Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically [5][12]. - The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation, with a fluctuation range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100 [12][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - Trend judgment: Large - range oscillations, with an overall upward - biased trend in August. The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically [5]. - Strategy suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels in the mid - term [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The range of Shanghai Aluminum 2509 in the coming week was expected to be 20,200 - 20,900. Appropriate long positions could be established near the lower end of the range [7]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100. Appropriate long positions could be established near the lower end of the range [8]. - Hedging suggestion for spot enterprises: Consider allocating an appropriate amount of virtual futures inventory at low prices [9]. Overall Viewpoint Bauxite Market - Starting from August, the import of bauxite from Guinea to China is expected to decrease. Overall, the import volume of domestic bauxite in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half, and there is a risk that the monthly balance of bauxite may turn into a deficit. However, considering that some enterprises have stocked up in advance to cope with the rainy season, the supply - demand contradiction of bauxite is not expected to be significant in the short term. The price of bauxite in the third quarter is expected to remain stable. If the shipment volume remains low and domestic bauxite inventory continues to decline, the contradiction will gradually become prominent, and the bauxite price may turn upward in the fourth quarter [10]. Alumina Market - As of July 18, the built - in production capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was about 111.75 million tons, the operating capacity was about 92.2 million tons, and the operating rate was about 83.61%, up from about 83.28% last week, showing an overall upward trend since the end of May. There is a new production capacity project in Guangtou Beihai in Q3, and the operating capacity of alumina still has the potential to refresh the historical peak in the first half of the year. However, there are many factors disturbing the ore supply from Guinea in the second half of the year [10]. Production of Electrolytic Aluminum - According to Aladdin, the current operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 44.2 million tons, and the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Q3 is at the lowest level of the year [10]. Import and Export - The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is currently about 1,200 yuan/ton, down from about 1,350 yuan/ton last week. Since February 2025, China's aluminum exports have been increasing. Although the growth rate has declined due to tariff disturbances since April, overall, exports remain resilient [10]. Demand - Aluminum profiles: The weekly operating rate of the domestic aluminum profile industry increased by 1 percentage point to 50.5% this week, mainly due to the increase in orders for automotive profiles from some enterprises, while the operating rate of building profiles remained weak [11]. - Aluminum plates, strips, and foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 63.2%. In mid - to late July, the probability of an increase in the operating rate driven by improved demand is extremely low. During the transition period between the off - season and peak season in August, if the aluminum price remains relatively stable, downstream customers' stocking actions for the peak season may bring about a wave of demand recovery. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 69.6%. The overall demand in the aluminum foil market continued to be weak this week. As it is the traditional consumption off - season from July to August, there is no hope for a recovery in terminal demand, and the operating rate of the aluminum foil industry is expected to continue to decline in the short term [11]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% this week, showing signs of bottoming out and recovery. In the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the supervision of power grid construction is still urgent. Coupled with the relatively abundant backlog of orders from enterprises, there is still a window period for concentrated deliveries in the second half of the year, which will drive the operating rate of aluminum cables and aluminum consumption after August [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 54.0%. The performance in mid - July was better than the previous weak and stable situation, maintaining a game pattern of "dominated by molten aluminum allocation and demand suppressed by aluminum prices". The exports of primary aluminum alloys and aluminum wheels may enter a deep adjustment period in the second half of the year, and a substantial recovery will depend on clear policies and the alleviation of cost pressures. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 53.4% this week, mainly due to the shortage of raw materials and the reduction in demand. Constrained by both raw materials and orders, the operating rate of the industry is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [11]. Inventory - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 490,000 tons, an increase of about 5% compared with the week before last and a decrease of about 39% compared with the same period last year. Recently, the purchasing and stocking sentiment of downstream customers has improved, and the demand in the aluminum cable sector still has some support during the off - season. The sustainability of the inventory build - up of aluminum ingots still needs to be observed, but the situation of inventory remaining at a historical low level in the same period is difficult to change for the time being. The inventory of aluminum rods is 153,200 tons, a decrease of about 2% compared with last week and an increase of about 10% compared with the same period last year. Although the production cuts by aluminum rod manufacturers have reduced the arrival pressure on the supply side, the current replenishment of rigid demand is mainly a short - term boost, and the off - season theme of downstream industries has not changed. Therefore, from a long - term perspective, the inventory of aluminum rods will still maintain an upward trend, and the general trend has not changed significantly. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July, after a continuous slight decline since May 2024, but it is still at a low level since 1990 [11]. Alumina Profit - The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is currently about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 550 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. Electrolytic Aluminum Profit - The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is currently about 17,500 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton, down from 3,300 yuan/ton last week. The profit is at a relatively high level [12]. Market Expectation - Policy expectations continue to ferment, and social inventory is at a low level in recent years; overseas tariff negotiations have been postponed, and export orders have recovered in the short term. However, the marginal demand during the off - season is weakening, and the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises is under pressure; the expectation of the Fed's interest rate decision is disturbing, and the recent rebound of the US dollar index has suppressed metal prices. The aluminum price is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation, with a fluctuation range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton [12]. Personal View - The new production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the third quarter is at the lowest level of the year. August is the window period for the transition between the off - season and peak season of downstream industries. With the temporary easing of the China - US tariff war, exports remain resilient. Additionally, with the implementation of domestic anti - involution and stable - growth policies, the supply and demand situation in August can be viewed optimistically. Looking forward to the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,500 - 21,100 [12]. Key Concerns - Whether the inventory of LME and domestic electrolytic aluminum will increase more than expected. - Whether the import window for aluminum ingots will open [12]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products and raw materials have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of bauxite from Guinea remained stable at 73 US dollars/dry ton, while the price of动力煤 (Q5500平仓价) at Jingtang Port increased by 1.73% week - on - week [13]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of various aluminum - related products and raw materials has also changed. For example, the port inventory of bauxite increased slightly this week, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 7.59% week - on - week [14]. Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of the domestic aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8% this week, driven by the slight increase in the weekly operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum cables. Overall, the weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to be under pressure next week [22][23]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is still in a relatively strong pattern. The adjustment of Shanghai Aluminum at the beginning of last week was mainly concentrated in the near - end, reflecting the market's cautious attitude towards high prices during the off - season. However, the attitude of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology towards the high - quality development of the copper and aluminum industries near the weekend may further open the prelude to Supply - side 2.0, and it should be treated as a relatively strong situation [27]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is currently about - 1,330 yuan/ton, down from - 1,260 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may have a drag on the electrolytic aluminum price [33][34]. Market Capital Situation - LME aluminum: The net long position has been increasing slightly in the past 10 weeks. Since May, the short - selling camp has been reducing positions overall, and the long - buying camp has been increasing positions slightly since early June. The market is expected to be dominated by a relatively strong oscillation recently [35]. - SHFE electrolytic aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable this week. Since early July, both the long - buying and short - selling camps have slightly reduced positions to cope. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation has continued to decrease slightly. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has increased slightly. From the performance of the main funds, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [38].

Industry Overview - The production of cryolite in China is steadily increasing from 2018 to 2024, with production and demand expected to reach 188,000 tons and 168,000 tons respectively in 2024, despite periodic supply constraints due to bauxite supply fluctuations and environmental policies [1][12]. - Cryolite is essential in the aluminum electrolysis industry, serving as a flux and enhancing the efficiency of alumina dissolution and ion migration [2]. Policy Background - China's cryolite industry policies are focused on technological innovation driven by environmental constraints, resource security, and optimizing supply structure through capacity regulation [4][5]. - The government promotes clean production technologies and circular economy models, aiming to reduce environmental burdens and enhance domestic supply capabilities [5]. Industry Chain - The cryolite industry chain includes upstream mining of bauxite and other minerals, midstream cryolite manufacturing through various production methods, and downstream applications in aluminum electrolysis, new energy, and other sectors [7][8]. Current Market Dynamics - The increasing dependence on imported bauxite and high domestic bauxite prices exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in the cryolite market, leading to rising production costs for alumina and increased demand for cost-effective cryolite solutions [10][12]. - The market is characterized by cautious supply expansion and rigid demand growth, with production costs rising due to upstream pressures [12]. Market Size and Trends - The cryolite market is projected to contract slightly in 2024, with a market size of 1.276 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.36% from 2023, driven by falling raw material prices and slower demand growth in the aluminum sector [13]. - Despite production and export growth, companies face pressure on profit margins due to cost transmission delays and market bargaining power disparities [13]. Export and Import Dynamics - China's cryolite trade has shifted from reliance on imports to becoming a net exporter, with imports declining and exports increasing due to domestic capacity upgrades and rising international demand for eco-friendly cryolite [16]. - In 2024, China's cryolite import and export volumes are expected to be 1,700 tons and 21,400 tons respectively, with a focus on high-purity and customized products [16]. Competitive Landscape - The cryolite industry is regionally concentrated, with major clusters in Jiaozuo, Henan, and Zibo, Shandong, where leading companies leverage their full supply chain advantages and scale [18][19]. - Companies are focusing on high molecular ratio cryolite and other innovative products to build technological barriers and enhance competitive positioning [20]. Future Development Trends - The cryolite industry is expected to transition towards high value-added and functional products, with a focus on developing high molecular ratio cryolite and new composite materials [20]. - The industry is integrating into global carbon neutrality efforts, with companies adopting cleaner production methods and circular economy practices to reduce carbon footprints [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate in a large range of 19,000 - 21,000. Next week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level, with an estimated range of 19,800 - 20,500. The market is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the expected weakening of demand reduces the upward momentum of aluminum prices. Although the positive impact of the easing of Sino - US trade frictions still exists, the boosting effect of macro - sentiment may gradually weaken. The supply of electrolytic aluminum has reached its upper limit, and the focus should be on the demand side. Overall, the aluminum market is expected to be in a large - range shock, with a relatively strong shock in late May [5][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: In mid - to late May, due to the alternation of peak and off - peak seasons, the end of PV rush installation, and the decline in export orders, the market still expects weakening demand, which reduces the upward momentum of aluminum prices. The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level next week, with an estimated range of 19,800 - 20,500 [5]. - **Mid - line Strategy**: Suggest to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the aluminum price would continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level, and the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract was temporarily seen in the range of 19,500 - 20,000. It was advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level, with an estimated range of 19,800 - 20,500. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading. For spot enterprises, it is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [8][9]. 3.3 Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: The cost of mines in Guinea varies greatly. If the CIF price of standard - grade ore in Guinea falls below $70 per dry ton and remains at this level for some time, some mines may choose to reduce production. Currently, the supply of imported ore is relatively loose, and low - cost mines have a certain ability to resist price declines. There may be a further decline in the price of imported ore, but it is expected to gradually bottom out below $70 per dry ton. If there are policy disturbances, there may be a rebound [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of mid - May, the national alumina production capacity was 110.82 million tons (the increase in production capacity mainly came from Hebei), the operating capacity was 86.75 million tons, a decrease of 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and the operating rate was 78.2%. Recently, the supply side of alumina has changed frequently, the scale of production reduction has expanded, and the output has decreased periodically. Coupled with the relatively strong purchasing and replenishment意愿 of some downstream aluminum plants, the demand has increased slightly, which alleviates the oversupply situation and supports the price increase [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of the week of May 15, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased steadily to 843,000 tons. The profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is at a high level, and the production in Sichuan Province continues to rise. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the ceiling of 45 million tons, the resumption of production in Yunnan, Sichuan and other places is nearly completed, and the new production capacity is difficult to release due to environmental protection policies and energy - consumption dual - control. Overseas markets are restricted by high energy costs. Although the production is increasing, the overall capacity utilization rate is already high, and the room for further production increase this year is limited. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [10]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,600 yuan/ton, compared with about 1,500 yuan/ton last week. The phased easing of Sino - US tariff confrontation, but its boosting effect on exports remains to be seen [10]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 56.5% this week. Benefiting from the support of real - estate policies, the policy benefits are gradually transmitted to the industry, but the new industrial orders are still weak [12]. - **Aluminum Plates, Strips and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 67.2%. The cancellation of reciprocal tariffs has limited impact on the export of aluminum plates and strips. The recovery of terminal demand has been gradually transmitted to the upstream aluminum processing industry, providing certain support for the operation of the aluminum plate and strip sector. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 71.6%. The cancellation of Sino - US trade reciprocal tariffs may lead to a short - term rebound in exports in the household appliances and electronics sectors, driving the export - related operation of domestic aluminum foil enterprises [12]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum cable enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 65.2% this week. Considering the enterprise's production schedule and order prospects, the industry operating rate is expected to remain stable [12]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of leading domestic primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 54.6% this week. Enterprises reported that orders and operating conditions were slightly weaker than those in early May. The industry operating rate may still maintain a stable and weak trend next week. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 55.0%. The current industry cost pressure is still prominent. The continuous increase in the price of primary aluminum drives up the price of scrap aluminum, while the increase in the price of alloy ingot products is limited, resulting in a further expansion of the theoretical loss of the industry [12]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 580,000 tons, a decrease of about 6% compared with last week and about 22% lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level since 2017. The easing of Sino - US tariffs has led to a significant increase in the price of European routes recently. There may be a situation of rush - exporting during the window period of tariff confrontation. May and June may not be the off - peak season. The inventory of aluminum rods is 129,500 tons, a decrease of about 14% compared with last week and about 28% lower than the same period last year. The inventory - reduction speed has accelerated again, and it is at the mid - axis level since 2016. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been continuously declining slightly since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [12][17]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina Profit**: The current average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 450 yuan/ton, compared with about 300 yuan/ton last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,900 yuan/ton, compared with a profit of 2,500 yuan/ton last week. The profit is at a relatively high level [13]. - **Market Expectation**: The positive impact of the easing of Sino - US trade frictions still exists, but the boosting effect of macro - sentiment may gradually weaken over time. It is necessary to pay attention to whether there are further policies to support the aluminum price. Fundamentally, more attention should be paid to the demand side. The supply of electrolytic aluminum has reached its upper limit, and the negative impact is limited. On the demand side, the downstream demand is gradually entering the off - peak season, and the overall demand growth momentum is insufficient. However, due to the delivery of power - transmission and transformation orders and the start of the second - batch tender in the aluminum cable industry, the demand is still guaranteed in the short term, and the回调 space is limited. Therefore, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate around the 20,000 mark next week to accumulate energy for an upward attack [13]. - **Key Concerns**: - Whether the mining process of Guinea mines will have a major impact on imported ores after June. - Whether there will be a rush - exporting situation during the window period of the easing of Sino - US tariff confrontation [13]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, the bauxite price changed from falling to stable. In the market situation of oversupply, sellers are in a passive position. However, the price of $70 per dry ton is approaching the cost price of some high - cost mines, and mines have the intention to support the price. Recently, the price of thermal coal has been running weakly. Due to high inventory and low demand in the off - peak season, most traders are still pessimistic about the subsequent price trend. The price of alumina has risen significantly. The previous loss - induced production reduction has indeed been reflected in the supply - demand level. At the same time, it is rumored that Guinea has tightened mining licenses, and the alumina price was炒作 again near the weekend. The Sino - US tariff easing measures are being gradually implemented, and with the rebound of the alumina end, the electrolytic aluminum price has reached the 20,000 - yuan mark; the performance of alloys is relatively weak, and the weak actual orders and the expected increase in scrap supply suppress the disk [14][15]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - This week, the domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for the fifth consecutive week, mainly due to the increase in imported ore arrivals and the cautious procurement of domestic alumina plants. However, the production rate of alumina is rising rapidly. Considering the shipping rhythm of Guinea, the supply of aluminum ore may turn tight again after June and July. The alumina inventory continues to decline slightly. The overseas LME aluminum inventory continues to decline slightly. Since the end of May 2024, it has been continuously declining slightly. The room for production increase of overseas electrolytic aluminum plants this year is limited. With the easing of Sino - US - EU tariffs, the inventory may continue to decline [16][17]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit of Key Links in the Domestic Aluminum Industry**: This week, the average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is expected to be about 2,580 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 450 yuan/ton, compared with a profit of about 300 yuan/ton last week; the production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton, compared with about 17,100 yuan/ton last week, and the theoretical profit is about 2,900 yuan/ton (compared with 2,500 yuan/ton last week); the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,600 yuan/ton, compared with a loss of about 1,500 yuan/ton last week [19]. - **Operating Rate of Downstream Processing Enterprises**: This week, the operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.6%, showing a differentiated pattern. In the off - peak season, the operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [21][22]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is slightly bullish. Under the situation of low inventory and the possibility of another rush - exporting in China, the spot price provides certain upward support for the futures price [28]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a premium of $5.79 per ton (compared with a discount of $9.4 per ton last week). Since mid - to late May 2024, the LME inventory has been continuously declining slightly. Currently, the LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level since 1990. With the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the market focus has returned to the low inventory. The spot quotation of A00 aluminum ingots is at a premium of 80 yuan/ton, compared with a discount of 0 yuan/ton last week. As Sino - US gradually implement the measures to ease tariffs and the domestic social inventory is relatively low, the phenomenon of spot traders adding prices to pick up goods has increased. This week, the spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,790 yuan/ton, compared with - 3,190 yuan/ton last week. Currently, the spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a low level in recent years, which provides obvious support for the electrolytic aluminum price [31][36][37]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum Variety Fund Trend**: In the past two weeks, the net long position has continued to rise slightly. After the short - sellers significantly increased their positions in mid - March, they have slightly reduced their positions, but the long - sellers have continued to reduce their positions since mid - March. The short - term market may continue a narrow - range rebound [39]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Variety Fund Trend**: This week, the net long position remained stable, and both the long and short sides mainly reduced their positions slightly. The net long position of funds with a financial speculation background continued to remain stable and is still at a high level since the end of 2024. The net short position of funds with a background of mid - and downstream enterprises has slightly narrowed. From the performance of the current main funds, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [42].