浙商证券股份有限公司 浙商证券股份有限公司 10月防守，11月进攻 传媒互联网行业四季度策略报告 行业评级：看好 2025年10月15日 | 分析师 | | 分析师 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | fengcuiting@stocke.com.c 邮箱 n | xuziwei@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 chenlei01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 S1230525010001 | | 证书编号 S1230524120005 | 证书编号 S1230521090002 | □ 10月开盘遇外围因素影响,创业板/TMT避险情绪高涨,前期估值快速提升的游戏板块及阿里巴巴等个股出现不同程度的调整 传媒指数(中信):自9月25日至10月14日3659.98高位下调近10个百分点; 游戏指数(中信)：自9月25日至10月14日2259.37高位下调近14个百分点; 阿里巴巴-W: 自10月3日至10月14日186.2元高位下调近17个百分点 口 但上述板块及个股基本面表现依然强势,建议择机买入: 阿里巴巴云业务表现能支撑估值上调，腾讯游戏及 ...

恺英网络 20251214 摘要 2025 年第三季度，游戏板块的涨幅主要是由于交易业绩层面的上修，目前还 没有达到 AI 宏大趋势的地步。9 月底，板块平均估值达到了 25 倍的阶段性高 点，但经过 10 月和 11 月的调整，目前回落到 19~20 倍区间。长期来看，我 们看好整体板块估值能达到 25~30 倍区间。每次市场风格在业绩大票走趋势 时，游戏板块通常会有不错表现。 游戏板块近期回调对机构投资者意味着什么？ 近期回调对于机构来说是一个难得的上车机会。此前观望资金一直在等待较低 买点位置，无论从整体板块还是龙头个股如世纪华通来看，这波调整后估值回 落至 19~20 倍，再往上看到 25 倍甚至 30 倍，有 40%~50%的涨幅空间，加 传奇盒子广告收入增长潜力巨大，目前市占率不到 10%，若能占据 30%的市场份额，年收入将达到 30-40 亿元，相比当前有两到三倍的增 长空间。 恺英网络 2025 年利润预计从 16 亿增至 22 亿，传奇盒子贡献显著增量， 2026 年利润有望达到 26 亿，若加速放量，利润可能冲击 30 亿体量， 公司作为平台型稀缺标的值得看好。 上一些弹性个股，这样收益 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming sector's valuation has reached a lower limit of 15 times, with expectations of maintaining high prosperity and performance growth certainty through 2026, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1][3][25] - The A-share market recommends a "3+2" combination: Giant Network, Kaiying Network, and Century Huatong as stable fundamentals; Gibit and 37 Interactive are positioned lower but showing recent improvements [1][4] Company-Specific Insights Tencent - Expected to launch multiple mid-sized new games in 2026, with a diverse range of genres [7] - Notable titles include "Under One Person," "Rock Kingdom World," and "Monster Hunter Traveler" [7] NetEase - Anticipates additional revenue of 2-3 billion from international IP adaptations and domestic MMO games [2][24] - Key upcoming titles include "Forgotten Sea" and "Infinite," with the former developed by the team behind "Identity V" [7][24] Giant Network - "Famous General Kill" is expected to contribute 200-300 million in profit, with "Supernatural Action Group" potentially increasing annual revenue to 7-8 billion if successful during the Spring Festival [10][12] Kaiying Network - The "Legend Box" platform is driving growth, with DAU expected to reach 650,000 to 700,000 by the end of 2026, and annual advertising revenue projected at around 2.4 billion [10][13] Bilibili - Strong growth in advertising business, with expectations to outperform the overall internet advertising growth rate [21] - Anticipated game revenue growth in the low double digits, with "Three Kingdoms Hundred Generals Card" projected to generate 1-1.5 billion [21] Gibit - Recent performance impacted by a decline in revenue from "Sword of the World," but new game "Nine Mu of the Wild" expected to contribute 1-1.5 billion [19][20] Heart Company - Facing stock price pressure but has potential due to rapid progress in programmatic advertising, with profits expected to reach 150-200 million in 2026 [22] Market Trends and Predictions - The gaming sector is expected to maintain strong growth certainty compared to other sectors, with a focus on identifying high-certainty investment targets [25] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to be stable, with significant product launches concentrated in the summer [11][25] Additional Insights - The competitive landscape is expected to increase in 2026, but companies will focus on their strengths without excessive suppression of smaller firms [11] - The overall sentiment is optimistic for the gaming industry, with a recommendation for investors to strategically select stocks based on performance certainty and market conditions [25]

Core Viewpoint - Kaiying Network is advancing the integration of AI technology and is focusing on four major business systems for future growth [3]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Kaiying Network achieved operating revenue of 4.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.75% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.583 billion yuan, up 23.7% year-on-year, with a gross margin stable at over 83% and a net profit margin increasing to 38.86% [3]. Business Development - The company's overseas revenue in the first half of the year was 202 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 59.57% [3]. - Popular games such as "Monster League," "MU Immortal," and "Blood of Jianghu: Return" topped local app store free charts upon release in markets like South Korea, Europe, and the United States [3]. - The 996 Box platform has nearly 500,000 daily active users, driving rapid expansion of the platform's business scale [3]. Technological Innovation - Kaiying Network has integrated its self-developed "Xingyi" and "Zhimeng" large models into its R&D pipeline, significantly enhancing industrial efficiency and fostering the SOON platform to transform game production methods [3]. - The company has made substantial progress in AI emotional companionship applications, such as EVE, and the AI toy brand "Warm Star Valley Dream Journey" [3][5]. Future Strategy - The year 2026 is identified as a key year for enhancing the four major business systems, focusing on R&D, publishing, investment + IP, and user platforms [3]. - The 996 Legend Box aims to create a high-activity vertical community by addressing the challenges of numerous game versions and private servers, enhancing player experience through community interaction and content aggregation [4]. AI Toy Development - The "Warm Star Valley Dream Journey" brand targets emotional companionship needs for individuals aged 12-35, featuring AI toys with capabilities like voice recognition and interactive gameplay [5]. - The brand introduces the concept of "digital life forms," with products set to launch on December 8, 2025 [5]. Market Performance - On November 28, 2023, Kaiying Network's stock closed at 22.32 yuan, with a rise of 1.59%, bringing the total market capitalization to 47.685 billion yuan [6].

Core Insights - The company has a strong focus on its core gaming business, aiming to create high-quality games that meet market demands, supported by a four-part business system of R&D, publishing, investment, and IP/user platforms [2][3] - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, establishing a strategy for international publishing and aiming for revenue growth from foreign markets over the next three years [2][3] - The company has signed licensing agreements for its subsidiary to develop and promote games based on popular IPs, indicating a strategic move to enhance its product offerings and market presence [3][4] Fund Performance - As of November 26, 2025, the top-performing fund of the company, "泉果旭源三年持有期混合A," achieved a return of 35.13% over the past year [2] - The company manages assets totaling 23.787 billion yuan across six funds, with five fund managers [1][2] Share Buyback and Ownership - The company repurchased 8.9528 million shares from September 1 to September 3, 2025, representing 0.42% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately 200 million yuan [6] - The actual controller of the company has committed to not reducing their shareholding for five years and plans to use dividends to increase their stake in the company [7][8] Shareholder Trends - As of November 20, 2025, the total number of shareholders is 82,977, showing a general trend of increase in shareholder numbers [9] Product Development - The company is developing "EVE," a 3D AI companion application, which is set to launch in Q1 2026, focusing on creating deep emotional connections with users [10][11] - The company is also launching an AI toy brand, "暖星谷梦游记," with pre-sales starting on December 8, 2025, targeting emotional companionship for the 12-35 age group [12][13] Financial Reporting - The company holds shares in "世纪华通," classified as financial assets measured at fair value, with changes recorded in other comprehensive income, indicating a strategic investment approach [14]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Xinda Securities highlights that Kaiying Network's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.583 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.70% [1]. Financial Performance - In Q3, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 633 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 34.51% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 46.66% [1]. Business Development - The growth of the "Legend Box" is notable, emphasizing the value of the company. The company continues to optimize the operation of the Legend ecosystem through traffic sharing, content co-creation, and ecological construction to further explore the value potential of the Legend IP [1]. AI Initiatives - In the AI sector, the company has invested in Natural Selection's "EVE," the world's first 3D AI companion application, which has begun internal testing [1]. - The company launched an AI full-process development platform called "SOON" specifically designed for the gaming industry in July [1]. - A new AI healing toy brand, "Warm Star Valley Dream Journey," featuring a model of "smart dolls + virtual games," is set to release its first product during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [1]. Future Outlook - The company's product reserves are expected to support future performance growth, with the Legend Box further tapping into the value of the Legend IP and ongoing investments in AI [1]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.075 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.75%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.583 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 23.70% [1] - The "Legend Box" product line showed significant growth, achieving approximately 570 million yuan in revenue in Q3 2025, driven by brand zone entry services [4] - The company has a rich pipeline of new products and is diversifying into AI applications, which are expected to drive future revenue growth [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.08% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.19% [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2025 was 633 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.51% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 46.66% [3] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2025 is projected to be around 82.0% [7] - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is 2.207 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 35.5% [6][7] Product and Market Development - The company has launched several new games in Q3 2025, including "Hot Blood Jianghu: Return" and "Ragnarok: The Promised Adventure," with more titles in the pipeline [5] - The "Legend Box" platform integrates various entertainment forms, enhancing user engagement and monetization opportunities [4] - The company is actively investing in AI technologies, including a 3D AI companion application and an AI development platform tailored for the gaming industry [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance in the mobile gaming sector and information services [4]. Core Views - The company's contract liabilities have significantly increased, providing a solid foundation for future growth. As of the first three quarters, contract liabilities amounted to approximately 351 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.78%, primarily due to the rise in deferred revenue [2]. - The company has successfully obtained licenses for three games and launched multiple titles, including "荒野守则," "熊猫大作战," and "黑猫警长：守护," which have performed well in various markets [2]. - Progress in the company's gaming box initiative is promising, with over 25 high-quality games entering the platform, and plans to introduce over 100 more, enhancing the content ecosystem [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters, the company reported a revenue of 4.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.583 billion yuan, up 23.7% [1]. - The third quarter alone saw revenues of 1.497 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.08% year-on-year growth, with net profit reaching 633 million yuan, a 34.51% increase [1]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be approximately 1.967 billion yuan, 2.362 billion yuan, and 2.725 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25.58, 21.30, and 18.46 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 1.497 billion (up 9.08% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 633 million (up 34.51% year-on-year) [2][4]. - The launch of new games such as "热血江湖：归来" contributed to revenue growth, with the "传奇盒子" generating approximately 570 million in revenue [2][4]. - The company's profitability improved due to stable expenses and optimized business structure, with gross margin at 84.2% and net profit margin at 42.3% for Q3 [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 1.497 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 9.08% and a net profit of 633 million, reflecting a 34.51% increase [2][4]. - The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit of 582 million, up 21.11% year-on-year [2][4]. - The revenue from "传奇盒子" was approximately 570 million, with brand zone service income contributing about 245 million [6]. Business Growth Drivers - The launch of new games, including "热血江湖：归来" and "SEVEN: GLORY ROAD," contributed to the revenue increase, with overseas revenue reaching 126 million, accounting for 8.4% of total revenue [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing growth of the "传奇盒子" platform and the release of new games, which will drive performance [6]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the performance of the "传奇盒子" and the upcoming new games, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [6]. - The AI development initiatives are anticipated to enhance valuation flexibility, with the AI gaming development platform "SOON" expected to commercialize in 2026 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in institutional research activity among listed companies during the third quarter earnings report period, indicating a strong interest from investors in understanding company performance and industry outlooks [2][3]. Group 1: Institutional Research Activity - A total of 418 listed companies disclosed institutional investor research records as of October 31, with 35 companies receiving over 100 institutional visits [3]. - Notable companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Jinpan Technology, and Lens Technology received over 200 institutional visits, with inquiries focused on quarterly performance, business progress, and industry outlook [3]. Group 2: Company Performance Highlights - Zhaoyi Innovation reported a third-quarter revenue of 2.681 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.40%, and a net profit of 508 million yuan, up 61.13% [5]. - Jinpan Technology achieved third-quarter revenue of 2.040 billion yuan, an increase of 8.38%, and a net profit of 221 million yuan, up 21.71% [8]. - Lens Technology's third-quarter revenue reached 20.702 billion yuan, a growth of 19.25%, with a net profit of 1.700 billion yuan, increasing by 12.62% [10]. - Kaiying Network reported third-quarter revenue of 1.497 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.08%, and a net profit of 633 million yuan, up 34.51% [13]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Insights - Zhaoyi Innovation noted a price increase trend for NOR Flash products, with expectations for overall price stability and gradual increases in 2024 due to supply constraints [5][6]. - Jinpan Technology is expanding its business in the AI Data Center (AIDC) sector, reporting a significant revenue increase of 337.47% in this area for the first three quarters of 2025 [8]. - Lens Technology is actively developing its robotics business, with expectations of significant revenue contributions from humanoid robots and quadruped robots in the near future [10][11].