证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 劲仔食品(003000.SZ) [Table_Author] 程丽丽 食品饮料联席首席分析师 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 收入增速转正，渠道夯实成长 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 24 日 [Table_Summary] 事件：公司 25Q3 实现收入 6.9 亿元，同比+6.55%，归母净利润 0.61 亿元， 同比-14.8%。 点评： | [Table_Profit] 重要财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 2,065 | 2,412 | 2,468 | 2,591 | 2,790 | | 增长率 YoY % | 41.3% | 16.8% | 2.3% ...

收入环比改善，魔芋打造增量。劲仔25Q3 营收同比+6.5%，环比Q2 显著改善，我们预计收入端提速与 公司持续拓展渠道，以及"京门爆肚"麻酱魔芋、京周爽爽麻脆卤花生等产品推新密切相关。当前公司小 鱼在渠道覆盖度扩展及京深海鳀鱼麻等产品升级推动下持续提升能力边界，京门爆肚"麻切入魔芋肚品 赛道，有望接力增量产品发展。渠道视角看，劲仔从流通渠道小包装起家，在丰富大包装及散称规格后 拓展商超、便利店等更多渠道布局，对比洽洽、卫龙等大单品公司，我们预计劲仔仍有充足渠道拓展空 间。 事件：公司发布2025 年三季报，前三季度实现营收18.1 亿，同比+2.1%，归母净利润1.7 亿，同 比-19.5%，扣非净利润1.4 亿，同比-25.0%。25Q3单季度营收6.8 亿，同比+6.5%，归母净利润0.6 亿， 同比-14.8%，扣非净利润0.55 亿，同比-17.8%。 短期毛利费用承压，阶段拖累盈利能力。25Q3 劲仔毛利率同比-1.1pct 至28.9%，我们预计与渠道结构 调整，量贩等新兴渠道占比提升相关。25Q3销售费用率同比+1.6pct 至13.8%，预计在渠道拓展铺市及 京门爆肚"麻等新品推广期间仍加大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.81 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 170 million yuan, a decrease of 19.5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 680 million yuan, up 6.5% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 60 million yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue growth is attributed to channel expansion and new product launches, particularly in the "Jingmen Baodu" and "Jingzhou Shuangshuang" product lines [1][2]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth rates of 3.2%, 12.5%, and 11.2% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reaching 2.49 billion, 2.80 billion, and 3.11 billion yuan [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - The gross margin for Q3 2025 decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 28.9%, attributed to changes in channel structure and increased sales expenses [2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 8.8%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, but showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement [2]. - The company’s net profit for 2025 is projected to be 249 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.6%, followed by a recovery in subsequent years with expected growth of 32.0% and 13.1% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][5].

Group 1 - The fishing season in the Bohai and Yellow Seas, under China's jurisdiction, resumed on September 1 after a four-month moratorium, with over 30,000 fishing boats setting out from major ports in Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong provinces [1] - Fishermen reported a successful first catch, with one stating they caught six to seven boxes of crabs and shrimp, indicating a positive start to the season [3] - The seafood market became lively as boats returned, with consumers eager to purchase fresh seafood, and the price of crabs was reported to be around 10 yuan per pound, which is significantly cheaper than in previous years [5][7] Group 2 - The long-standing seasonal fishing moratorium has shown significant benefits for marine resource protection, leading to an increase in the quantity of various seafood available after the fishing season resumed [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [10][16]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue at 1.12 billion yuan, down 21.86% year-on-year, and net profit at 0.87 billion yuan, down 28.94% year-on-year [4][5]. - The sales team is undergoing adjustments and reforming the assessment mechanism, leading to internal operational challenges [5]. - The company is focusing on channel construction while maintaining product category integrity and health-oriented initiatives, aiming for positive revenue growth in the second half of the year [7][9]. Company Overview - Latest closing price: 13.32 yuan - Total shares: 4.51 billion, circulating shares: 3.00 billion - Total market value: 60 billion yuan, circulating market value: 40 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 15.65/10.19 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 34.0% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 20.34 [3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from various product categories showed mixed results: fish products increased by 7.61% to 7.57 billion yuan, while quail egg products decreased by 24% to 1.96 billion yuan [5]. - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for H1 2025 were 29.45% and 9.96%, respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous year [6]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now projecting revenues of 24.37 billion, 27.02 billion, and 30.91 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.44 billion, 3.12 billion, and 3.75 billion yuan [10][12]. Strategic Focus - The company is prioritizing channel development and responding efficiently to channel demands, with a strategy to enhance the coverage of terminal outlets through refined channel operations [7]. - New product launches, particularly in the konjac category, have received positive feedback, indicating potential for growth in this segment [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to focus on high-potential BC channels in offline sales for 2025, while actively promoting membership supermarket collaborations. The volume channel is anticipated to maintain high growth through SKU expansion. Online channels are expected to improve exposure through integrated product promotion, aiming to recover performance on platforms like Douyin [5] - For Q4 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 640 million yuan (up 11.9%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 77 million yuan (up 0.3%). The annual revenue for 2024 reached 2.412 billion yuan (up 16.8%), with a net profit of 291 million yuan (up 39.0%) [6] - The company’s offline and online revenue for 2024 is expected to grow by 22.6% and decline by 6.2% respectively, with offline channels meeting the company's initial targets while online channels await the effects of reforms [6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company's gross margin was 30.99%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6 percentage points, primarily due to a 5.6% increase in anchovy costs. The overall gross margin for 2024 improved due to cost reductions and economies of scale [6] - The company’s net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 12.0%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points, while the annual net profit margin was 12.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points [6] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.757 billion yuan, 3.127 billion yuan, and 3.518 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 317 million yuan, 370 million yuan, and 431 million yuan [7][9]