野村- 全球进入新瓦特时代 20251229 摘要 美国用电量增速自 2020 年起显著回升，预计 2025-2030 年 CAGR 达 3.7%-4%，主要驱动力为制造业回流和数据中心建设，数据中心用电需 求占比高达 90 吉瓦。 欧洲用电趋势滞后美国 2-3 年，未来 5 年预计增速达 2.4%，主要由工 业化、电气化和数据中心发展推动，预计到 2030 年数据中心将带来 35 吉瓦的需求。 中东地区过去 20 年用电需求增长三倍，受城镇化、制冷需求和淡水供 应驱动，天然气发电占比超 70%，新能源渗透率达 11%，数据中心建 设将进一步推高能源需求。 中国是全球电力需求增长最快的国家之一，2024 年全社会用电量约 9,100 亿度，工业用电占比 64%，2025 年前 10 个月同比增长约 10%，制造业和出口是主要驱动力。 美国数据中心主要集中在弗吉尼亚、德州和加州，但接入难度增加，项 目容量增长受限，居民反对、电网接入点紧张和矿工转型带来供需矛盾。 德州电网支撑能力较弱，但用电需求增长迅速，未来电价上涨可能性高， 华尔街对德州缺电趋势判断乐观，能源公司已积极布局。 碳酸锂市场预计 2026 年迎来 ...

燃机主线Beta 首先我们在前期文章中提到过，现在AI数据中心下半场的竞争就是电力和节能，北美缺电无疑是明 年最热的话题之一。 潜在事件驱动（本质为保证A股主线行情的延续）： ①燃机产业涨价事件 ②三大燃机巨头（西门子能源、GEV和三菱）业绩交流会对行业的需求或景气度指引超预期 ③科技大厂开电力闭门大会，提到AI电力的重要性 ⑤缺电导致数据中心项目推迟、群众喧闹、电解铝大厂停产等事件发酵 ⑥北美电价持续上涨 对于任何产业，红利爆发曲线陡峭本质就是业绩增长曲线陡峭，换算为数学维度来说不但业绩向上 一阶导足够大，向上二阶导也要足够大。 落实到实业维度来看一般会呈现以下几个特征： 1、"出货量大幅提升—行业总需求提升且企业端产能持续扩大给予满足，非降价抢占存量蛋糕" 在北美的能源结构中气电是主要发电方式（占据40%以上），那么在北美缺电作为明年最大的产业 趋势背景下，燃机全产业需求红利有望持续超预期，这不但促使资本市场持续上修全产业的EPS及业 绩增速维度PE，还会存在大量产业事件驱动情绪维度PE上升，全行业呈现戴维斯双击！ ④国内外燃机产业链企业业绩持续超预期 2、"产业价格上涨—紧缺导致的涨价，非成本上升导致的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report expresses optimism towards sectors such as nuclear fusion, engineering machinery, export chains, and robotics [1][3] - The engineering machinery sector is expected to benefit from domestic demand and infrastructure projects, with a focus on new urbanization and major transportation infrastructure [4] - The export chain is showing signs of recovery, with a positive outlook for exports in 2026, particularly in the U.S. market [4] - The robotics sector is highlighted by Tesla's plans for mass production of the Optimus Gen3 humanoid robot, with significant investments in domestic robotics projects [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Total number of listed companies in the machinery equipment industry is 632 [1] - Total share capital is 4,356.64 million shares [1] - Total sales revenue amounts to 28,958.20 billion [1] - Total profit is 2,150.95 billion [1] - The average Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is 106.85 [1] - The average stock price is 27.60 yuan [1] Performance of Relative Indices - The machinery equipment sector has shown varying performance against the CSI 300 index, with a notable increase of 34% at one point [2] Key Focus Areas - In the nuclear fusion sector, significant investments are being made, including an $863 million funding round for a startup involved in fusion technology [3] - The engineering machinery sector is currently in a low position, with key companies to watch including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion [4] - The export chain is expected to improve, with companies like Ousheng Electric and Chuanfeng Power highlighted as key players [4] - In robotics, companies such as Dongfang Precision and Anhui Heli are recommended for their advancements in the field [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The defense industry is expected to benefit from increasing geopolitical uncertainties, leading to a potential acceleration in military orders [4] - The current valuation of the military industry remains relatively high, with a PE-TTM of 67.34 times, which is at the 65.65% percentile since early 2015, down from 70.35 times two weeks ago [22][12] - The military sector has shown resilience, with a 3.84% decline in the military index over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 4.81% [12][11] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The military index decreased by 3.84% from November 10 to November 21, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased by 4.81%, resulting in an excess return of 0.97 percentage points [12] - Among the sub-sectors, ground equipment performed relatively well, with a slight increase of 0.02%, while aerospace equipment saw a decline of 7.30% [13] 2. Industry News Dynamics - Internationally, significant developments include the establishment of a new unmanned systems force by the Russian armed forces and the successful launch of a reusable heavy-lift rocket by Blue Origin [25][26] - Domestically, notable advancements include the successful launch of low-orbit satellites and the delivery of China's first manned airship [29][30] 3. Beneficiary Targets - Key companies to watch include: - Aviation: Huayin Technology, Jiachih Technology, Aero Engine Corporation of China, Western Superconducting Technologies - Overseas gas turbine supply chain: Wanzhe Co., Yingliu Co., Aerospace Technology, Triangle Defense - Commercial aerospace: Zhenlei Technology, Alliance Electronics, Guobo Electronics, Shaanxi Huada, Haige Communication [7]