证券研究报告 可选消费 部分海外龙头中国业务持续回暖 华泰研究 2025 年 11 月 11 日│中国内地 动态点评 25Q3 多家海外美护/奢侈品龙头中国区业务出现不同程度的回暖趋势： LVMH 除日本以外的亚太区营收经历 6 季度下滑后，25Q3 重回正增长；欧 莱雅中国大陆连续 2 季度恢复正增长，25Q3 提速至 3%；爱马仕中国区业 务增长强劲；雅诗兰黛亦实现中国区业务同比增长 9%；联合利华中国区除 冰激凌外各业务板块恢复增长；在旅游零售渠道，欧莱雅/LVMH/开云集团 等公司亦观察到了改善迹象。据爱马仕，当前已观察到中国一线城市房地产 市场企稳、中国大陆与中国香港金融市场回升的积极宏观信号；欧莱雅亦称 高端线引领中国市场复苏。我们认为中国大陆区消费有望持续渐进式回暖。 区域视角：部分龙头中国营收持续回暖，部分龙头日本本地消费维稳 1）中国：欧莱雅中国大陆 25Q3 收入同比增长约 3%，驱动北亚 yoy4.7% （like-for-like 口径，下同），LVMH 中国大陆 Q3 本地市场营收已重回正增 长，国内消费恢复至中高个位增长，爱马仕 Q3 大中华区营收增长强劲，拜 尔斯道夫旗下莱珀妮 ...

Core Viewpoint - European companies have performed better than expected in response to U.S. tariffs, indicating a positive outlook for profit growth in the coming year, with market expectations of double-digit profit increases [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of European Companies - A basket of European stocks most affected by tariffs, compiled by Goldman Sachs, outperformed the market in October, rising approximately 6%, which is double the increase of the European Stoxx 600 index and three times that of domestic stocks [1]. - Companies like Hermès, Unilever, and Galderma have reported significant sales growth in the Americas, with Hermès seeing a 14.1% increase in sales in the region [3][6]. - The frequency of mentions of tariffs in European earnings calls has been declining, indicating a growing optimism among EU companies regarding their outlook [10]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments and Cost Management - Companies are adapting to tariffs by cutting costs to avoid raising prices, which could push consumers towards cheaper brands, as seen with Unilever's strategy [6]. - Pharmaceutical companies in Europe are negotiating with the U.S. government to lower drug prices and are committing billions in investments to mitigate the impact of upcoming sector tariffs [6][11]. - Some companies, like Stellantis, reported a 13% increase in net income due to recovery in North American business, while also committing to significant investments in the U.S. [11]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the gap between profit growth in the U.S. and Europe is expected to narrow, with a general market expectation of a 12% increase in earnings per share for Stoxx 600 constituents next year [3][6]. - There is a growing belief that tariffs are manageable and will not cause significant damage, although some caution remains regarding the long-term effects and currency impacts on earnings [12].

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent financial reports from international beauty leaders like L'Oréal and Procter & Gamble indicate a sequential improvement in growth rates for overseas brands in the Chinese market, particularly in functional skincare and medical aesthetics [1] - The beauty sector is experiencing significant changes, with a notable rise in domestic brands, highlighting a clear growth trend and increasing brand differentiation [1] Group 2: L'Oréal Performance - L'Oréal reported a sales figure of €22.47 billion for 1H25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, with Q1 and Q2 growth rates of 2.6% and 3.7% respectively [2] - The net profit for L'Oréal reached €3.783 billion, showing a 1.0% year-on-year increase [2] - The professional hair division led growth with a 6.5% increase, while mass skincare, premium cosmetics, and skin science segments grew by 2.8%, 2.0%, and 3.1% respectively [2] - The Chinese market showed a 3% year-on-year growth in Q2, with skin science and professional hair products performing particularly well [2] Group 3: Procter & Gamble Performance - Procter & Gamble's Q2 sales amounted to $20.889 billion, a 2% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 15% to $3.626 billion [3] - The beauty segment saw a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, while net profit in this division grew by 4% [3] - The skincare business in China continued to grow, although this was offset by a decline in North America, resulting in flat overall sales for the skincare segment [3] Group 4: Galderma Performance - Galderma reported a net sales figure of $2.448 billion for 1H25, marking a 12.2% year-on-year increase, with Q2 growth at 15.8% [4] - The company raised its full-year sales guidance to 12-14%, up from the previous 10-12% [4] - The injection aesthetics, daily skincare, and skin treatment segments grew by 9.8%, 7.7%, and 26.9% respectively, with botulinum toxin sales increasing by 14.7% [4] - Strong performance was noted in key markets such as Brazil, Canada, and mainland China, particularly in the injection aesthetics business [4]

Group 1: Consumption Policy and Market Trends - The government is expected to implement policies to promote childbirth, with significant subsidies announced in Hohhot, which may catalyze demand in the maternal and infant sector, benefiting companies like Aiyingshi and Haiziwang [6][8] - The retail sector is seeing a shift towards quality supermarkets, driven by consumer demand for better product quality, with companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Chongqing Department Store expected to expand [7][8] - The "AI + Consumption" initiative is being emphasized, with potential growth in sectors like AI-integrated eyewear and e-commerce, highlighting companies such as Mingyue Optical and Ruoyuchen [2] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Aimeike plans to acquire REGEN Biotech, which could enhance its market position and valuation, as the acquisition is expected to provide significant growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets [3] - The 3.8 promotion event on platforms like Tmall and Douyin showed strong performance, with brands like Juzi and Marubi exceeding expectations, indicating a robust recovery in the beauty sector [4][5] - Gaode Beauty reported a 9.3% increase in net sales for 2024, with significant growth in its aesthetic injection segment, particularly in China, where new products are expected to drive further growth [6]