Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Short-term negative factors are repaired, but medium-term structural optimization is not yet complete. The new regulations on fund fees have a positive impact on the bond market in the short term, and the sentiment in the bond market is expected to recover. Medium and long-term credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds are expected to benefit, while the benefits for short-term bond funds are limited, and bond ETFs may expand in scale but shorten in duration. [1][3][9] Summary by Directory 1. Redemption Fee Regulations Change: Partial Exemption for Bond and Index Funds, Transition Period Extended to 12 Months - On December 31, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission revised and issued the "Regulations on the Administration of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds," which came into effect on January 1, 2026. Compared with the draft for comments, the official version gives partial exemption for the redemption fees of bond funds and index funds. For individual investors who hold index funds and bond funds for 7 days or more, and institutional investors who hold bond funds for 30 days or more, fund managers can negotiate the redemption fee standards separately. The transition period for adjusting non-compliant existing funds is set to 12 months, which is more lenient and eases potential market disruptions. [7] 2. Impact of the New Redemption Regulations on the Bond Market: Short-term Negative Factors Repaired, Medium-term Structural Optimization Incomplete 2.1 Short-term Benefits: Uncertainty of the Impact of the New Regulations on the Bond Market Resolved, Market Sentiment Expected to Recover - The new regulations were implemented in a more moderate way, significantly reducing the short-term passive redemption pressure on bond funds and providing support for the bond market at the liability end. If the central bank accelerates treasury bond trading and insurance funds enter the market for allocation in the future, ultra-long bonds will be supported to some extent, and certificate of deposit rates are expected to decline slowly. [9] 2.2 Medium and Long-term Credit Bonds/Tier 2 Capital Bonds Benefit: More Obvious Repair of Liability End Stability - The enhanced stability of the liability end of bond funds is beneficial to medium and high-grade medium and long-term, highly liquid credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds. After the new regulations, the benefits to the liability end are more obvious compared to interest rate bonds and short-term credit bonds, and the spreads caused by previous fluctuations are expected to recover. [10] 2.3 Limited Benefits for Short-term Bond Funds, Bond ETFs May Expand in Scale but Shorten in Duration - The exemption threshold for institutional investors of short-term bond funds has been raised from 7 days to 30 days, weakening their liquidity advantage. Funds may flow to money market funds or bond ETFs. However, the current characteristics of the ETF market, such as "expanding scale, shortening duration, and concentrating on the short end," may continue, and long-duration credit bond/Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs may face more instability. [11] 3. Weekly Data Overview of Bond Funds - The ETF market shows the characteristics of "shortening duration and concentrating on the short end." The PCF duration of various ETFs generally shortens slowly. At the same time, the scale of medium and short-term varieties has expanded, and funds have gradually flowed into short-term treasury bond and credit bond varieties. The overall trading volume in the market has decreased in the past week, and trading activity has converged. [12]

研报强调传统的拉长久期获取资本利得策略难度大幅上升，不同类型机构需要调整操作思路——交易性 资金应转向中短久期套息加杠杆策略，配置型资金需要耐心等待保险资金入场带来的买点，而年初以来 的套牢盘则应把握反弹机会逐步减仓。 定价权转移的宏观逻辑 申万宏源指出债券市场的定价权正在经历2022年以来的首次重大逆转。 在2022年之前，30年国债并非主流品种，长债与超长债的定价权牢牢掌握在配置盘手中。 但2022年后，随着新旧动能切换、信用收缩加剧和物价低迷预期深化，拉久期成为市场主流策略。大量 中长债基金发行，叠加交易性机构深度参与，债市定价权逐渐被交易盘主导。 进入2025年，市场环境再次发生根本性变化。 央行降准降息幅度保持克制，反内卷提振物价、存款搬家资产配置再平衡、资产荒压力缓解等新的宏观 叙事正在形成。 申万宏源认为中国债券市场的定价权正在发生深刻转移。 12月15日，申万宏源黄伟平团队发表研报，指出尽管10月以来国内经济数据边际回落、央行重启买债等 利好因素出现，债券利率下行幅度却相当有限，市场呈现利多出尽态势。 申万宏源认为这背后反映的是长债和超长债的定价权正从交易盘向配置盘转移。 央行流动性投放能够保 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing adjustments, with ultra-long bonds leading the decline, but historical data suggests limited downside potential for such assets. Analysts indicate that the value proposition of ultra-long bonds may have emerged, making them a preferred asset for future allocations, contingent on monetary policy changes [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the week of December 1 to 7, the bond market showed a downward trend, particularly in long-term bonds, with ultra-long bonds significantly dragging down the market. The average performance of medium to long-term pure bond funds recorded negative returns [2][3]. - The yield on 30-year special treasury bonds rose nearly 10 basis points in one week, with active bonds approaching historical highs. The yield on 10-year treasury bonds also surpassed 1.85%, indicating a bearish sentiment towards long-term assets [2][3]. - The average performance of medium to long-term bond funds was -0.11%, while short-term bond funds recorded an average of -0.02%, highlighting a notable retreat in medium to long-term bond fund performance [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current adjustment in the bond market is primarily driven by trading structure rather than fundamental or macroeconomic changes. The ultra-long bonds are caught in a negative feedback loop of "selling leads to further selling" due to market sentiment [3][6]. - Large banks and rural commercial banks emerged as key buyers of interest rate bonds, with net purchases of 1,316 billion and 761 billion respectively, indicating a counter-cyclical investment strategy [6][7]. - In contrast, trading entities such as funds and brokerages collectively sold off interest rate bonds, with net sales of 681 billion and 739 billion respectively, driven by concerns over public fund fee reforms and net asset value declines [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Analysts recommend a strategy of "buying on dips" and adopting a barbell allocation approach, particularly as the yield on 30-year treasury bonds approaches 2.3% or when the yield spread exceeds 40 basis points [3][8]. - The market is expected to stabilize, with a shift from defensive to proactive investment strategies, although short-term volatility risks remain [7][8]. - Long-term, the logic of economic transformation and declining interest rate levels remains intact, with a focus on coupon income and moderate trading operations to mitigate volatility impacts [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report analyzes the holder structure of bond funds and estimates the potential scale of customized bond funds [2][8] Group 2: Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - Bond funds are dominated by institutional investors, and institutions generally hold a dominant position in various sub - categories, except for short - term bond funds where institutional and individual forces are relatively balanced. The specific definition and recognition criteria of customized funds need further regulatory clarification [15] Group 4: Overall Holder Structure - As of the end of June 2025, the institutional holding ratio of bond funds reached 82.8%. Assuming the ratio remained unchanged, as of the end of September, institutional investors held bond funds worth 8.9 trillion yuan, and individual investors held 1.9 trillion yuan [4][8] - Regarding the types of holding institutions, the estimated scale of bond funds held by bank self - operation is between 4.6 - 6.5 trillion yuan, by wealth management is between 1.0 - 1.3 trillion yuan, and by insurance funds is between 0.7 - 1.7 trillion yuan. However, the estimation method has limitations [9][10][11] - In terms of different sub - fund varieties, as of the end of June 2025, the institutional holding ratios of medium - long - term bond funds and passive index bond funds were 92% and 86% respectively; the institutional holding ratios of convertible bond funds, first - class bond funds, and second - class bond funds were 82%, 61%, and 68% respectively; the institutional holding ratio of short - term bond funds was 55%. The actual institutional holding ratio may be higher in non - quarter - end periods [12][13] Group 5: Potential Scale of Customized Bond Funds - As of the end of September 2025, from the perspective of a single investor, bond funds worth 2.5 trillion yuan had a single - institutional holding ratio exceeding 50%, and if only initiator funds were considered, the scale was 1.3 trillion yuan. Considering only institutional nature, bond funds worth 8.7 trillion yuan had the total institutional investor holding ratio exceeding 50% [14]

Group 1 - The article discusses different types of bond funds, highlighting their risk-return characteristics [2] - Short-term bond funds invest 100% in bonds with a typical investment period of less than one year, exhibiting relatively low volatility [2] - Pure bond funds also invest 100% in bonds but generally offer lower returns [2] - Medium to long-term bond funds typically invest in bonds with a duration of one to five years, providing a stable investment option [2] - First-tier bond funds primarily invest in the bond market (at least 80%) and can also participate in new issues and convertible bonds, balancing risk and return [2] - Mixed bond funds (fixed income +) and second-tier bond funds invest at least 80% in bonds but can also engage in stock trading and new stock subscriptions, presenting higher risk and return profiles [2] Group 2 - The article categorizes investment directions for bond funds, including interest rate bonds (government bonds, central bank bills, policy financial bonds) which are mainly influenced by policy fluctuations [2] - Credit bonds (corporate bonds, short-term financing bonds, convertible bonds) are primarily affected by the creditworthiness of the issuers [2] - Convertible bond funds mainly invest in convertible bonds, combining characteristics of both bonds and stocks [2] Group 3 - The article also mentions classifications based on operational methods, such as ordinary open-end bond funds, which allow subscription and redemption on trading days [3] - Periodically open/shortest holding period bond funds can only be traded during open periods or redeemed after a set holding period [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a correction, with product net values showing differentiation, particularly favoring rights-inclusive fixed income products over traditional bond funds [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Returns Review - In the past month, the bond market corrected while the stock market rose. The performance of products showed differentiation, with rights-inclusive fixed income products yielding 0.54% (down from 0.84%), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit yielding 0.13% (down from 0.14%), and cash management products yielding 0.10% (unchanged). Short-term bond funds yielded 0.05% (up from 0.03%), while medium to long-term bond funds yielded -0.07% (improved from -0.25%) [3][9][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a correction with overall sentiment remaining weak. Short-term bonds outperformed long-term bonds, and the yield curve continued to steepen. Key factors influencing the bond market included a gradual increase in market risk appetite, new regulations on public fund fees, and a weak economic backdrop [11][12][19]. Industry Events Tracking - On September 5, the China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the "Publicly Raised Securities Investment Fund Sales Fee Management Regulations (Draft for Comments)," which aims to lower costs for investors and promote long-term investment [35]. Outlook - **Short-term (1 month)**: The interbank certificate of deposit rates are expected to remain stable, with continued pressure for corrections in the market. Long-term bonds are anticipated to underperform compared to short-term bonds [11]. - **Medium-term (3-6 months)**: Economic recovery and inflation trends are under observation, with the potential for a slight rise in interest rates. If the central bank initiates a new round of interest rate cuts, it may alleviate correction pressures in the bond market [11][30]. Fixed Income Product Strategy - Investors are advised to prioritize short to medium-term products, with caution advised for long-term investments. The strategy includes maintaining cash positions and considering stable low-volatility financial products, short-term bond funds, or wealth management products [36][39]. Equity Market Overview - The A-share market has shown upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 4.0%, the CSI 300 Index up 7.8%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 21% over the past month [28]. Asset Class Trends - The bond market is expected to face increased volatility, with a potential top in interest rate increases. The supply of government bonds is projected to decrease, while demand remains supported, leading to a neutral impact on the bond market [30][31]. Investment Recommendations - For conservative investors, maintaining pure bond products is recommended, with a cautious approach to extending duration. For those with higher risk tolerance, mid to long-term bond funds may be considered as interest rates rise above 1.8% [39][40]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of correction, with varying performance across different products. Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategic approach based on their risk tolerance and market conditions [36][39].

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, the total scale of pure bond funds increased by nearly 100 billion yuan, reaching 9.59 trillion yuan, with a growth of only 938 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [1][13] - The median return of the entire market for pure bond funds was recorded at 0.76%, which is lower than the returns of 2.31% and 1.97% in the same periods of 2024 and 2023 respectively [1][9] - Credit-style products performed better during the turbulent market conditions, with the return of medium to long-term credit bond funds reaching 1.00%, significantly higher than other styles [1][9] Group 2 - The growth of index bond funds has outpaced that of medium to long-term bond funds, with index bond funds contributing 2,504 billion yuan to the total growth of 4,933 billion yuan in the second quarter [2][22] - In the second quarter, index bond funds saw a significant net increase of 3,083 billion yuan, marking the highest quarterly growth since 2019 [3][26] - The credit bond index funds experienced rapid growth, with a net increase of approximately 2,200 billion yuan in the second quarter, raising their market share from 12% to 24% [3][26] Group 3 - The medium to long-term bond fund market experienced a significant style rotation, with balanced and interest rate styles growing while credit styles declined [4][37] - In the second quarter, the medium to long-term bond fund market saw a rebound, with a strong increase of 2,751 billion yuan, although it did not fully recover from the previous quarter's decline [4][40] - The top management firms in the medium to long-term bond fund market maintained a stable structure, with major players like GF Fund, CMB Fund, and Bosera Fund leading in scale [19][40] Group 4 - Short-term and medium-short bond funds ended a three-quarter trend of scale reduction, with short-term funds growing by 17.1% and medium-short funds by 18.5% in the second quarter [5][16] - The total scale of short-term and medium-short bond funds increased from 9,806 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter to 11,458 billion yuan, showing a strong recovery [5][16] - The demand for high liquidity and short-duration assets has been reactivated in a volatile market environment [5][16] Group 5 - The head management firms showed positive growth in scale, with 67 firms achieving growth in the first half of 2025, and 14 of the top 21 firms recording net growth [19][22] - The top five firms in terms of pure bond fund scale were GF Fund, Bosera Fund, and others, with scales of 3,829 billion yuan, 3,623 billion yuan, and 2,976 billion yuan respectively [19][22] - The shift towards credit-style products in the second quarter indicates a changing market preference, with significant growth in credit bond index funds [24][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, the scale of pure - bond funds increased by nearly 100 billion yuan. Credit medium - and long - term bond funds showed outstanding performance in a volatile market, but the overall performance of pure - bond funds was inferior to the same period in previous years. Meanwhile, the expansion of pure - bond funds was hindered, and "Fixed Income +" funds became popular in the market [1]. - The scale of index funds increased significantly beyond the seasonal trend. Credit - based index bond funds witnessed explosive growth, while interest - rate based ones had a recovery. For medium - and long - term bond funds, the equilibrium and interest - rate styles grew in scale, while the credit style declined. Short - term and medium - short - term bond funds ended three consecutive quarters of scale reduction [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1, the scale of pure - bond funds increased by nearly 100 billion yuan 3.1.1 Credit medium - and long - term bond funds showed outstanding performance in a volatile market - In Q1 2025, affected by multiple negative factors, the bond market was under pressure, and the yield center of pure - bond funds dropped significantly. In Q2, due to factors such as increased risk - aversion sentiment and abundant liquidity, the bond market strengthened, and the single - quarter yield center of pure - bond funds turned positive [11]. - The median return of pure - bond funds in H1 2025 was 0.76%, recovering the losses in Q1 but underperforming the same period in 2024 and 2023. Credit - style products were more popular, with the return center of medium - and long - term credit bond funds reaching 1.00%, leading other styles [1][14]. 3.1.2 The expansion of pure - bond funds was hindered, and "Fixed Income +" became popular in the market - The total scale of pure - bond funds increased from 9.50 trillion yuan at the end of 2024 to 9.59 trillion yuan in mid - 2025, with an increase of only 93.8 billion yuan. In contrast, the total scale of "Fixed Income +" funds increased by 256.9 billion yuan to 1.48 trillion yuan. The "market share" of pure - bond funds decreased by nearly 2 percentage points [18]. 3.1.3 Most of the top - tier fund managers saw an increase in scale - In H1 2025, 67 fund managers had positive scale growth, with 16 managers having a scale increase of over 10 billion yuan and 28 managers over 5 billion yuan. Among the 21 top - tier managers, 14 had a net scale increase, mainly in Q2 [23]. - Index - type bond funds quickly replaced medium - and long - term bond funds as the focus of fund managers. Among the 15 fund managers with rapid scale growth in Q2, index - type bond funds contributed 250.4 billion yuan, accounting for over 50% [2][28]. 3.2 By type, the scale growth of index funds was significantly beyond the seasonal trend 3.2.1 Index bond funds: credit - based ones had explosive growth, and interest - rate based ones had a recovery - In Q1 2025, due to the seasonal effect, the scale of index - type bond funds decreased by 92.6 billion yuan. In Q2, the scale increased by 308.3 billion yuan, reaching the highest level since 2019 [33]. - Credit - bond index funds grew rapidly, with a net increase of about 220 billion yuan in Q2, and their proportion in index - type bond funds rose from 12% at the end of Q1 to 24%. Policy - financial bond index funds had a recovery, but their proportion decreased from 71% to 60% [35]. 3.2.2 Medium - and long - term bond funds: the equilibrium and interest - rate styles grew in scale, while the credit style declined - The medium - and long - term bond fund market was first depressed and then rebounded in H1 2025. The scale decreased by 394.6 billion yuan in Q1 and rebounded by 275.1 billion yuan in Q2 but did not fully recover the losses in Q1 [48]. - There was a significant style rotation in H1 2025. In Q1, funds flowed into credit - style products, while in Q2, the equilibrium and interest - rate styles grew, and the credit style shrank. The main reason was the active adjustment of the holding structure of existing funds [48][49]. 3.2.3 Short - term and medium - short - term bond funds: ended three consecutive quarters of scale reduction - In Q2 2025, the scale of short - term and medium - short - term bond funds rebounded, ending the downward trend since Q3 2024. The scale of short - term bond funds increased by 17.1% to 545.5 billion yuan, and that of medium - short - term bond funds increased by 18.5% to 600.5 billion yuan [59]. 3.3 Appendix: Fund classification method - For the selection of the fund list each quarter, start from the initial funds of bond - type funds in the Wind first - level classification and partial - debt hybrid funds in the second - level classification. Eliminate funds that do not meet the requirements to ensure that they are pure - bond funds [67]. - Classify short - term and medium - short - term bond funds based on the full - name matching of fund products, investment scope, performance comparison benchmark, and weighted duration of heavy - position bonds. Classify medium - and long - term bond funds according to the bond - holding situation in the quarterly report and assign style labels [68].

Group 1: Wealth Management Trends - The wealth management scale decreased by CNY 286.4 billion to CNY 31.33 trillion during the week of June 23-27, 2025, marking a significant decline compared to previous years[1] - Historical data shows that the decline in the second quarter has consistently exceeded CNY 1.1 trillion in recent years, indicating a seasonal pattern[2] - In July, the wealth management scale typically experiences seasonal expansion, with historical increases ranging from CNY 1.4 trillion to CNY 2.2 trillion, while June declines are generally between CNY 0.8 trillion and CNY 1.5 trillion[3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average daily purchase of liquidity management assets, such as certificates of deposit, was CNY 12.9 billion from June 16-27, significantly higher than the average of CNY 1.4 billion during the same period in 2022-2024[4] - The average leverage ratio in the interbank market rose from 108.00% to 108.11% during the week of June 23-27, indicating increasing leverage despite a controlled liability pressure on banks[5] - The weighted issuance rate of certificates of deposit decreased to 1.64%, reflecting manageable pressure on banks' balance sheets[6] Group 3: Fund Duration and Risk Indicators - The duration of medium- and long-term bond funds decreased, with the duration of interest rate-based funds dropping from 5.29 years to 5.11 years, while credit-based funds saw a slight decrease from 2.44 years to 2.41 years[7] - The overall negative yield rate for wealth management products decreased to 1.46%, down 2.55 percentage points from the previous week, indicating improved performance[8] - The proportion of underperforming wealth management products fell to 16.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week, suggesting a stabilization in product performance[9]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of financial planning during the upcoming holiday, encouraging individuals to invest their idle funds while enjoying their time off [1][2] - Idle funds are defined as money remaining after covering daily expenses and long-term savings goals, which should be invested for both asset appreciation and liquidity [1] Group 2 - Interbank certificate funds are gaining attention as a preferred investment tool due to declining deposit rates, offering slightly higher yields than traditional products with low volatility, suitable for low to medium-risk investors [3] - The fund primarily invests in AAA-rated interbank certificates issued by major national commercial banks, ensuring low credit risk and allowing for flexible redemption after a seven-day holding period [3] Group 3 - Short- and medium-term bond funds focus on shorter-duration bonds, providing a buffer against equity market volatility, with yields higher than interbank certificate funds but lower than long-term bonds [4][6] - The Guotai Li Xiang Short Bond Fund has a three-year yield of 8.05%, outperforming its peers, and offers a seven-day holding period without redemption fees [5] Group 4 - Long-term bond funds typically offer higher yields and volatility, making them suitable for investors with a holding period of over one year, as they can smooth out fluctuations over time [6] - The Guotai Jiarui Pure Bond Fund employs a strategy combining interest rate bonds and commercial bank bonds, achieving a one-year yield of 6.05%, significantly above the average [7] Group 5 - "Fixed Income Plus" funds diversify between stocks and bonds, providing a safety net with bond assets while allowing for potential equity gains, making them ideal for volatile market conditions [10] - The Guotai Zhao Xiang Tian Li Fund has a one-year yield of 9.92% and a maximum drawdown of -2.27%, outperforming its peers in both performance and risk management [11] Group 6 - Investors are advised to choose funds based on their risk tolerance and liquidity needs, with a reminder that some bond products may limit large purchases before holidays [11]