国外 1. 瑞银：下调美股配置至中性，资金全球化分散趋势渐显 金十数据2月27日讯，瑞银表示，已将美国股票的投资建议下调至中性，因美股在其他地区增长加速之 际恐将落后。策略师列举的原因包括：美国企业盈利对全球增长的敏感度相对较低、估值偏高、资金向 美国以外分散的趋势以及美元的下行风险等。他们表示："美国是各主要地区中经营杠杆最低的，因此 若全球增速升至3.5%以上，从历史看美股表现将落后。"瑞银预计2026年全球GDP增速为3.4%。随着科 技巨头回报减弱及国内政策制定陷入混乱，全球投资者正从美股撤离，寻求替代选择。美元疲软是另一 个推动因素。策略师表示，从我们在北美市场的营销情况看，资金无疑将流向全球。ETF资金流显示分 散化正在发生。尽管如此，美国市场规模庞大，即使是中性配置也仍将占较大比重，美国股票在MSCI 全球股票指数中占比超过70%。(金十数据APP) 2. 高盛：英伟达强劲财报难阻股价下跌，利好兑现压力显现 高盛指出，尽管英伟达(NVDA.O)营收同比增长73%，且对人工智能业务前景给出乐观指引，但该股仍 下跌4.5%，拖累半导体板块及标普500指数走低。分析师称，这反映出"卖事实"行情、获利了 ...

中信建投：看好顺周期板块行情 重点看好重资产行业困境反转机会：一是通胀预期升温，PPI持续修复，大宗商品价格上行，利好重资 产企业资产负债表修复；二是化工、建材等行业历经产能出清，叠加反内卷政策控增量、稳价格，行业 盈利修复动力增强；三是一线城市地产逐步企稳，有望带动内需与产业链需求回暖。综合转债估值与行 业逻辑，建议重点关注化工、建材、电力设备板块。 光大证券：碳排放双控转型推动碳成本重估，看好绿电的非电应用 国内从能耗双控向碳排放双控的考核机制转变、欧盟碳关税实质落地，具备低碳或负碳属性的资产（绿 铝、绿氢氨醇、零碳园区等）将获得绿色溢价。综合考虑下游支付溢价能力、替代经济性等因素，航运 燃料绿醇、储氢固碳绿氨、氢冶金领域的非电应用有望受益。 昨日，市场探底回升，三大指数涨跌不一，创业板指盘中一度跌超1%，黄白线分化。沪深两市成交额 2.54万亿。从板块来看，算力硬件方向涨幅居前，PCB、CPO、液冷服务器、算力芯片概念均表现强 势，电力板块走强，燃气轮机概念集体大涨。下跌方面，影视院线、保险、房地产等板块跌幅居前。截 至收盘，沪指跌0.01%，深成指涨0.19%，创业板指跌0.29%。 在今日券商晨会上 ...

北美发电景气度持续高涨，看好燃机+天然气发动机 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 26 日 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 李哲 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110028 | | | 邮箱： | lizhe_yj@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 刘晓旭 | | 执业证书： S0590524040006 | | | 邮箱： | xxliu@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -20% 0% 20% 40% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/2 机械 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 燃机行业点评 事件：特朗普推动 AI 巨头自建电厂。特朗普近期指出电网老化已无法满足 AI 发 展所需的庞大电力需求，要求科技公司自建电厂。3 月 4 日，亚马逊、微软等七 大科技巨头将齐聚白宫，正式签署"电费缴纳者保护承诺"。巨头们将承诺为新建 AI 数据中心自建或采购电力，不再依赖公共电网，旨在确保 AI 发展的同时避免 居民电费上涨。 AI 数据中心的迅猛发展 ...

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 25 日 庄汀洲 石油与化工行业首席研究员 座机：010-56793939 邮箱：zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com 刘俊 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 边文姣 电力设备与新能源行业联席首席研究 员 座机：0755-82776411 邮箱：bianwenjiao@htsc.com 今日热点 基础化工：美将磷系农资列入战略资源影响深远 2026 年 2 月 18 日，特朗普政府援引《国防生产法》发布行政令，正式将磷 元素与草甘膦除草剂列为美国战略资源，以保障国内供应链安全。全球近几 年 80%的磷资源下游用于磷肥，草甘膦由于转基因抗性种子需求成为全球第 一大除草剂，二者是全球农资的核心环节。据 USGS，2025 年美国磷矿石 进口依存度 16%，主要来自秘鲁及摩洛哥。美国草甘膦本土产能充足，但考 虑厂商到对欧洲及南美的供应，仍需进口中国产草甘膦。相对而言，中国磷 矿石自给率较高，而草甘膦净出口且产能略过剩。我们认为，磷系农资列入 战略物资因美国对二者供应稳定性的强调，短期在粮价低迷需求不振背景 ...

这轮有色资源品的轰轰烈烈行情历历在目。 逆全球化地缘主义掣肘出海+双碳管控，催生第二类稀缺资源： （1）战略性：一是中国具备全产业链和成本优势领域，成功攫取海外原料和下游出口两端利润，打造中国供给定 价权战略制造，如电解铝、化工&石化、油运等；二是美国部分高精尖产业，如民航、燃机、芯片等，基于关税 和地缘 【长江金属&大化工&交运-联合深度】资源大时代，下一个战略品种在哪里？ 这轮有色资源品的轰轰烈烈行情历历在目。 逆全球化地缘主义掣肘出海+双碳管控，催生第二类稀缺资源： （1）战略性：一是中国具备全产业链和成本优势领域，成功攫取海外原料和下游出口两端利润，打造中国供给定 价权战略制造，如电解铝、化工&石化、油运等；二是美国部分高精尖产业，如民航、燃机、芯片等，基于关税 和地缘而成为战略资源。 （2）全球性：一是逆全球化下各国制造业回流和战略补库，边际抬升制造业需求韧性；二是降息范式下，金融流 动性传导至实体修复，大宗轮动周期为"有色-化工-原油"，后续空间值得期待。 （3）价格低位：相比屡创新高的有色资源，电解铝、化工、炼化和航空价格处于历史相对低位，构筑极强安全边 际，且供给被约束的冶炼制造，利润率显著低 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The primary focus of the conference call was on the **computing hardware** sector, particularly in relation to overseas blockchain computing [1] Key Themes and Trends - **Strongest Market Lines**: - Computing hardware emerged as the strongest market line, with notable companies such as **Daiwei Technology** achieving a 4-board increase, **Te Fa Information** with a 3-board increase, and **Honghe Technology** and **Shandong Glass Fiber** both achieving a 2-board increase [1][1] - **Sector Performance**: - **Comic and Animation**: **Zhangyue Technology** saw a 4-board increase [1] - **Photovoltaics**: **Yabo Co., Ltd.** also achieved a 4-board increase [1] - **Chemicals**: **Meibang Co., Ltd.** recorded a 2-board increase [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Companies like **Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry**, **Xianglu Tungsten Industry**, and **Jiang Tungsten Equipment** each saw a 2-board increase [1] Sector Breakdown - **Key Sectors**: - **Optical Communication**: Companies such as **Tianfu Communication**, **Taicheng Light**, **Juguang Technology**, **Zhishang Technology**, **Guangku Technology**, and **Huanxu Electronics** are highlighted [1] - **Liquid Cooling**: Companies including **Yimikang**, **Shenling Environment**, **Kechuang Xinyuan**, **Yingweike**, **Chuanrun Co., Ltd.**, **Dayuan Pump Industry**, **Yidong Electronics**, and **Feilong Co., Ltd.** are mentioned [1] - **Gas Turbines**: Key players include **Dongfang Electric**, **Yingliu Co., Ltd.**, **Boying Welding**, **Longda Co., Ltd.**, **Wanze Co., Ltd.**, **Weichai Power**, and **Jereh Co., Ltd.** [1] - **Electronic Fabrics**: Companies such as **Shandong Glass Fiber**, **Honghe Technology**, **China National Materials**, **China Jushi**, and **International Composites** are noted [1] - **Power Supply**: Companies like **Zhongheng Electric**, **Keshida**, **Oulutong**, **Jinpan Technology**, **Maigemi Te**, and **Hu塑科技** are included [1] Additional Insights - **Cloud Computing**: Companies such as **Daiwei Technology**, **Youke De**, **Beijing Online**, **Dongfang Guoxin**, **Qingyun Technology**, and **Litong Electronics** are highlighted as key players in the cloud computing sector [1] - **Tungsten Industry**: Companies like **Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry**, **Xianglu Tungsten Industry**, **Dongfang Tantalum**, and **China Tungsten High-tech** are mentioned as significant contributors to the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - **Semiconductors**: The sector is experiencing price increases, indicating potential investment opportunities [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.44%, gaining 382 points to close at 26,942 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.02% [1] - The early trading volume in the Hong Kong stock market reached 136.3 billion HKD [1] Group 2: Space Photovoltaic Sector - Space photovoltaic concept stocks surged, driven by Tesla's acceleration in solar manufacturing, with expectations for exponential growth in space photovoltaic demand [1] - JunDa Co., Ltd. (02865) increased by 13.86%, and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800) rose by 4.5% [1] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - Domestic property stocks continued their recent upward trend, with improved confidence in the real estate market and increasing likelihood of policy easing [1] - Sunac China Holdings Limited (01918) rose by 7.38%, and CIFI Holdings (Group) Co., Ltd. (00884) increased by 5.88% [1] Group 4: Fiber Optic Industry - Changfei Optical Fiber and Cable Co., Ltd. (06869) surged by 13.99%, reaching a new high, driven by increased demand for AI computing power [1] Group 5: Electrical Equipment Sector - Chongqing Machinery and Electric Co., Ltd. (02722) saw a rise of over 15.6%, attributed to strong performance from Cummins and robust demand for backup power in data centers [1] Group 6: AI Industry - The sentiment in the AI industry chain continued to improve, with Zhipu (02513) soaring over 17% and MiniMax (00100) increasing by over 6% [2] - China Duty Free Group (01880) rose by over 8%, with expectations for strong performance in Hainan's duty-free market during the Spring Festival [2] Group 7: Pharmaceutical Sector - Gilead Sciences, Inc. (01672) increased by 8%, with GIC investing 781 million HKD to raise its stake to 6.42% [2] Group 8: Energy Sector - Dongfang Electric Corporation (01072) rose by over 11%, benefiting from ongoing electricity shortages in North America and potential opportunities for Chinese gas turbines [2] Group 9: Resource Sector - Jiaxin International Resources (03858) increased by over 7%, with expectations of turning a profit of up to 340 million HKD last year [3] Group 10: Copper Industry - Kintor Pharmaceutical Limited (01888) rose by over 8%, with Citigroup noting that rising copper prices are expanding profit margins for copper-clad laminate manufacturers [4] Group 11: Gold Sector - WanGuo Gold International (03939) increased by over 7%, leading gold stocks as the People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months [5] Group 12: Semiconductor Sector - Zhaoyi Innovation (03986) rose by over 10%, as the company was added to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, benefiting from an upturn in the storage cycle [6]

Summary of Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the mechanical industry, focusing on AI equipment, gas turbines, and high-temperature alloy materials. - Key companies mentioned include 隆达股份 (Longda Co.), 长宝股份 (Changbao Co.), and others involved in the gas turbine and high-temperature alloy sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Gas Turbine Market Dynamics** - The U.S. government is encouraging AI companies to invest in power plants to alleviate potential electricity shortages, indicating a gradual upgrade in AI power needs. Predictions suggest a 30 to 100 times increase in power requirements by 2025, with operational hours increasing from 8 to between 270 and 800 hours [1][2]. 2. **Longda Co. Performance Expectations** - Longda Co. specializes in high-temperature alloy materials, with some models capable of withstanding temperatures up to 1600 degrees Celsius. The company anticipates exceeding performance expectations in 2025 due to strong demand and production capabilities [2][4]. - Revenue projections for high-temperature alloys are optimistic, with expectations of 1.3 billion in 2025 and 1.9 billion in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 40% to 58% [5][6]. 3. **Client Relationships and Revenue Growth** - Longda's major clients include 万泽 (Wanze) and 一流 (Yiliu), with significant revenue growth expected from these partnerships. For instance, Wanze's procurement from Longda is projected to increase from 100 million in 2024 to 1.3 billion in 2025 [7][8]. 4. **Aerospace and Environmental Segments** - The aerospace sector is also projected to grow at 20% annually over the next 3 to 5 years, with specific projects like C919 contributing to this growth [9]. - The environmental segment, particularly in HSG boilers, is highlighted as a promising area, with Longbao Co. being a key player in this market [11][12]. 5. **Market Trends and Pricing Power** - There is a noted potential for price increases in the high-temperature alloy market due to limited supply and high demand, particularly as domestic companies struggle to compete with established foreign suppliers [12][13]. 6. **Regulatory Changes and Market Opportunities** - Recent regulatory changes by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency may favor Chinese companies in the gas turbine market, as they may be able to meet ESG standards more effectively than U.S. firms [15]. 7. **Investment Opportunities** - Analysts suggest that companies like 杰瑞 (Jereh) and 一流 (Yiliu) present strong investment opportunities due to their growth potential and favorable market conditions [16][20]. 8. **Storage Equipment and Semiconductor Sector** - The storage equipment sector, particularly related to semiconductor manufacturing, is also discussed, with companies like 广钢 (Guanggang) expected to see significant growth in orders and revenue [22][23]. 9. **PCB Equipment Market** - The PCB equipment market is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of substantial growth driven by advancements in semiconductor technology and increased demand for advanced packaging solutions [29][31]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussion includes insights on the competitive landscape, with companies like 金测电子 (Jince Electronics) showing promising order growth and product advancements [26][27]. - The impact of cooling technology on the market is addressed, with a focus on the transition from traditional cooling methods to more efficient solutions, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [32][34]. - The overall sentiment is optimistic regarding the mechanical and semiconductor sectors, with analysts encouraging investment in companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends and regulatory changes [36].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the AI equipment sector, focusing on semiconductor, gas turbine, PCB equipment, and liquid cooling technologies. [1][3] Company Highlights Guanggang Gas - Expected to double new orders from 150,000 cubic meters to approximately 300,000 cubic meters by 2026, with a market capitalization projected to grow from 26 billion to between 80 billion and 100 billion [1][4] - Profit margin anticipated to rise from 10% in 2025 to 34% in the first half of the current year [4] - Actively expanding into overseas markets and developing new products like supercritical carbon dioxide [4] Gas Turbine Sector - Global gas turbine orders expected to increase from 85 GW in 2025 to over 120 GW in 2026, driven by severe electricity shortages in the U.S. [1][5] - Jie Rui is highlighted as a key player, with a potential market capitalization of over 100 billion due to shortened delivery times and strong channel capabilities [5] Gas Turbine Blade Market - Ying Liu and Wan Ze hold less than 2% of a market worth approximately 170 billion, indicating significant growth potential [6] - Improvement in yield rates from 40% to 50-60% expected, enhancing order capacity and profit margins, which currently exceed 40% [6] Lian De Co. - Projected profits for 2026 could exceed expectations, reaching between 350 million and 360 million, with a potential increase to 500 million by 2027 [9] PCB Equipment - Notable companies include Dazhu Laser, New Qiwei, and Kaige, with Dazhu Laser expected to achieve profits of 2 billion by 2026, corresponding to a market cap of 80 billion [10] Liquid Cooling Technology - Companies like Hongsheng and Ying Wei are recommended, with Ying Wei's products being more reliable and likely to enter the U.S. AI supply chain [11] Optical Communication Equipment - Aotewei is identified as a key player with significant market potential in AOI and gold wire bonding machines, with a potential revenue increase of 2 to 2.5 billion if it captures 10% market share [12] Semiconductor Industry - Huahong Semiconductor is highlighted as a key player with a favorable competitive landscape and future growth potential [13] Additional Insights - The gas turbine sector is seen as the most sustainable segment within AI equipment, with increasing demand due to electricity shortages in the U.S. [5] - The liquid cooling technology is noted for its potential to ensure operational stability in data centers, especially under extreme weather conditions [11] - The PCB equipment sector is characterized by limited investment options, making it a secondary focus compared to gas turbines and liquid cooling [3] This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the discussed companies and industry trends.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the energy sector, particularly in the context of increasing electricity demand and the transition to renewable energy sources [1][3][20]. Core Insights - The global electricity demand is entering a super cycle driven by AI, industrialization, and electrification, with significant growth expected in the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East [3][4][5]. - The U.S. electricity consumption is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.7%-4% from 2025 to 2030, primarily due to the return of manufacturing and the expansion of data centers [1][3]. - In Europe, electricity demand is expected to increase by 2.4% over the next five years, driven by industrialization and data center development [5]. - The Middle East has seen a threefold increase in electricity demand over the past 20 years, with further growth anticipated due to urbanization and industrial investments [6][7]. - China is one of the fastest-growing countries in terms of electricity demand, with a projected consumption of approximately 910 billion kWh in 2024, driven by industrial and export activities [8][9]. Summary by Sections U.S. Electricity Demand - U.S. peak load is expected to increase by 166 GW from 2026 to 2030, with data centers contributing 90 GW [4]. - Challenges in data center capacity growth include increased access difficulties and local opposition [11]. - Texas faces a potential electricity price increase due to rapid demand growth and weak grid support [13][14]. European Electricity Demand - European electricity demand is lagging behind the U.S. by 2-3 years, with a projected increase driven by industrialization and data centers [5]. - By 2030, data centers are expected to contribute 35 GW to electricity demand in Europe [5]. Middle East Electricity Demand - The Middle East's electricity demand is driven by urbanization and cooling needs, with a significant reliance on natural gas [6][7]. - Future growth in the region is expected to be fueled by infrastructure development and industrialization [7]. China Electricity Demand - China's electricity demand is expected to maintain steady growth, with industrial consumption accounting for 64% of total usage [8][9]. - The focus on enhancing the energy structure and grid investment is anticipated to support future demand [9]. Energy Storage Market - The U.S. energy storage market is experiencing strong demand, with optimistic growth projections for major companies like Tesla [19][20]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see a price increase due to tight supply and strong demand from the energy storage sector [21]. Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Canadian Solar (CSIQ) and others in the energy sector are viewed as having strong growth potential despite high valuations [29].