证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 25 日 猪肉供过于求局面加剧，猪价继续下跌 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 26 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：8 月 19 日，农业农村部种植业管理司会同全国农 业技术推广服务中心在广西南宁召开全国秋粮作物中后期重大 病虫害防控现场会，组织主产省份观摩重大病虫害绿色防控作 业现场，邀请行业专家重点讲解水稻和玉米病虫害发生规律及 绿色防控技术，动员安排秋粮作物重大病虫害防控工作。会议 指出，秋粮产量占全年粮食产量的四分之三，要完成今年粮食 产量 1.4 万亿斤左右的目标任务，关键看秋粮。把好秋粮病虫 害防控关，对夺取全年粮食丰收意义重大。当前，受降雨偏多 等不利因素影响，秋粮重大病虫害发生重于上年，监测防控任 务仍较为艰巨。8—9 月份是秋粮产量形成的关键时期，也是病 虫害多发重发期。各地要高度重视，突出重点、分类指导、科 学防控，抓住主要作物、重点区域、重大病虫和关键环节，全 力以赴推进"虫口夺粮"保秋粮丰收行动。在粮食安全背景 下，转基因技术在提升单产方面具有革命性作用，我们判断 ...

"媒体+"引爆遂 溪江洪开渔周！ 千帆竞发共赴鲜 味之约_南方+_ 南方plus "我宣布，遂溪 江洪开海！" 海螺号角齐鸣， 鞭炮声此起彼 伏，仙裙岛上彩 烟齐放，渔船扬 帆起航，缓缓驶 向北部湾，开启 新一轮的耕海牧 渔之旅。经过3 个半月的休养生 息，12时，位于 湛江市遂溪县西 南部的江洪渔港 正式开海。 随着开渔令发出，渔船依次驶出江洪渔港，奔向北部湾 8月16日上 午，"媒体+"赋 能"百千万工 程"暨2025年广 东遂溪（江洪） 开渔文旅周开渔 仪式在江洪渔港 码头举办。活动 由遂溪县农业农 村局、遂溪县文 化广电旅游体育 局指导，遂溪县 江洪镇人民政府 主办，广州市越 秀区驻江洪镇帮 镇扶村乡村振兴 工作队、南方农 村报社、江洪海 洋艺术团、椰林 海鲜码头协办。 本次活动是媒体 +赋能乡村振兴 的生动实践，广 东率先推出 的"媒体+"模 式，正在从陆及 海，掀起新一轮 的乡村振兴热 潮。本次活动 以"节"为媒、 以"媒"为桥、 以"产"为核，通 过全媒体传播链 条，做强海洋产 一大早，整装待 发的渔船在海面 上整齐列阵，码 头彩旗猎猎，海 风吹来阵阵咸 味。人潮涌动 中，锣鼓阵阵， 《瑞狮纳福 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's agricultural and fishery product exports are experiencing significant growth, with a target to reach 5 trillion yen by 2030, necessitating an increase in rice exports and diversification of markets [2][7]. Group 1: Export Growth by Country - Exports to the United States increased by 22%, reaching 141 billion yen, with scallops, green tea, and yellowtail showing notable growth [4]. - Exports to China amounted to 90.2 billion yen, primarily driven by roundwood and Japanese sake, reflecting a 15% increase [4]. - Exports to South Korea grew by 22.3%, reaching 50.7 billion yen, focusing on instant coffee and beer [4]. Group 2: Product-Specific Export Increases - Scallops led the increase with an additional 10.9 billion yen, followed by green tea, which rose by 10.4 billion yen, popular in Europe and Southeast Asia [5]. - Japanese sake exports to mainland China and Hong Kong increased by 2.4 billion yen [5]. - Overall, 19 product categories set historical records for export growth [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Goals - The U.S. tariff policy under the Trump administration has led to concerns about increased costs and competitiveness for Japanese products, particularly in the second half of the year [7]. - The Japanese government aims to increase rice production and exports, with rice exports growing by 22.6% to 6.775 billion yen, although it only represents 1.3% of total agricultural exports [7]. - The government is also focusing on enhancing production efficiency and expanding market access to boost overall agricultural exports [11].

Core Viewpoint - China has resumed the import of Japanese seafood products, excluding those from 10 specific prefectures, following the approval from the General Administration of Customs [1][3]. Group 1: Import Resumption Details - The General Administration of Customs of China has approved the import of 449 types of seafood from Japan, including scallops, tuna, and squid [1]. - The resumption of imports is part of the procedures initiated after the Chinese government announced on July 6 that it would lift the ban on Japanese seafood due to the discharge of treated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant [1][3]. - The approved imports are limited to seafood from 37 prefectures in Japan, explicitly excluding products from Fukushima and Tokyo, among others [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Requirements - Japanese exporters are required to submit certificates of radioactive material testing and certificates of origin issued by Japanese government agencies before exporting to China [1]. - The Chinese government has mandated that each batch of exported products must undergo radioactive material testing and include safety certifications [3]. Group 3: Historical Context - The ban on seafood imports from the 10 specified prefectures has been in place since the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, which also included a comprehensive ban on all food imports from these areas [3]. - The decision to resume imports follows a consensus reached between the Chinese and Japanese governments in May regarding the restoration of trade [3].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The planting industry chain is progressing well, with 1.29 million acres of summer grain wheat harvested as of May 30, 2025, which is over 30% of the total expected harvest. Regions such as Hubei, Sichuan, and South China have completed their wheat harvests, while Anhui has surpassed 80% and Henan over 60% [1][9] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the importance of tracking weather changes and preparing for emergency harvesting to ensure timely collection of mature wheat. The commercialization of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key varieties [1][9] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of external three-way cross pigs is 14.39 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.36%. The number of breeding sows is 40.38 million, showing a slight decrease [2][10] - The report suggests that while short-term consumer demand is recovering, supply remains relatively loose. However, due to slow recovery in production capacity in 2024, pig prices are expected to exceed expectations in the second half of 2025 [2][10] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - As of May 30, 2025, 1.29 million acres of summer grain wheat have been harvested, with significant progress in various provinces. The upcoming rainfall is beneficial for soil conditions and will facilitate mechanized sowing [1][9] - The Ministry of Agriculture will focus on ensuring the timely harvesting of wheat and improving mechanization to enhance yield [1][9] - Recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [1][9] Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is 14.39 CNY/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week. The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, while slaughtering volume has increased significantly year-on-year [2][10] - The report highlights the need to monitor cost improvements and suggests stocks such as Dekang Animal Husbandry, Jinke Intelligent Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods for potential investment [2][10] Market Performance - The agricultural sector index increased by 1.79% during the week of May 26 to May 30, 2025, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component [11][12] - The top-performing sub-sectors include aquaculture and livestock farming, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural market [11][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the thriving scallop farming industry in Qinhuangdao's Beidaihe New District, emphasizing the importance of this period for seedling cultivation and the expected revenue growth for local fishermen [1] - The Beidaihe New District has over 82 kilometers of coastline and more than 200,000 acres of usable sea area, primarily dedicated to raft-style scallop farming, with a focus on high-quality fishery development through ecological restoration and industrial restructuring [1][2] - Four units in the Beidaihe New District have been approved as national-level marine ranch demonstration zones, with a total sea area of 28,900 acres and an investment of 140 million yuan, contributing to the release of over 50 million various seedlings [1][2] Group 2 - The marine ranch in Beidaihe New District serves as both a "blue granary" for fishery development and an important platform for ecological restoration, significantly enhancing biodiversity in previously depleted sea areas [2] - The construction of artificial reefs and the introduction of diverse marine seedlings have led to a 30% coverage of algae and a recovery of fishery resources to 3.2 times the levels of 2015, with the reappearance of species like Chinese shrimp and flatfish [2] - The marine ranch has created stable biological habitats, benefiting economic shellfish species such as scallops, sea cucumbers, and abalone, resulting in a win-win situation for ecological benefits and industrial development [2] Group 3 - The next steps for Qinhuangdao involve prioritizing ecology and upgrading industries, promoting the integration of "marine + tourism" and "fishing + leisure" to transform traditional fishery farming areas into modern marine ranches that combine ecological restoration, resource enhancement, and industrial integration [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant role of agricultural technology innovation in modernizing agriculture, emphasizing the importance of enhancing the innovation ecosystem and supporting agricultural self-sufficiency [11] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of pigs is currently fluctuating around 14.5-15 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease observed this week [12] - The report suggests that the commercialization of genetically modified crops will accelerate, which is expected to improve self-sufficiency in key varieties [11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and other departments have issued an implementation opinion to enhance the agricultural technology innovation system, focusing on eight key tasks [11] - Companies like Beidahuang and Su-Kun Agricultural Development are expected to benefit from these initiatives [11] Pig Farming - The average price of external three yuan pigs is 14.80 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week change of -0.05% [12] - The number of breeding sows is 40.39 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.66% [12] - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, such as Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [12] Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the planting sector include Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Qianyuan High-Tech [11] - In the pig farming sector, companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and Haida Group are highlighted for their potential benefits [12] - The report also mentions companies in the animal health sector, such as Jinhai Biological and Zhongmu Co., which are expected to gain from market trends [12]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant role of agricultural technology innovation in modernizing agriculture, emphasizing the need for a structured and collaborative innovation system [11] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency in key varieties [11] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of pigs is currently fluctuating around 14.5-15 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease observed [12] - The report suggests that while short-term consumer demand is recovering, supply remains relatively loose, but prices may exceed expectations in the second half of 2025 due to slow recovery in production capacity [12] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and other departments have issued an implementation opinion to enhance the agricultural technology innovation system, focusing on eight key tasks [11] - The report identifies potential beneficiaries in the planting sector, including Beidahuang and Su-Kun Agricultural Development, and recommends leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [11] 2. Pig Farming - The average price of external three yuan pigs is 14.80 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week change of -0.05% [12] - As of March 2025, the number of breeding sows in China is 40.39 million, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous month [12] - The report forecasts that pig prices may exceed expectations in the latter half of 2025 due to slow recovery in production capacity [12] 3. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies in the pig farming sector include Jingji Zhino, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [12] - In the feed sector, Haida Group is highlighted, while companies in the animal health sector such as Jinhai Biological, Bio-Stock, and Placo are expected to benefit [12] 4. Market Performance - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.99% during the week, with notable gains in the aquaculture and planting sectors [14] - The report provides detailed tracking of key agricultural product prices, including corn, wheat, and soybeans, indicating price trends and changes [24][27][38]

Group 1 - The upcoming fishing moratorium starting May 1 will lead to a peak in seafood purchases in Lianyungang, with abundant supplies of live seafood like hairtail, pomfret, and blue crab, while prices remain stable [1] - Lianyungang, with over 1,600 fishing vessels, will enter a four-and-a-half-month fishing moratorium aimed at protecting the spawning and growth of economically important fish species, resulting in a significant reduction in live seafood availability post-moratorium [1] - Recent data indicates that the fishing moratorium has successfully restored fish resources by over 30% and increased the average length of catches by 15% [1] Group 2 - Despite the reduction in live seafood during the moratorium, Lianyungang's aquaculture area exceeds 700,000 acres, producing over 800,000 tons of aquatic products annually, with species like oysters and white shrimp making up nearly half of the production [2] - Innovations in aquaculture techniques, such as triploid oyster breeding and seawater-freshwater mixed farming, have led to continuous improvements in the quality and yield of local aquaculture products [2] - The fishing moratorium not only aids in marine resource recovery but also promotes the transformation of the fishing industry towards ecological aquaculture and recreational fishing, supporting sustainable development [2]