美联储数据显示，本月十年期美国国债交割失败规模飙升至八年来最高水平，这主要源于美联储自2022 年以来持续缩减资产负债表。 截至12月10日当周，涉及最新发行十年期美债的未能按期结算交易总额达305亿美元，创下2017年12月 以来新高。 同期，这一美债品种的回购利率跌至负值区间，持有者愿意以负利率出借债券，借入者同意次日以更低 价格卖回——这种异常情况往往导致交割失败更易发生。 债券短缺部分源于美联储在11月拍卖中持有的份额大幅减少。与今年早些时候的十年期美债拍卖相比， 美联储持有量明显下降，而美联储通常会将其持有的证券提供给市场借入，从而缓解供应紧张。 专门从事美债回购业务的经纪交易商South Street Securities总裁Jason Schuit指出，在11月拍卖的十年期 国债中，美联储购买的数量仅为前三个周期的一半，"可供借入的量就是更少了"，从而引发供应短缺并 导致交割失败。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 相比之下，在今年 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - US stock market approached historical highs with the S&P 500 index hovering just below 6900 points [1] - Investors are anticipating a busy week with key events including the last Federal Reserve meeting of 2025 and a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell [1][2] - The market is focused on the potential for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, lowering the target range from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75% [2] Group 2: Economic Data and Corporate Earnings - Key corporate earnings reports to watch include Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) on Wednesday, and Broadcom (AVGO) and Costco (COST) on Thursday [1] - The delayed JOLTS data for October will be released on Tuesday, providing insights into employment, layoffs, and resignations [1][2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting on Tuesday will be closely watched, with the decision statement and Powell's Q&A session expected to provide clues on future policy direction [2][3] - The meeting will feature the last voting session for the current committee members, with some members exiting and new ones joining [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the positive sentiment around a potential rate cut, concerns remain that a dovish signal from the Fed could lead to market panic, increasing bond yields and causing stock declines [5][6] - The bond market is showing signs of anxiety regarding the Fed's policy direction, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising over 10 basis points last week [6] Group 5: Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has been viewed as a "digital gold," attracting some funds during periods of dollar asset outflows, although physical gold remains the top performer this year with a nearly 60% increase [9] - Bitcoin's price has remained stable between $75,000 and $120,000, but it has shown a significant divergence from the S&P 500's performance this year, with the index up over 16% while Bitcoin is in a downtrend [9]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's strategist team believes that the U.S. economy is facing stagflation risks due to supply-side shocks, recommending short positions on 10-year U.S. Treasuries [1] Economic Impact of Tariffs and Immigration Policies - The bank expects core CPI inflation to rise by approximately 0.5 percentage points in the coming months due to tariff impacts, significantly above market consensus [2] - Tariff policies are likened to a combination of VAT increases and negative supply shocks, with tariffs impacting low-income households more than high-income groups, leading to a mild negative effect on overall demand [4] - Stricter immigration policies further exacerbate labor market supply shocks, potentially lowering the non-farm employment growth equilibrium to a range of 50,000 to 100,000 jobs [4] Labor Market Analysis - Despite recent weak employment data, Deutsche Bank believes initial expectations have not materially changed, with the latest non-farm employment growth slightly below the equilibrium range [5] - The bank notes that the unemployment claims data has not triggered the Sam Rule, and wage growth remains resilient, consistent with interpretations of negative supply shocks [5] Inflation Risks and Interest Rates - Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates significant upside risks to inflation, with core CPI month-on-month growth expected to be in the range of 0.3% to 0.4% [11] - The current market pricing of the terminal rate at around 3% is considered low compared to a neutral real rate close to 2%, suggesting that the market may be underpricing future inflation [11] Investment Strategy - Deutsche Bank recommends shorting 10-year U.S. Treasuries, with a target yield of 4.60% and a stop-loss at 4.05%, citing technical and seasonal factors supporting this strategy [12] - For investors looking to hedge spread risks, the bank suggests going long on 10-year SOFR with a target of 4.10% and a stop-loss at 3.55% [12]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank strategists believe the U.S. economy is facing stagflation risks due to supply-side shocks, recommending short positions on 10-year U.S. Treasuries [1][7]. Economic Impact of Tariffs and Immigration Policies - The report indicates that tariff increases and tightened immigration policies will negatively impact the U.S. economy, raising inflation while weakening economic growth, but not leading to a recession [1][4]. - Tariffs are expected to raise core CPI inflation by approximately 0.5 percentage points in the coming months, significantly above market consensus [1][8]. - The tightening of immigration policies is projected to lower the non-farm employment growth equilibrium to a range of 50,000 to 100,000 jobs, although wage growth remains resilient [4][5]. Labor Market Analysis - Despite recent weak employment data, Deutsche Bank maintains that initial expectations have not materially changed, attributing fluctuations to seasonal factors [5]. - The unemployment claims data has not triggered the Sam Rule, and the turnover rate has remained stable over the past year, aligning with the interpretation of negative supply shocks [5]. Inflation Outlook - The structural changes in supply and demand are expected to push inflation higher while weakening economic growth, without leading to a recession [7]. - The current market pricing of the terminal rate is around 3%, with actual rates significantly below neutral levels, indicating potential upward pressure on inflation [9]. Investment Strategy - Deutsche Bank suggests a short position on 10-year U.S. Treasuries, with a target yield of 4.60% and a stop-loss at 4.05%, supported by technical and seasonal factors [10]. - For investors looking to hedge against spread risks, the recommendation includes going long on 10-year SOFR with a target of 4.10% and a stop-loss at 3.55% [10].

Core Viewpoint - Jeffrey Sherman, the CIO of DoubleLine Capital, is engaging in a bond trading strategy that involves buying two-year U.S. Treasuries while shorting ten-year U.S. Treasuries to hedge against the risk of President Trump's potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Group 1 - The trading strategy is based on a bet that the yield curve will steepen following reports of Trump seeking to replace Powell [1] - Sherman suggests that the concept of a "shadow Federal Reserve" will support this trading strategy, as the market will closely scrutinize Powell's term [1] - There is an expectation that the new chairman will implement immediate rate cuts upon taking office [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the market's reaction to the potential firing of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by President Trump, highlighting investment strategies that involve buying short-term U.S. Treasury bonds while selling long-term ones due to anticipated changes in monetary policy and inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Strategies - Citigroup's James van Geelen advised approximately 50,000 clients to buy two-year U.S. Treasury bonds and sell ten-year bonds, anticipating that a new Fed chair would likely follow Trump's interest rate cut demands, leading to lower short-term yields [1]. - The strategy, termed "Powell hedge," reflects a broader concern among Wall Street investors regarding the potential loss of Fed independence and its implications for inflation and interest rates [1][5]. - Other institutions, including RBC and Allspring, share similar views, indicating a shift in perception regarding the Fed's independence and the need for protective measures in investment strategies [1][5]. Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Context - The backdrop for these trading strategies includes expectations of a slowing U.S. economy and rising debt and deficit levels, with the threat to Powell's position seen as an additional factor [2]. - Market reactions to news about Powell's potential firing included a significant rise in the 30-year Treasury yield and a drop in the dollar against the euro, illustrating the immediate impact of political developments on financial markets [6]. Group 3: Future Implications and Predictions - Analysts predict that the likelihood of Powell being dismissed remains low, with a 22% chance of him leaving by 2025, up from 18% the previous week [5]. - The article notes that if the Fed maintains its current interest rates but experiences dissent among members, this uncertainty could lead to higher long-term yields, further complicating the Fed's position amid political pressures [8][9]. - The potential for a loss of Fed independence, combined with inflationary pressures from tariffs and fiscal policy changes, could create a challenging environment for monetary policy moving forward [8].

Core Viewpoint - Global investor aversion to long-term government bonds is turning the upcoming U.S. Treasury auction into a highly anticipated event on Wall Street, particularly focusing on the sale of $22 billion in 30-year bonds, which will serve as a gauge for market appetite amid declining demand for such securities [1][2] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Auction Details - The upcoming auction results will be closely monitored as they will reflect market sentiment, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds currently viewed as undesirable by investors [1][2] - Key metrics such as the auction "tail" (the difference between final yield and pre-issue trading levels) and the bid-to-cover ratio will provide insights into market demand [2] - The participation of foreign investors will also be a focal point, as poor auction results could indicate deeper issues in market confidence [2] Group 2: Yield Trends and Economic Implications - Long-term bond yields have recently surged due to rising concerns over debt spirals and worsening fiscal deficits, with the 30-year yield reaching a near 20-year high of 5.15% before settling at 4.94% [1][3] - The increase in yields signifies heightened financing pressures as the U.S. government continues to expand its borrowing amid uncontrolled spending [1][4] - The yield curve is steepening, with the 10-year term premium indicator rising to nearly 0.75 percentage points, reflecting increased compensation demanded by investors for long-term borrowing [4] Group 3: Political and Economic Factors - Long-term yields are increasingly influenced by political factors rather than monetary policy, leading to a disconnect from fundamental economic indicators [3][4] - The potential for a tax on foreign investors, as proposed in the Trump administration's tax reform, raises concerns about foreign investment in U.S. Treasuries, despite clarifications that it would not apply to bond investments [4] - Upcoming economic data releases, including inflation metrics, are expected to further impact the yield curve, with a likely outcome of continued steepening [4]