Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lower the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% in the upcoming decision [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Outlook - Citigroup economist Faraz Syed indicates that the overall tone of the upcoming statement may be neutral with a slight dovish inclination [1] - Forecast revisions suggest a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in the inflation rate by 2026, which may lead to a more dovish tone compared to previous statements [1]

Group 1 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 64 basis points by the end of the year, an increase from the previous expectation of 51 basis points [1] - Risk assets have risen due to the interest rate cut expectations, with U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index declining, while European and U.S. stock index futures have seen slight increases [1] - The S&P 500 futures rose by approximately 0.38%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures increased by about 0.5% [10][11] Group 2 - European stocks mostly saw slight increases, with the German DAX up by 0.47% and the French CAC 40 up by 0.38% [2] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 1.6%, while the South Korean KOSPI fell by 0.9% [3] Group 3 - The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by over 2 basis points [4] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by approximately 0.4%, reaching its lowest level since April 2022 [5] - The onshore and offshore Chinese yuan rose above 7.16 against the dollar, marking a new high in over seven months [6][16] Group 4 - Spot gold prices surpassed $3,350 per ounce, while spot silver saw a short-term increase of over 1% [7][19] - Crude oil prices, including WTI and Brent, rose by about 0.3% [8][21] Group 5 - Bitcoin increased by approximately 1.4%, and Ethereum rose by about 1.8% [9] - Micron Technology's strong earnings report indicated robust demand for AI-related chips, leading to gains in tech stocks such as Micron, AMD, and Nvidia [10][11] Group 6 - NATO leaders agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, which is expected to benefit defense contractors and lead to a significant rise in military orders [12] - The Australian drone defense company DroneShield saw its stock rise over 7%, with a cumulative increase of about 200% this year [12] Group 7 - The Asian currencies are experiencing inflows, with the Asian currency index reaching an eight-month high, as fund managers believe there is still room for appreciation [13] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated by approximately 0.37% against the dollar this year, with the offshore yuan rising over 2.3% [16]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates that Trump will appoint a "dovish" Federal Reserve chairman, reinforcing expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Fed, leading to declines in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index, while stock futures in Europe and the U.S. show slight increases [1][9]. Market Performance - U.S. stock index futures all rose over 0.2% [2]. - European stocks mostly saw slight increases, with the German DAX up 0.47%, French CAC up 0.38%, and the UK FTSE down 0.13% [3]. - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan closed up 1.6%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose 0.8%. The South Korean composite index fell 0.9% [4]. Bond and Currency Markets - U.S. Treasury yields mostly declined, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down over 2 basis points [5]. - The dollar index fell approximately 0.4%, while the British pound rose about 0.5% and the euro increased by about 0.3% [6]. Commodity Prices - Spot gold rose approximately 0.3%, and spot silver increased by about 0.2% [7]. - Both U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil prices rose about 0.3% [8]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin increased by approximately 1.4%, and Ethereum rose by about 1.8% [9]. Defense Sector - NATO leaders agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, responding to Trump's criticism of insufficient military spending, which is expected to benefit defense contractors with a significant increase in military orders. Asian defense stocks surged, with Australia's DroneShield rising over 7% and up about 200% year-to-date [10]. Asian Currency Market - Hot money is flowing into Asian markets, with Asian currencies against the dollar reaching an eight-month high, indicating potential for further appreciation. The dollar has declined over 8% this year due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies and its global standing [13].

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming volatility in the commodity market during the May Day holiday, highlighting the potential impacts of various economic indicators and events on different commodities [2][3] Group 1: Market Volatility and Indicators - The commodity market is experiencing high volatility ahead of the May Day holiday, with historical data showing an average jump of 2.3% on the first trading day after the holiday over the past five years [2] - Key economic events and data releases include China's April official manufacturing PMI, the U.S. ADP employment change, the U.S. PCE price index, and the U.S. Q1 GDP annualized growth rate, all of which are expected to influence various commodities [2] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data on May 2 is particularly significant, as weaker-than-expected employment figures could lead to a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially benefiting precious and base metals [2][3] Group 2: International Relations and Tariffs - A new round of talks between the U.S. and Iran is scheduled for May 3, which may impact oil and related products [3] - The U.S. is set to impose import tariffs on automotive parts produced overseas, which could affect commodities such as gold, rubber, aluminum, and copper [3]