来源：小食代 原标题：前雀巢CEO兼董事长包必达：董事会一次都没征询过我意见，食品工业世纪范式早已到头，创 始人在位时接班问题总是棘手的 "许多高管真以为自己有权势，直到退休才发现，随着职位而去的还有权力。"前雀巢集团首席执行官兼 董事长包必达（Peter Brabeck-Letmathe）说。 罪魁祸首 问：包必达先生，您想从哪开始我们的对话？ 答：世界是更紧迫的话题。今天我们所经历的，是旧有基于规则的国际秩序的崩溃。过去三四十年间， 我们拥有一个明确规则的国际体系。这套体系创造了巨大繁荣：数十亿人摆脱极端贫困，迈入新兴中产 阶层。这是多边主义与全球化的成果。但如今，这一秩序正在瓦解。 问：瑞士正面临哪些优势丧失的风险？ 答：瑞士的成功传统上建立在三大支柱之上：中立、自由主义与稳定。这个国家从不具威胁性，而是充 当桥梁建设者。经济上，它曾是全球最自由开放的经济体之一，对跨国企业极具吸引力。遗憾的是，近 年来我们失去了许多这样的优势。 问：能否举个具体例子？ 日前，包必达接受了瑞士媒体《新苏黎世报》（Neue Zürcher Zeitung）的专访。据该报说，这位81岁的 老人在几周前曾出人意料地放弃雀巢"名 ...

蓝灰坑 2025 年 12 月 14 日 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 11 月化妆品淘系略承压，胶原医美赛道再添两员 -化妆品医美行业周报 20251214 本期投资提示: 破壞 行业 相关研究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本周化妆品医美板块表现弱于市场。2025 年 12 月 5 日至 2025 年 12 月 12 日期间, ● 申万美容护理指数下滑 1.6%，表现弱于市场。其中，申万化妆品指数下滑 1.2%，弱于 申万 A 指 1.4pct; 申万个护用品指数下滑 1.7%, 弱于申万 A 指数 1.9pct。 周观点：11 月化妆品淘系略承压,胶原医美赛道再添两员。据魔镜数据,11 月化妆品 ○ 淘系 GMV 整体偏弱，一方面受双 11 ...

行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2025 年 12 月 14 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 11 月化妆品淘系略承压，胶原医美赛道再添两员 看好 ——化妆品医美行业周报 20251214 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 - ⚫ 本周化妆品医美板块表现弱于市场。2025 年 12 月 5 日至 2025 年 12 月 12 日期间， 申万美容护理指数下滑 1.6%，表现弱于市场。其中，申万化妆品指数下滑 1.2%，弱于 申万 A 指 1.4pct；申万个护用品指数下滑 ...

Core Views - The article discusses the contrasting strategies of two major beauty groups, L'Oréal and Unilever, highlighting L'Oréal's aggressive acquisition approach and Unilever's focus on divesting non-core assets [2][8]. Group 1: L'Oréal's Acquisition Strategy - L'Oréal announced the acquisition of an additional 10% stake in Galderma, increasing its ownership from 10% to 20%, with plans to explore further scientific research collaborations [1][6]. - The acquisition is part of L'Oréal's ambition to penetrate the rapidly growing medical aesthetics market, alongside its investments in high-end and clean beauty segments [6][8]. - In October, L'Oréal made a significant investment of €4 billion to acquire beauty licenses from Kering Group, indicating a strong recovery in its performance, particularly in the North Asia region [6][7]. Group 2: Unilever's Divestment Strategy - Unilever is undergoing a restructuring process, focusing on core businesses by divesting over 20 non-core beauty and personal care brands, including the planned spin-off of its ice cream business [1][7]. - The CEO of Unilever emphasized that the spin-off aims to create a more streamlined company focused on higher profit margins in beauty and personal care sectors [7][8]. - Unilever's recent quarterly results showed improvement in sales growth after excluding the ice cream business, indicating a positive trend in its core operations [7][8]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Brand Matrix - The contrasting strategies of L'Oréal and Unilever reflect a broader industry trend where companies are either expanding their brand portfolios or optimizing them by shedding non-core assets [8][9]. - The ideal brand matrix should exhibit strategic synergy, growth gradient, and profit orientation, allowing companies to withstand market fluctuations [10]. - Other beauty brands, including Estée Lauder, are also reviewing their brand portfolios, indicating a shift towards optimizing brand performance and profitability [9].

Core Insights - The two major beauty groups, L'Oréal and Unilever, are pursuing different strategies, with L'Oréal focusing on acquisitions while Unilever is divesting non-core assets [2][4]. Group 1: L'Oréal's Acquisition Strategy - L'Oréal announced the acquisition of an additional 10% stake in Galderma, increasing its ownership from 10% to 20%, with plans to explore further scientific research projects together [1][2]. - The acquisition is part of L'Oréal's ambition to enter the rapidly growing medical aesthetics market, alongside its investments in high-end and clean beauty segments [2][3]. - In October, L'Oréal spent €4 billion to acquire beauty licenses from Kering Group, indicating a strong partnership and capability to enhance luxury brands [3]. - L'Oréal's investments in China include a stake in Naturgy and further investments in local skincare brands, reflecting its strategy to accelerate brand innovation and consumer attraction [3]. Group 2: Unilever's Divestment Strategy - Unilever is undergoing a restructuring process to focus on core businesses, highlighted by the planned spin-off of its ice cream division, expected to be completed by Q4 2025 [1][5]. - The CEO of Unilever emphasized that the spin-off will create a more streamlined company, concentrating on beauty, health, and personal care sectors for higher profit margins [5]. - Unilever's recent quarterly performance showed improvement after excluding the ice cream business, indicating a positive trend in its core operations [5]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Brand Matrix - The contrasting strategies of L'Oréal and Unilever reflect a broader industry trend where companies are either expanding their brand portfolios or optimizing them by shedding non-core assets [6][7]. - The ideal brand matrix should exhibit strategic synergy, growth gradient, and profit orientation, allowing companies to withstand market fluctuations [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer discretionary and commercial trade sectors [7]. Core Insights - Several leading overseas beauty and luxury brands are experiencing a recovery in their business in China, with notable growth in Q3 2025 [1][2]. - The overall consumption in mainland China is expected to continue its gradual recovery, supported by positive macroeconomic signals [1]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - LVMH's revenue in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, returned to positive growth after six consecutive quarters of decline, with Q3 2025 showing a recovery [1]. - L'Oréal's revenue in mainland China grew by approximately 3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by a 4.7% increase in North Asia [2]. - Hermès reported strong growth in the Greater China region, while Estée Lauder achieved a 9% year-on-year increase in its China business [1][2]. - Unilever's business segments in China, excluding ice cream, also showed signs of recovery [1]. Channel Insights - Online channels have seen significant growth, with L'Oréal and Beiersdorf reporting year-on-year increases of 12% and 19.2% respectively in Q3 [3]. - Travel retail remains under pressure but has shown marginal improvements, with L'Oréal and Kering noting slight revenue recovery [3]. Category Insights - The medical aesthetics segment, particularly high-demand products like Sculptra, has seen a year-on-year revenue increase of 11.8% in Q3 2025 [4]. - Skin science skincare products, including brands like Cetaphil and Alastin, reported double-digit growth, contributing to a 9.3% year-on-year increase in the skincare segment [4]. - Fragrance categories also performed well, benefiting from new product launches by L'Oréal and LVMH [4]. Performance Guidance - Galderma has raised its full-year revenue growth guidance for FY25 to 17.0%-17.7%, up from a previous estimate of 10%-12% [5]. - Procter & Gamble expects a revenue growth rate of 1%-5% for FY26, maintaining its guidance for Q4 2025 [5]. - Unilever anticipates a potential sales growth rate of 3%-5% for FY25, with Q2 revenue growth expected to exceed that of H1 2025 [5].

Core Viewpoint - European companies have performed better than expected in response to U.S. tariffs, indicating a positive outlook for profit growth in the coming year, with market expectations of double-digit profit increases [1][3]. Group 1: Performance of European Companies - A basket of European stocks most affected by tariffs, compiled by Goldman Sachs, outperformed the market in October, rising approximately 6%, which is double the increase of the European Stoxx 600 index and three times that of domestic stocks [1]. - Companies like Hermès, Unilever, and Galderma have reported significant sales growth in the Americas, with Hermès seeing a 14.1% increase in sales in the region [3][6]. - The frequency of mentions of tariffs in European earnings calls has been declining, indicating a growing optimism among EU companies regarding their outlook [10]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments and Cost Management - Companies are adapting to tariffs by cutting costs to avoid raising prices, which could push consumers towards cheaper brands, as seen with Unilever's strategy [6]. - Pharmaceutical companies in Europe are negotiating with the U.S. government to lower drug prices and are committing billions in investments to mitigate the impact of upcoming sector tariffs [6][11]. - Some companies, like Stellantis, reported a 13% increase in net income due to recovery in North American business, while also committing to significant investments in the U.S. [11]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the gap between profit growth in the U.S. and Europe is expected to narrow, with a general market expectation of a 12% increase in earnings per share for Stoxx 600 constituents next year [3][6]. - There is a growing belief that tariffs are manageable and will not cause significant damage, although some caution remains regarding the long-term effects and currency impacts on earnings [12].

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent financial reports from international beauty leaders like L'Oréal and Procter & Gamble indicate a sequential improvement in growth rates for overseas brands in the Chinese market, particularly in functional skincare and medical aesthetics [1] - The beauty sector is experiencing significant changes, with a notable rise in domestic brands, highlighting a clear growth trend and increasing brand differentiation [1] Group 2: L'Oréal Performance - L'Oréal reported a sales figure of €22.47 billion for 1H25, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, with Q1 and Q2 growth rates of 2.6% and 3.7% respectively [2] - The net profit for L'Oréal reached €3.783 billion, showing a 1.0% year-on-year increase [2] - The professional hair division led growth with a 6.5% increase, while mass skincare, premium cosmetics, and skin science segments grew by 2.8%, 2.0%, and 3.1% respectively [2] - The Chinese market showed a 3% year-on-year growth in Q2, with skin science and professional hair products performing particularly well [2] Group 3: Procter & Gamble Performance - Procter & Gamble's Q2 sales amounted to $20.889 billion, a 2% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 15% to $3.626 billion [3] - The beauty segment saw a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, while net profit in this division grew by 4% [3] - The skincare business in China continued to grow, although this was offset by a decline in North America, resulting in flat overall sales for the skincare segment [3] Group 4: Galderma Performance - Galderma reported a net sales figure of $2.448 billion for 1H25, marking a 12.2% year-on-year increase, with Q2 growth at 15.8% [4] - The company raised its full-year sales guidance to 12-14%, up from the previous 10-12% [4] - The injection aesthetics, daily skincare, and skin treatment segments grew by 9.8%, 7.7%, and 26.9% respectively, with botulinum toxin sales increasing by 14.7% [4] - Strong performance was noted in key markets such as Brazil, Canada, and mainland China, particularly in the injection aesthetics business [4]

Group 1: Consumption Policy and Market Trends - The government is expected to implement policies to promote childbirth, with significant subsidies announced in Hohhot, which may catalyze demand in the maternal and infant sector, benefiting companies like Aiyingshi and Haiziwang [6][8] - The retail sector is seeing a shift towards quality supermarkets, driven by consumer demand for better product quality, with companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Chongqing Department Store expected to expand [7][8] - The "AI + Consumption" initiative is being emphasized, with potential growth in sectors like AI-integrated eyewear and e-commerce, highlighting companies such as Mingyue Optical and Ruoyuchen [2] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Aimeike plans to acquire REGEN Biotech, which could enhance its market position and valuation, as the acquisition is expected to provide significant growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets [3] - The 3.8 promotion event on platforms like Tmall and Douyin showed strong performance, with brands like Juzi and Marubi exceeding expectations, indicating a robust recovery in the beauty sector [4][5] - Gaode Beauty reported a 9.3% increase in net sales for 2024, with significant growth in its aesthetic injection segment, particularly in China, where new products are expected to drive further growth [6]