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7月预览:出口反弹,政府债发力推升社融增长
HTSC· 2025-08-04 14:46
Economic Overview - In July, the industrial added value growth rate is expected to decline slightly to approximately 5.8% from June's 6.8%[1] - The total retail sales growth rate is projected to recover slightly to around 5.2% in July[2] - Urban fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to decrease to 2.6% from 2.8% in June[3] Inflation and Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to drop to around -0.2% in July, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline is projected to narrow to 3.3%[4] - Agricultural product prices show mixed trends, with pork prices rising 2.2% month-on-month but down 18.4% year-on-year[4] Trade and Exports - July exports are expected to grow by about 8% year-on-year, supported by pre-tariff exemption "rush exports"[5] - Import growth is projected to decline to -2% from June's 1.1%[5] Financing and Credit - New RMB loans in July are estimated at approximately 220 billion, lower than last year's 260 billion[6] - The total social financing (TSF) is expected to increase by about 1.3 trillion, continuing to show year-on-year growth[6]
中国经济半年报丨重磅数据接连发布 多维度带你看中国发展“节节高”
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-07-29 23:12
Group 1 - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year and the entire year [4] - The total import and export volume of goods in China increased by 2.9% year-on-year, reaching 21.79 trillion yuan, with positive growth in imports and exports in June [7] - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 52%, with over 66 million consumers purchasing more than 109 million units of 12 categories of home appliances through the old-for-new program [10] Group 2 - The postal industry in China completed a cumulative delivery volume of 104.51 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, with the express delivery business volume reaching 95.64 billion pieces, up by 19.3% [12] - The inter-regional flow of people in China exceeded 3.37 billion person-times, a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, with 13.64 million foreign visitors entering without a visa, an increase of 53.9% [14] - The tax refund sales for outbound tourists increased by 94.6% year-on-year [14]