市场走势 研究早观点 2025 年 7 月 21 日 星期一 【今日要点】 【山证中小盘】捷昌驱动深度报告-国产线性驱动领军企业，进军机器 人打开成长空间 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,534.48 | 0.50 | | 深证成指 | | 10,913.84 | 0.37 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,058.55 | 0.60 | | 中小板指 | | 6,788.36 | 0.24 | | 创业板指 | | 2,277.15 | 0.34 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,007.53 | 0.19 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 【今日要点】 【山证中小盘】捷昌驱动深度报告-国产线性驱动领军企业，进军机器人打开成长空间 潘宁河 panninghe@sxzq.com 【投资要点】 研究早观点 请务必阅读最 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][7]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leading player in the linear drive industry, with over 20 years of experience and a strong market position. It is expanding into robotics, which presents new growth opportunities [4][6]. - The demand for linear drive products is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing application in various sectors such as smart homes, healthcare, and industrial automation [5][46]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the global trend towards automation and smart technology, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.34% for the linear drive market from 2023 to 2027 [46][67]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the linear drive sector for over 20 years, holding a solid position as an industry leader. It was founded in 2000 and went public in 2018. The company has developed a diverse product range and has established subsidiaries in various regions [4][18]. - The management team is experienced, with a concentrated ownership structure that supports stability and strategic direction [10][29]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.75% from 2017 to 2024. In 2024, the revenue reached 3.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [8][32]. - The net profit for 2024 was 282 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery with a year-on-year growth of 36.9% [8][32]. Market Demand - The linear drive market is expanding across various applications, including smart offices, healthcare, and smart homes. The global market for linear drive products is projected to reach 75.3 billion yuan by 2027 [46][67]. - The smart office segment is expected to grow due to increasing health awareness among workers, with the market for linear drive products in this area projected to reach 321 billion yuan by 2027 [55][58]. Growth Opportunities - The company is actively investing in robotics, having established a joint venture focused on developing robotic components, which is anticipated to open new growth avenues [6][4]. - The aging population and the demand for smart healthcare solutions are expected to drive the need for linear drive systems in medical devices, with a projected market size of 27.9 billion yuan by 2027 [59][67].

Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The report indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may become more critical tools in trade conflicts, potentially replacing tariffs [1][17] - Domestic foreign trade enterprises anticipate that the US-China trade negotiations may face significant challenges, requiring ongoing risk management for exports to the US [1][17] - If tariffs fail to achieve their intended competitive goals, the US government may resort to non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation, drawing parallels to historical trade competition phases [1][17] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Overview - The structured financing market for local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) is under scrutiny, with ABS being a potential solution to alleviate financing pressures amid tightening regulations [3][4] - The development of the LGFV ABS market has evolved through several phases, influenced heavily by policy changes and market conditions [4] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - XianDao Intelligent (先导智能) is positioned to benefit from the global electric vehicle trend, with expected net profits of 10.57 billion, 17.02 billion, and 22.28 billion from 2025 to 2027, corresponding to dynamic PEs of 41, 19, and 15 times [8][9] - Mercury Home Textiles (水星家纺) is expected to see significant growth in its memory pillow segment, with sales projected to rise from 1.14 million to 6.44 million by 2027, and net profits adjusted to 3.99 billion and 4.48 billion for 2025 and 2026 [9] - Hanlan Environment (瀚蓝环境) has completed the acquisition of Yuefeng, enhancing its growth potential and cash flow, with net profit forecasts of 18.60 billion, 21.17 billion, and 22.14 billion for 2025 to 2027 [10] - Maiwei Co., Ltd. (迈为股份) plans to raise nearly 20 billion through convertible bonds for its perovskite tandem solar cell project, with expected annual revenue of 40 billion post-completion [11][12] - Ideal Auto (理想汽车) has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting 1436 billion, 2233 billion, and 2362 billion, with net profits of 82 billion, 137 billion, and 154 billion [13] - Keda Li (科达利) is projected to achieve net profits of 18.8 billion, 23.2 billion, and 27.9 billion from 2025 to 2027, benefiting from its strong market position in structural components [14] - Jiechang Drive (捷昌驱动) is expanding into the robotics sector, with net profit forecasts of 3.92 billion, 4.97 billion, and 6.40 billion for 2025 to 2027, driven by growth in various downstream markets [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The company has launched a 2025 stock incentive plan, aiming to align employee interests with company growth, with performance targets set for net profit growth of 6% annually from 2025 to 2027 [3][13]. - The company has a strong foothold in the linear drive market, with over 30 years of experience and a global market share exceeding 30% in electric sofa push rods [4]. - The linear drive market is projected to grow significantly, with the global market size reaching approximately 151.9 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [7]. - The company is expanding into the humanoid robot sector, leveraging its core technology in linear drives, which is essential for robotic joints [15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1992, the company specializes in the research, production, and sales of linear drive systems, with applications in various sectors including furniture and automotive [4]. - The company has made significant strides in international markets, establishing subsidiaries in North America and Europe, and has a production base in Vietnam [4]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth from 2021 to 2024, with revenues of 17.2 billion yuan in 2021, declining to 11.7 billion yuan in 2022, and recovering to 13.4 billion yuan in 2024 [5]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 0.9 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 19.4% compared to the previous year [5][18]. Market Potential - The smart home market is expected to grow from 84.5 billion USD in 2022 to 138.9 billion USD by 2026, with a CAGR of 10.4%, driving demand for linear drive systems [7]. - The market for electric tailgates in the automotive sector is projected to reach approximately 9.63 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 34.15% from 2019 to 2023 [11]. Competitive Landscape - The global linear drive market is concentrated, with leading companies including Linak and Dewert, while the company holds an 8% market share [9]. - Domestic brands are expected to gain market share through advantages in production capacity and customer responsiveness [10]. Research and Development - The company has a robust R&D team of over 300 engineers and holds numerous patents related to linear drive technology [14]. - The company is positioned to leverage its technological expertise to enter the humanoid robot market, aiming for a second growth curve [15]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 15.2 billion yuan, 17.2 billion yuan, and 19.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.0 billion yuan, 1.2 billion yuan, and 1.5 billion yuan [16][19].

Market Overview - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3374.87, up 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.13% to 10288.08 [2][9] - The overall market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6483.05 billion, with a PE ratio of 11.89 and a PB ratio of 1.23 [3] Industry Dynamics - The price of storage chips has shown a significant increase, with DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 average prices rising by 10.11%, 4.32%, and 0.00% respectively compared to the previous week [29] - The battery production in April reached 118.2 GWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 49.0%, with lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for 80.0% of the total production [32][34] Company Tracking - Guai Bao Pet (301498.SZ) is set to double its production capacity in Thailand with a new factory expected to start operations in June 2025, following an investment of approximately 200 million RMB [36][37] - Zai Jing Pharmaceutical-U (688266.SH) has received acceptance for its new drug application for JAK inhibitor for severe alopecia, marking a significant step in its product pipeline [38] Financial Performance - Lu Si Co. (832419.BJ) reported a revenue of 778 million RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.68%, with a net profit of 78 million RMB, up 14.57% [50][51] - Jie Chang Drive reported a revenue of 3.652 billion RMB in 2024, a 20.37% increase, with a net profit of 282 million RMB, reflecting a 36.91% growth [55][56] Investment Outlook - The pet food industry is expected to see continued growth driven by rising consumer spending and demographic changes, with projected revenues for Guai Bao Pet reaching 921 million RMB in 2025 [53] - Jie Chang Drive is actively expanding into the humanoid robot sector, which is anticipated to be a new growth area, with projected revenues of 4.272 billion RMB in 2025 [58]