t 31 - 11 - 1 Friday of Special A JUDD 深圳商报·读创客户端记者 钟国斌 马年初八将迎来A股首个交易日，A股市场将如何运行？招商证券首席策略分析师张夏接受记者采访时表示，马年A股慢牛行情有望延续。"2026年上市公司 盈利增速有望进一步回升，预测非金融及两油A股上市公司2026年有望实现5%至10%的温和增长，盈利增速将会对A股市场上行产生关键动力。"他分析指 出，2026年A股整体仍处在盈利增速回升和估值温和扩张的阶段，预计上证指数上涨幅度介于10%至15%之间。 "A股本轮上行周期正从流动性驱动、赛道股占优的'牛市第二阶段'，向以盈利改善为驱动力的'牛市第三阶段'过渡。关键观察变量是PPI的触底回升，这通常 标志着企业盈利实质性改善"。张夏表示，在此过渡期内，市场风格将趋于均衡。 2026年以来，A股日均成交额保持在2万亿元上方。张夏认为，在A股过去两年有较好赚钱效应以及整体中高回报率资产荒的背景下，2026年A股资金供需有 望延续较大规模净流入，或达1.56万亿元，为实现慢牛带来流动性支持。 具体来看，资金供给端，公募基金将延续发行回暖趋势，如果能够有效突破扭亏阻力 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is positioning itself to lead in global technology by 2026, focusing on innovation-driven development and strengthening its technological capabilities through a new model of national governance and strategic investments in key areas [1][2]. Group 1: Investment in Research and Development - By 2025, China's R&D expenditure intensity is projected to reach 2.8%, surpassing the OECD average for the first time, with basic research funding accounting for 7.08% of total R&D, a historical high [2]. - The government aims to enhance the proportion of basic research funding in total R&D expenditures, narrowing the gap with developed countries [3]. Group 2: Focus on Core Technologies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes breakthroughs in critical core technologies across various sectors, including integrated circuits and advanced materials, to ensure industrial and national security [4]. - In the semiconductor sector, China plans to overcome key technological challenges and promote the large-scale application of domestic chips in consumer electronics and industrial control [4]. Group 3: Strategic Technological Forces - China will strengthen collaboration among national laboratories, research institutions, and leading technology enterprises to build a cohesive strategic technological force [5]. Group 4: New Quality Productivity - The development of new quality productivity is a key focus, with an emphasis on creating application scenarios and platforms for technology verification [7]. - The integration of AI into manufacturing and service sectors is expected to transform production processes and enhance service efficiency [7]. Group 5: International Cooperation and Innovation Community - China aims to foster international cooperation in technology to address global challenges, advocating for a fair and open international governance system [11]. - The establishment of regional innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area will promote collaborative development and resource sharing [12]. Group 6: Innovation Ecosystem Optimization - Continuous reforms in the scientific and technological system will be implemented to eliminate barriers to innovation and create a supportive environment for research and development [13]. - The promotion of a culture that values innovation and scientific achievement is essential for enhancing the overall innovation landscape [13]. Group 7: Financial Support for Technology - The government plans to enhance financial services for major technological projects and small to medium-sized tech enterprises, ensuring adequate funding for innovation [14][15]. - A comprehensive financial support system will be established to facilitate the financing of key technology sectors and projects [15].

Core Viewpoint - China is positioning itself to lead in global technology by enhancing its innovation capabilities and focusing on key areas such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and renewable energy by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Investment in Research and Development - By 2025, China's R&D expenditure intensity is expected to reach 2.8%, surpassing the OECD average for the first time, with basic research funding accounting for 7.08% of total R&D, a historical high [2]. - The government aims to increase the proportion of basic research funding in total R&D expenditures, narrowing the gap with developed countries [3]. Group 2: Focus on Key Core Technologies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for breakthroughs in critical core technologies across various sectors, including integrated circuits and advanced materials [4]. - In the semiconductor sector, China plans to overcome key technological challenges and promote the large-scale application of domestic chips in consumer electronics and industrial control [4]. Group 3: Strategic Technological Forces - China will strengthen collaboration among national laboratories, research institutions, and leading technology enterprises to build a robust strategic technology force [5]. Group 4: Talent Development and Education - A coordinated mechanism will be established to promote the integration of education and technology, fostering a new generation of innovative talent and teams [6]. Group 5: New Quality Productivity - The development of new quality productivity is highlighted as a key focus area, with an emphasis on applying technology to enhance industrial systems [7][8]. - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative aims to integrate AI into various sectors, transforming traditional manufacturing into intelligent manufacturing [7]. Group 6: International Cooperation and Regional Innovation - China will continue to promote international scientific cooperation to address global challenges, emphasizing the importance of collaboration alongside competition [10]. - The establishment of international technology innovation centers in regions like Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area will facilitate regional collaboration and resource sharing [11]. Group 7: Innovation Ecosystem Optimization - Continuous reforms will be implemented to eliminate barriers to innovation, creating an environment that encourages creativity and tolerates failure [12]. - The government will enhance the sharing of scientific resources and improve the efficiency of technology resource utilization [12]. Group 8: Financial Support for Technology - The government plans to strengthen financial services for major technological tasks and technology-based SMEs, ensuring adequate funding for innovation [13][14]. - A comprehensive financial support system will be established to facilitate the financing of key technology sectors [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the announcement of the application process for national project awards related to "Frontier Technology Research in Future Industries" and "High-end Scientific Instruments and Reagents Software Development" in the Minhang District, emphasizing support for innovative research and development in key technological areas [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Content - The policy supports research in future industries such as quantum technology, aerospace, synthetic biology, and new energy storage, encouraging interdisciplinary basic research and disruptive technology breakthroughs. Projects receiving national support will be awarded up to 20% of total project investment, with a maximum of 3 million yuan [1][3]. - There is a focus on promoting the independent research and market application of high-end scientific instruments, research reagents, and basic software, with similar financial support conditions as mentioned above [2][3]. Group 2: Support Standards and Conditions - Projects that receive national project approval in the fields of quantum technology, aerospace, synthetic biology, and new energy storage, as well as high-end scientific instruments, research reagents, and basic software, will be eligible for financial rewards of up to 20% of national funding, capped at 3 million yuan [3]. - Eligible applicants must be registered and taxed within the "Big Zero Bay" area, possess independent legal status, and have projects that have received national funding in the specified technological areas [4]. Group 3: Application Process - The application process is conducted online, eliminating the need for paper submissions. Applicants must log in to the Minhang Enterprise Corridor using the "Legal Person One Certificate" and follow the prompts to fill out the application form [6]. - Required attachments include scanned copies of project approval notifications, task books, and funding certificates corresponding to each level of the project [6]. Group 4: Application Notes - Applicants are responsible for the authenticity, completeness, validity, and legality of the materials submitted and are subject to supervision and inspection by relevant authorities [7].

Group 1 - The core view is that the trend of residents moving savings from deposits to diversified assets like equities, gold, and insurance will continue into 2026, supported by improving fundamentals and declining deposit rates [1][18] - The A-share market is expected to experience a main upward trend driven by liquidity and risk appetite recovery, with a focus on indices like the CSI 2000, STAR 50, and ChiNext [4][21] - The bond market is anticipated to see a downward trend in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to reach around 1.5% [5][22] Group 2 - The RMB/USD exchange rate is projected to peak at around 6.8 in the first half of 2026, with an average around 7 for the year [7][23] - The outlook for commodities includes a bullish stance on precious and non-ferrous metals, while maintaining a bearish view on crude oil, targeting $50 per barrel for WTI [8][24] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 4.8%, with quarterly expectations of 5.1%, 4.8%, 4.6%, and 4.7% [10][26] Group 3 - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with a deficit rate projected between 4.0% and 4.2%, corresponding to a deficit scale of approximately 5.89 trillion to 6.19 trillion yuan [11][27] - The monetary policy is anticipated to be moderately loose, with potential for 50 basis points of reserve requirement ratio cuts and 10 basis points of interest rate cuts throughout the year [12][28] - The demand for financing in 2026 is expected to improve, with new credit estimated at 17.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-end growth rate of 6.5% [15][30] Group 4 - Key investment opportunities in 2026 are expected to focus on core technology breakthroughs, integration of technology and industry, and the transformation of manufacturing towards high-end, intelligent, and green practices [16][31] - The investment landscape will likely benefit from policies supporting infrastructure and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on projects that enhance economic stability [11][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for tailored development of new productive forces, adhering to practical realities and specific analyses [1][4] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) advocates for a unified national strategy to optimize major productivity layouts and prevent redundant construction and "involution" competition [4] - Local advantages should be leveraged, encouraging regions to identify their roles in the national development framework and set reasonable goals based on their resources and industrial foundations [7] Group 2 - A modern infrastructure system is to be constructed, focusing on new infrastructure, comprehensive transportation systems, new energy infrastructure, and modern water networks [12] - There is a push for breakthroughs in key core technologies across various sectors, including integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing [14] - Policies will be implemented to promote green finance and consumption, facilitating the green and low-carbon transformation in key areas such as industry, urban construction, transportation, and energy [17] Group 3 - The establishment of an open, shared, and secure national integrated data market and technology market is prioritized, alongside the development of technology finance to enhance capital market functions [19]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of cultivating new quality productivity through high-level technological self-reliance and innovation, highlighting the role of technological breakthroughs in driving this development [1] Group 1: Strengthening Basic Research - The need to enhance basic research by balancing free exploration and goal-oriented approaches, increasing investment ratios, and providing stable support to generate more foundational research outcomes from "0 to 1" [1] Group 2: Promoting Original Innovation - The focus on strengthening original innovation by optimizing the environment for groundbreaking and disruptive innovations, aiming to produce more significant original achievements and foster original ideas, technologies, and industries [1] Group 3: Tackling Key Core Technologies - The emphasis on addressing key core technologies through leveraging the advantages of a new national system, implementing extraordinary measures, and advancing critical fields such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing to achieve decisive breakthroughs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is expected to be a pivotal moment for the A-share market, transitioning from liquidity-driven growth to profit-driven growth, with a focus on domestic demand recovery and technological self-reliance as the main investment themes [1][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The previous growth model reliant on real estate and infrastructure credit expansion has diminished, with government spending becoming the core marginal force driving total demand fluctuations since 2022 [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is set to initiate a positive policy tone, with expected fiscal spending expansion and infrastructure projects boosting investment, particularly in infrastructure, which will counterbalance export decline and promote domestic demand recovery [4]. - The year 2026 coincides with the U.S. midterm elections, historically leading to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in the U.S., which may resonate with China's economic policies and boost global demand for industrial metals and commodities [4]. Group 2: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Price increases are anticipated to be a dominant theme from Q4 2025 to 2026, reflecting both the recovery in demand and the cumulative effects of global monetary expansion since 2020 [5]. - The purchasing power of fiat currencies has significantly declined since 2020, leading to potential price surges in products experiencing supply-demand gaps [5]. - The A-share market is currently transitioning from a liquidity-driven phase to a profit-driven phase, with PPI recovery being a key variable indicating substantial improvement in corporate profits, particularly in cyclical sectors [6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investment strategies for the upcoming year should focus on the dual themes of domestic demand recovery and technological self-reliance, particularly in the domestic computing power industry, which is expected to accelerate commercialization and market share growth [7]. - The recovery of the consumer services sector is anticipated to be driven by multiple factors, including policy support and structural trends such as aging populations and the rise of younger consumer groups [7]. - Concerns regarding the valuation levels of the technology sector are deemed premature, with the belief that the current AI bubble is still manageable, suggesting that technology will remain a primary market theme in 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of key core technologies as national assets, crucial for promoting high-quality economic development and ensuring national security. It advocates for enhancing the capability to tackle key core technology challenges and maintaining control over technological development to provide robust support for high-quality growth [2][3]. Group 1: Importance of Key Core Technologies - Key core technologies are essential for national security and economic development, necessitating a focused effort to overcome challenges in critical areas such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing [3][4]. - Recent advancements in key core technologies include breakthroughs in 5G, Beidou navigation, high-speed rail, and nuclear power, but significant gaps remain in several critical fields that require intensified efforts for decisive breakthroughs [3][4]. Group 2: Strategies for Overcoming Challenges - Accelerating the development of a strong technological nation and modernizing China requires addressing the "bottleneck" issues in key areas, which is vital for national security and competitive advantage [4][5]. - A systematic approach to deploying key core technology initiatives is necessary, including optimizing major technological innovation organizational mechanisms and enhancing the collaboration of innovation forces, resource allocation, and talent development [4][5]. Group 3: Innovation and Research Focus - The root of the "bottleneck" technology issues lies in the inadequacy of foundational theoretical research, highlighting the need for original theoretical proposals and mastery of underlying technical principles to strengthen the foundation of technological innovation and industrial development [5]. - To build a modern industrial system, innovation chains must be aligned with industrial chains, focusing on enhancing capabilities in key areas while avoiding mere imitative innovation [5]. Group 4: Collaborative Efforts and Policy Recommendations - Forming a collaborative framework for advancing key core technology initiatives requires leveraging the advantages of a new type of national system, effectively coordinating government, market, and societal resources [5]. - Implementing extraordinary measures to strengthen goal orientation and demand-driven approaches, while enhancing collaboration among enterprises, universities, and research institutions, is essential for achieving significant technological breakthroughs [5].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of strengthening original innovation and key core technology breakthroughs to address the issue of dependency on external technologies and to overcome critical bottlenecks in various sectors [2][1] - It highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to promote integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, foundational software, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing as key focus areas for technological advancement [1] - The article outlines the strategic deployment of national major scientific tasks to enhance foundational research and increase investment in this area, aiming for a more systematic and forward-looking layout [1][2] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests optimizing the environment for original and disruptive innovation to produce more landmark original achievements [2] - It stresses the importance of transforming scientific and technological innovations into practical productivity, thereby solidifying the technological foundation for industrial development [2] - The article calls for a long-term and stable support system for foundational research to ensure sustained progress in key technological areas [1][2]