证券研究报告 多元资产配置系列之二： 低利率时代的FOF多元配置趋势与应用实践 证券分析师 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 任书康 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 陈 瑶 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 研究助理 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 2026年2月26日 高 越 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 投资要点 风险提示：历史业绩不代表未来表现；策略复杂性与成本风险；海外市场汇率风险；流动性风险。 1 发展背景与配置格局：（1）宏观背景：利率持续下行推动资产配置型产品需求抬升。存量产品来看，偏债型FOF通过债券打底、多资产增厚的策略，精准契合了当前市 场资金对于低波动、稳健收益的风险偏好，2025年偏债混合型FOF规模增长176%；增量产品来看，新发产品通过显性化的"多元"标签强化多元资产配置属性。（2）多 元配置格局：越来越多的FOF开始将黄金、商品、港股指数、全球股指纳入基准，香港市场为主的主动及被动基金、QDII权益/混合/债券基金、商品型基金、互认基金、 REITs、中性策略等 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Jintrust Fund faces limitations in cross-border service channels, impacting user experience and operational smoothness, particularly in regions where services are not yet available [1][3]. Group 1: Company Analysis - HSBC Jintrust Fund, as a joint venture, leverages HSBC Group's international resources, particularly in QDII and mutual recognition funds, but may face service gaps due to system integration or localization issues [1][3]. - The fund has made significant investments in its research and technology systems, showcasing a robust foundational capability with a research framework that is "explainable, replicable, and predictable" [3]. - The company has successfully launched long-term products like lifecycle funds, indicating strategic resilience despite current channel limitations [3]. Group 2: Industry Context - The fluidity of cross-border fund services is often constrained by compliance reviews and fund clearing processes, which are complex and not unique to HSBC Jintrust [3]. - HSBC Jintrust has expanded cross-border investment options through channels like Hong Kong Stock Connect, but its coverage in some emerging markets remains behind leading institutions [3]. - The potential for improved service efficiency exists if the company can optimize technical connections in cross-border channels, possibly by leveraging HSBC's global clearing network experience [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market trends in A-shares, highlighting significant sell-offs in growth sectors and the implications of financing regulations on market behavior [5][6][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares experienced a notable index-level pullback, primarily affecting growth sectors [5]. - Financing positions recorded their first net sell-off in 26 years, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6]. - The recent financing regulations, which increased margin requirements from 80% to 100%, may have contributed to this sell-off [6]. Group 2: ETF Activity - Broad-based ETFs saw substantial net sell-offs, with over 58 billion sold in a single day, and a total of over 240 billion in three days [8]. - The trading volume of major ETFs has decreased compared to previous days, suggesting a cooling off in market enthusiasm [8][10]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The satellite and commercial aerospace sectors have experienced significant declines, with the satellite industry index dropping over 20% from its peak [11]. - The article attributes this decline to speculative trading and the influence of e-commerce and content platforms promoting high-risk investments [14]. Group 4: Investment Platforms - WeBank, a leading internet bank, offers advantages for personal investors, including T+0.5 redemption for funds, enhancing capital efficiency [19][20]. - New users of WeBank can benefit from discounted fund purchases by completing a financial literacy course [21]. - WeBank's stringent volatility control for financial products is seen as beneficial for clients [22].

Core Viewpoint - The Greater Bay Area has become a rapidly growing wealth center, with international asset management firms focusing on expanding their presence through various cross-border investment channels like QDII, WMC, and MRF [3][5]. Group 1: Cross-Border Investment Mechanisms - The cross-border investment mechanisms have seen two significant adjustments: the expansion of cross-border wealth management (WMC) to include securities firms and the increase of the Hong Kong mutual fund sales ratio from 50% to 80% [1][8]. - Different frameworks and sales channels cater to diverse customer groups, necessitating international asset management firms to explore suitable product matrices for mainland residents [1][6]. Group 2: Product and Market Insights - The company has two products under the cross-border wealth management scheme, with banks and securities firms each accounting for half of the distribution channels, complementing each other [2][8]. - A mutual fund under the company attracted 1.3 billion HKD in net inflows in November, leading the market, with 11 asset management firms in Hong Kong having launched mutual funds [2][3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Trends - There is a clear trend of asset rotation from fixed deposits to bonds, then to multi-asset and stock markets, with a shift from technology sectors to energy [13][15]. - The company anticipates continued demand for global allocation strategies, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, as investors seek to diversify risks [7][14]. Group 4: Future Product Development - The company plans to increase its mutual fund offerings to three, pending regulatory approval, with a focus on global equity strategies that capture opportunities in energy and infrastructure [10][11]. - The company has established a product matrix that includes global multi-asset, Asian bonds, and global equities, aiming to provide diverse investment options for mainland investors [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese fund industry is actively expanding its global presence, entering a new phase of internationalization characterized by policy-driven growth, diverse products, and two-way capital flow [1][4][6]. Group 1: Internationalization Stages - The internationalization of public funds has progressed through three stages since 2006: the initial stage (2006-2014) focused on breaking into overseas markets with QDII funds and establishing overseas subsidiaries [5]. - The expansion stage (2015-2019) saw the launch of mutual recognition mechanisms between mainland and Hong Kong funds, allowing for two-way capital flow [6]. - The acceleration stage (2020-2024) has led to a more diverse product offering and the establishment of subsidiaries in various countries, moving beyond just Hong Kong [6][7]. Group 2: Recent Developments - In November, significant developments included the listing of the first Thai ETF linked to the ChiNext 50 Index and the launch of two Brazilian ETFs in China, enhancing cross-border investment opportunities [2][3]. - The signing of a cooperation memorandum between the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association and the German Federal Association of Investment and Asset Management indicates growing international collaboration [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The future of public fund internationalization is expected to feature global network expansion, differentiated product strategies, and deeper interconnectivity [7]. - The cross-border ETF market is projected to grow significantly, with a notable increase in scale and penetration rates observed in recent years [7]. - Investment firms are encouraged to adopt a global perspective in asset allocation, emphasizing the importance of professional research support for cross-border ETF strategies [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A and H shares, maintained from previous assessments [7]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates a solid leadership advantage with continuous improvement across various business segments, including wealth management, investment income, and international business [1][2][4]. - The wealth management transformation is deepening, with a focus on building a comprehensive financial service system and expanding cross-border product offerings [2]. - Investment income is steadily growing, with Q3 2025 investment revenue reaching 12.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23% [3]. - The investment banking business maintains a leading position, with a total equity financing underwriting amount of 218.7 billion RMB from January to October 2025, ranking first in the industry [4]. - The international business is gaining momentum, contributing approximately 21% to net profit in H1 2025, up from 16% in H1 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Wealth Management - The company is enhancing its wealth management transformation by establishing a full product system and providing comprehensive financial services. As of Q3 2025, client asset scale has rapidly increased compared to the beginning of the year [2]. Investment Income - The company adopts a balanced investment style across fixed income, equity investments, and derivatives, leading to steady growth in investment performance. Q3 2025 saw a significant increase in investment income, with trading financial assets growing by 7% quarter-on-quarter to 792.9 billion RMB [3]. Investment Banking - The investment banking business continues to lead the market, with a strong project reserve. As of the end of October, there are over 30 domestic IPO projects in the pipeline, and the company ranks first in the market for bond underwriting [4]. International Business - The company is advancing its internationalization strategy, with its international subsidiary contributing 21% to net profit in H1 2025, indicating a growing importance of international operations [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 31.5 billion, 35.5 billion, and 39.1 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.12, 2.39, and 2.64 RMB [5]. The target price is set at 42.24 RMB for A shares and 39.34 HKD for H shares, based on a PB valuation of 2.0 and 1.7 times for 2025 [5].

Core Insights - China's asset management market is projected to exceed 170 trillion yuan by June 2025, positioning it as the second-largest wealth management market globally, marking the beginning of a "big wealth management era" focused on integration and development [1] Group 1: Multi-Dimensional Development - The wealth management chain includes wealth management, asset management, and investment banking, with institutions exploring their strengths to enhance the wealth management ecosystem [2] - CITIC Group, as a leading financial holding group, has a comprehensive range of financial licenses and its subsidiaries, such as CITIC Bank and CITIC Securities, are leaders in their respective sectors [2] - CITIC Bank's personal wealth management scale is nearly 5 trillion yuan, while CITIC Securities' asset management scale exceeds 1.56 trillion yuan, indicating significant market presence [2] Group 2: Wealth Coexistence - The rapid economic growth in China has led to an increase in residents' financial assets, with total investable assets surpassing 300 trillion yuan [4] - The asset management industry is shifting from scale-driven to capability-driven, emphasizing client-centric approaches and resource sharing among various financial institutions [4] - A comprehensive product line and integrated customer service are essential for the transformation of wealth management services [4] Group 3: Connecting the Future - Cross-border investment has become essential for wealth management, with significant growth in demand for global asset allocation among Chinese residents [6] - CITIC is leveraging "connectivity" to build a diverse cross-border asset management service system, enhancing its ability to meet investors' cross-border asset allocation needs [6] - Future plans include expanding cross-border product offerings and collaborating on opportunities in areas like the Belt and Road Initiative and green finance [6]

Core Insights - China's asset management market is projected to exceed 170 trillion yuan by June 2025, positioning it as the second-largest wealth management market globally, marking the beginning of a "Great Wealth Management Era" focused on integration and development [1][3] Group 1: Industry Development - The wealth management chain includes wealth management, asset management, and investment banking, with participants exploring ways to enhance the wealth management ecosystem [2] - CITIC Group, as a leading financial holding group, leverages its comprehensive financial licenses to carve out a unique path in wealth management, with subsidiaries like CITIC Bank and CITIC Securities leading in their respective sectors [3] - CITIC Bank's personal wealth management scale is nearly 5 trillion yuan, while CITIC Securities' asset management scale exceeds 1.56 trillion yuan, indicating significant market presence [3] Group 2: Strategic Focus - CITIC Group aims to align with national strategies such as technological innovation and green development, directing financial resources to key areas of social development [4] - The total wealth management scale of CITIC Group and its subsidiaries has reached 31 trillion yuan, with an asset management scale of 9.8 trillion yuan, serving over 200 million individual and corporate clients [3] Group 3: Professionalism and Collaboration - The asset management industry is shifting from scale-driven to capability-driven approaches, emphasizing client-centric services and resource sharing among various financial institutions [5][6] - Industry experts advocate for deep collaboration across asset, funding, product, and service sectors to enhance professionalism and inclusivity in wealth management [5] Group 4: Global Market Expansion - As residents' wealth accumulates, cross-border investment has become essential for wealth management, with significant participation in programs like the "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect" [7] - CITIC Group is developing a diverse cross-border asset management service system to meet investors' needs for global asset allocation, focusing on mutual recognition funds and other cross-border products [7]

Core Insights - The banking wealth management industry is actively seeking overseas asset allocation to address the challenges posed by a low interest rate environment, as domestic fixed-income product performance benchmarks have dropped from over 4% at the end of 2021 to approximately 2.4% [1][3] Group 1: Low Interest Rate Environment - The one-year fixed deposit rate has fallen below 1% for the first time this year, while the three-year fixed deposit rate has entered the "1" era, indicating a significant decline in interest rates [3] - Various fixed-income asset yields are at historical lows, with the 10-year government bond yield slightly rising but still at a low level compared to historical data [3] Group 2: Cross-Border Investment - Cross-border investment is viewed as a crucial strategy for enhancing product yields in a low interest rate environment, providing diversified options for wealth management products [4] - Multiple channels for cross-border investment include mutual recognition funds, QDII funds, bond connect, and Hong Kong stock connect, allowing for a broader selection of high-cost performance investment targets [4][5] Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - The industry is shifting from a primarily fixed-income asset allocation structure to a multi-asset and multi-strategy approach to mitigate risks and enhance returns [3][4] - Companies are expanding asset categories to include low-correlation assets such as gold, options, REITs, and cross-border assets to reduce product net value volatility and achieve absolute returns [5][8] Group 4: Changing Wealth Structure - The total savings of Chinese residents increased from 93 trillion yuan at the end of 2020 to 162 trillion yuan by June 2025, with per capita savings exceeding 115,000 yuan [7] - The proportion of real estate in residents' wealth has decreased from 54.6% in 2020 to 48.7% in 2024, while financial assets have increased to 47.6% [7] Group 5: Industry Trends and Challenges - The traditional profit model of relying on "interest income + leverage" is becoming unsustainable, prompting a need for innovation and research in technology to capture excess returns [8] - The banking wealth management industry has surpassed 32 trillion yuan in scale, with a focus on differentiated positioning and strategy-driven asset management to enhance product performance stability [8][9]

Core Insights - As of June 2025, China's total asset management scale exceeds 170 trillion yuan, making it the second-largest wealth management market globally, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 8% over the past five years [1] - The "Great Wealth Management Era" is characterized by the integration and development of various financial sectors, driven by the need for wealth preservation and growth amid global economic uncertainties [1][2] - The second "CITIC Wealth Management Conference" highlighted the role of wealth management institutions in bridging the gap between the real economy and residents' wealth [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - The wealth management chain includes wealth management, asset management, and investment banking, with CITIC Financial Holdings leveraging its comprehensive financial licenses to carve a unique path in the wealth management sector [2] - CITIC Financial Holdings has a total wealth management scale of 31 trillion yuan and an asset management scale of 9.8 trillion yuan, serving over 200 million individual and corporate clients [3] - The Chinese middle-income group is the largest globally, with total investable assets exceeding 300 trillion yuan, indicating a growing demand for wealth management services [4] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - CITIC Financial Holdings aims to align with national strategies such as technological innovation and green development, directing financial resources to key areas of social development [3] - The industry is shifting from a scale-oriented approach to a capability-oriented one, focusing on customer-centric services and risk management through collaboration among leading asset management institutions [5][6] - The introduction of the "Xincheng Growth" charity platform aims to leverage the product creation capabilities of various CITIC financial institutions to support educational initiatives, with over 10 million yuan donated this year [8] Group 3: Global Market Expansion - Cross-border investment has become essential for wealth management, with the "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect" attracting 164,600 investors and facilitating over 120 billion yuan in cross-border transactions by July 2025 [7] - CITIC is enhancing its cross-border asset management services, focusing on mutual recognition funds, QDII funds, and opportunities in the Belt and Road Initiative and green finance [7] - The company is committed to optimizing global asset allocation for investors, seeking the best risk-return ratios through collaboration with various asset management institutions [9]