公 司 研 究 巴比食品（605338.SH） 门店内生外延同步推进，单店收入触底反弹 公 司 事件：公司发布了 2025 年半年度报告，期内实现营业收入 8.35 亿元，同比 +9.31%；实现归母净利润为 1.32 元，同比+18.08%；实现扣非归母净利润为 1.01 亿元，同比+15.29%。其中公司 2025Q2 营收为 4.65 亿元，同比+13.5%； 单季度归母净利润为 0.94 亿元，同比+31.42%；单季度扣非归母净利润 0.62 亿 元，同比+24.28%。公司整体业绩稳步提升，归母净利润同比大幅提升表现亮 眼。 团餐业务蓄力成长，门店增长稳步向前 财 报 点 评 渠道端：公司 2025H1 特许加盟销售/直营门店销售/团餐销售收入分别为 6.13/0.11/1.99 亿元，同比+7%/+0.44%/+18.99%，公司 2025Q2 单季度特许加盟 销 售 / 直 营 门 店 销 售 / 团 餐 销 售 收 入 分 别 为 3.48/0.05/1.06 亿 元 ， 同 比 +10.49%/+14.12%/+26.2%。团餐业务持续高增，其中自去年新开拓的定制馅料 销售渠道表现亮眼，2 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is showing signs of recovery as companies actively launch new products to adapt to changing consumer demands. The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan liquor index is 18.51X, which is at a reasonable low level compared to the past decade [2][11] - The beverage sector, particularly beer and soft drinks, is expected to benefit from upcoming consumption promotion policies and adjustments to alcohol bans, which will drive sales recovery [3][12] - The pre-processed food and seasoning sectors are leading the market, with a focus on companies that can enhance efficiency and market share through cost reduction and product diversification [13][19] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From July 21 to July 25, the food and beverage sector increased by 0.74%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.69%. Notable increases were seen in pre-processed foods (+1.97%) and health products (+1.88%) [1][20] Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor sector increased by 0.94%, outperforming the overall food and beverage sector. Key players like Tianyoude Liquor saw significant gains, potentially linked to local infrastructure investments [2][11] - Recommendations include strong alpha companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, as well as beta companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye [2][19] Beer and Beverage Sector Insights - The beer sector rose by 1.06%, with Budweiser Asia and Chongqing Beer leading the gains. Management changes at Zhujiang Beer are expected to positively impact the company [3][12] - The soft drink sector also performed well, with notable increases from brands like Nongfu Spring (+8.1%) [3][14] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, strong alpha companies benefiting from market concentration include Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [19] - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with cost reduction and market share enhancement strategies are recommended, including Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [19] Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE ratio is 21.1X, ranking it 21st among primary industries. The highest valuations are seen in other liquor (55.83X) and health products (48.77X) [26][27]

Group 1 - Company HaiLu Heavy Industry expects a net profit of 190 million to 205 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.92% to 60.68% [1] - Company HuaCe Navigation anticipates a net profit of 320 million to 335 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 38.93% to 46.04% [2] - Company HaoHua Technology projects a net profit of 590 million to 650 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 59.30% to 75.50% [3] Group 2 - Company JiZhi Co. received government subsidies totaling 4.6395 million yuan, accounting for 12.14% of its net profit for 2024 [4] - Company QianYuan Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received approval for the listing of the raw material drug Ebastine, which is used for treating allergic rhinitis and chronic urticaria [5] - Company Anhui Construction won two major engineering projects, with a total estimated investment of 80.85 billion yuan [7] Group 3 - Company FuJian Cement expects a net profit of 20.67 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [9] - Company LangBo Technology forecasts a net profit of 18 million to 20 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.51% to 66.12% [11] - Company JuHua Co. anticipates a net profit of 1.97 billion to 2.13 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 136% to 155% [13][14] Group 4 - Company Jiangsu Guoxin's subsidiary has officially put into operation a 1 million kilowatt coal-fired power generation unit [15] - Company XiNing Special Steel's controlling shareholder plans to issue up to 578 million shares to raise funds for working capital [16] - Company FengHuo Communication received approval from the CSRC for a stock issuance to specific objects [18] Group 5 - Company WeiLi Medical's subsidiary obtained a medical device registration certificate for a disposable hydrophilic coated visible nasogastric tube [23] - Company ShuGuang Co. reported a 377.22% increase in vehicle production in June, despite a 59.51% drop in sales [24] - Company TaiYang Energy announced a total power generation of 4.159 billion kWh in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.40% [26] Group 6 - Company KeMing Food reported a 111.22% increase in sales revenue from live pigs in June [28] - Company Zhejiang Jiaokao's subsidiaries won contracts for the Hangzhou-Chuzhou Expressway project, totaling over 4.2 billion yuan [30] - Company Huayou Cobalt expects a net profit of 2.6 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.62% to 67.59% [32] Group 7 - Company YingLian Co. anticipates a net profit of 23 million to 28 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 360.57% to 460.70% [34] - Company DongAn Power expects a net profit of 3.52 million to 5.28 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [36] - Company RuiSiKangDa's chairman and director are under criminal coercive measures due to alleged information disclosure violations [38] Group 8 - Company ZhouMing Technology's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 1.99% [39] - Company TuoXin Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received approval for the listing of the raw material drug Citicoline [40] - Company TianYu Bio reported a 61.57% increase in live pig sales in June [41] Group 9 - Company WeiNing Health received a government subsidy of 11 million yuan, accounting for 12.52% of its audited net profit for 2024 [42] - Company FuShiLai plans to repurchase shares worth between 20 million and 40 million yuan [43] - Company HuiLong New Materials' controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% [44] Group 10 - Company DongFeng Co. reported a 20.79% decrease in vehicle production in June [46] - Company BlueSi Technology set the H-share issuance price at 18.18 HKD per share [45] - Company Shanghai XiBa plans to participate in the auction for lithium sulfide business assets with a starting price of 110 million yuan [47] Group 11 - Company ShenNan Electric A expects a net loss of 21 million to 27 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [48] - Company MuYuan Co. reported a 58.35% increase in live pig sales in June [49] - Company BaoTong Technology's controlling shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 2.36% [50] Group 12 - Company ZhuoYi Information's employee stock ownership platform plans to reduce its stake by up to 1.88% [51] - Company ChuangWei Digital expects a net profit of 43 million to 63 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 65.35% to 76.35% [52] - Company JinLing Mining anticipates a net profit of 133 million to 169 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 66.48% to 111.54% [53]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [58]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector showed a slight increase, primarily affected by the decline in the liquor segment. In May 2025, the sector's overall performance was a 0.25% increase, with significant net outflows from major funds totaling 15.43 billion yuan, while small investors showed a net inflow of 15.57 billion yuan, indicating a positive sentiment among retail investors [5][7]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector has decreased slightly, currently at 21.50 times earnings, which is at a ten-year historical low. The liquor segment's valuation is even lower at 19.06 times [18][23]. - In May 2025, over 70% of the listed companies in the food and beverage sector saw their stock prices rise, with notable increases in other liquor, health products, snacks, dairy, and soft drinks [23][24]. - Investment in the food and beverage manufacturing sector has continued to grow significantly, with fixed asset investments in food manufacturing up 16.6% year-on-year as of April 2025, compared to a 4% increase in overall social fixed asset investments [27][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight increase of 0.25% in May 2025, heavily influenced by the liquor segment's decline. Major funds saw a net outflow of 15.43 billion yuan, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 15.57 billion yuan [5][7]. - The sector's performance was better than the same period last year, with significant gains in other liquor, health products, soft drinks, baking, and pre-processed foods, which rose by 20.71%, 19.62%, 10.99%, 8.25%, and 6.42% respectively [8][11]. 2. Valuation - As of May 31, 2025, the food and beverage sector's valuation is at 21.50 times earnings, slightly down from 21.59 times the previous month, marking a ten-year low. The liquor segment's valuation is at 19.06 times, while health products, snacks, and other segments exceed 30 times [18][23]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - In May 2025, 90 out of 127 listed companies in the food and beverage sector reported stock price increases, with a rise rate of 70.87%. Notable performers included companies in the liquor, health products, dairy, and snack sectors [23][24]. 4. Investment Trends - The food and beverage manufacturing sector's investment growth has continued to exceed the overall social investment growth, with fixed asset investments in food manufacturing up 16.6% year-on-year as of April 2025 [27][31]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in soft drinks, health products, baking, beer, and snacks for June 2025, highlighting the potential for growth in these segments [52][55].

Market Performance Review - The liquor sector underperformed compared to the overall food and beverage sector and the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 2.82% during the week from May 19 to May 23 [1][2] - Other beverage categories, such as beer and soft drinks, showed positive growth, with increases of 0.98% and 1.97% respectively [1][3] Regulatory Impact - The newly revised "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste in Party and Government Organs" specifies that alcoholic beverages are not allowed during work meals, which has limited impact on the liquor sector as the proportion of government consumption in overall liquor sales is already low [1][2] Young Consumer Strategy - Major liquor companies like Moutai, Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao are focusing on strategies to attract younger consumers, which is seen as a short-term demand growth direction and a long-term measure to prevent a consumption gap in the liquor market [1][2] Shareholder Confidence - Guizhou Moutai held a shareholder meeting emphasizing confidence in the company's quality, culture, innovation capabilities, and service awareness, reflecting the leadership's determination [2] Upcoming Catalysts - With the Dragon Boat Festival approaching, attention is drawn to indicators such as payment collection and price performance from liquor companies that could act as catalysts for the sector [1][2] Valuation Insights - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the Shenwan liquor index is 19.52X, which is considered relatively low at 11.85% compared to the past decade, suggesting potential for valuation recovery with the introduction of consumer stimulus policies [2] Other Food and Beverage Trends - The pre-processed food sector showed positive performance, with specific stocks like Haitian Flavor Industry benefiting from H-share issuance, indicating a favorable outlook [4] - The beverage sector is expected to improve as warmer weather approaches and consumer promotion policies are implemented, which may enhance demand in the restaurant and nightlife sectors [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the importance of boosting consumption as a key driver for economic growth, with the food and beverage sector expected to benefit significantly from this focus on domestic demand [1] - The white liquor sector is projected to achieve total revenue of 441.94 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.66%, with net profit expected to reach 166.85 billion yuan, also up 7.60% [1] - The beer segment is showing signs of recovery, with sales and profit margins improving, indicating that it may have entered a growth phase [19] Group 2: Sector Analysis - **White Liquor**: The industry is currently facing a deep adjustment period, with sales pressures due to weak demand in gifting and banquet consumption, but leading companies are expected to strengthen their market positions through brand and operational advantages [1][6] - **Pre-processed Foods**: The sector is experiencing weak performance due to sluggish B-end restaurant demand, but is expected to benefit from a recovery in the C-end market, particularly in pre-prepared dishes [17] - **Dairy Products**: The dairy sector's revenue for 2024 is projected at 292.5 billion yuan, down 7.7% year-on-year, with net profit declining by 38.5% to 12.92 billion yuan [21][22] - **Snack Foods**: The sector is thriving, particularly with the popularity of konjac products, and companies are adapting to new retail formats like discount stores [24] - **Soft Drinks**: The functional beverage market continues to expand, with a notable increase in demand for sugar-free tea and functional drinks [26] - **Yellow Wine**: Leading companies in the yellow wine sector are expanding their advantages and driving the industry's high-end development [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [16]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.868 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 1.71% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 84 million yuan, down 37.67% year-on-year [2][5]. - The company is facing pressure from major clients and distribution channels, but the dish business is experiencing significant growth, with revenue from this category increasing by 273.39% year-on-year [3]. - The company is focusing on opportunities in supermarkets and expanding its product lines in baking and dishes to counteract the decline in traditional frozen products [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 23.66%, which has been under pressure, and the overall expense ratio increased by 1.72 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 4.48%, reflecting a decline of 2.58 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 is set at 108 million yuan and 119 million yuan, respectively, indicating a year-on-year growth of 29% and 11% [5]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from various product categories was as follows: staple foods 913 million yuan, snacks 439 million yuan, baked goods 365 million yuan, and frozen prepared dishes 142 million yuan, with the latter showing a significant increase [3]. - The company’s revenue from direct sales and distribution channels in 2024 was 809 million yuan and 1.051 billion yuan, respectively, with direct sales increasing by 4.34% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue leveraging opportunities in the development of private label products for major supermarket clients and customized products, particularly in the baking and dish categories [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a predicted increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index in the next 12 months [2][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Anjuke Foods is strategically expanding into the frozen baking sector and enhancing its supply chain collaboration through the acquisition of a 70% stake in Dingweitai for 444.5 million RMB. This acquisition aims to fill the high-end seafood gap, supplement the frozen baking segment, deepen B-end channel cooperation, and support international expansion [5][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Anjuke Foods (603345) is positioned as a leading player in the frozen food industry, with a market capitalization of 23.141 billion RMB and a recent closing price of 78.9 RMB [2]. Historical Performance - The company's stock performance has shown fluctuations, with a historical decline of 23% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [3]. Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 155.91 billion RMB, 176.14 billion RMB, and 199.46 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.01%, 12.98%, and 13.24% [7][10]. - Expected net profits for the same years are 14.97 billion RMB, 16.78 billion RMB, and 19.19 billion RMB, with growth rates of 1.29%, 12.07%, and 14.40% [7][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The acquisition of Dingweitai is seen as a pivotal move to enhance Anjuke's product offerings and market reach, particularly in high-end seafood and frozen baked goods, while also leveraging existing B-end customer relationships [5][6].