证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-06-04 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20250603：复盘 200 年，贸易战何去何从？ 通过复盘自 1800 年至今 200 余年的全球贸易历史，以及结合近期东部沿 海省份"造船厂-船东-船公司-货代及外贸公司-实体制造业"外贸产业链 调研反馈，我们的研究表明： 首先，复盘全球贸易历史看，汇率、非关 税壁垒可能取代关税成为更加关键的"贸易交锋"工具。 其次，国内多 数外贸企业认为由于在根本矛盾上的冲突，中美贸易谈判过程未来或将 "一波三折"，企业可能需要持续控制对美出口风险敞口。 再次，如果加 征关税无法实现美方贸易竞争的主要目的，那么参考过去 200 年全球贸 易历史特别是 1970s-1990s 美日德贸易竞争阶段的美方举措，未来美国政 府可能在非关税壁垒、汇率等方面发起更多挑战。 最后，在控制对美出 口风险敞口的过程中，拓展非美出口、"出口转内销"、"出海"等关键手 段仍待企业端摸索落地方式，年内外贸前景仍面临高度不确定性。 宏观深度报告 20250602：人民币汇率：会否升 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock's performance in the next 12 months [16]. Core Insights - The company has launched a 2025 stock incentive plan, aiming to align employee interests with company growth, with performance targets set for net profit growth of 6% annually from 2025 to 2027 [3][13]. - The company has a strong foothold in the linear drive market, with over 30 years of experience and a global market share exceeding 30% in electric sofa push rods [4]. - The linear drive market is projected to grow significantly, with the global market size reaching approximately 151.9 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [7]. - The company is expanding into the humanoid robot sector, leveraging its core technology in linear drives, which is essential for robotic joints [15]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1992, the company specializes in the research, production, and sales of linear drive systems, with applications in various sectors including furniture and automotive [4]. - The company has made significant strides in international markets, establishing subsidiaries in North America and Europe, and has a production base in Vietnam [4]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth from 2021 to 2024, with revenues of 17.2 billion yuan in 2021, declining to 11.7 billion yuan in 2022, and recovering to 13.4 billion yuan in 2024 [5]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 0.9 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 19.4% compared to the previous year [5][18]. Market Potential - The smart home market is expected to grow from 84.5 billion USD in 2022 to 138.9 billion USD by 2026, with a CAGR of 10.4%, driving demand for linear drive systems [7]. - The market for electric tailgates in the automotive sector is projected to reach approximately 9.63 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 34.15% from 2019 to 2023 [11]. Competitive Landscape - The global linear drive market is concentrated, with leading companies including Linak and Dewert, while the company holds an 8% market share [9]. - Domestic brands are expected to gain market share through advantages in production capacity and customer responsiveness [10]. Research and Development - The company has a robust R&D team of over 300 engineers and holds numerous patents related to linear drive technology [14]. - The company is positioned to leverage its technological expertise to enter the humanoid robot market, aiming for a second growth curve [15]. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 15.2 billion yuan, 17.2 billion yuan, and 19.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.0 billion yuan, 1.2 billion yuan, and 1.5 billion yuan [16][19].

证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 14 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3374.87 | 0.17 | | 深证成指 | 10288.08 | -0.13 | | 创业板指 | 2062.26 | -0.12 | | 科创 50 | 1009.68 | -0.15 | | 北证 50 | 1405.80 | -0.94 | | 沪深 300 | 3896.26 | 0.15 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 648305 | 507200 | 11.89 | 1.23 | | 深证成指 | 218426 | 185004 | 20.09 | 2.12 | | 创业板指 | 58061 | 45930 | 26.95 | 3.76 | | 科创 50 | 34795 | 22753 | 55.19 | 4.20 | | 北证 ...

出口链系列 02：关税调整影响及企业近况解读 20250512 摘要 • 春风动力四轮车美国市场销售贡献显著，约占总收入 20%，毛利贡献达 30%，但面临关税调整风险。公司通过突击出口、准备库存和增加墨西哥 产能等措施积极应对关税变化，以确保供应链稳定和市场份额。 • 捷昌驱动对美敞口主要集中在线性驱动产品，受关税直接影响的营收占比 不到 10%。公司通过海外产能布局（马来西亚和美国工厂）和与客户协商 提价等方式，有效抵御了关税波动，降低了负面影响。 • 捷昌驱动的估值核心驱动因素在于人形机器人业务，特别是线性执行器和 灵巧手电机模组。关税问题缓解后，人形机器人业务进展可能使其估值更 具优势，存在较大的提升空间。 • 浙江鼎力作为高空作业平台龙头企业，前期受中美关税影响较大，目前股 价虽有所回升，但仍低于关税事件前水平。公司主要产能位于国内，暂无 海外建厂计划，通过加紧对美发货应对关税。 • 五金工具行业是机械板块中对美敞口最高的行业，中国企业在全球市场中 扮演代工厂角色。关税政策变化导致产能向东南亚转移，龙头企业有望通 过海外产能转移抢占市场份额。 Q&A 中美关税缓和对机械行业出口企业的影响如何？ 中美 ...