be volatile; for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the short - term negative impact is a phased release, and it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities; for industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon prices are expected to be in consolidation, and polysilicon supply - demand may improve marginally [31][33][35][37][39][43][45]. - For energy and chemicals, for rubber, a neutral approach is recommended for short - term trading; for crude oil, a low - buying and high - selling strategy is maintained, and short - term observation is recommended; for methanol, it is recommended to observe; for urea, it is recommended to observe; for pure benzene and styrene, styrene prices may stop falling; for PVC, it is recommended to short on rallies; for ethylene glycol, it is recommended to short on rallies; for PTA, pay attention to the opportunity of PXN rising to drive PTA up; for p - xylene, pay attention to the mid - term valuation increase opportunity; for polyethylene, prices are expected to be in low - level oscillation; for polypropylene, prices may be supported in the first quarter of next year [50][52][53][54][57][59][61][63][65][68][70]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, the first strategy is to do reverse spreads, and then wait to short on rallies; for eggs, prices are expected to be strong in the short term; for soybean and rapeseed meal, short - term follow - up with import cost increases, and mid - term short on rallies; for oils and fats, take a volatile view and turn to a long - term view if there are signs of production decline; for sugar, wait to short after the rebound weakens; for cotton, prices are expected to be in oscillation [73][76][78][81][83][86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The National Energy Administration explores the construction of new water - wind - solar integration bases; the China Photovoltaic Industry Association refutes rumors; Haibo Sichuang signs a cooperation agreement with CATL; Morgan Stanley raises the target prices of Samsung and SK Hynix and predicts a rise in DRAM and NAND prices [2]. - **Strategy**: The market's main line is technology growth. The medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The Fed has a growing divergence on December rate cuts, and the US - EU trade tension affects European enterprises. The central bank conducted 1955 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1300 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to recover in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. The retirement of the Atlanta Fed President may bring a dovish tendency. The US government is likely to reopen, which is positive for precious metals [7]. - **Strategy**: Go long on silver on dips, and the gold - silver ratio has room for downward repair [7]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose slightly. LME copper inventory was flat, and domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference declined [9]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [10]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices were strong but pulled back. The weighted contract positions increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. Domestic inventories increased slightly, and the spot was at a discount [11]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices may rise further [12]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and the LME inventory and registered warehouse receipts increased slightly [13]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are short - term strong but with limited upside in the surplus cycle [14]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory decreased continuously [16]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell. The spot premium was stable, the nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price fell [18]. - **Strategy**: Observe in the short term, and consider going long if the price drops enough [18]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. The warehouse receipts decreased, the tin concentrate price rose, and the smelting plant's operating rate rebounded but remained low due to raw material shortages [19]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to be strong and volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices were in high - level oscillation. The spot index declined slightly, and the futures contract price rose slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the high - level selling pressure, and focus on December's lithium - battery material production and the equity market atmosphere [22]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose slightly. The positions increased, the basis was at a discount, and the overseas price was stable. The futures warehouse receipts were unchanged [23]. - **Strategy**: Observe in the short term, and focus on supply - side policies and other factors [24]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The positions increased, the spot price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [25][26]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [26]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. The positions increased, the trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to follow aluminum prices [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. The registered warehouse receipts decreased, and the positions decreased [30]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short term but may recover in the future [31]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose. The positions decreased, and the spot price rose. The Simandou iron ore project was put into production [32]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 750 - 760 yuan/ton [33]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and the inventory decreased; soda ash prices fell, and the inventory increased [34][36]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to be weak; soda ash prices are expected to be volatile [35][37]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices fell slightly, and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly. Both are in the oscillation range [38]. - **Strategy**: The short - term negative impact is a phased release, and it is more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities [39]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose. Industrial silicon production increased, and polysilicon production decreased in November [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be in consolidation; polysilicon supply - demand may improve marginally [43][45]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The 11 - month warehouse receipts are about to expire, and there are different views on the market [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [50]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related refined product prices rose [51]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a low - buying and high - selling strategy, and observe in the short term [52]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices rose. The supply pressure increased, and the demand decreased [53]. - **Strategy**: Observe [53]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices rose. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [54]. - **Strategy**: Observe [54]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices were mixed. The supply pressure increased, and the demand decreased [55]. - **Strategy**: Styrene prices may stop falling [57]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The cost was stable, the supply increased, and the demand decreased [58]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies [59]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [60]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies [61]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [62]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of PXN rising to drive PTA up [63]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose. The supply increased, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [64]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the mid - term valuation increase opportunity [65]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Polyethylene prices rose. The supply was stable, the demand decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [66][67]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be in low - level oscillation [68]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Polypropylene prices rose. The supply was stable, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory increased [69]. - **Strategy**: Prices may be supported in the first quarter of next year [70]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices fell. The demand was weak, and the supply was high [72]. - **Strategy**: First, do reverse spreads, and then wait to short on rallies [73][74]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight declines. The supply was stable, and the demand was average [75]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term [76]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Domestic soybean inventory increased, and the meal price was stable [77]. - **Strategy**: Short - term follow - up with import cost increases, and mid - term short on rallies [78]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil prices were mixed. The production increased, and the export decreased; rapeseed production was stable [79][80]. - **Strategy**: Take a volatile view and turn to a long - term view if there are signs of production decline [81]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices were in oscillation. Brazilian sugar production increased, and the global supply surplus was revised down [82]. - **Strategy**: Wait to short after the rebound weakens [83]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices were in oscillation. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [84][85]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be in oscillation [86].

Core Insights - The market may have misinterpreted the Federal Reserve's latest signals, viewing Chairman Powell's "risk management" language as hawkish, while details suggest a dovish stance with potential for two more rate cuts this year [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Policy Stance - Following a 25 basis point rate cut, Powell attributed the decision to "risk management," which Citigroup interprets as a guide for the market to prepare for future actions [1] - Citigroup believes that Powell's comments indicate a baseline scenario of completing a total of 75 basis points in cuts by year-end [2] - The FOMC's statement included a new emphasis on rising "downside risks to employment," confirming concerns about the labor market [3] Group 2: Economic Projections and Rate Path - The dot plot revealed a downward shift in rate projections, with 10 out of 19 participants lowering their forecasts, suggesting three more 25 basis point cuts this year [3] - Despite a slight increase in the 2026 core PCE inflation forecast, the downward adjustment in the rate path highlights a dovish shift [3] - Citigroup expects the Fed to lower the policy rate to a range of 3.00-3.25% over the coming months, totaling a 125 basis point reduction in this easing cycle [6] Group 3: Employment vs. Inflation Concerns - The focus of the Fed's policy is shifting from inflation risks to employment risks, with Powell noting that hiring slowdowns are due to both supply and demand factors [4][5] - The report emphasizes that the cooling labor market will be a key driver for the Fed's future actions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lower the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% in the upcoming decision [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Citigroup economist Faraz Syed indicates that the overall tone of the upcoming statement may be neutral with a slight dovish inclination [1] - Forecast revisions suggest a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in the inflation rate by 2026, which may lead to a more dovish tone compared to previous statements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's opening remarks show a slight decrease in dovish tendencies, positioning overall as neutral [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - Despite two board members casting dovish dissenting votes, Powell's statements remain very neutral [1] - The possibility of a rate cut in September is still under discussion, but Powell's comments did not explicitly prepare the market for this potentiality [1] - **Future Events** - Upcoming meeting minutes and speeches at the Jackson Hole conference are expected to provide more clarity and potentially pave the way for September actions [1]

Group 1 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 64 basis points by the end of the year, an increase from the previous expectation of 51 basis points [1] - Risk assets have risen due to the interest rate cut expectations, with U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index declining, while European and U.S. stock index futures have seen slight increases [1] - The S&P 500 futures rose by approximately 0.38%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures increased by about 0.5% [10][11] Group 2 - European stocks mostly saw slight increases, with the German DAX up by 0.47% and the French CAC 40 up by 0.38% [2] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 1.6%, while the South Korean KOSPI fell by 0.9% [3] Group 3 - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by over 2 basis points [4] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by approximately 0.4%, reaching its lowest level since April 2022 [5] - The onshore and offshore Chinese yuan rose above 7.16 against the dollar, marking a new high in over seven months [6][16] Group 4 - Spot gold prices surpassed $3,350 per ounce, while spot silver saw a short-term increase of over 1% [7][19] - Crude oil prices, including WTI and Brent, rose by about 0.3% [8][21] Group 5 - Bitcoin increased by approximately 1.4%, and Ethereum rose by about 1.8% [9] - Micron Technology's strong earnings report indicated robust demand for AI-related chips, leading to gains in tech stocks such as Micron, AMD, and Nvidia [10][11] Group 6 - NATO leaders agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, which is expected to benefit defense contractors and lead to a significant rise in military orders [12] - The Australian drone defense company DroneShield saw its stock rise over 7%, with a cumulative increase of about 200% this year [12] Group 7 - The Asian currencies are experiencing inflows, with the Asian currency index reaching an eight-month high, as fund managers believe there is still room for appreciation [13] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated by approximately 0.37% against the dollar this year, with the offshore yuan rising over 2.3% [16]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates that Trump will appoint a "dovish" Federal Reserve chairman, reinforcing expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Fed, leading to declines in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, while stock futures in Europe and the U.S. show slight increases [1][9]. Market Performance - U.S. stock index futures all rose over 0.2% [2]. - European stocks mostly saw slight increases, with the German DAX up 0.47%, French CAC up 0.38%, and the UK FTSE down 0.13% [3]. - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan closed up 1.6%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose 0.8%. The South Korean composite index fell 0.9% [4]. Bond and Currency Markets - U.S. Treasury yields mostly declined, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down over 2 basis points [5]. - The dollar index fell approximately 0.4%, while the British pound rose about 0.5% and the euro increased by about 0.3% [6]. Commodity Prices - Spot gold rose approximately 0.3%, and spot silver increased by about 0.2% [7]. - Both U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rose about 0.3% [8]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin increased by approximately 1.4%, and Ethereum rose by about 1.8% [9]. Defense Sector - NATO leaders agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, responding to Trump's criticism of insufficient military spending, which is expected to benefit defense contractors with a significant increase in military orders. Asian defense stocks surged, with Australia's DroneShield rising over 7% and up about 200% year-to-date [10]. Asian Currency Market - Hot money is flowing into Asian markets, with Asian currencies against the dollar reaching an eight-month high, indicating potential for further appreciation. The dollar has declined over 8% this year due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies and its global standing [13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming volatility in the commodity market during the May Day holiday, highlighting the potential impacts of various economic indicators and events on different commodities [2][3] Group 1: Market Volatility and Indicators - The commodity market is experiencing high volatility ahead of the May Day holiday, with historical data showing an average jump of 2.3% on the first trading day after the holiday over the past five years [2] - Key economic events and data releases include China's April official manufacturing PMI, the U.S. ADP employment change, the U.S. PCE price index, and the U.S. Q1 GDP annualized growth rate, all of which are expected to influence various commodities [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data on May 2 is particularly significant, as weaker-than-expected employment figures could lead to a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially benefiting precious and base metals [2][3] Group 2: International Relations and Tariffs - A new round of talks between the U.S. and Iran is scheduled for May 3, which may impact oil and related products [3] - The U.S. is set to impose import tariffs on automotive parts produced overseas, which could affect commodities such as gold, rubber, aluminum, and copper [3]