Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price raised to HKD 7.40 from HKD 6.30 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 decreased by 21.9% year-on-year to RMB 7.01 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 8.4% to RMB 1.48 billion. Excluding RMB 718 million in licensing fee income, product sales revenue was approximately 4.6% lower than expected, primarily due to a slowdown in the sales of established drugs [1][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in product sales revenue starting from Q2 2025, as the impact of centralized procurement for certain oncology drugs has already been reflected, and sales are expected to increase after the inclusion of new drugs in the medical insurance list by the end of 2024 [2][4]. - The company is expected to achieve multiple significant overseas licensing agreements, with Q1 licensing fee income of RMB 718 million primarily from agreements with BeiGene and AstraZeneca. These agreements involve upfront payments totaling USD 250 million (approximately RMB 1.8 billion) and potential milestone payments of up to USD 3.56 billion (approximately RMB 25.6 billion) [3][4]. Financial Summary - The company's projected total revenue for 2025 is RMB 29.89 billion, reflecting a 3.0% growth rate, while net profit is expected to be RMB 4.77 billion, a 10.2% increase. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected at RMB 0.41, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.4 [5][13]. - The financial data indicates a decline in established drug sales, with revenue from the core product Enbrel decreasing by 29.5% year-on-year, and oncology drug sales dropping by 65.7% due to centralized procurement impacts [1][5]. - The report includes a detailed financial forecast, showing total revenue growth rates of 1.7% in 2023, a decline of 7.8% in 2024, and subsequent growth rates of 3.0%, 12.8%, and 12.6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][13].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded on June 3, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.5% to close at 23,512 and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.1% to 5,189, indicating a significant recovery in market sentiment [1] - The trading volume reached HKD 203.7 billion, showing a notable increase compared to previous days, although the net inflow from the Stock Connect was only HKD 3.9 billion [1] - Major financial stocks, including CITIC Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China, hit historical highs, reflecting continued investment in high-dividend defensive assets [1] Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector saw a rebound, with Xiaomi's automotive business losses decreasing and expectations for profitability in Q3 or Q4 of this year, driven by the upcoming launch of the YU7 model [3] - The healthcare sector also performed well, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 2.5%. Notable gains were seen in companies reporting positive clinical data at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) [3] - The renewable energy and utilities sectors experienced widespread gains, with Goldwind Technology rising by 13.3% due to share buyback plans and the establishment of an AI-related subsidiary [4] Company-Specific Insights - The report on CSPC Pharmaceutical Group indicated a 21.9% year-on-year decline in total revenue for Q1 2025, amounting to RMB 7.01 billion, primarily due to a slowdown in the sales of its core products [5] - The company expects a gradual recovery in product sales starting from Q2 2025, as the impact of centralized procurement has already been reflected in Q1 results [6] - CSPC has secured multiple overseas licensing agreements, with expected upfront payments totaling approximately RMB 1 billion and potential milestone payments exceeding RMB 25.6 billion, indicating strong future revenue prospects [7][8] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The report on the Chinese real estate market highlighted a 12.0% year-on-year decline in new home transaction volume across 30 major cities, with first-tier cities showing resilience [9] - First-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen reported increases in cumulative transaction volumes, with Shanghai up by 9.5% and Shenzhen by 45.8% year-on-year [10] - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 46.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [12]

Core Viewpoint - The termination of the merger between New Nuo Wei and Shiyao Baike Bio marks a significant setback for New Nuo Wei's innovative drug strategy, leading to a financial crisis due to high R&D costs and declining cash flow [2][10]. Financial Performance - New Nuo Wei's net profit for 2024 was 53.73 million yuan, a decrease of 87.63% year-on-year, and in Q1 2025, the net profit loss was 26.90 million yuan, a decline of 134.03% [10]. - The company's operating cash flow for 2024 was -1.235 billion yuan, marking its first instance of cash flow loss, with Q1 2025 still showing a negative cash flow of -86.80 million yuan [10][11]. - The total revenue for New Nuo Wei in Q1 2025 was 472 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.94%, while the total revenue for 2024 was 1.981 billion yuan, down 21.98% [15]. Product Performance - The core product "Jin You Li" (long-acting G-CSF drug) saw a dramatic revenue decline, with projected 2024 revenue of 922 million yuan, down from 2.316 billion yuan in 2023 [3][4]. - The average selling price of "Jin You Li" dropped from 1,349.22 yuan per unit in 2022 to 1,053.12 yuan per unit by mid-2024 [4][5]. - Sales volume for "Jin You Li" in the first half of 2024 was 87.39 million units, compared to 203.52 million units in 2023 [5]. Market Competition - The market for long-acting G-CSF drugs has intensified, with New Nuo Wei's "Jin You Li" facing competition from multiple new entrants, increasing the competitive landscape from six to nine major players [4][6]. - The reliance on a single product for revenue generation poses a significant risk, as "Jin You Li" accounted for over 97% of Shiyao Baike's income [3][6]. Strategic Implications - The failed merger was intended to provide stable income and cash flow to support New Nuo Wei's R&D investments in its subsidiary, Jushi Bio, which is currently under financial strain [10]. - The ongoing high R&D expenditures have significantly impacted New Nuo Wei's profitability, with a gross margin of 41.97% in 2024, down 3.36 percentage points year-on-year [15].

Core Viewpoint - New Nuo Wei (300765.SZ) has terminated its acquisition of Shiyao Baike, with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange halting the review of the asset purchase and fundraising application due to changes in the pharmaceutical industry and capital market conditions since the initial planning of the restructuring [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition was initially approved by New Nuo Wei's board in January 2024, intending to purchase 100% of Shiyao Baike for a total consideration of 7.6 billion yuan, with 90% paid in shares and 10% in cash [2][3]. - The transaction was expected to enhance New Nuo Wei's biopharmaceutical portfolio, particularly in long-acting proteins and innovative drug pipelines [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - New Nuo Wei has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit for two consecutive years, with revenues of 25.39 billion yuan in 2023 and 19.81 billion yuan in 2024, representing year-on-year decreases of 4.75% and 21.98%, respectively [6]. - The net profit for 2023 and 2024 was reported at 4.34 billion yuan and 537.26 million yuan, showing declines of 40.18% and 87.63% year-on-year [6]. - In Q1 2025, New Nuo Wei reported revenues of 472 million yuan, a 9.94% decrease year-on-year, and a net loss of 26.90 million yuan compared to a profit of 79.06 million yuan in the same period the previous year [8]. Group 3: R&D and Market Conditions - The company has significantly increased its R&D expenditures, reaching 840 million yuan in 2024, a 25.44% increase from the previous year, with Q1 2025 R&D expenses at 240 million yuan, up 117.68% year-on-year [6][9]. - New Nuo Wei's strategic focus includes ADCs, mRNA vaccines, and antibody drugs, with over 20 products in the pipeline and several achieving important milestones in 2024 [7].

Group 1: Termination of Asset Restructuring - The termination of the asset restructuring will not have a significant adverse impact on the company's existing operations and strategic planning [1][2][4] - The decision to terminate the restructuring was made after careful consideration of the pharmaceutical industry and capital market conditions [2][4] - The company will not plan any major asset restructuring for at least one month following the announcement of the termination [2][4] Group 2: Business Operations and Future Plans - The company will continue to focus on research and development, enhancing drug development efficiency [2][3][4] - Ongoing projects, including the construction of production lines for monoclonal antibodies and ADC new products, are progressing normally [3][4] - As of April 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 12,217 [2][5] Group 3: Innovation and Market Strategy - The company aims to establish a comprehensive research pipeline by continuously exploring new molecules and maintaining a high-efficiency research progress [2][3] - Future product lines will focus on cutting-edge areas such as ADC, mRNA vaccines, and antibody drugs [2][5] - The company is committed to creating greater value for investors through sustained innovation and improved management [2][4]