2025 年 08 月 25 日 吉比特 (603444) ——1H25 亮眼，《问道手游》企稳、《仗剑》贡献超预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 461.31 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 464.98/169.46 | | 市净率 | 6.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.17 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 33,233 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,883.56/12,441.07 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 73.48 | | 资产负债率% | 20.42 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 72/72 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 05-26 06 ...

吉比特 20250820 摘要 吉比特 2025 年上半年营收同比增 81.18%，主要受益于新游《问剑长 生》和《仗剑传说》的增量贡献，以及《封神幻想世界》的持续收益。 《问道手游》收入略有下降，但整体表现稳健。 核心产品《问道手游》运营九年，累计注册用户超 5,000 万，二季度流 水基本持平。《仗剑传说》上线后，国内畅销榜最高排名第四，并已进 入日本及中国港澳台市场。 《仗剑传说》创新性地融合了放置框架与 MMO 核心玩法，旨在降低传 统 MMO 的沉重感，其强社交属性有助于延长游戏生命周期，但具体效 果仍待观察。 吉比特计划 2025 年上半年每股分红 6.6 元，总额约 4.74 亿元，占当期 归母净利润的 73.46%。上市以来累计分红 64.89 亿元，是累计融资净 额的 7.2 倍。 公司在海外市场采取稳健策略，优先深耕港澳台地区，并积极准备进入 日本市场。《断剑》等产品在题材选择上考虑文化壁垒，以提高海外市 场接受度。 Q&A 吉比特 2025 年上半年的业绩表现如何？ 2025 年上半年，吉比特的营业收入为 25.18 亿元，同比增长 28.49%。归母 净利润达到 6.45 亿元，同比增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [3][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 2.518 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 645 million yuan, up 24.5% year-on-year, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 1.077 billion yuan, reflecting an 81.18% increase [4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 66 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 474 million yuan, which accounts for 73.46% of the half-year net profit [4]. - The gross margin significantly improved to 92.31% in the first half of 2025, up from 88.22% in the same period last year, driven by better margins in self-operated and joint-operated businesses [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2023A: Revenue of 4.185 billion yuan, net profit of 1.125 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue of 3.696 billion yuan, net profit of 945 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 5.227 billion yuan, net profit of 1.593 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 6.795 billion yuan, net profit of 1.881 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 7.338 billion yuan, net profit of 2.011 billion yuan [3][10]. - The company expects a revenue growth rate of 41% in 2025, followed by 30% in 2026 and 8% in 2027 [7]. Product Performance - The company launched two self-developed games in the first half of 2025, which performed exceptionally well. "Wanjian Changsheng" generated 566 million yuan in revenue, while "Zhangjian Chuanqi" reached 424 million yuan within a month of its launch [6]. - Existing products showed mixed results, with "Wandao Mobile" generating 1.071 billion yuan, down 7.25% year-on-year, and "Wandao" online game revenue at 159 million yuan, down 11.55% year-on-year [6].

Group 1 - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the media sector, highlighting the importance of performance and the potential opportunities in AI applications and IP trends [3][6]. - In July 2025, the media sector (Shenwan Media Index) rose by 3.18%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.37 percentage points, ranking 18th among 31 industries [4][17]. - The current TTM-PE for the Shenwan Media Index is 44.9x, placing it in the 93rd percentile over the past five years, indicating a relatively high valuation [17][22]. Group 2 - The gaming market showed sustained growth in the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of 168 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.08% [33]. - From January to July 2025, 946 game licenses were issued, a 19.1% increase year-on-year, with July alone seeing over 100 domestic game licenses approved [4][24]. - The overseas revenue for self-developed Chinese games reached 9.5 billion USD in the first half of 2025, marking an 11.1% year-on-year growth, with the US, Japan, and South Korea being the primary markets [34][42]. Group 3 - The film market in July 2025 saw a total box office of 4.067 billion yuan, a decline of 24.4% year-on-year, although it experienced a month-on-month increase of 113.7% [52][57]. - The film "Nanjing Photo Studio" performed well, contributing positively to the box office in August, despite its late July release [57][60]. - The number of film registrations has shown a significant increase of 60% year-on-year since 2023, indicating a potential recovery in quality content supply starting in 2025 [60][64]. Group 4 - The WAIC conference showcased rapid advancements in embodied intelligence, with over 150 humanoid robots presented, highlighting significant breakthroughs in the field [75][82]. - The AIGC application DeepSeek topped the user growth chart with 163 million monthly active users, indicating strong market appeal [83][84]. - The Kimi K2 high-speed model was released, significantly increasing output speed from 10 tokens per second to 40 tokens per second, enhancing its application in real-time scenarios [87][92].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming industry is currently experiencing an upward cycle driven by the demand for mental and emotional consumption, alongside an increase in game supply [1][3][6] - New consumer trends have emerged, particularly among Generation Z, post-2000s, and female users, leading to a strong demand for innovative game categories such as anime, party games, and simulation games [1][3][7] Market Performance - In Q1 2025, the domestic gaming market in China reached a scale of 857.04 billion yuan, representing an 18% year-on-year growth [1][11] - The average monthly issuance of game licenses is expected to be 118 in 2024, with a stable increase in the number of domestic game licenses in the first half of 2025, peaking at 157 in June [1][10] New Game Releases - New games have performed better than expected, with titles like "Supernatural Action Team," "Cooking Battle," and "Sword Legend" achieving significant success [1][12][14] - "Supernatural Action Team" has climbed to the 37th position on the iPhone bestseller list, while "Cooking Battle" maintains a daily active user (DAU) count in the millions [12][14] Investment Logic - The investment logic for the gaming sector is based on the industry's entry into an upward cycle, driven by user demand and the release of new game categories [3][6] - AI technology is increasingly empowering game development, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs, which is expected to lead to new business models [3][21] Future Trends - The gaming industry is expected to continue growing, supported by strong consumer demand, the expansion of new user groups, and innovation in game categories [6][8] - The emergence of light casual games and virtual social games is anticipated to further broaden the user base and enhance payment capabilities [6][8] Policy Support - Recent policy initiatives have provided significant support for the gaming industry, including measures to promote game exports and high-quality development [18][24] Investment Opportunities - The gaming sector is deemed to have high investment value, with reasonable valuations and potential for upward movement [24] - Recommended stocks include New East Company, Giant Network, Kaiying Network, Sheng Tian Network, and Perfect World, which are expected to benefit from product cycles and AI integration [25] Conclusion - The gaming industry is positioned for growth, with favorable market conditions, innovative game releases, and supportive policies creating a conducive environment for investment opportunities [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the gaming sector, highlighting a monthly high in game approvals and encouraging summer promotions [4]. Core Insights - The gaming sector is expected to benefit from a significant increase in new game approvals, with 158 new games (147 domestic and 11 imported) approved in June, marking a new monthly high for the year. This trend indicates a clear easing of regulatory constraints [4]. - The mid-term growth drivers include the expansion of overseas markets and the consumption demands of the post-90s and post-00s generations, improved competitive dynamics leading to better-than-expected profit margins, and AI developments enhancing valuation options [4]. - Key companies such as Giant Network, Huya, and others are expected to show strong performance, with new game launches and innovative strategies aimed at attracting younger users [4]. Summary by Sections Gaming Sector - The report emphasizes the ongoing recommendation for the gaming sector, driven by new game approvals and summer promotional activities. The mid-term logic includes overseas expansion and evolving consumer preferences [4]. - Notable companies like Tencent, NetEase, and Giant Network are highlighted for their expected revenue and profit growth, with specific projections for 2025 and 2026 [6]. AI and Internet Media - AI applications in platforms like Kuaishou and Meitu are showing better-than-expected commercialization, with significant user engagement and innovative content offerings [4]. - The report discusses the potential of AI in education and advertising, with companies like New Oriental launching AI educational products and Tencent enhancing ad efficiency through AI [4]. Consumer Trends - The report identifies high-demand consumer segments in collectibles, music, and live events, with companies like Pop Mart and NetEase Music showing strong growth trajectories [4]. - The report also notes the resilience of advertising platforms like Focus Media, which is expected to benefit from partnerships that enhance media value [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming industry is experiencing accelerated growth in the first four months of 2025, driven by low base effects, long-term operations, and new product launches, with overseas markets showing particularly strong performance, achieving a growth rate of approximately 18% in Q1 and maintaining a significant single-digit growth in April [1][3][9] - The overall valuation of the gaming industry is expected to rise from a range of 15-20 times to 20-25 times, contingent on sustained industry prosperity and influx of new capital [1][5] Company Performances Century Huatong - Benefiting from the success of "Whiteout Survival" and the domestic version "Endless Winter," with overseas monthly revenue reaching approximately $150 million and domestic revenue around $110 million [1][12] - The new game "King's Shot" launched in Q1 is projected to generate monthly revenue of $30-40 million, with optimistic annual performance expectations [1][12] Giant Network - Stable revenue from existing games, with the new game "Super Burning Action Group" showing increasing internal test data, achieving monthly revenue of $20-30 million in May [1][6][13] - The company is expected to see further revenue growth with increased marketing efforts [1][6] 37 Interactive Entertainment (Ji Bi Te) - Existing products "Wen Dao" and "Yi Nian Xiao Yao" maintain stable performance, while the new game "Wen Dao Chang Sheng" contributes additional revenue [1][6][14] - Upcoming new products are expected to continue generating interest and revenue in the second half of the year [1][6] Kying Network - The AI dating game "Evadix" has received positive reviews, with significant commercial potential and stable long-term operational capabilities [2][15] - Expected net profit for 2025 is projected to exceed 2 billion yuan, with two major titles, "Douluo Dalu" and "Tomb Raider Notes," set to launch in the second half of the year [2][16] Perfect World - Anticipated to become a major player in the domestic market, with expectations for a new product to generate revenue between 6 to 8 billion yuan, and optimistic projections reaching up to 10 billion yuan [17] - The company has shown significant improvement in Q1 2025, primarily driven by the "Zhu Xian" online game, with further mobile game releases expected to enhance revenue [17] Policy Environment - Increased support from government policies for the gaming industry, with various provinces implementing measures to promote local gaming industries, including stable issuance of domestic and imported game licenses [7][8] Market Trends - The overall market data from January to April 2025 indicates a recovery in revenue growth, with a notable performance from overseas markets and several companies exceeding expectations [9][10] - The upcoming summer peak season is expected to bring positive changes in sequential data, with a favorable policy environment supporting innovation and overseas business development [11] Conclusion - The gaming industry is on a positive trajectory, with various companies demonstrating growth potential and unique advantages. Kying Network and Perfect World are particularly noteworthy for their strong performance and future prospects, reflecting the overall positive trend in the gaming sector [18]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming sector in China experienced a strong recovery, with April 2025 domestic gaming market revenue increasing by 22% year-on-year to 27.35 billion yuan, driven primarily by mobile games which grew by 28.4% [1][5] - The overseas mobile gaming revenue from China also saw a growth of 9.6% year-on-year, reaching 1.554 billion USD, indicating the increasing competitiveness of Chinese games in the global market [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - The gaming sector has been performing well since Q3 2024, with a continued positive outlook into 2025, supported by product cycles, favorable policies, and the emergence of AI-native games [2] - Major gaming companies like Tencent, NetEase, and miHoYo are expected to launch significant new products in Q4 2025, which will drive market growth [1][7] - The A-share gaming market is anticipated to maintain high growth rates in Q3 and Q4 2025, with several new games in testing phases [7] Company-Specific Highlights - **Perfect World**: The new game "异火" is expected to generate over 5 billion yuan in its first year, and the company has undergone management changes to improve operational efficiency [3][19] - **Giant Network**: The game "超自然行动组" has exceeded expectations in economic performance, with a projected 15% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025 [11][30] - **ST Huatuo**: The company’s product "Wild Chaos Survival" has maintained its position as a top overseas mobile game, with monthly revenue exceeding 200 million USD [1][12] Emerging Trends and Innovations - The gaming industry is leveraging innovative business models and technologies, such as AI and IP integration, to enhance user engagement and revenue [4][28] - The introduction of AI gameplay in games like "太空杀" has shown significant user acceptance, with a 30% penetration rate among daily active users [28] Future Product Pipeline - Notable upcoming games include Tencent's "DNF Mobile" and miHoYo's "绝区 0", which are expected to further propel industry growth [6] - Companies like 凯英网络 and 吉比特 have a robust pipeline of new games, with several already showing promising early performance [8][10] Financial Performance Expectations - ST Huatuo is projected to achieve revenues of 5 to 5.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a strong performance from its core products [17] - Perfect World is expected to see a profit of 2.6 billion yuan in 2025, supported by multiple new game launches [22] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in ST Huatuo, Perfect World, 凯英网络, 吉比特, and Giant Network, citing their strong product pipelines and favorable market conditions [31]