朝闻国盛 杰克逊霍尔：不止放鸽，还有政策框架修订 今日概览 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 08 25 年 月 日 【宏观】高频半月观—8 月以来出口表现仍强——20250824 【宏观】杰克逊霍尔：不止放鸽，还有政策框架修订——20250823 重磅研报 【固定收益】资金宽松，杠杆下降——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250823 【银行】2025上半年各地信贷增速及贷款利率有何变化？——20250824 【电子】消费电子进入新品发布旺季，板块估值重塑可期——20250824 【建筑】联检科技（301115.SZ）-并购拓疆步入收获期，检测龙头迎新 增长拐点——20250824 【食品饮料】安琪酵母（600298.SH）-以史为鉴，大周期起点 —— 20250824 【金融工程】食品饮料终于迎来日线级别上涨——20250824 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值分数继续下行——20250823 【固定收益】债对股的敏感性或下降——20250824 【固定收益】化债见成果——各地 2025 年 H1 经济财政债务盘点—— 20250823 【电力设备】威力传动（300904. ...

Group 1: Silver Economy Growth Potential - The silver economy in China is estimated to reach approximately 70 trillion yuan (6% of GDP) by 2023 and is projected to grow to 190 trillion yuan (10% of GDP) by 2035[1] - The population aged 65 and above in China is around 220 million (15.6% of the total population) in 2023, with predictions of exceeding 380 million (30.9% of the total population) by 2050[1] - Improvements in healthcare and living standards are expected to further expand the silver economy's scale[1] Group 2: Consumption Capacity of the Elderly - The elderly population has a relatively high net asset level, benefiting from early home purchases and low debt ratios, with average annual housing price growth of about 8% from 2000 to 2020[3] - The average household size in China decreased from 3.1 people in 2010 to 2.6 people in 2020, indicating a trend towards smaller families and increased economic independence for the elderly[3] - By 2020, 55.7% of elderly individuals lived alone or with a spouse, and the reliance on family support decreased from 40.7% in 2010 to 32.7%[3] Group 3: Policy Support for Silver Economy - Since 2024, policies have been introduced to support the silver economy, focusing on supply-side adaptations and demand-side subsidies for elderly care services[4] - The government aims to enhance the supply of elderly care services and improve the infrastructure for elderly-friendly living environments[4] - There is a significant potential for expansion in elderly care facilities and services, as many urban homes lack elevators and other necessary amenities[4]

从申请人类型来看，中小企业为31.7%（37925件），个人为19.7%（23554件），外商企业为 19.6%（23375件），大学及研究机构为19.1%（22806件）。申请专利最多的机构是三星电子，其次是 延世大学、高丽大学和Osstem Implant。 （原标题：韩过去十年医疗设备专利申请激增42%） 过去10年申请最多的医疗器械类型是测量心率、血压等各种生物信号的生物识别设备，共计17514 件（14.6%）。其次是手术治疗设备（14.0%）、医疗信息设备（13.7%）和医疗用品（11.9%）。申请 增长率最高的领域是医疗信息设备，年均增长率为21.9%。基于人工智能的非面对面医疗系统等与远程 医疗相关的医疗信息设备专利申请占比92.6%，该领域带动了整体申请数量的增长。 据韩联社8月6日报道，韩国知识产权局透露，去年医疗器械领域专利申请量为13282件，较2015年 的9336件增长了42%，这一数字大约是同期所有技术领域专利申请量12%增幅（222405件→248687件） 的3.5倍。 ...

Group 1 - Indonesia is confident in reaching a "bold" trade agreement with the United States, covering key minerals, energy, defense cooperation, and market access as the deadline for tariff increases approaches [1] - The Indonesian government commits to implementing near-zero tariffs on over 1,700 goods, which accounts for nearly 70% of total U.S. imports, including electronics, machinery, chemicals, medical supplies, steel, agriculture, and automotive sectors [1] - Indonesia aims to reduce the threatened 32% tariffs by the U.S. to below the 20% rate recently granted to Vietnam, as the U.S. is Indonesia's second-largest export market after China [1] Group 2 - The agreement includes measures such as granting U.S. buyers priority procurement rights, enhancing foreign ownership reviews in supply chains, and ensuring a secure and transparent supply of raw materials for U.S. critical industries, particularly in the nickel sector [5] - Indonesia plans to increase imports of U.S. natural gas and agricultural products to bolster its food and energy security, while also exploring commercial cooperation with U.S. companies in areas like aircraft procurement and maintenance services [5] - The Indonesian government intends to relax localization requirements, strengthen intellectual property protection, and open the national payment gateway to U.S. service providers, aiming to provide "fairer treatment" for American companies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the potential impacts of tariffs on inflation, highlighting that the CPI has been consistently below market expectations for three consecutive months [2][10]. Group 1: CPI Trends - In May, the CPI year-on-year increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, which was below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.5%. The core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, also below the expected 2.9% [2][20]. - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.1%, lower than both the expected and previous values of 0.2%. The core CPI also increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% [2][20]. - The proportion of CPI items with a year-on-year increase exceeding 2% rose from 37.7% to 40.8%, indicating a widening inflation breadth [20]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The article identifies several factors that may have suppressed the impact of tariffs on inflation, including the suspension and reduction of reciprocal tariffs and micro-level tax avoidance measures [3][10]. - The effective tariff rate in April was only 7.07%, significantly lower than estimates of 13-20% from overseas institutions, suggesting that various avoidance strategies have mitigated the tariff impact [3][10]. - The first sale rule allows importers to calculate tariffs based on the initial sale price, which may further reduce the effective tariff burden [11]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Consumer Behavior - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the futures market pricing in an average of 1.97 rate cuts for the year, up from 1.73 [2][29]. - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with one-year and five-year inflation expectations remaining at their highest levels in 45 and 25 years, respectively [5][13]. - Despite concerns about price increases, a significant majority of retail executives plan to raise prices, indicating ongoing pressure for price transmission in the market [6][15].

Core Viewpoint - Israel intercepted a humanitarian aid ship attempting to enter Gaza, which included prominent activist Greta Thunberg among its passengers, highlighting ongoing tensions regarding humanitarian efforts in the region [1] Group 1: Incident Details - The ship was forcibly intercepted in international waters, with crew members reportedly "kidnapped" and cargo, including food, baby formula, and medical supplies, confiscated [1] - Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that no ships would be allowed to breach the maritime blockade to prevent weapon transfers to Hamas [1] Group 2: Government Response - Katz instructed the Israel Defense Forces to take action against the "malicious" fleet attempting to reach Gaza, emphasizing a strong stance against the activists involved [1] - The Israeli Foreign Ministry confirmed that Thunberg is currently en route to Israel, stating she is safe and in good spirits [1]

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhendemedical (603301) closed at 20.83 yuan as of June 6, 2025, with no change from the previous week, and the market capitalization is 5.55 billion yuan [1] - The highest intraday price for Zhendemedical was 21.0 yuan on June 4, 2025, while the lowest was 20.7 yuan on June 5, 2025 [1] - Zhendemedical ranks 54th out of 126 in the medical device sector by market capitalization and 2681st out of 5148 in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - Zhendemedical announced an extension of its first employee stock ownership plan by six months, now set to expire on January 2, 2026 [1][3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.65 yuan per share, with the record date on June 10, 2025, and the payment date on June 11, 2025 [2][3] - The total cash dividend to be distributed amounts to approximately 173.11 million yuan (including tax), based on a total share count of 266,321,760 shares [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On May 23, 2025, Shangrong Medical (002551) reported a closing price of 3.71 yuan, reflecting a 1.37% increase, with a turnover rate of 11.9% and a trading volume of 727,200 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 270 million yuan [1]. Trading Information - On the same day, the fund flow for Shangrong Medical indicated a net inflow of 17.2367 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 9.9439 million yuan and speculative funds saw a net outflow of 7.2928 million yuan [2][3]. Company Announcements - The eighth temporary meeting of the eighth board of directors of Shenzhen Shangrong Medical Co., Ltd. was held on May 23, 2025, where it was approved to apply for a loan credit limit from Huishang Bank for its subsidiary Hefei Purde Medical Supplies Co., Ltd. The loan amount will not exceed 13 million yuan (or equivalent foreign currency) with a term of 12 months, intended for working capital loans, export accounts receivable pool financing, bank acceptance bill exposure, and letter of credit exposure [2][3]. - The loan will be secured by the subsidiary's own land and property, and the approval was within the board's authority, requiring no shareholder meeting for further approval, with a voting result of 9 in favor, 0 against, and 0 abstentions [2].

Group 1: IPO Market Recovery - The global IPO market is experiencing a resurgence as companies seek to complete transactions before summer and geopolitical tensions escalate again [1][5] - In April, the IPO financing amount reached its lowest level since the pandemic began in 2020 due to a series of suspended IPO projects following tariff announcements by former President Trump [1][5] - As tensions eased, the IPO market began to recover, with $43.6 billion raised in 2025 so far, slightly below the same period last year [1] Group 2: Notable IPOs and Companies - Chime Financial, valued at $25 billion in 2021, is expected to complete the largest IPO in the U.S. this year before the summer lull [2] - EToro Group, an Israeli trading and investment platform, successfully priced its IPO above the guidance range, with its stock soaring 29% on the first trading day [1][6] - Other companies like MNTN and Hinge Health have also initiated their IPO projects, indicating a broader recovery in the market [2][6] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Market sentiment has improved, with investors willing to participate in IPOs as long as companies can demonstrate resilience against tariffs and economic downturns [6][10] - The volatility index (VIX) dropped below 20 after the U.S. and China announced a 90-day pause on mutual tariffs, which is seen as a threshold for investment banks to proceed with IPOs [6] Group 4: Future Outlook and Trends - The upcoming summer holidays will compress the operational window for companies looking to go public, with many expected to push their IPOs to the fall [9] - The technology sector is anticipated to see increased IPO activity in the fall, with estimates of around 10 tech IPOs expected in the U.S. this year [9] - Despite some companies returning to the IPO queue, many remain cautious due to supply chain issues and inflation risks [10] Group 5: International IPO Activity - Chinese companies have successfully listed despite tariff uncertainties, with notable IPOs like the tea brand Bawang Chaji raising $473 million [10][11] - The Middle East continues to show strong IPO enthusiasm, with Flynas's $1.1 billion IPO fully subscribed shortly after launch [11] - The Indian market is also showing signs of recovery, with expectations for large stock issuances in the second half of the year [12]

Core Viewpoint - India and the UK have signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) after years of negotiations, marking a significant milestone for both countries in enhancing trade relations post-Brexit and amid India's economic growth ambitions [1] Group 1: Agreement Details - India will reduce import tariffs on UK whiskey and gin from 150% to 75%, eventually reaching 40% in 10 years [2] - The agreement will lead to a reduction of tariffs on 90% of UK imports, with 85% of goods achieving zero tariffs within 10 years, covering a wide range of products including food, medical supplies, and cosmetics [2] - The UK government anticipates that by 2040, the agreement will increase bilateral trade by £25.5 billion annually and boost the UK GDP by £4.8 billion each year [2] Group 2: Benefits for India - The FTA will facilitate Indian labor-intensive products like textiles and agricultural goods entering the UK market by eliminating tariffs, such as the 10% tariff on textiles [2] - Indian sectors such as technology services and pharmaceuticals will benefit from increased access to the UK market [2] - The agreement aims to attract more UK investments into India, particularly in clean energy and new technology development, while also simplifying visa processes for Indian students [2] Group 3: Concerns and Challenges - India remains cautious about sensitive issues like agricultural products, dairy, and data localization, fearing potential negative impacts on its agriculture and tech sectors [3] - Concerns persist regarding the UK's request to relax origin rules, which could allow EU products to enter India under preferential tariffs [3] - Ongoing negotiations will address unresolved issues related to service trade and visa facilitation, as India seeks to maintain policy autonomy in labor rights and environmental standards [3]