2026 年 01 月 12 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 小鹏比亚迪多款新车上市，工信部公示 403 批 新车 ——汽车行业周报 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2026/01/09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车 | | 7.2% | -0.4% | 31.3% | | 沪深 | 300 | 3.5% | 1.0% | 25.9% | 相关报告 《汽车行业周报：2026 年汽车报废/置换更新补贴 继续实施，多家车企公布 2025 年 12 月销量（推荐） *汽车*戴畅》——2026-01-06 《汽车事件点评：以旧换新政策落地，看好 2026Q1 乘用车需求修复（推荐）*汽车*戴畅，胡惠民，徐 鸣爽》——2026-01-04 《汽车行业周报：吉利汽车与极氪整合完成，多地 部署 2026"新国补"（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》—— 2025-12-28 《汽车行业 2026 年度投资策略报告：不 ...

小鹏汽车 20260109 摘要 小鹏汽车 2026 年产品策略重大调整，一改往年发布会仅推一款新车的 惯例，计划自 4 月起陆续推出四款全新 SUV 车型，预示其在 SUV 市场 的大力投入。 小鹏汽车全面替换英伟达芯片，转而使用自研图灵芯片，并在一季度推 送第二代 VLA 大模型，二季度逐步覆盖所有车型，旨在通过技术手段降 低成本，提升产品竞争力。 面对国内终端市场补贴减少导致购车成本上涨的挑战，小鹏汽车通过自 研芯片降低硬件成本，并注重提升产品配置，而非单纯依赖价格竞争。 小鹏汽车 2026 年销量目标为 60 万辆，一季度目标为月均销量 3 万辆， 下半年重心转向 Robotaxi 和机器人量产，预计三季度在广州试运营 Robotaxi 服务，海外出口成为重要增长点。 小鹏汽车 SKU 增加源于芯片替换，油电同价策略旨在推广增程版车型， 提升用户体验。定价策略较为克制，终端反馈有待观察。 市场环境收紧，补贴减少，小鹏汽车能否在未来三个月内实现月均 3 万 辆的销量目标，取决于新车型在终端市场的反馈。 Robotaxi 领域的发展趋势将成为影响小鹏汽车股价的关键因素。预计 2026 年下半年，小鹏汽车股 ...

何小鹏：今年规模量产人形机器人 阿里云发布多模态交互开发套件 「全球首款」可量产全固态电池遭质疑 阶跃星辰端到端语音模型完成全球首秀 京东回应成立「变色龙业务部」 智谱 CEO：实现 AGI 是终极目标 荣耀 Magic8 Pro Air 曝光 可以科技发布全球首款桌面 AI 伙伴 一加 Turbo 6 系列正式发布 小米 2025 千万技术大奖颁发 Google 系市值 7 年来首次超过苹果 贾跃亭携新车亮相 CES：很快回国 被小米辞退 4 个月后，王腾官宣成立新公司 海底捞「小便门」当事人登报道歉 迪士尼或入局竖屏视频内容 何小鹏：今年规模量产人形机器人 昨日，小鹏汽车举行「2026 小鹏全球新品发布会」。 会上，何小鹏透露，2026 年，小鹏汽车将迎来物理 AI 的落地与规模量产，正式开启从技术探索向实践应用的关键跨越： 2026 年第一季度第二代 VLA 上车；2026 年开启运营 Robotaxi；2026 年规模量产人形机器人；2026 年规模量产飞行汽车。 在去年 11 月，小鹏在科技日活动上展示了最新一代人形机器人 IRON。该机器人在舞台上走「猫步」如人一样轻盈，因此引发互联网一阵猜疑，不 ...

Q&A 小鹏汽车在 2026 年的整体定位和市场预期是什么？ 摘要 小鹏汽车预计 2026 年销量达 60 万台，国内市场增长约 10 万台，海外 市场贡献约 1.5 万台。公司预计国内汽车总量将下滑 3%左右，但新能 源车市场份额将增长 5-6 个百分点。 预计 2026 年小鹏汽车整体毛利率将提升，主要受益于大众业务的盈利 贡献。尽管补贴政策变化可能导致降价，但通过商务降本和海外销售， 有望维持毛利率稳定。全年利润预估约为 25 亿人民币，大众业务贡献 主要利润。 小鹏汽车计划明年一季度陆续上市 G7、G6 及 P7+增程车型，二、三季 度推出大众 SUV、摩纳 SUV 等四款新车型，其中三款将推出 Robotaxi 版本，预计二季度量产 Robotaxi，下半年在广州试运营。 小鹏汽车当前市值约 1,400 亿港币，预计 2026 年底市值可达 3,000 亿 港币，增长主要来源于大众与 Robotaxi 业务。公司在智能驾驶技术、 电耗控制及整车架构平台化方面具有显著优势。 预计增程式电动车（EREV）渗透率将从今年下半年的 6-10%提升至 10-15%。多家厂商将增程技术应用于更低价位车型，并搭载 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In November 2025, the company delivered 36,728 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 12.6%. Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, the total deliveries reached 392,000 units, up 155.5% year-on-year [2][4]. - The launch of the new X9 extended-range model has led to a rapid increase in deliveries, with November deliveries for the X9 increasing by 161% month-on-month. The model has gained significant popularity, with over 50% of orders coming from northern regions [6]. - The company is expected to deliver between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, which would represent a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3%. Projected revenue for this period is estimated to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November 2025, the company delivered 36,728 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 18.9% and a month-on-month decline of 12.6%. Total deliveries from January to November reached 392,000 units, marking a 155.5% increase year-on-year [2][4]. New Product Launches - The new X9 extended-range model has been well-received, with November deliveries increasing by 161% month-on-month. The model set a record for daily orders shortly after its launch, indicating strong market demand [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a strong sales cycle driven by new product launches and advancements in AI technology. The expected revenue for 2025 is projected at 76.9 billion HKD, with a price-to-sales ratio of 1.9X, supporting the "Buy" rating [6].

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors collaborates with Huawei to develop the next-generation range extender technology, featuring the Huawei DriveONE integrated high-voltage oil-cooled generator as a core component for the Xiaopeng X9 Super Range Extender [2][4]. Group 1: Collaboration and Technology Development - Xiaopeng Motors and Huawei have accelerated their partnership, with two significant collaborations since 2025, focusing on groundbreaking automotive technologies [4]. - The first collaboration involved the launch of the AR-HUD (Augmented Reality Head-Up Display) technology, debuting in the Xiaopeng G7 model [4]. Group 2: Technical Challenges and Solutions - Xiaopeng Motors' Vice President Gu Jie stated that traditional range extender systems could not meet the performance requirements for the next-generation large seven-seater vehicles [6]. - The Xiaopeng X9 Super Range Extender, built on an 800V ultra-high-voltage platform, utilizes a 63.3 kWh ultra-fast charging lithium iron phosphate battery, demanding higher standards for volume and efficiency [8]. - The collaboration with Huawei addresses four key challenges: space, efficiency, range extension power capability, and consistency in driving experience, as well as vehicle NVH (Noise, Vibration, and Harshness) matching [8]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The Huawei DriveONE generator achieves a power density of 1.88 kW/kg, surpassing industry standards by 40%, and is paired with a 1.5T efficient range extender to deliver a maximum power output of 85 kW, ensuring ample power in high-load scenarios [8]. Group 4: Future Directions - Huawei plans to increase investments in vehicle performance capabilities, aiming to enhance intelligent driving assistance and vehicle control systems [10]. - The vehicle performance capability is seen as foundational for the proliferation and enhancement of intelligent driving assistance, with future products focusing on extreme capabilities and safety records [13].

Group 1: Apple CEO Transition - There are no signs indicating that Tim Cook will step down as Apple's CEO, despite reports suggesting a succession plan may be in place for as early as next year [1][2] - Analyst Mark Gurman believes the timing for Cook's departure is not mature and that he is fully qualified to decide his own future [1][2] - Since taking over in 2011, Cook has led Apple to a market valuation increase from approximately $350 billion to over $4 trillion [1] Group 2: iPhone Air Sales Performance - iPhone Air sales have only reached about one-third of Apple's highest expectations, leading to a production plan cut by half shortly after its launch [2] - The product page for iPhone Air attracted 1 million views in its release month, a 28% increase from the previous year, but its conversion rate was about one-third lower than other models [2] - In China, iPhone Air is reported to be the worst-selling model in the 17 series, as consumers prefer other models [2] Group 3: OpenAI Talent Acquisition - OpenAI is aggressively recruiting from Apple's hardware engineering team, having hired over 40 employees in the past month, many of whom hold senior positions [4] - The talent acquisition includes engineers from various fields such as camera engineering, iPhone hardware, and industrial design [4] - Apple's internal response to OpenAI's recruitment efforts has been one of concern, viewing it as a significant challenge [4] Group 4: AI Market Insights - AMD's CEO Lisa Su expressed confidence in the expanding AI market, predicting it will reach $1 trillion annually by 2030, and emphasized the risks of under-investment [8] - Su noted a shift in demand from training large language models to inference tasks, which require less computational power, and AMD is positioning itself to capitalize on this trend [8] Group 5: Xiaomi's Clarification on Incident - Xiaomi clarified that a recent fire incident in its automotive battery production line was due to a minor operational error during equipment debugging, not a design flaw [3] - The fire was quickly extinguished, with no injuries reported, and the company reassured that all battery packs meet national standards [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with total revenue reaching 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [8] - The automotive sales revenue was 18.05 billion yuan, up 105.3% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter, driven by the growth in new model deliveries [8] - The net loss for Q3 narrowed to 380 million yuan from 480 million yuan in Q2, with a non-GAAP net loss of 150 million yuan [8] - The overall gross margin improved to 20.1%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8] - The company is advancing its AI business across four dimensions, including smart driving, Robotaxi, robotics, and flying cars, with clear implementation timelines [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 78.5 billion, 140.2 billion, and 201.0 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 92%, 79%, and 43% respectively [8] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised to -1.4 billion, 5.4 billion, and 9.5 billion yuan [8] - The EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be -0.71, 2.81, and 4.99 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26 and 15 times for 2026 and 2027 respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In October 2025, the company delivered 42,013 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 75.7% and a month-on-month increase of 1.0% [2][4]. - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, the company delivered 355,000 new vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 190.0% [2][4]. - The company is expected to see steady sales growth driven by strong new vehicle cycles, enhanced marketing systems, and ongoing improvements in smart driving technology [2][9]. - The new models MONA M03 and P7+ are expected to initiate a new vehicle cycle for the company [9]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - October 2025 saw a record monthly delivery of over 40,000 vehicles, with significant contributions from the new P7 model and strong sales of the SUV family [9]. - The MONA M03 model alone delivered over 15,000 units in October, with total deliveries exceeding 200,000 since its launch [9]. Future Outlook - For Q3 2025, the company anticipates deliveries between 113,000 and 118,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 142.8% to 153.6% [9]. - Expected revenue for Q3 2025 is projected to be between 19.6 billion and 21 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 94.0% to 107.9% [9]. Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its international presence, having entered seven new markets in Europe, Asia, and Africa, transitioning from rapid expansion to solid operations [9]. - The upcoming launch of the next-generation extended-range product, the X9, is anticipated to enhance the company's competitive edge with its unique features [9].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is witnessing a significant shift from LiDAR-based systems to pure vision-based systems for autonomous driving, with companies like Xpeng leading this transition, which has drawn attention from industry leaders like Elon Musk [1][4][5]. Group 1: Transition from LiDAR to Vision - Xpeng is currently the only major automaker transitioning from LiDAR to a pure vision approach, which is a notable reason for Musk's humorous response [5]. - The decision to remove LiDAR from Xpeng's vehicles is based on the belief that advanced AI systems can operate effectively using only visual data, as LiDAR data cannot be integrated into their new AI models [7][15]. - Xpeng's AI Eagle Eye system has demonstrated significant computational power, with models like the G7 achieving 2200 TOPS, which supports complex tasks necessary for autonomous driving [11][32]. Group 2: Computational Power and AI - The computational requirements for pure vision systems are substantial, as they must process large volumes of data from cameras to perform tasks like lane keeping and object recognition [11][12]. - The evolution of AI algorithms, from CNN to Transformer models, necessitates high computational power to ensure smooth operation of advanced driving systems [11][15]. - Xpeng's previous use of LiDAR was primarily to compensate for earlier computational limitations, but advancements have allowed them to confidently move to a vision-only approach [12][32]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives on LiDAR - Many domestic brands continue to favor LiDAR due to its superior performance in challenging lighting conditions, which enhances safety and reliability in autonomous driving [18][19]. - The integration of LiDAR has been shown to reduce accident rates significantly, reinforcing its value in safety-critical applications [20]. - Despite the trend towards vision systems, the automotive industry is likely to see a coexistence of both LiDAR and vision technologies, as each has its unique advantages [32]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Consumer Preferences - Consumers prioritize the overall driving experience and safety features over the specific technologies used, indicating that the market will reward effective solutions regardless of the underlying technology [31]. - The ongoing competition between LiDAR and vision-based systems reflects a broader technological evolution, with the ultimate goal of providing the best consumer experience [32].