丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨齐翔腾达（002408.SZ） [Table_Title] 反内卷政策加速行业出清，景气度有望企稳向好 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司公布 2025 年半年度报告，2025 年上半年实现营业收入 122.08 亿元，同比下降 4.09%； 归母净利润 0.23 亿元，同比下降 83.34%；扣非归母净利润 0.22 亿元，同比下降 82.14%。其 中 2025 年第二季度实现营业收入 65.90 亿元，同比下降 9.10%，环比增长 17.29%；归母净利 润 0.18 亿元，同比下降 83.38%，环比增长 228.72%；扣非归母净利润 0.17 亿元，同比下降 82.65%，环比增长 200.97%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 魏凯 侯彦飞 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490521050002 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BVN517 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 齐翔腾达（002408.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Tit ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The company is in a favorable position in 2025 Q1, with a 38.19% increase in net profit due to low - oscillating crude oil prices supporting costs and the recovery of downstream chemical product demand [31]. - The company aims to build and promote an AI development strategy on the basis of the "1 + N" strategy, striving to become a world - class energy and chemical enterprise in the AI era [27]. - The company expects future crude oil prices to continue to fluctuate at current levels, which is beneficial for raw material cost support and potentially improving profitability [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Research Basic Situation - The research object is Orient Shenghong, belonging to the chemical fiber industry. The reception time was May 20, 2025, and the company's reception staff included the deputy chairman, independent directors, and other executives [16]. 3.2. Detailed Research Institutions - The research institutions included investors who participated in the company's 2024 annual online performance briefing online [19]. 3.3. Research Institution Proportion No information provided. 3.4. Main Content Materials - **Company Achievements in 2024** - The company expanded its industrial layout. The devices for products such as PETG, nitrile latex, and EC/DMC were successfully started up at one time. The POSM and polyol devices of the chemical new material project were fully put into production. The photovoltaic - grade EVA increased by 200,000 tons in production capacity, reaching 500,000 tons/year [24]. - The company had significant innovation achievements, including building the world's first "from carbon dioxide to polyester fiber" industrial chain, winning multiple awards, and having some subsidiaries recognized as champions in the manufacturing industry [25][26]. - The company practiced green and low - carbon development, signing a clean power supply cooperation agreement and launching green product brands [27]. - **Q&A Session** - **EVA and POE Products**: As of the end of 2024, the company's EVA production capacity was 500,000 tons/year, ranking high in the industry in terms of scale and market share. The 100,000 - ton/year POE industrial device is under construction as planned. The company will use its strategic cooperation with downstream photovoltaic film leading enterprises to strengthen market promotion and customer expansion [28]. - **"1 + N" Strategy**: The company has formed a vertically integrated industrial chain layout. The "1 + N" pattern will enable the full linkage of refining, new energy and new materials, and polyester chemical fiber businesses in the future [30][31]. - **Profit and Market Outlook**: The company expects future crude oil prices to fluctuate, which is beneficial for cost support. It will optimize product structure, adjust pricing, and manage inventory according to market conditions [31][32]. - **Recycled Polyester Fiber**: The company's recycled polyester fiber production capacity is about 600,000 tons/year, and its downstream customers cover more than 30 well - known brands [32]. - **Tariff Impact**: In 2024, the company's overseas revenue was 6.753 billion yuan, accounting for about 5% of total revenue. The import and export volume to the US was almost zero, so future US tariff increases would have no direct impact [33]. - **Crude Oil Procurement**: The company's crude oil mainly comes from the Middle East. It formulates procurement plans based on price fluctuations and production plans and conducts appropriate crude oil futures hedging [33]. - **Capital Expenditure**: In 2024, capital expenditure was mainly for the construction of projects such as EVA, POE, POSM, and polyether polyol. The peak of capital expenditure has passed, and it is expected to decline gradually in the future [33]. - **R & D Investment**: In 2024, the company's R & D investment was 6.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. It has multiple innovation platforms and has achieved many technological innovation results [33][34][35].

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategy - Jiangsu Dongfang Shenghong Co., Ltd. operates in the petrochemical industry, focusing on sustainable development and innovation [2][3] - The company emphasizes a value philosophy of "safety, integrity, innovation, and transcendence" to achieve stable and sustainable growth [2] - In 2024, the company expanded its production capacity, including a new 200,000 tons/year of photovoltaic-grade EVA, bringing total capacity to 500,000 tons/year [3] Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The company established the world's first industrial chain from CO2 to polyester fiber, winning the "International Textile Federation Sustainable and Innovation Award" [3][4] - R&D investment reached 6.35 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, with 3,797 R&D personnel [14] - The PDH smart factory project was recognized as the "Most Influential Engineering Project in China's Automation Field in 2023" [15] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's net profit increased by 38.19%, supported by low crude oil prices and recovering demand for downstream chemical products [7] - The company's overseas revenue in 2024 was 6.753 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 5% of total revenue [11] Group 4: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company holds a leading position in the EVA market with a production capacity of 500,000 tons/year, benefiting from economies of scale [6] - The company has developed a comprehensive product line, including recycled polyester fiber with a capacity of 600,000 tons/year, serving over 30 well-known brands [9] Group 5: Future Outlook and Challenges - The company plans to implement an AI development strategy to enhance vertical integration across its supply chain and focus on new energy and materials [4] - Challenges include navigating a complex external environment and ensuring collaboration among various business segments to maximize the "1+N" strategy [7][8]

Group 1: Project Progress and Financial Status - The isononyl alcohol project is currently progressing, with the raw material pretreatment unit completed and some civil construction and equipment foundation finished [2] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of CNY 1.352 billion for 2024, with accounts receivable turnover at 18 times and inventory turnover at 16 times [3] - The company's debt ratio stands at 53%, indicating sufficient funds and smooth financing [3] Group 2: Production and R&D Developments - The company is planning to extend its downstream industrial chain for propylene oxide, with the current technical transformation nearing completion [3] - The company has 16 key projects aimed at resolving operational bottlenecks, improving efficiency and product quality, and reducing production costs [3] - The company’s R&D expenses have increased in line with rising revenue, from CNY 8.638 billion in 2020 to CNY 16.705 billion in 2024 [4] Group 3: Production Capacity and Utilization - Currently, all production units are operating at full capacity except for the propylene oxide, nitrile latex, and MMA units [4] - The propylene oxide unit was completed and put into operation in June 2023, but its overall performance has not met expectations due to market factors [4] Group 4: Strategic Planning and Future Outlook - The company is implementing a strategic plan to solidify its position as a regional leader in the basic chemical industry, focusing on a "one base, two wings" industrial system [3] - The second base's planning is progressing steadily, with updates to be provided through official announcements [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a first-quarter revenue of 5.618 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.53% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18.18%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.05 billion yuan, down 83.18% year-on-year but turning profitable quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.06 billion yuan, down 80.38% year-on-year but also turning profitable quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leader in the C4 industrial chain, focusing on deep processing of raw material carbon four, with four product lines including butene, isobutylene, butane, and isobutane. It has a strong market position with a 70% share in the domestic market for its main product, methyl ethyl ketone [12]. Industry Analysis - The butadiene chain is maintaining a good level of prosperity, with the industry capacity utilization rate around 70% due to supply constraints. The company uses the largest butene oxidation method in the country to produce butadiene, which aligns with its existing industrial chain [12]. Financial Performance - The company expects significant improvement in operating conditions due to a decrease in raw material prices starting from the second quarter of 2025. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.32 billion yuan, 0.76 billion yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 39.4, 16.6, and 10.4 [12][19].