来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯 12月17日，ETF开盘涨跌不一，碳中和ETF龙头(560550)涨4.55%，创业板50ETF嘉 实(159373)涨1.86%，农业50ETF(159827)涨1.48%，巴西ETF(159100)跌3.54%，巴西ETF(520870)跌 3.38%，电信ETF基金(560690)跌2.23%。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯 12月17日，ETF开盘涨跌不一，碳中和ETF龙头(560550)涨4.55%，创业板50ETF嘉 实(159373)涨1.86%，农业50ETF(159827)涨1.48%，巴西ETF(159100)跌3.54%，巴西ETF(520870)跌 3.38%，电信ETF基金(560690)跌2.23%。 ...

综合东方证券、中泰证券（600918）观点：2026年是农业拐点向上的年份，养殖、种植将依次发力。 2026年上半年养殖业有望率先触底。由于产能基数过高、效率提升、前仆后继的"抄底"以及粮食价格低 迷等因素，养殖业的反转必将是极为复杂（及漫长的）。中央层面提出的《提振消费专项行动方案》， 以及养殖业反内卷政策，是当下行业托底的关键。 农业50ETF（516810.SH）被动跟踪中证农业主题指数（000949.CSI），相比其他养殖、粮食类指数， 中证农业主题指数更均衡、全面，指数覆盖养殖业（39.98%）、农化制品（18.99%）、饲料 （12.19%）、种植业（8.63%），前十大权重股包括牧原股份、温氏股份（300498）、藏格矿业 （000408）、盐湖股份（000792）、海大集团（002311）、亚钾国际（000893）、新希望、梅花生物 （600873）、扬农化工（600486）、大北农（002385）。当前农业指数整体估值（PE-TTM）19.56倍， 位于近十年12.05%区域，处于极度低估区间，性价比较为突出。 年初至今，罗牛山（000735）涨超50%，牧原股份（002714）涨超30%， ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower, with strength in the non-ferrous and communication sectors, while sub-sectors like lithium mining and liquid-cooled servers led the gains [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced that starting from December 17, 2025, anti-dumping duties will be imposed on imported pork and pork by-products from the EU, citing substantial damage to the domestic industry and a causal relationship between dumping and substantial damage [1] - The pig farming sector is being closely monitored by multiple institutions as a potential reversal sector, driven by policy guidance and market losses leading to accelerated capacity reduction, setting the stage for a price rebound in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Agricultural 50 ETF passively tracks the CSI Agricultural Theme Index, which is more balanced and comprehensive compared to other livestock and grain indices, covering 39.98% in livestock, 18.99% in agrochemicals, 12.19% in feed, and 8.63% in planting [2] - The overall valuation of the agricultural index (PE-TTM) is 19.56 times, positioned in the extremely undervalued range at the 12.05% level over the past decade, indicating strong cost-effectiveness [2] - According to insights from Dongfang Securities and Zhongtai Securities, 2026 is expected to be an upward turning point for agriculture, with livestock and planting sectors set to gain momentum sequentially, and the livestock sector likely to hit bottom in the first half of 2026 [2]

3)内需方向：优化结构是核心，推动消费端释放潜力，投资端止跌回稳； 4)科技方向：强调财政优势区域的集群效应，"人工智能+"依旧是科技主线； 5)"内卷式"竞争：并入改革章节意味着"反内卷"和"国企改革"会是2026年的政策重点； 6)化解风险章节：从"防范"转向"积极化解"，打开地产和化债的政策空间。 林荣雄重点指出，重要会议提到"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"，结合 央行三季度货政例会提及的"促进经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平"，这是一个极具信号意义的变化。 可以看出，2026年货币政策的锚就是增长和通胀，决策层对于稳增长和推动通胀回升的诉求较为明确。 12月11日，重要会议通稿发布后，多家研究机构参照以往会议，以及"十五五"，进行了解读。 国投证券首席策略分析师林荣雄认为，此次重要会议有六大值得关注的信号： 1)财政政策：从"提赤字、加力度"转向"稳赤字、重落实"； 2)货币政策：把"经济增长"和"物价回升"纳入核心KPI； 中金公司（601995）也指出，"十五五"明确提出"居民消费率明显提高，内需拉动经济增长主动力作用 持续增强"是"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标之一， ...

Core Insights - The recent "anti-involution" policies in China aim to combat unhealthy competition and promote high-quality economic development through a series of measures targeting ten key industries [1][3][4] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released new growth plans for ten major industries, which collectively account for approximately 70% of the industrial economy [1] - These plans set clear quantitative growth targets, such as an annual average growth of 5% in the petrochemical and non-ferrous metal industries from 2025 to 2026 [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued guidelines to address chaotic pricing competition while maintaining fair market conditions [1][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In August, profits of industrial enterprises showed a significant turnaround, increasing by 20.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since December 2023 [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained stable month-on-month in August, ending an eight-month decline, with a narrowing year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [3] - Profit growth was particularly noted in upstream industries such as coal, steel, and non-ferrous metallurgy, indicating a positive initial response to the "anti-involution" policies [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs that align with the "anti-involution" policies, which span both traditional and emerging industries [4][5] - Specific sectors highlighted for investment include non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, steel, cement, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic industries, each with supportive policy measures and improving fundamentals [5] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to enhance gross margins and capacity utilization, thereby improving the long-term investment value of related sectors [5]

Core Insights - Recent policies in China aim to combat "involution" and promote high-quality economic development through various measures targeting ten key industries [1][3][7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released new growth plans for ten major industries, which collectively account for approximately 70% of the industrial economy [1][3] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have issued guidelines to address chaotic pricing competition, emphasizing fair market practices [1][3] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The ten industries targeted for growth include steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, automotive, electrical equipment, light industry, and electronic information manufacturing [1] - Each industry has been assigned specific quantitative growth targets, such as a 5% annual increase in value added for the petrochemical and non-ferrous metals sectors from 2025 to 2026 [1][3] - The recent announcement of measures to regulate pricing competition indicates a systematic approach to governance, moving from recognition to execution at both central and local levels [1][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In August, profits of industrial enterprises showed a significant turnaround, increasing by 20.4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth rate since December 2023 [3][4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained stable in August, ending an eight-month decline, with a narrowing year-on-year drop of 0.7 percentage points [3][4] - Profit growth was particularly noted in upstream industries such as coal, steel, non-metallic minerals, and chemicals, suggesting a positive impact from the "involution" policies [3][4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs that align with the sectors benefiting from the "involution" policies, as these can provide efficient exposure to the relevant industries [5][6] - Specific ETFs are highlighted for sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, coal, and new energy vehicles, reflecting the anticipated benefits from the policy measures [6][7] - The ongoing "involution" policies are expected to enhance gross margins and capacity utilization, thereby improving the long-term investment value of related sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market on August 26 showed mixed performance, with agricultural ETFs leading gains while others, particularly in technology and rare earth sectors, experienced declines [2] Group 1: ETF Performance - Agricultural 50 ETF (516810) led the gains with an increase of 3.59% [2] - E Fund Agricultural ETF (562900) rose by 3.55% [2] - Agricultural ETF (159825) increased by 3.53% [2] - Zhongzheng A500 Enhanced ETF (561090) was the biggest loser, declining by 5.0% [2] - Sci-Tech Chip ETF Index (588920) fell by 3.32% [2] - Rare Earth ETF E Fund (159715) decreased by 2.96% [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with mixed performance across the three major indices, where digital currency stocks surged collectively, oil and gas stocks showed active performance, and bank stocks strengthened against the trend [1] - High-priced stocks underwent collective adjustments, while ETFs related to chemicals and agriculture rose nearly 2% [1] ETF Performance - Chemical industry ETF rose by 1.99% to 0.82 [2] - Agricultural 50 ETF increased by 1.78% to 0.799 [2] - Other notable ETFs include the Petrochemical ETF at 1.74% and the Agricultural ETF at 1.69% [2] Livestock Industry Insights - Most listed livestock companies are currently at historical low market values per head, with significant potential for growth towards historical averages, indicating long-term investment value [3] - The demand for high-end magnetic materials is rapidly increasing due to policies promoting "carbon neutrality," alongside a recovery in traditional manufacturing and the acceleration of humanoid robots, which injects growth momentum into rare earth demand [5] Declining Sectors - New energy and rare earth-related ETFs experienced a decline of approximately 2% [3] - Specific ETFs such as the New Energy ETF and Rare Earth ETFs saw decreases of 2.08% and 1.97% respectively [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.21% at 3451.69 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 0.32% and 0.58% respectively, with a half-day trading volume of 981.32 billion yuan [1] - The pig price has been declining since Q2 2024, with an increase in both breeding sows and newborn piglets, leading to a potential negative impact on CPI if prices continue to drop, prompting government regulatory concerns [1] - According to Zhongtai Securities, the current market conditions suggest that the stock price of the pig sector is at a bottom level, with low risks of further decline, indicating that any minor positive news could trigger significant price increases [1] Group 2 - Huayuan Securities highlighted that agriculture, as a fundamental sector, is experiencing a rise in investment value due to its unique attributes such as "anti-cyclical asset premium" and "historically low valuations" [2] - The investment approach in the pig sector is shifting from a "cyclical thinking" to a focus on "quality and price," with leading companies expected to have strong profit certainty by 2025 [2] - The Agricultural 50 ETF (516810) closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Theme Index, covering various segments including breeding, agricultural chemicals, and feed, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for over 60% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market shows mixed performance, with leading ETFs experiencing significant gains while others face declines [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Double Innovation Leading ETF (159603) leads with a gain of 19.98% [1] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF (516650) increases by 2.89% [1] - The Battery Leading ETF (159767) rises by 2.45% [1] - The Agricultural 50 ETF (516810) is the biggest loser, down by 2.89% [1] - The Shanghai 50 ETF Index Fund (510190) declines by 2.16% [1] - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF (159518) falls by 0.88% [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The strategy suggests that investors should consider buying index ETFs to capitalize on market rebounds [1]