期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-07-16 上半年经济稳步增长 ——中国 2025 年 6 月经济数据图景 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 7 月 15 日国家统计局数据显示，初步核算，上半年国内生产总值 660536 亿元，按不变 价格计算，同比增长 5.3%。分产业看，第一产业增加值 31172 亿元，同比增长 3.7%； 第二产业增加值 239050 亿元，增长 5.3%；第三产业增加值 390314 亿元，增长 5.5%。 分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长 5.4%，二季度增长 5.2%。从环比看，二季度 国内生产总值增长 1.1%。 核心观点 通货膨胀：6 月 CPI 同比由降转涨 0.1%，结束连续 4 个月下降趋势。CPI 整体呈现 "能 源拖弱、食品分化、工业品与服务双驱动" 特征，需警惕猪肉产能过剩及 PPI 工业通缩 向消费端传导的风险。6 月 PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.6%，环比降 0.4%。上半年 PPI 呈现 "内需疲软拖累加深、新旧动 ...

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张智 北京报道 连续下降4个月后，CPI调头转升。 国家统计局7月9日发布数据显示，6月，CPI同比上涨0.1%，是连续下降4个月后首次转升；环比下降 0.1%，降幅收窄。PPI同比下降3.6%，环比下降0.4%。从上半年总体来看，CPI比去年同期下降0.1%， PPI较去年同期下降2.8%。 对于当前总体物价形势，民生银行首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬对《华夏时报》记者表示，在输入性 因素的支撑下，6月CPI边际有所改善，但PPI持续承压，整体物价低位运行态势不改，显示国内有效需 求有待进一步提振。 "政策层面，'反内卷'措施逐步落地，光伏、锂电等行业价格在6月探底，政策拐点显现，预计后续价格 将出现修复性反弹。"华西证券宏观首席分析师肖金川对本报记者表示。 CPI同比回升 从同比来看，6月CPI上涨0.1%，为连续下降4个月后转升。 "食品价格降幅小于季节性。受高温、降雨较常年同期偏多影响，食品价格环比下降0.4%，降幅小于季 节性水平0.5个百分点。6月CPI环比上涨0.1%，食品价格跌幅较往年同期明显收窄，鲜菜价格大幅上 涨，显示季节性及政策干预对CPI形成 ...

Group 1: CPI Trends - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase of 0.1% year-on-year after four months of negative growth, influenced by the recovery of industrial product prices [1][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 14-month high, indicating effective policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption [1][3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, which is an increase in the rate of decline by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] - The decline in PPI is attributed to seasonal price decreases in domestic raw material manufacturing, increased green electricity leading to lower energy prices, and price pressures in export-oriented industries [5][6] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - In the automotive sector, prices for both gasoline and new energy vehicle manufacturing increased by 0.5% and 0.3% month-on-month, respectively, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 1.9 and 0.4 percentage points [1] - The photovoltaic equipment and electronic components manufacturing prices fell by 10.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points [1] - High-tech industries such as integrated circuit packaging and testing saw price increases of 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a growth in new production capacities and innovation [6] Group 4: Policy Implications - The government aims to balance the expansion of domestic demand with supply-side structural reforms to improve market price order and promote reasonable price recovery [7][8] - The effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, particularly those supporting the real estate sector, will significantly influence future industrial product price trends [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a recovery in CPI year-on-year growth and an expansion in the year-on-year decline of PPI, influenced by various seasonal and input factors [1][2][4]. CPI Analysis - In March, the CPI year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, while the core CPI significantly rebounded to 0.5% [1][4]. - The main drag on the CPI was food prices, which fell by 1.4% month-on-month, contributing approximately 60% to the total CPI decline [6][4]. - Seasonal factors, such as warmer weather leading to increased fresh food supply, and a tourism off-season causing a drop in travel-related prices, were significant contributors to the CPI's month-on-month decline [1][6]. - Excluding food and energy, the core CPI showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, indicating a potential positive impact from consumption-boosting policies [1][4]. PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline expanded to -2.5% in March, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with production materials experiencing a decline of -2.8% [9][10]. - Input factors, including falling international oil prices and weakened domestic demand, significantly influenced the PPI's month-on-month and year-on-year performance [2][10]. - Specific industries, such as coal mining and oil extraction, saw notable price declines, with coal mining prices dropping by 14.9% [9][10]. - Despite the overall decline, some high-tech industries showed price improvements, with educational and pharmaceutical equipment prices increasing by 7.6% and 6.1%, respectively [9][10].