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晶采观察丨3个关键字,解读10月份国民经济“成绩单”
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-11-18 02:18
10月份国民经济"成绩单"出炉,怎么看?咱们开门见山。 首先,第一个关键字"稳"。10月份国民经济延续"总体平稳"态势,核心领域稳中有固。譬如,制造业向中高端稳步迈进、新兴产业快速发展。透过数据可 见,加快培育新动能已结出丰硕成果。前10个月,规模以上数字产业制造业增加值同比增长9.5%,为我国经济发展注入强劲动力。10月份国民经济"稳"的 底色之下,蕴含着坚实的增长底气,核心领域的稳健发展不仅有效抵御各类风险挑战,更积蓄了持续向上的发展后劲。更令人期待的是,一批"高含金 量"的未来产业正加速崛起。航空航天、低空经济等领域发展潜力巨大,量子科技、具身智能等方向前景广阔。这些产业与领域均被"十五五"规划建议重 点提及,未来有望成长为支撑经济高质量发展的新兴支柱产业。 这也解释了我要说的第二个关键字"进"。"进"是我国产业结构向高端化、智能化、绿色化进阶的关键,精准契合产业升级核心方向,是推动经济高质量发 展的关键发力点,绿色产品产量的显著增长印证了这一"进"阶成效。2025年10月份国民经济运行情况新闻发布会上,国家统计局相关负责人在发布会现场 表示,绿色转型成效显现,10月份新能源汽车、汽车用锂离子电池等绿色 ...
国常会部署“促消费稳投资” 新一轮降准降息有望实施
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 01:43
虽然10月份工业、消费、投资等数据出现回落,但其中也不乏一些结构性亮点。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖于14日表示,经济运行还面临不少风险挑战,但我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变化,宏观政策持续发力,市场 空间逐步拓展,新质生产力培育壮大,实现全年预期目标具备较多有利条件。 从生产端来看,10月规上工业增加值同比实际增长4.9%,增速较上月大幅放缓1.6个百分点。其中,新兴产业发展壮大,引领支撑作用日益增强。1~10月 份,规模以上数字产业制造业增加值同比增长9.5%,智能设备制造、电子元器件及设备制造行业增加值分别增长11.1%和12.3%。付凌晖指出,还要看到, 新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等发展潜力巨大,量子科技、生物制造、具身智能等前景广阔,未来有望成为新兴支柱产业,将有力支撑新动能发展 壮大。 从需求端来看,1~10月份,社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.3%,服务零售额增长5.3%。服务消费增长日益成为居民消费的重要增长点。 从新兴消费看,数字消费和绿色消费持续壮大,有力促进消费增长。1~10月份,全国网上零售额同比增长9.6%,即时零售交易额和直播电商交易额均保持 两位数增长。此外,我 ...
国常会部署“促消费稳投资” 财政及货币政策有望加力
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-16 16:36
Economic Overview - The slowdown in external demand, weakened domestic momentum, and high base effects from the previous year have led to fluctuations in major economic indicators since the fourth quarter, necessitating an increase in macroeconomic policy support [1] - In October, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from September; retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from September; fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 408.914 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year [1] Policy Measures - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to discuss the implementation of "two major" constructions, focusing on enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods and promoting consumption policies [1][6] - The meeting emphasized the need to rationally arrange project construction and fund disbursement, strengthen project and fund matching, and encourage more private capital participation [1][6] Consumption Trends - Despite a decline in industrial, consumption, and investment data in October, there are structural highlights, particularly in service consumption, which has become an important growth point [3] - From January to October, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3%, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% [3] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with private fixed asset investment down by 4.5% [4] - The slowdown in investment growth is attributed to various factors, including a complex external environment, fierce domestic market competition, and weak corporate profitability [4][5] - Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate has decelerated significantly, leading to a rare cumulative year-on-year negative value for two consecutive months [4][7] Emerging Consumption - Digital and green consumption are expanding, significantly contributing to consumption growth, with online retail sales increasing by 9.6% year-on-year [4] - The ongoing upgrade in consumption structure is creating new opportunities in sectors like cultural tourism and healthcare, alongside the rapid development of the silver economy and first-time economy [4] "Two Major" Construction - The "two major" construction initiative is positioned as a key driver for effective investment and the cultivation of new productive forces, with a planned investment of 800 billion yuan for 1,459 projects by 2025 [6][7] - This initiative aims to enhance strategic and safety capabilities in key areas, including ecological restoration and major infrastructure projects [6][7] Supply and Demand Adaptability - Enhancing supply and demand adaptability is crucial for releasing consumption potential and facilitating economic circulation [8] - The focus is shifting from merely stimulating consumption to achieving a dynamic balance and positive interaction between supply and demand [8][9]
国常会部署“促消费稳投资”,新一轮降准降息有望实施
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-16 12:50
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is expected to intensify fiscal policies to boost consumption and stabilize economic growth amid challenges such as slowing external demand and weakened domestic momentum [1][2]. Economic Indicators - In October, the industrial added value increased by 4.9% year-on-year, slowing down by 1.6 percentage points from September; retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.9%, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from September [1]. - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 4089.14 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year [1]. Consumption Trends - Service consumption is becoming a significant growth point, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.3% year-on-year and service retail sales growing by 5.3% from January to October [3]. - Digital and green consumption are expanding, with online retail sales rising by 9.6% year-on-year [4]. Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment has shown a rare cumulative year-on-year negative value for two consecutive months, primarily due to a slowdown in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments [5]. - Despite the nominal decline, fixed asset investment remains positive when adjusted for price factors, indicating its continued role in economic growth [5]. Policy Measures - The "Two Major" construction initiative is highlighted as a key strategy for expanding effective investment and nurturing new productive forces, with a planned allocation of 800 billion yuan for 1459 projects by 2025 [6][7]. - The government aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand to release consumption potential and improve economic circulation [8]. Future Outlook - The interaction between new supply and new demand is expected to foster a virtuous cycle of potential consumption and beneficial investment, enhancing the internal dynamics of the domestic economy [9].
新质生产力培育壮大 商品和服务零售持续增长 10月经济运行保持稳中有进态势
新需求不断扩大 国家统计局11月14日发布数据显示,10月份,全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%,社会消费品零 售总额46291亿元,同比增长2.9%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示,10月份,国民经济保持总体平 稳、稳中有进发展态势。下阶段,要全方位扩大国内需求,着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,积 极推动宏观政策持续落地增效,全面深化改革开放,进一步强化创新驱动,促进经济质的有效提升和量 的合理增长。 生产需求平稳增长 数据显示,10月份,生产需求平稳增长。 生产供给继续增长。付凌晖表示,工业生产总体稳定,10月份规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.9%,继 续保持总体稳定增长。其中,装备制造业增加值增长8%,明显快于规模以上工业增长,对规模以上工 业增长支撑作用明显。国庆和中秋假期叠加带动相关服务业增长加快,10月份住宿和餐饮业生产指数同 比增长3.9%,比上月加快2.6个百分点。 国家统计局工业司首席统计师孙晓分析,10月份,全国规模以上工业生产稳中有进,多数行业、产品实 现增长,(下转A02版) (上接A01版)产业结构优化升级,新质生产力培育壮大,装备制造业、高技术制造业快速发展,工业 经济高质量 ...
国家统计局:三方面积极变化彰显我国加快培育新动能成效
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-14 05:12
新华财经北京11月14日电(记者安娜)加快培育新动能,促进经济结构优化升级,有利于促进经济发 展。今年以来,我国在新动能成长和经济结构调整方面有哪些成效?国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖14日 在国新办发布会上介绍了三方面相关积极变化。 一是市场需求焕新提升,新需求不断扩大。 从消费看,随着科技进步和消费理念转变,消费新业态、新模式、新场景不断拓展,数字、绿色、智能 产品消费快速壮大,服务消费稳步扩大。1至10月份,实物商品网上零售额占整个社会消费品零售总额 的比重达到25.2%,比1至9月份提高0.2个百分点。高能效等级家电、新能源汽车零售额均保持较快增 长。智能家电、智能家居等产品需求不断扩大,文体休闲服务类、旅游咨询租赁服务类零售额均保持两 位数增长。 从投资看,聚焦关键领域和薄弱环节扩大有效投资,高技术领域投资较快增长,新能源、新材料、人工 智能等领域投资不断扩大,投资质效不断提升。1至10月份,航空、航天器及设备制造业投资同比增长 19.7%,信息服务业投资增长32.7%。 (文章来源:新华财经) 三是新兴产业发展壮大,引领支撑作用日益增强。 数字经济快速发展,绿色低碳转型持续深入,人工智能赋能产业发展, ...