Core Insights - The "Global Business Civilization Journey" initiative, launched in 2019 by Qin Shuo and Yang Yudong, aims to explore and document various business cases globally, focusing on the resilience of businesses and the transmission of economic information [3][24]. - The fourth season of this initiative is set to commence in Singapore, featuring a curated book list intended to broaden perspectives on business cases and insights [3][24]. Group 1 - The initiative seeks to connect Chinese and global business civilizations through on-site visits and case studies [3][24]. - A special book list has been introduced to enhance the understanding of business concepts and foster new perspectives on business civilization [3][24]. Group 2 - The project emphasizes the importance of learning and sharing knowledge in the business community, encouraging participants to engage in discussions and book recommendations [26][28]. - The initiative includes a promotional activity where participants can win signed copies of the book "Going Global" by Qin Shuo [26][28].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the annual Double Eleven shopping festival, emphasizing the opportunity for consumers to purchase books at discounted prices, particularly in the investment and finance category [1][2]. Discount Benefits - The company has prepared special purchasing benefits for the Double Eleven event, including a discount of 120 yuan for purchases over 300 yuan, with coupons available on the product page [5]. - The promotional period is from November 9, 2025, at 20:00 to November 11, 2025, at 24:00 [5]. Selected Books for Investment and Finance - The company has selected six notable investment and finance books for this promotion, including: 1. **"Active Fund Investment Guide"** - A comprehensive introduction to active funds, covering what they are, how to buy and sell them, and investment strategies [11]. 2. **"Index Fund Investment Guide"** - Suitable for beginners, this book discusses 256 mainstream index funds in China and provides investment strategies for ordinary investors [13][14]. 3. **"Ten Years to Financial Freedom through Regular Investment"** - This book details the concept of regular investment, making it ideal for working professionals with steady cash flow [17]. 4. **"Long-Term Stock Market Secrets"** - A globally bestselling book updated with nearly 30 years of new data, emphasizing that stocks are the best long-term wealth accumulation method [19][20]. 5. **"Trillion Index"** - A narrative on the history of index funds, featuring stories of investment masters and industry elites [25]. 6. **"Patient Capital"** - This book illustrates the journeys of long-term investment pioneers, providing insights into managing family assets [26][27]. Additional Recommendations - The article also mentions various other financial and investment-related books, categorized into different themes such as professional investment, wealth thinking, and workplace improvement, providing a comprehensive reading list for interested individuals [49][75][80].

Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes the importance of understanding debt cycles and their impact on economies, as outlined in his new book "How Countries Fail: The Big Cycle" [3][4] - The book presents a framework for understanding the cyclical nature of national rise and fall, warning investors to look beyond market trends [3][4] Group 1: Key Questions Addressed - The article raises critical questions about the limits of national debt growth, the implications of rising interest rates, and the potential for a major reserve currency nation like the U.S. to face bankruptcy [5][6] - It highlights the lack of clear answers to these questions, which are crucial for investors and policymakers alike [6] Group 2: Research Perspective - The research is conducted from a global macro investor's perspective, drawing on over 50 years of experience with various debt cycles [8][9] - Dalio's analysis includes a review of significant debt cycles over the past century and a broader examination of 500 years of history to identify patterns and mechanisms [9] Group 3: Long-Term Debt Cycle - Dalio identifies a long-term debt cycle that spans approximately 80 years, which is often overlooked due to its duration and the human tendency to focus on immediate events [10][11] - He argues that understanding these cycles is essential for recognizing potential debt crises and their implications for economies [11] Group 4: The Big Cycle Framework - The "Big Cycle" encompasses various interrelated cycles, including debt cycles, domestic political harmony and conflict, international geopolitical dynamics, natural forces, and technological breakthroughs [12] - The transition from one order to another during crises is a key theme, with the potential for significant upheaval in monetary, domestic governance, and international systems [12][13] Group 5: Future Implications - The article suggests that the next 5-10 years will be a period of significant change, with many current rising entities potentially declining and vice versa [16][17] - It emphasizes the importance of managing various forces effectively to navigate the challenges posed by debt, conflict, and technological change [17][18]

Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes the importance of understanding debt cycles and their impact on national economies, particularly in his new book "How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle" [3][4] - The book outlines a quantifiable and monitorable "big debt cycle" that leads to systemic crises, akin to an "economic heart attack" [3][4] - Dalio's research spans 500 years of history, providing a theoretical framework to explain the cyclical nature of national rise and fall, urging investors to look beyond market trends [3][4] Group 1: Key Questions Addressed - The article raises critical questions about the limits of national debt growth, the implications of rising interest rates, and the potential for a major reserve currency nation like the U.S. to face bankruptcy [5][6] - It highlights the lack of clear answers to these questions, noting that some believe there are no limits to government debt, while others warn of impending crises without understanding their timing or impact [6][7] Group 2: Macro Investor Perspective - Dalio approaches the study of debt from a global macro investor's perspective, having experienced multiple debt cycles firsthand over the past 50 years [8][9] - His research includes an analysis of significant debt cycles over the last century and a broader examination of 500 years of historical cases, aiming to understand the causal relationships driving these cycles [9][10] Group 3: The Big Cycle Concept - The "big cycle" spans approximately 80 years, making it difficult for individuals to recognize its patterns through personal experience [10][11] - Dalio argues that societal focus on immediate events often obscures the larger macroeconomic picture, leading to systemic biases in recognizing debt risks [11][12] Group 4: Historical Context and Future Implications - The article discusses the historical recurrence of debt cycles and their implications for current economic conditions, warning against complacency in the face of rising government debt [11][12] - Dalio emphasizes the interconnectedness of debt cycles with domestic political stability, international relations, and natural forces, suggesting that these elements collectively influence the transition from old to new orders [12][13] Group 5: Insights on Future Trends - The article posits that the next 5-10 years will witness significant changes in global order, with potential shifts in power dynamics among nations, companies, and individuals [16][17] - Dalio suggests that while technological advancements may have a substantial positive impact, they may not be sufficient to counterbalance negative forces such as debt and geopolitical tensions [16][17] Group 6: Importance of Human Capital - The article highlights the significance of human capital in navigating future challenges, advocating for education and skill development as essential for countries to thrive [17][18] - It warns that extreme partisanship and internal conflicts could lead to detrimental outcomes, urging a collective approach to address shared challenges [18][19]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of developing good habits during holidays, particularly focusing on exercise as a means of long-term health benefits, similar to investment strategies like dollar-cost averaging [6][14][15] - It suggests starting with low-barrier exercises at home, such as using the Nintendo Switch with the Ring Fit Adventure game, which can be a family-friendly option [9] - For those looking for cost-effective home workouts, it recommends various workout videos, with difficulty levels ranging from beginner to advanced, and highlights the importance of consistency in achieving fitness goals [10][11][12] Group 2 - The article discusses the value of watching films and series during holidays for relaxation, mentioning specific shows and their relevance to investment principles, such as caution and strategic thinking [20][25] - It provides a list of recommended shows, including domestic and international series, and emphasizes the importance of selecting content that can provide both entertainment and insights into business dynamics [19][26] - The article also suggests efficient viewing methods, such as watching at increased speeds or utilizing edited clips to save time while still gaining valuable insights [36][38][41] Group 3 - The article highlights the significance of reading as a means of knowledge acquisition, recommending a systematic approach to evaluating books based on their quality and relevance [44][46] - It lists several highly-rated books related to investment and personal development, emphasizing their potential to enhance understanding of financial markets and personal finance strategies [50][53][56] - The author encourages sharing recommendations for books and films that can be beneficial during the holiday period, fostering a community of knowledge sharing [61]

Group 1 - The article discusses the relationship between long bear markets and debt levels, indicating that historical long bear markets are often linked to asset debt [2][3][49] - It highlights that during periods of high asset valuations, significant leverage is often taken on, leading to substantial debt accumulation [50][51] - The article provides examples of historical events, such as the Japanese asset bubble in the late 1980s and the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, illustrating how excessive leverage can lead to severe market downturns [20][21][29] Group 2 - The article explains the concept of household debt ratios, suggesting that a healthy debt ratio should be maintained between 30% to 50% of total assets [12][14] - It emphasizes the importance of managing monthly mortgage payments relative to income, recommending that these payments should not exceed 50% of monthly income [13][15] - The discussion includes the impact of rising debt levels on household financial stability, likening it to a "long bear market" for families [17][19] Group 3 - The article outlines strategies for deleveraging, primarily focusing on lowering interest rates and refinancing old debt with new, lower-cost debt [35][39] - It notes that reducing interest rates can stimulate economic activity but may also lead to inflation, as increased money supply often results in rising prices [44][54] - The article concludes that understanding asset valuations and avoiding participation in bubble assets are crucial for investors to navigate through economic crises [56][58]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which predicts a crisis of confidence in the dollar due to excessive credit expansion, is highlighted as a recurring theme in the history of monetary systems [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Theoretical Framework - The article references historical instances, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the UK's experience with the pound, to illustrate the inherent instability in unipolar monetary systems [4]. - The discussion emphasizes that the "Triffin Dilemma" is not limited to the Bretton Woods system but is a common issue across all unipolar international monetary systems [4]. Group 3: Role of Stablecoins and Future Considerations - There are ongoing debates regarding the role of stablecoins in the monetary system, including their potential to complement or replace the dollar [5]. - The article suggests that understanding the essence and functions of money is crucial for evaluating the impact of stablecoins on the current monetary landscape [5]. - It calls for a grounded discussion based on facts, history, and theory to avoid falling into the trap of grand narratives in the study of international monetary systems [5][6].