半年多，一千亿，这轮外卖大战的账本已经摊开在台面上。 根据摩根大通测算，美团按日单量大约占市场50%，淘宝闪购约42%，京东8%。美团与淘宝闪购各自占据半壁江山，京东积累经验与口 碑，"美团一家独大"的外卖时代已经结束。 一、外卖大战真正比的是什么 如果仅聚焦于外卖领域的短期攻防，各方各有得失；但如果把视角从"外卖"本身，拉长到即时零售消费场景，以及大消费和服务电商赛道，答 案就开始变得清晰起来。 美团遭遇上市以来最大亏损，利润下跌198亿元；阿里和京东净利润也出现下降。三家巨头在外卖和即时零售赛道上，半年合计投入超过千亿 元，而换来的，是一个被重新改写的市场格局，更是激活万亿级即时消费需求、重构零售效率的全新产业机会。 今年以来，在阿里生态协同加持下，原本以外卖见长的饿了么完成了一次关键升级：从一个蓝色外卖App，全面焕新为在品牌认知层面，拥有 外卖优势与即时零售双重品牌认知的 "淘宝闪购"橙色品牌。 此次饿了么APP全量焕新为淘宝闪购，被视为是阿里集团对大消费和服务电商赛道继续投入的重要信号。在业内分析看来，此次品牌焕新发 布，不只是平台顺应当下消费趋势变化进行的主动升级举措，更将进一步带来商业范式和市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's decision to rebrand Ele.me to "Taobao Flash Purchase" reflects a strategic shift to enhance its market position in the instant retail sector, aiming to leverage the strengths of both brands for better user engagement and service delivery [3][7]. Group 1: Brand Strategy - The rebranding aims to overcome the limitation of Ele.me being perceived solely as a food delivery service, allowing for the expansion into various categories like fast-moving consumer goods, daily necessities, and pharmaceuticals [3]. - "Taobao Flash Purchase" combines the broad recognition of "Taobao" with the immediacy of "Flash Purchase," aligning with the core characteristics of modern instant retail [3]. Group 2: Market Positioning - The instant retail market is highly competitive, with Meituan holding a 52% market share and JD Daojia capturing 12%, necessitating Alibaba to consolidate resources to gain a competitive edge in the "30-minute delivery" battle [4]. - The integration of Ele.me's delivery network with Taobao's user base creates a seamless flow from front-end traffic to back-end fulfillment, enhancing overall operational efficiency [3]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Since the launch of Taobao Flash Purchase in April, peak daily orders reached 120 million, with monthly active buyers exceeding 300 million, contributing to a 20% year-on-year increase in daily active users on the Taobao app [6]. - The rebranding has not disrupted user experience, as existing accounts, balances, and coupons remain functional, ensuring a smooth transition for users [6]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The rebranding signifies a broader trend in the instant retail industry towards full-scenario digital transformation, as noted by industry experts [7].

Core Insights - The traditional supermarket industry is facing significant challenges, with major players like RT-Mart, Walmart, and Yonghui closing hundreds of stores, totaling 3,037 closures, averaging 8 stores per day [1][3][25] - Consumer preferences are shifting towards online grocery shopping, with services like Meituan and JD Daojia becoming increasingly popular, leading to a decline in foot traffic at physical stores [5][10][25] - Supermarkets are adapting by transforming stores into fulfillment centers for online orders, but this has resulted in a less appealing shopping experience for customers [7][10][25] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly reluctant to visit supermarkets due to the inconvenience of travel and long wait times, preferring the convenience of online shopping [3][5] - The perception of supermarkets as a reliable source for fresh produce has diminished, with many consumers now finding online delivery options more appealing [5][10] - Traditional shopping habits are changing, with consumers now focused on efficiency and direct access to desired products rather than browsing [12][15] Supermarket Operations - Supermarkets are reconfiguring their layouts and operations to accommodate online orders, with a significant portion of inventory now designated for online fulfillment [7][10] - The traditional supermarket model, which relied on strategic product placement to encourage impulse buying, is becoming less effective as consumers are more goal-oriented in their shopping [12][15] - Price strategies that once attracted customers are losing effectiveness due to increased price transparency through online comparisons [15][19] Competitive Landscape - New retail formats like Sam's Club and Hema are successfully attracting customers with unique offerings and experiences, such as fresh food and live seafood, contrasting with traditional supermarkets [19][20][25] - Yonghui is attempting to adapt by increasing its online order share and introducing smaller, more focused store formats, but faces challenges in supply chain and digital transformation [23][25] - The retail industry is undergoing a significant transformation, with the survival of traditional supermarkets dependent on their ability to innovate and adapt to changing consumer demands [25][27]

Core Insights - JD.com reported total revenues of RMB299.1 billion in 3Q25, a 14.9% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations by 1.6% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB5.8 billion, which is 39.5% above the consensus estimate of RMB4.15 billion [1] - JD Retail achieved a record gross profit margin of 5.9% in 3Q25, driven by stronger 3P commission and advertising revenue [2] Financial Performance - GAAP gross profit grew 12.1% year-over-year to RMB50.5 billion, with a gross margin of 16.9% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit was RMB211 million, reflecting a 0.1% margin, supported by higher revenue and improved gross profit [1] - JD Retail revenue rose 11% year-over-year, with significant growth in general merchandise, particularly in supermarkets and apparel [2] Business Segments - The New Businesses segment reported an operating loss of RMB15.7 billion in 3Q25, with a focus on balancing long-term expansion and profit discipline [3] - JD Food Delivery is optimizing operational efficiency and is expected to narrow quarterly losses in the future [3] - Joybuy is expanding in Europe, currently testing operations in the UK, France, Germany, and the Netherlands [3] Technological Advancements - JD has launched new AI products and upgraded its retail technology infrastructure, enhancing operational efficiency [4] - The AI customer service system handled 4.2 billion inquiries during the Singles' Day festival, showcasing significant operational capabilities [4] - JD Logistics expanded the deployment of automation robots and robovans across over 20 provinces [4] Valuation and Market Position - JD's core business remains stable, but profit growth is expected to moderate to around 10% as trade-in benefits taper [5] - JD trades at US$30.71 per ADS, with an enterprise value of US$32.55 billion, representing a discount to peers valued at 16x and 21x EV/EBITDA for CY2025 and CY2026, respectively [5] - Consensus forecasts CY2025 EBITDA at US$2.92 billion and CY2026 EBITDA at US$5.57 billion [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of China's e-commerce industry, particularly focusing on the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, which has transformed from a niche event into the world's largest shopping extravaganza since its inception in 2009 [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Evolution of Double Eleven Strategies - The Double Eleven event can be divided into three main phases from 2015 to 2024, each characterized by distinct features and competitive dynamics [4]. - The first phase (2015-2017) was dominated by Alibaba's Taobao/Tmall and JD.com, with a focus on price competition and traffic acquisition. Sales figures grew from 91.2 billion yuan in 2015 to 168.2 billion yuan in 2017 [7]. - The second phase (2018-2020) saw the entry of content platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, leading to a more intense competition landscape. Pinduoduo emerged as a significant player with its social group-buying model [8][9]. - The third phase (2021-2024) marked a shift towards refined operations, with platforms focusing on user experience and sustainable growth. Sales peaked at 540.3 billion yuan in 2021, but platforms began emphasizing quality metrics over gross merchandise volume (GMV) [10]. Group 2: Tactical Evolution of Major Platforms - Taobao/Tmall's pricing strategy evolved from "site-wide 50% off" to complex promotional rules, and finally to simplified rules like "official discounts" starting in 2023 [12][44]. - JD.com maintained a straightforward pricing strategy, introducing "official discounts" and "instant sales" while enhancing its logistics capabilities, achieving an average fulfillment time of 18 minutes by 2025 [18][76]. - Pinduoduo's strategy shifted from "lowest price" to "same price for the same item," reflecting a focus on merchant interests and product quality [24][77]. - Douyin e-commerce emphasized content-driven sales, integrating short videos and live streaming to create a seamless shopping experience, with significant sales growth during the Double Eleven period [31][79]. - Kuaishou e-commerce leveraged its "old iron economy" to build strong relationships with users, achieving high repurchase rates through trust-based interactions [37][40]. Group 3: Key Tactical Dimensions - Pricing strategies across platforms transitioned from complex calculations to straightforward discounts, with a notable emphasis on user-friendly promotions [44][46]. - Traffic acquisition methods evolved from traditional advertising to content marketing, with platforms increasingly relying on live streaming and social media to attract users [48][51]. - User operations shifted towards precision marketing, with platforms utilizing data analytics to enhance user engagement and loyalty [55][58]. - Supply chain management became a focal point, with platforms investing in logistics efficiency and real-time delivery capabilities to improve customer experience [62][65].

Core Insights - Alibaba's logistics arm, Cainiao, is collaborating with Taobao's flash purchase service to provide "hourly delivery" in select cities, marking a significant internal synergy within Alibaba's ecosystem [1][2] - The instant retail market in China is rapidly growing, with a market size of 650 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.89%, and is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [2] - Cainiao's involvement is expected to enhance Taobao's supply chain and delivery efficiency, addressing challenges in the broader consumer goods category [3] Group 1 - Cainiao has begun offering services in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Nanjing, with plans to expand to more key cities, covering categories such as electronics, clothing, beauty, and food [1][2] - The instant retail market has attracted major players like Meituan, JD.com, and Douyin, each leveraging their unique strengths to capture market share [2] - Taobao's flash purchase service has previously established a foothold in light dining but faces challenges in broader consumer goods supply chain depth and fulfillment efficiency [2][3] Group 2 - Cainiao's supply chain solution is expected to provide a more efficient alternative to the crowd-sourced delivery model, enhancing the overall logistics framework [3] - The company has developed a nationwide warehousing and distribution network, which supports its innovative "pre-sale express delivery" model, allowing for rapid order fulfillment [3] - This enhanced delivery experience is crucial for Taobao's competitive positioning in the instant retail sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the instant retail and delivery sector has intensified, particularly with JD's entry into the food delivery market, leading to a focus on delivery capabilities rather than just traffic acquisition [1][12]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - JD Logistics has officially completed the acquisition of two subsidiaries, Dajian and Dasheng, from JD Group for $270 million, marking a significant move in the instant delivery space [1][6]. - Dajian and Dasheng were previously core entities of Dada Group's instant delivery business, with Dajian being the main operational entity in China [2][4]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The acquisition is part of JD's broader strategy to enhance its logistics capabilities and integrate Dada's instant delivery assets into its logistics framework, aiming to reduce fulfillment costs and improve delivery efficiency [8][9]. - By integrating Dada's network into JD Logistics, the company seeks to streamline operations and enhance its competitive edge in the instant retail market, particularly during high-demand periods like the Double 11 shopping festival [1][10]. Group 3: Market Context - The instant delivery market is becoming increasingly competitive, with JD's aggressive expansion leading to significant financial losses, prompting the need for strategic realignment through acquisitions [12][13]. - Dada's previous financial struggles, including a significant drop in market valuation and operational challenges, have created an opportunity for JD to absorb its assets and potentially revalue them within its ecosystem [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese food delivery market is entering a "strong constraint" era due to intensified regulations aimed at curbing irrational competition and excessive subsidies among major platforms [1][4][6]. Regulatory Environment - The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) has mandated major food delivery platforms to adhere strictly to laws and regulations, prohibiting unfair competition and harmful subsidies [4][6]. - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law introduced in 2025 explicitly prohibits platforms from forcing merchants to sell below cost, providing a legal basis to combat harmful subsidies [6]. Market Dynamics - The food delivery market has seen a significant shift in competition, evolving from a "duopoly" dominated by Meituan and Ele.me to a "tripartite" battle involving Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com [3][14]. - Following JD.com's entry into the market with a "0 commission + 10 billion subsidies" strategy, a fierce subsidy war ensued, leading to extreme promotional tactics and a surge in order volumes [5][9]. Financial Impact - The intense competition has severely eroded profits for the major players. For instance, Meituan's adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 plummeted by 89% year-on-year, while Alibaba and JD.com also reported significant profit declines [9][10]. - High marketing expenditures have become a norm, with the three companies collectively spending over 1 trillion yuan on sales and marketing in Q2 2025, averaging over 30 billion yuan per month [9][10]. Merchant and Consumer Behavior - Merchants are increasingly diversifying their partnerships across multiple platforms to mitigate risks associated with reliance on a single platform [11]. - The competitive landscape has led to a re-evaluation of consumer preferences, with active user engagement on the apps of Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com showing varying growth rates [14]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict a potential shift towards a "duopoly" market structure, with Alibaba and Meituan leading, contingent on continued financial investments and strategic adaptations [16]. - The industry is expected to transition from a "price war" to a "value war," focusing on technological innovation and sustainable business practices to foster long-term growth [17].

Group 1 - Approximately 30%-40% of grid warehouse operators are choosing to transform into self-operated community group buying, leveraging existing sorting teams and delivery networks to build systems within a month after warehouse closure [3][9] - Meituan Youxuan had over 3,000 grid warehouse sites covering 90% of town markets before its planned withdrawal in June 2025, with daily order volumes peaking at tens of thousands but later declining to below 5,000 due to increasing losses [4][9] - The transformation relies on localized resources and community group buying system support, with successful transitions more likely for sites with mature supply chain capabilities [5][9] Group 2 - About 60%-70% of the sites are shifting towards non-community group buying areas, including instant retail delivery, third-party logistics services, and agricultural supply chain management [7][9] - Some low-efficiency sites are opting to sell off equipment or exit the market entirely, while self-operated community group buying incurs additional costs that may pressure smaller sites financially [7][9] - The competitive landscape for instant retail is dominated by giants like Meituan Shanguo and JD Daojia, necessitating grid warehouses to upgrade to front warehouses or join platform ecosystems for survival [7][9]

Summary of JD.com's Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: JD.com - **Date**: August 14, 2025 Key Financial Metrics - JD.com reported a **22% year-over-year revenue growth**, reaching **RMB 357 billion** [3][4] - Non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was **RMB 7.4 billion**, down from **RMB 14.5 billion** year-over-year, primarily due to investments in new businesses [3][4] - Operating profit under non-GAAP increased by **38%** to **RMB 13.9 billion**, with operating margin rising from **3.9% to 4.5%** [2][3][4] User Growth and Engagement - Quarterly Active Customers (QAC) grew by over **40% year-over-year**, with shopping frequency also increasing by over **40%** [2][5] - Membership user shopping frequency surged by over **50%** [5] - During the 618 shopping festival, the number of purchasing users more than doubled, with total orders exceeding **2.2 billion** [2][5] Supply Chain and Product Performance - JD's supply chain capabilities continued to strengthen, with electronics and home appliances revenue growing by **23%** and general merchandise revenue by **16%** [2][6] - Supermarket category maintained double-digit growth for six consecutive quarters, while fashion also saw double-digit growth [2][6] New Business Developments - New initiatives, including JD Daojia, experienced exponential growth in daily order volume and a rapid increase in full-time delivery drivers [2][7] - Urban food delivery services showed synergy with core retail operations, enhancing performance in supermarkets and lifestyle services [2][7] International Expansion Strategy - JD.com is establishing localized operations in Europe and the Middle East, focusing on retail formats, warehousing, and transportation infrastructure [4][8] - The company aims to leverage its supply chain and technology advantages in international markets [8][33] Long-term Strategic Goals - JD.com aims to serve **1 billion e-commerce users** in China, focusing on enhancing user experience, reducing costs, and improving efficiency [29] - The company plans to continue strategic investments to achieve sustainable user growth and value creation [29][32] Profitability and Margin Expansion - Core retail business profitability is driven by improved supply chain efficiency, leading to lower costs and enhanced operational efficiency [30] - The gross profit margin for the second quarter reached **15.9%**, with a **23%** year-over-year increase in gross profit [14][11] Challenges and Future Outlook - The company faces short-term pressure on net income due to strategic investments in new business areas, particularly in food delivery [14][32] - JD.com is committed to maintaining a balance between investment in growth and shareholder returns, including stock buybacks and dividends [25][32] Conclusion - JD.com demonstrated strong financial performance and user engagement in the second quarter, with significant growth in both core and new business areas. The company is strategically positioned for long-term growth through supply chain enhancements and international expansion efforts.