山推股份 20250903 摘要 山推股份海外市场收入占比超 70%，是未来增长关键，预计 2025 年海 外收入达 90 亿元，同比增长 21%，但需关注俄罗斯市场影响减弱后的 业绩增长点。 矿山机械贡献山推股份 40%以上净利润，大马力推土机等产品是重要利 润来源，受益于国产替代趋势及新兴市场需求，盈利能力有望提升。 公司计划回购 1.5-3 亿元股份用于股权激励，并已启动港股上市申请， 表明公司对未来发展充满信心，但需关注港股发行摊薄效应。 山推股份在全球推土机销量中排名第三，中国市场出口占有率超 70%， 具有垄断地位，但需关注卡特彼勒和小松等竞争对手的市场策略。 2025 年上半年山推股份总收入 70 亿元，同比增长 3%，主机业务毛利 率 24%，国外市场收入占比 56%，同比增长 8%，但国内市场增长相 对缓慢。 山东重工承诺解决内部挖掘机业务同业竞争问题，雷沃重工和潍柴青岛 的业务调整或资产重组将影响山推股份的市场格局。 预计山推股份 2025-2027 年归母净利润复合增速 23%，市盈率较低， 但需关注基建地产投资不及预期及海外贸易摩擦等风险因素。 Q&A 山推股份的核心业务和未来发展前景 ...

2025 年 8 月 26 日 公司研究 海外业务稳步增长，扣非业绩表现亮眼 ——山推股份（000680.SZ）2025 年中报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年中报。2025 年上半年，公司实现营业收入 70.0 亿元， 同比增长 3.0%（追溯调整后，下同）；归母净利润 5.7 亿元，同比增长 8.8%； 扣非归母净利润 5.6 亿元，同比增长 36.5%。2025 年 Q2，公司实现营收 37.0 亿元，同比增长 3.2%，环比增长 12.2%，归母净利润 3.0 亿元，同比增长 4.7%， 环比增长 8.4%，扣非归母净利润 2.9 亿元，同比增长 44.3%，环比增长 7.9%。 点评： 营收平稳增长，扣非净利润表现亮眼：25 年 H1，公司营业收入在经历 24 年同 期营收高增长后增速逐步回稳，完成 2025 全年营收目标（157 亿元）的 45%， 其中海外业务收入 39 亿元，同比增长 7.7%，全年收入目标（90 亿元）完成约 43%；费用端，25 年 H1 期间费率约 9.9%，同比提升 0.2pct，主要因销售激励 增加等导致销售薪酬增长，销售费用同比增加 31%；利润端，公司归母 ...

Core Viewpoint - The construction of major projects in Jining City is accelerating, serving as a stabilizing force for growth and an important means to optimize the economic structure. High-quality industrial projects are being launched, contributing to regional economic development and creating new growth momentum [12][15]. Group 1: High-Quality Industrial Projects - The Kolun Alloy New Materials R&D and Production Project in Jiaxiang County features advanced automation, producing zinc-aluminum-magnesium plates with high heat resistance, 10 to 20 times that of traditional galvanized steel [13]. - The project has introduced 20 new production lines, aiming for an annual output of 400,000 tons of zinc-aluminum-magnesium plates and 200,000 tons of electroplated chromium plates, generating an annual output value of 2.6 billion yuan and tax revenue of 470 million yuan, while creating 270 jobs [14]. - The Hengwang Green Intelligent Manufacturing Base for large and medium-sized construction machinery has completed its first phase and is set to start the second phase, focusing on smart technology and green processes [14][15]. Group 2: Infrastructure Projects - Major infrastructure projects are being expedited, including the construction of the Xiongshang High-Speed Railway Yellow River Bridge, which utilizes advanced technologies for precision construction [17]. - Multiple highway projects are progressing, with the Jining to Shangqiu Highway expected to enhance regional connectivity and promote economic development [18]. - The Jizhou Highway project has completed 94.2% of its earthworks and 44.6% of its road surface works, with an expected early completion [18]. Group 3: Government Initiatives - The Jining government aims to accelerate major project construction, implementing the "1113" investment expansion plan, focusing on 1,100 key projects, including 10 projects over 10 billion yuan and 30 projects over 3 billion yuan [19]. - The government is encouraging social capital participation in advanced manufacturing and urbanization projects, maintaining a 70% share of private investment [19].

齐鲁晚报.齐鲁壹点记者陈丹 重大项目建设既是稳增长的"压舱石"，又是优化经济结构的重要抓手。今年以来，济宁市项目建设加速推进。 宁德时代（300750）新能源产业电池基地、恒旺年产绿色智能制造基地等一批科技含量高、技术性强、产业高优质 产业项目顺利投产，锻造发展新引擎，莱赛尔纤维等项目也在全力推进，大干实干的风潮遍布齐鲁大地。与此同 时，多条高速公路建设提前实现"双超半"目标，港航建设迎来新进展，区域路网铺就城市内畅外联之路。 优质产业项目 据了解，该项目项目投资8.6亿元，新上锌铝镁板材、盐酸洗等生产线20条，项目全部投产后，年产锌铝镁板材40 万吨、电镀铬板材20万吨、聚合氯化铁2.4万吨，实现年产值26亿元、利税4.7亿元，带动就业270人。 另一方面，恒旺年产3000台大中型工程机械绿色智能制造基地项目一期已建成投用，项目二期也将适时启动。公司 总经理刘小伟表示，绿色智能制造基地以智能技术驱动生产，以绿色工艺降耗减排，以全链协同优化资源，尽管是 重型机械生产企业，新建车间均达到"无尘"标准。同时，新厂房通过MES系统进行生产管理和调度执行，以更优方 案完成订单任务。随着新生产线逐步达产，大马力推土机、 ...

Group 1 - Shandong Heavy Industry Group reported a total revenue of 289.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a total profit of 14.97 billion yuan, up 6.9%, leading the industry and ranking first among provincial enterprises [1] - The company sold 212,000 heavy trucks in the first half of the year, achieving a market share of 40.9%, maintaining its position as the global leader in heavy truck sales [1] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, a subsidiary, secured the top position in the domestic heavy truck industry, achieving the highest sales in various segments such as express delivery, cold chain transportation, and containers [1] Group 2 - The sales of new energy heavy trucks surged by 242% year-on-year, positioning the company as the industry leader, with comprehensive coverage of new energy technology and six application scenarios [2] - The proportion of high-end products continued to rise, with the data center power generation business of Weichai growing by 664% year-on-year, and significant export orders for electric buses to regions including Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas [2] - The company emphasizes focusing on its core business and deepening innovation to establish a solid foundation for global leadership in the competitive equipment manufacturing industry [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [8][18]. Core Views - The company reported steady performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 3.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 273 million yuan, up 13.63% year-on-year [1]. - The company is accelerating its transformation towards high-tech, high-quality, and high-value-added products, with a significant increase in the number of new products developed [2]. - The integration of high-quality resources within the group has led to a complete and efficient production system, leveraging economies of scale and competitive advantages [3]. - The chairman proposed a share buyback plan, demonstrating confidence in the company's long-term development and aiming to stabilize and enhance company value [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 1.37 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.83 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.6, 8.3, and 7.1 times [5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 19.2%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.8 percentage points to 8.3% [1]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 10.54 billion yuan in 2023 to 19.97 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.28% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 765 million yuan in 2023 to 1.83 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [6]. Strategic Developments - The company has successfully launched new products such as skid steer loaders and excavator loaders, enhancing its high-end product line [2]. - The acquisition of Shanzhong Construction Machinery has been completed, with performance commitments for 2024-2026 expected to be exceeded, contributing positively to the company's earnings [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [8][18]. Core Views - The company reported steady performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 3.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 273 million yuan, up 13.63% year-on-year [1]. - The company is accelerating its transformation towards high-tech, high-quality, and high-value-added products, with a significant increase in the number of new products developed [2]. - The integration of high-quality resources within the group has led to a complete and efficient production system, leveraging economies of scale and competitive advantages [3]. - The chairman proposed a share buyback plan, demonstrating confidence in the company's long-term development and aiming to stabilize and enhance company value [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 1.37 billion, 1.57 billion, and 1.83 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.6, 8.3, and 7.1 times [5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 19.2%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.8 percentage points to 8.3% [1]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 10.54 billion yuan in 2023 to 19.97 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.28% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 765 million yuan in 2023 to 1.83 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6]. Business Strategy - The company has successfully launched new products such as skid steer loaders and excavator loaders, enhancing its high-end product line [2]. - The acquisition of Shanzhong Construction Machinery has strengthened the company's business integrity and is expected to contribute significantly to future earnings [2].

盈利预测、估值与评级：公司大马力推土机产品优势明显，海外营收表现突出，公司利润率稳步提升。 我们维持25-26 年归母净利润预测，新增27 年归母净利润预测，预计公司25-27 年归母净利润分别为 12.2/14.6/17.5 亿元。随着海外市场的持续开拓，我们认为公司作为大马力推土机龙头，主机业务未来 可期，成长空间广阔，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：国际局势不稳定风险；海外市场拓展不及预期；汇率风险；原材料价格波动的风险，关税不 确定性风险。 分产品来看，2024 年公司工程机械主机产品收入97.63 亿元，同比增长26.6%，毛利率为23.1%，同比 +0.6pct；工程机械配件及其他收入31.45 亿元，同比增长30.2%，毛利率为11.5%，同比略有提升。公司 2024 年主机产品的量利齐增是核心亮点，随着高端产品线不断丰富，主机业务未来可期。 分地区来看，2024 年国外片区收入74.11 亿元，同比增长26.1%，占总收入的57.4%，毛利率为27.4%， 同比+0.5pct；国内片区收入54.97 亿元，同比增长29.4%，毛利率为10.8%，同比+0.5pct。 事件：4 月23 日山推股份 ...