乘用车 25Q2 业绩亮眼 自主高端化提速 2025 年 08 月 24 日 ➢ 周度数据：2025 年 8 月第 3 周（8.11-8.17）乘用车销量 43.7 万辆，同比 +8.2%，环比+14.2%；新能源乘用车销量 24.8 万辆，同比+15.1%，环比+13.0%； 新能源渗透率 56.7%，环比-0.6pct。 ➢ 本周行情：汽车板块本周表现强于市场。本周（8 月 18 日-8 月 22 日）A 股 汽车板块上涨 7.2%，在申万子行业中排名第 6 位，表现强于沪深 300（4.8%）。 细分板块中，商用载货车、汽车零部件、乘用车、摩托车及其他、汽车服务、商 用载客车分别上涨 8.7%、7.7%、6.9%、6.1%、3.7%、3.1%。 ➢ 本周观点：本月建议关注核心组合【吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、比亚 迪、小米集团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力】。 ➢ 乘用车企业 25Q2 业绩表现亮眼 自主高端化催化密集。本周，新势力整车 催化密集，小米、小鹏、零跑发布 25Q2 业绩，小米汽车业务毛利率从 Q1 的 23.2%提升至 26.4%，经营亏损从 5 亿元收窄至 3 亿元， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 performance met expectations, with revenue reaching 18.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6%. The automotive sales revenue was 16.88 billion yuan, up 147.6% year-on-year and 17.5% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to increased deliveries [8] - The company continues to show strong gross margin levels, with a comprehensive gross margin of 17.3% in Q2, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The vehicle gross margin reached 14.3%, also showing significant growth [8] - The company plans to optimize its model layout and enhance intelligence, with new models set to launch and advanced AI capabilities being integrated into vehicles [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 82.96 billion yuan, 149.40 billion yuan, and 222.90 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 103%, 80%, and 49% [8] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised to -1.30 billion yuan, 6.76 billion yuan, and 10.32 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.68 yuan, 3.55 yuan, and 5.41 yuan [8] - The company’s gross margin is expected to continue improving, with projections of 17.10% in 2026 and 18.51% in 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for stocks, expecting a relative return of over 20% within six months [31] - The industry investment rating is "Strong Outperform," anticipating an industry index increase of over 5% within the same timeframe [31] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant net inflow of 540.7 billion CNY into Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect program over the past week, totaling 8194.88 billion CNY year-to-date, which is 110.14% of the total net inflow for 2024 [1] - The focus is on opportunities in the AI sector, particularly following the approval of the "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan by the State Council, which aims to enhance AI commercialization and innovation [2] - The report emphasizes the potential of platform-based internet companies and AI ecosystem enterprises, recommending stocks such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and Xiaomi for their synergistic advantages in computing power and application scenarios [2] Summary by Sections AI Sector - The report notes the launch of GLM-4.5 by Zhipu, which integrates reasoning, coding, and AI capabilities, catering to complex application needs [2] - It suggests a focus on internet platform companies and AI ecosystem firms, including Fourth Paradigm, Meitu, and JD Health, among others [2] Smart Driving - The report discusses the latest software updates from Tesla and the advancements in smart driving technologies from domestic companies like Li Auto and Xpeng, indicating a turning point in high-level autonomous driving [3] - It highlights the trend of mainstream manufacturers adopting lidar technology and recommends stocks such as Xpeng, Li Auto, and Xiaomi, as well as lidar and chip suppliers like Hesai Technology and Horizon Robotics [3] Internet and Consumption - The report provides valuation metrics for major internet companies, with Tencent at a 2025 PE of 21X, Kuaishou at 17X, and Alibaba at 15X for FY26, indicating growth potential in their core businesses [3] - It also mentions the strong performance of Pop Mart, with a 2025 PE of 27X, driven by global IP expansion and seasonal sales [4] New Energy Vehicles - The report highlights the launch of new electric vehicles from Li Auto and Xpeng, with Li Auto's i8 featuring advanced charging capabilities and safety systems [9] - It notes the market's positive reaction to NIO's L90 model, which adopts an "immediate delivery" strategy, enhancing market responsiveness [8] M&A Activity - JD.com announced a voluntary public acquisition offer for German consumer electronics retailer Ceconomy at approximately 2.2 billion euros, indicating strategic expansion efforts [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, highlighting key companies to focus on, including Geely, BYD, Li Auto, and Xpeng Motors [5][17]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation in the automotive sector driven by smart and electric vehicles, suggesting that the industry is entering a new era of growth and innovation [17][19]. - The report identifies a significant increase in passenger car sales, with a total of 397,000 units sold in the third week of July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% and a month-on-month increase of 7.1% [3][47]. - The report discusses the impact of government policies aimed at stimulating demand, including subsidies for scrapping older vehicles, which are expected to support market growth [19][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Sector - The report highlights the positive outlook for passenger vehicles, driven by new model launches and government incentives, with a focus on companies like Geely, BYD, and Li Auto [19][20]. - The report notes that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's anti-involution policies are expected to alleviate cash flow pressures in the supply chain and enhance efficiency [19][3]. 2. Electric Vehicles - The report indicates a long-term acceleration in growth for smart electric vehicles, with a focus on the increasing market share of domestic brands [21][22]. - It mentions that Tesla's advancements in autonomous driving technology are expected to significantly influence the market dynamics [23][22]. 3. Robotics - The report discusses the emergence of humanoid robots and their applications in various sectors, with a focus on companies like Tesla and their plans for mass production of robots [18][24]. - It highlights the importance of hardware advancements in robotics, such as dexterous hands and lightweight materials, which are expected to drive innovation in the field [23][24]. 4. Motorcycles - The report notes a significant increase in the sales of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% in June 2025 [26][27]. - It recommends focusing on leading companies in this segment, such as Chunfeng Power, as the market continues to expand [27]. 5. Heavy Trucks - The report highlights the recovery in demand for heavy trucks, supported by government subsidies for replacing older vehicles, with a total sales volume of approximately 92,000 units in June 2025 [28][29]. - It suggests that the expansion of subsidy policies will further stimulate market growth [28]. 6. Tires - The report discusses the tire industry's growth prospects, driven by high domestic demand and the expansion of overseas production capacity [30][31]. - It recommends focusing on leading tire companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, such as Sailun Tire and high-growth companies like Senlong [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 1.2% from July 20 to July 26, with significant developments in smart connected vehicles as Shanghai issued new operational licenses for several companies [1][9]. - Key new vehicle launches include the Wanjie M8 electric version with a starting price of 378,000 yuan, and the Li Auto i8, expected to be priced between 350,000 and 400,000 yuan, set to launch on July 29 [1][32]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance was positive, with the CS automotive index rising by 1.2%, while the broader market indices also showed gains, with the Shanghai A index up by 1.7% and the Shenzhen A index up by 2.2% [2][10]. - Among the automotive sub-sectors, commercial vehicles saw the most significant weekly increase of 4.3%, while automotive services and motorcycles also experienced notable gains [13]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included Fucai Technology (+28.0%), Tianpu Co. (+23.7%), and Shenchi Electromechanical (+22.8%), while Shanghai Wumao (-18.1%) and Jiuling Technology (-10.5%) faced declines [3][18]. - Coverage of key stocks showed similar trends, with Shenchi Electromechanical leading the gains at +22.8%, followed by Guansheng Co. (+15.6%) and Jianghuai Automobile (+9.3%) [21]. Recent Industry Developments - The report highlights the rapid expansion of Li Auto's charging network, which has surpassed 2,900 stations, indicating a strong commitment to infrastructure development [27]. - Tesla reported a decline in Q2 revenue and net profit, with total revenue dropping 12% year-on-year to $22.5 billion, primarily due to decreased vehicle sales [29]. - Longhua Automobile achieved record Q2 results, with total revenue reaching 52.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.78% [30].

Core Viewpoint - UBS reviews the sales and product mix of major Chinese automakers, previewing second-quarter profits and comparing them with buyer expectations, suggesting that despite concerns over pricing pressures, corporate earnings should remain stable [1] Group 1: New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers - New energy vehicle manufacturers, including Li Auto, NIO, and Xpeng, have shown a quarter-on-quarter increase in sales and moderate improvement in product mix, with UBS expecting Li Auto's profits to grow quarter-on-quarter and NIO and Xpeng's losses to narrow [2] - NIO and Xpeng aim to achieve breakeven net profit by the fourth quarter, with UBS anticipating improved gross margins as cost controls take effect [2] - Li Auto's reduction in computing power leasing costs is expected to aid in controlling R&D expenses, with UBS believing that sales of new models are more critical than profits for these companies [2] Group 2: Traditional Automakers - UBS notes limited high-quality data on quarterly forecasts for traditional automakers but believes investor concerns about price competition are present, leading to moderate overall expectations [3] - BYD's record-high export volume, accounting for 21% of second-quarter sales, is expected to help achieve a net profit of 8,800 yuan per vehicle [3] - Great Wall Motors' high-end brands, Wei and Tank, contribute to 26% of sales, aiding in profit recovery, while Geely's complex structure complicates profit forecasts, though UBS expects earnings to be close to first-quarter levels [3] Group 3: Stock Impact - Since late May, investor sentiment has cooled due to concerns over price competition and signs of unfair competition, leading UBS to adopt a slightly more positive view on the industry [4] - UBS is optimistic about Li Auto's i8 debut at the end of July, BYD's overseas performance, and Great Wall Motors' high-end strategy, while expressing concerns about Xpeng's G7 performance amid fierce competition [4] Group 4: Li Auto (LI.0) - Li Auto delivered 111,000 vehicles in the second quarter, with the L6 model accounting for 52,000 units, representing a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 5% year-on-year increase [5] - UBS predicts a gross margin of 19.5% for Li Auto in the second quarter, slightly lower than the first quarter due to increased pricing pressure [6] - R&D expenses are estimated at 2.6 billion yuan, with sales and management expenses at 2.9 billion yuan, leading to total operating expenses of 5.5 billion yuan, which is stricter than market consensus [6] Group 5: NIO (NIO.N) - NIO delivered 72,000 vehicles in the second quarter, with the Onvo L60 model accounting for 17,000 units, resulting in a 72% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 26% year-on-year increase [7] - UBS estimates a gross margin of 12.5% for NIO, reflecting operational leverage from increased sales [8] - R&D expenses are projected at 3 billion yuan, with sales and management expenses at 4 billion yuan, leading to total operating expenses of 7 billion yuan, slightly below market consensus [8] Group 6: Xpeng (XPEV.N) - Xpeng delivered 103,000 vehicles in the second quarter, with the Mona M03 model accounting for 39,000 units, resulting in a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase and approximately 200% year-on-year increase [9] - UBS expects a gross margin of 12.0% for Xpeng, benefiting from improved product mix and a 45% quarter-on-quarter increase in export volume [9] - R&D expenses are estimated at 2 billion yuan, with sales and management expenses at 2 billion yuan, leading to total operating expenses of 4 billion yuan, aligning with market consensus [9]

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Neutral" for the next six months, indicating expected performance in line with the market [53]. Core Insights - In June, retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 18.1% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles seeing a growth of 30% [4][44]. - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 0.41% from July 7 to July 11, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points [10][44]. - The overall PE-TTM for the automotive industry as of July 11 is 25.83, down by 0.12 from the previous week [11][44]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The automotive sector's performance from July 7 to July 11 showed a decline across various segments, with the passenger vehicle segment down by 1.43% and commercial vehicles down by 0.99% [10][44]. - The automotive services sector, however, increased by 3.13%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [10][44]. Valuation Levels - As of July 11, the PE-TTM for passenger vehicles is 25.11, for commercial vehicles is 36.01, and for automotive parts is 24.33 [11][44]. - The passenger vehicle segment saw a decrease of 0.37% in valuation, while the automotive parts segment increased slightly by 0.02% [11][44]. New Models and Industry News - 尚界汽车 has released a teaser for its first SUV model, which is expected to launch in the fall of 2025 [3][44]. - A total of 29 new and updated vehicle models were launched during the week of July 7 to July 11 [40][41]. Sales Performance - In June, the total retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.084 million units, marking an 18.1% increase year-on-year [7][44]. - Cumulative retail sales for the first half of the year reached 10.901 million units, up 10.8% compared to the same period last year [7][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall decline of 0.6% from July 6 to July 12, 2025, with a notable increase in the dealer inventory warning index to 56.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 3.9 percentage points [1][2]. - New vehicle launches include the Li Auto i8, set to debut on July 29 with a starting price of 350,000 yuan, and the Leap Motor B01, which will be launched in late July with a price range of 105,800 to 135,800 yuan [1][32]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance was negative, with the CS Automotive index down by 0.6%, while the Shanghai A index rose by 1.1% and the Shenzhen A index increased by 2.0% during the same period [2][8]. - Among the automotive sub-sectors, the automotive services sector saw a weekly increase of 3.1%, while both passenger and commercial vehicle segments experienced declines of 1.4% and 1.0%, respectively [10][2]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included Changchun Yitong (+17.4%), Jiuling Technology (+14.5%), and Fosa Technology (+13.7%), while Qin'an Co. (-10.0%), Quan Feng Automotive (-9.0%), and Ningbo Fangzheng (-8.0%) faced significant declines [14][18]. - Among covered stocks, Yunyi Electric (+6.6%), Huawei Technology (+6.1%), and Zhongrong Electric (+5.8%) showed positive movements, while Qin'an Co. (-10.0%), Xinquan Co. (-6.7%), and Rongtai Co. (-5.6%) experienced losses [18][14]. Recent Industry Developments - BYD has achieved L4-level smart parking capabilities, promising full liability coverage for accidents caused by its smart parking system [25]. - Chery Automobile plans to launch two new SUV models in the UK market, enhancing its competitive presence in Europe [24]. - The report highlights strategic partnerships, including a collaboration between CATL and Geely to deepen cooperation in battery technology and supply chain management [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the sector [10][42]. Core Insights - The logistics robot production by ByteDance has exceeded 1,000 units, indicating a significant growth trajectory with over 100% year-on-year increase in production [4]. - Tesla's Q2 2025 global deliveries reached 384,122 units, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 14.09%, despite a year-on-year decline of 13.48% [5][7]. - The report emphasizes that 2025 is a pivotal year for robot application scenarios, suggesting that companies with platform-based layouts will have competitive advantages [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance in the A-share market showed a 0.2% increase, lagging behind the broader market by 1.3 percentage points [15]. - The automotive industry PE (TTM) stands at 35.3, placing it in the 50.2% percentile over the past four years [24]. Industry Data Tracking and Commentary - In June 2025, the average daily retail of passenger cars reached 9.5 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3% [36]. - The wholesale statistics for June indicated a total of 247.3 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 14% [37]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several companies based on their potential in the humanoid robot and automotive sectors, including: - Shuanglin Co., Ltd. (300100.SZ) with a projected EPS of 1.24 for 2024 and a "Buy" rating [10]. - Leadrick (300652.SZ) with a projected EPS of 1.22 for 2024 and a "Buy" rating [10]. - Jianghuai Automobile (600418.SH) with a projected EPS of 0.12 for 2024 and a "Buy" rating [10]. Company Announcements and Industry News - The establishment of a joint venture by Baolong Technology to develop active suspension systems, indicating strategic moves in the automotive technology space [45]. - CATL's battery joint venture in Indonesia is set to produce 15 GWh of batteries, supporting the electric vehicle market [50].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies, including Changan Automobile, Asia-Pacific Holdings, and Haon Electric, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the overall automotive industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector experienced a slight increase of 0.1% from June 30 to July 4, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.44 percentage points. The passenger vehicle segment rose by 0.43%, while commercial vehicles increased by 1.49% [9][36]. - Heavy-duty truck sales in June 2025 exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 32% and a month-on-month increase of 6%. Approximately 94,000 units were sold, with major manufacturers like China National Heavy Duty Truck and Dongfeng showing significant growth [2][36]. - The report highlights the launch of the Xiaopeng G7, the first AI car with L3-level computing power, priced between 195,800 and 225,800 yuan, showcasing advanced technology features [5][36]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive sector's performance from June 30 to July 4, 2025, showed a 0.1% increase, with various segments performing differently against the CSI 300 index [9][36]. - The overall PE-TTM for the automotive industry was 25.95, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [10][36]. Major Company and Industry Events - Heavy-duty truck sales in June reached approximately 94,000 units, with significant contributions from major manufacturers [2][36]. - Xiaopeng G7 was officially launched, marking a significant advancement in AI automotive technology [5][36]. New Vehicle Launches - A total of 33 new models were launched during the week, including the Xiaopeng G7 and various updated versions of existing models [34][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment in the automotive sector, given the mixed performance of different segments and the overall market conditions [36].