证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 10 月 11 日 假期前后四连跌，华润商业 REIT 二 次扩景已申报 公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.09.29-2025.10.10） 发项目注册牛效 -- 公墓 2025.09.22-2025.09.26 ) 》 流动性连续第四周环降 -- 公募 ElTs (2025.09.15-2025.09.19) 》 2025/09/20 《发改委发文，助推 REITs 市场扩围 公募 REITs 周度跟踪 (2025.09.08-2025.09.12)》 2025/09/13 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 REITs 市场持续承压。假期前后 REITs 市场整体表现疲软，连续四个交易日均收 O 跌，八大板块中仅数据中心板块逆势收涨。市场流动性持续收缩，(周度）日均换 手率已进一步降至 0.3%以下（剔除上 ...

2025 年 10 月 11 日 假期前后四连跌，华润商业 REIT 二 次扩募已申报 ——公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.09.29-2025.10.10） 相关研究 《三单首发项目注册生效——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2025.09.22-2025.09.26）》 2025/09/27 《流动性连续第四周环降——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2025.09.15-2025.09.19）》 2025/09/20 《发改委发文，助推 REITs 市场扩围 扩容——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2025.09.08-2025.09.12）》 2025/09/13 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 (8621)23297818× caoxuan@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项 ...

Core Insights - Insurance companies are increasingly investing in commercial real estate and office buildings, with significant investments reported this year, totaling several billion yuan, which is a notable increase compared to the same period last year [1][3] - The focus of these investments is primarily on rental-type assets such as commercial offices and logistics real estate, which are seen as high-quality targets due to their stable cash flows and long-term appreciation potential [1][3] Investment Trends - Major insurance firms like China Life, Pacific Life, and Ping An Life have made over ten large real estate investments this year, with a concentration on income-generating properties [1][3] - The recent listing of Huaxia Kaide Commercial REIT, backed by significant insurance capital, highlights the trend of insurance companies participating in public REITs and standardized investment products [2][3] Rental Housing Market - Insurance capital is emerging as a new core buyer in the rental housing market, with significant investments in long-term rental housing projects in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [5][6] - The characteristics of rental housing assets, such as low volatility and predictable cash flows, align well with the risk profiles and investment strategies of insurance companies [6][10] Policy Support - Recent regulatory frameworks have facilitated insurance companies' entry into the rental housing market, allowing them to invest through various financial instruments [7][8] - The establishment of a closed-loop system for fundraising, investment, management, and exit has alleviated concerns for insurance capital, making it easier to invest in long-term rental housing projects [8] Market Dynamics - The demand for stable cash flow assets has intensified among insurance companies due to declining yields on fixed-income assets, prompting them to seek high-yield rental properties [9][10] - The rental yield for commercial real estate in first-tier cities remains attractive, with rates between 5.5% and 6.5%, which enhances the overall investment returns for insurance capital [11]

"十一"假期前，华夏凯德商业REIT上市，底层资产为广州、长沙核心商圈的两个成熟购物中心。该项 目重要投资者中又见险资身影——财信人寿作为最大份额的外部投资人，正式参与战略配售。近两三年 间，险资通过直接或间接方式，不断加码对存量商业地产、办公楼、长租公寓等领域的投资。 "我们这两年投资的办公楼项目基本处于满租状态，租金收入还不错，虽然不是买在价格最低点，更多 是'偏左侧布局'，但通过逐渐布局，在成本与收益之间取得了较好的平衡。"北京一家险企相关负责人 告诉中国证券报记者。 多位业内人士透露，经过一段时间调整，部分高品质不动产已显现性价比，让险资等来了入手时机。在 票息承压背景下，出租率高且租约稳定、现金流充裕并具有长期增值潜力的收租型资产越来越成为险资 眼中的优质标的。 ● 本报记者 薛瑾 租赁住房的新核心买家 近期，出资额为45亿元的天津家寓股权投资基金合伙企业投入运作，其合伙人包括大家人寿、友邦人 寿、中宏人寿、复星保德信人寿等多家保险公司。该基金由大家投控发起，将重点布局北京、上海等一 线城市的保障性租赁住房项目。大家投控相关人士称，该基金为保险业首只增值策略长租住房基金，致 力于通过市场化、专业化运 ...

去年开始，南京的易莲常常诉苦水。 她在当地一家老牌国企上班，前两年开始就没新开发项目了，领导私下跟她说，明年还要降薪。 易莲的遭遇不是个例，全国成千上万的城投公司、地方融资平台，都在经历同样的困境。 而今年中央重要会议上一句话，更是给这事儿定了调—— "以前逢年过节福利不少，现在连体检都得自己掏钱，楼市不景气，公司效益越来越差。" "有力有序有效推进地方融资平台出清"。 这意味着，房地产"出清"真的来了，城投要全面退出楼市舞台了！ 中央一锤定音：城投退出，不是玩笑 我们看到，在今年上半年开的中央城市工作会议上，把话说得很明白： 城镇化从"快速涨"转向"稳定发展"，城市从"盖新房"转向"改旧房"。 1 这个底层逻辑一变，城投公司的历史使命，其实就结束了。 中央提的"有力、有序、有效"推进出清，三个"有"字，可不是随便说说。 优质的城投，给并购融资支持；有风险的，只保障"保交楼"的钱，其他的不管。 据业内消息，今年内大概有30-50家中小房企会通过并购退出市场。 这波出清，会彻底改了房地产行业的规矩，以后再也不是城投靠着地方背景随便拿地、随便借钱的时代了！ 2 为啥非要出清？三个原因，太现实 其实，我们理性分析： ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the public REITs market in China has entered a normalization phase, providing a crucial bridge for real estate companies to transition from heavy asset development to light asset operations, thus reshaping their development logic and value [1][5] - As of September 24, 2023, the public REITs market in China has listed 74 funds, raising a total of 199.15 billion yuan, with various categories such as park infrastructure, consumer infrastructure, and warehouse logistics [1] - The emergence of public REITs allows real estate companies to release funds tied up in self-owned properties, which can be used to repay debts or invest in new light asset projects, thereby reducing their asset-liability ratios [2] Group 2 - Public REITs facilitate a virtuous cycle in commercial real estate by providing clear exit channels for mature projects, allowing companies to recycle capital into new developments or upgrades [3] - The reliance on rental income and operational efficiency from underlying assets in public REITs compels companies to shift from a development-focused mindset to an operationally-driven approach, enhancing their professional capabilities [4] - The five-year practice of public REITs has proven to be a transformative bridge for the real estate industry, encouraging companies to integrate their asset structures and focus on professional operations to create long-term value for investors [5]

外资发起的商业设施REIT将在中国首次上市（图片为广州凯德广场·云尚，由凯德投资提供） 中国公募REIT始于2021年6月，现在上海和深圳市场共有74只REIT（截至9月17日）上市。 在日本，REIT的诞生契机是泡沫经济破裂后的不良债权处理，形成了重视房地产"收益率"而 非"价格上涨"的投资模式…… 中国的房地产投资信托（REIT）的扩容机遇不断增多。负责制定中国经济政策的国家发展和 改革委员会9月12日发布了促进公募REIT市场发展的通知。在日本，REIT的诞生契机是泡沫 经济破裂后的不良债权处理，形成了重视房地产"收益率"而非"价格上涨"的投资模式。中国 是否也能由市场机制来抑制没有收益的过度投资，为结构改革指引方向？ 铁路及特高压输电等成为对象 "对于具有一定收益、发行上市前景良好的基础设施项目提前做好项目培育，在项目谋划决 策、投资建设阶段依法依规办理投资管理手续，理顺产权关系，在投入运营后持续提升管理 水平和效率，具备条件后积极开展项目申报推荐工作"，国家发改委将REIT市场的培育定位于 国家战略，要求持有房地产及公共基础设施的地方政府及国有企业等积极设立REIT。同时还 指示将投资对象扩大到铁路 ...

Market Overview - The secondary market for publicly listed REITs in China experienced slight fluctuations, with the weighted REITs index closing at 186.04 and a weekly return of -0.81% [4] - In comparison to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked from highest to lowest are: A-shares > US stocks > convertible bonds > gold > pure bonds > REITs > crude oil [4] - Among different project attributes, property and franchise REITs showed mixed performance, while property REITs saw an increase [4] - Energy REITs had the highest growth this week, with the top three performing asset types being energy, ecological protection, and transportation infrastructure [4] Trading Activity - The total trading volume for public REITs this week was 2.89 billion yuan, with the average daily turnover rate at 0.65% [5] - The top three REITs by trading volume were: Zhongjin Vipshop Outlet REIT, Bosera Shekou Industrial Park REIT, and Huaxia Hefei High-tech REIT [5] - The top three REITs by trading value were: Zhongjin Vipshop Outlet REIT, Guojin China Railway Construction REIT, and Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT [5] Net Inflows and Block Trades - The total net inflow for the week was 11.22 million yuan, indicating a recovery in market trading enthusiasm [6] - The top three REITs by net inflow were: Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT, Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT, and Huaxia Shouchuang Outlet REIT [6] - The total amount of block trades reached 737.2 million yuan, with the highest single-day block trade occurring on September 8, totaling 233.35 million yuan [6] New Listings - Zhongjin Vipshop Outlet REIT was newly listed this week [7] - The status of three new issuance projects was updated during the week [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a relatively complete second growth curve, laying a solid foundation for long-term cross-cycle development, which is an important direction for future growth [30]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a contracted sales amount of 110.3 billion yuan and a sales area of 4.12 million square meters, representing a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% and 20.9% respectively, while maintaining the third position in the industry in terms of total sales amount [2][3]. - The sales contribution from the top 10 cities reached 70%, with a year-on-year increase of 5 percentage points, and the sales proportion from first-tier cities (including Hong Kong) rose to 46%, up 8 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. - The overall sales clearance rate for the first half of 2025 was approximately 33.2%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Land Acquisition and Investment - In the first half of 2025, the company acquired 18 new projects with a total land investment of 32.28 billion yuan, resulting in a total construction area of 1.48 million square meters [11]. - The ratio of land acquisition sales amount rebounded to 0.44, compared to 0.29 in 2024, with new investments concentrated in first and second-tier cities [10][11]. - As of mid-2025, the total land reserve area was 48.95 million square meters, indicating a relatively healthy layout structure despite a 5.8% decrease from the beginning of the period [13]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The company reported operating revenue of 94.92 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, while core net profit was 10 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.6% [3][15]. - The gross profit margin was 24%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin and attributable net profit margin decreased by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points to 15.5% and 12.5% respectively [17]. - The company maintained a strong financial position with a cash holding of 120.24 billion yuan and a net debt ratio of 39.2%, remaining at a low level in the industry [20]. Group 4: Business Model and Diversification - The company continues to implement the "3+1" integrated business model, focusing on urban investment and development, with asset management scale reaching 483.5 billion yuan by mid-2025 [24]. - The retail revenue from shopping centers reached 110.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, while the company plans to open approximately six new shopping centers in 2025 [26]. - The company is actively promoting the normalization of public REITs expansion, aiming for a scale of 30 billion to 50 billion yuan in the future [24].

Core Viewpoint - Company reported 1H25 results that met market expectations, with a revenue increase of 19.9% year-on-year to 94.92 billion yuan, and a core net profit decline of 6.6% to 10 billion yuan [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue from regular business grew by 2.5% and core net profit by 9.6%, with regular business contributing 60.2% to core net profit, an increase of 8.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.20 yuan per share, maintaining a dividend yield of 14.3% [1] - Development sales decreased by 11.5% to 110.3 billion yuan, while settlement revenue increased by 25.8% to 74.4 billion yuan, with a settlement gross margin improvement of 3.2 percentage points to 15.6% [2] - The company maintained a net debt ratio of 39.2%, which is still low in the industry, and the cash short-term debt ratio is 2.0 [2] Strategic Development - The company plans to issue REITs worth 30-50 billion yuan over the next 3-5 years, with an average annual disposal of 5-10 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance cash flow and balance sheet resilience [2] - The company acquired land with a cost of 44.7 billion yuan, a 75% increase year-on-year, focusing on core cities and locations [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The core net profit forecast for 2025 is expected to decline by 4% to 24.45 billion yuan, while the 2026 forecast is raised by 5% to 25.62 billion yuan [3] - The target price is adjusted upward by 13% to 37 HKD, corresponding to 0.8 times the 2025 target P/B ratio, indicating a 22% upside potential [3]