以下文章来源于底线思维 ，作者大伊万 底线思维 . 观察者网时评专栏 本文来自微信公众号： 底线思维 ，作者：大伊万，题图来自：视觉中国 根据印度港口、航运和水道部 （MoPSW） 的消息，该扶持计划的核心意图，是通过改善造船业的 长期融资渠道，支持新建船厂，提升技术能力和构筑法律保障等，提振印度的造船能力。 近日，印度政府宣布了一项总额为7000亿卢比 （约80亿美元） 的造船业扶持计划，试图复刻20世纪 80年代"马鲁蒂-铃木" （Maruti-Suzuki） 式的印资－外资合作机制，目标直指让印度在2030年进入 世界造船业前十、在2047年进入世界造船业前五的行列，可谓雄心勃勃。 然而，这一宏伟目标的实现并非坦途。 印度造船业：曾经辉煌 自印度独立以来，印度造船业发展十分缓慢。印度产船舶长期处于水平低，吨位小的阶段。仅仅在本 世纪的最初十年，借助全球化步伐，印度造船业迎来过一个还算不错的发展时期，船舶出口总额也一 度从不到1亿美元猛然膨胀到11亿美元。但即便在印度造船业最繁荣的2011年，其占世界造船市场的 比重也仅有3.7%，此后便开始逐渐下降。 就印度造船业的现状而言，只能说"潜力较大"吧。202 ...

近日，印度政府宣布了一项总额为7000亿卢比（约80亿美元）的造船业扶持计划，试图复刻20世纪80年 代"马鲁蒂-铃木"（Maruti-Suzuki）式的印资－外资合作机制，目标直指让印度在2030年进入世界造船 业前十、在2047年进入世界造船业前五的行列，可谓雄心勃勃。 然而，这一宏伟目标的实现并非坦途。 那么，莫迪政府此次宣布的、总额约为7000亿卢比（实为6972.5亿）的造船业扶持计划，包括了哪些内 容？计划的总体可行性如何呢？ 根据印度港口、航运和水道部（MoPSW）的消息，该扶持计划的核心意图，是通过改善造船业的长期 融资渠道，支持新建船厂，提升技术能力和构筑法律保障等，提振印度的造船能力。 在这一总体思路之下，印度意图通过如下几个方面来整体提升造船业能力： 第一部分是船舶建造财政援助计划（SBFAS），为造船厂提供直接的财政支持，总金额为2473.6亿卢比 （约为198亿元人民币）。根据披露信息，该计划将执行到2036年3月。根据相关信息披露，计划中规 定，价值低于100亿卢比的船舶将获得15%的补贴，而超过这一门槛的船舶将获得20%的补贴。此外， 如果环保型船舶包括30%的本土附加值的话，将 ...

新华社柏林9月25日电（记者李函林）作为欧洲经济"火车头"的德国，已连续两年陷入衰退。德国 政府近期大幅加码军工产业投资，以此为疲弱的国家经济注入强心针。 在政策引导下，德国军工产业迎来一波投资和扩张热潮。不过，专家提醒，防务投入对经济的拉升 作用有其局限性，难以成为经济复苏的主引擎。 2024年5月17日，一架飞机在位于柏林的德国科技博物馆航空展区展出。新华社记者任鹏飞摄 迎来历史机遇 长期依赖出口的德国经济近年来遭遇能源价格冲击、产业转型滞后等多重困难，下行趋势明显。德 国联邦统计局9月5日公布的数据显示，德国7月工业新订单环比下降2.9%，为连续第3个月下滑。慕尼 黑经济研究所等机构的秋季预测纷纷下调对2025年德国经济增长预期。 作为支柱产业，德国汽车制造业电动化转型迟缓，汽车销量持续下滑。宝马、奔驰、大众等主要车 企财报显示，2025年上半年车企利润普遍大幅下滑。美国出台高关税政策也严重冲击市场外部环境，今 年1月至7月德国对美出口顺差降至2021年以来同期最低水平。 在社会层面，二战后德国政界和民间普遍对军国主义保持警惕，对扩军增支争议颇大，这种氛围也 抑制了军工产业的发展速度。 不过，这种情况在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Germany, as the economic "locomotive" of Europe, has been in recession for two consecutive years, prompting the government to significantly increase investment in the defense industry to stimulate the weak economy [1][3]. Economic Context - Germany's economy, heavily reliant on exports, has faced multiple challenges including energy price shocks and slow industrial transformation, leading to a clear downward trend [3]. - The Federal Statistical Office reported a 2.9% month-on-month decline in new industrial orders in July, marking the third consecutive month of decline [3]. - Major automotive manufacturers like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen have reported significant profit declines for the first half of 2025 due to slow electrification and external pressures such as high tariffs from the U.S. [3]. - The German government has approved a total budget of €520.5 billion for the fiscal year 2026, with a defense budget of €82.7 billion, a 32% increase from the previous fiscal year [3]. Defense Industry Investment - The German defense ministry plans to submit over 60 orders by the end of 2025, including a new generation "European fighter jet" project with a budget of €3 to €5 billion and the "Puma" infantry fighting vehicle project costing around €10 billion [5]. - The defense industry is seen as a crucial component of Germany's economic resilience and is expected to play a significant role in economic recovery [5]. Industry Challenges - The German defense industry has been in a state of contraction since the end of the Cold War, with military spending as a percentage of GDP dropping from 2.5% in 1990 to 1.4% in 2020, leading to reduced production capacity and a loss of technical personnel [5]. - Germany remains competitive in traditional sectors like tank and submarine manufacturing but lags in emerging fields such as stealth fighters and drones due to lower R&D investment compared to other military powers [5]. Market Dynamics - Germany's military spending has increased for three consecutive years, making it the fourth-largest military spender globally in 2024 [8]. - Rheinmetall, a major defense manufacturer, has seen its stock price rise nearly 2000% over the past five years, with 80% of its revenue now coming from defense [8]. - Demand for products from ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, including submarines and frigates, has surged, with projected sales of approximately €2.1 billion for the 2023-2024 fiscal year, a 16.7% increase from the previous year [9]. Employment and Economic Impact - The German Employment Research Institute predicts that the upward trend in the defense industry will continue for years, potentially creating up to 200,000 jobs [13]. - However, some economists express caution regarding the potential of defense spending to significantly boost the economy, citing the need for government borrowing rather than tax increases to fund military expansion [15]. - The economic multiplier effect of military spending is relatively low, with estimates suggesting that every €1 spent on defense only generates about €0.50 in economic activity, compared to higher multipliers for infrastructure and education investments [16].

Core Viewpoint - The German Ministry of Defense has expressed intentions to order six frigates, but the company has informed them of delays in the process [1] Group 1 - The German Ministry of Defense is planning to procure six frigates [1] - The company responsible for the frigates has communicated that there are existing delays [1]

Group 1 - Turkey's President Erdogan has ordered the acceleration of medium-range missile production to strengthen the domestic defense industry amid ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel [1] - The decision comes as Israel and Iran engage in their fifth consecutive day of clashes, raising concerns about the potential spillover of conflict into other oil-rich Middle Eastern countries [1] - Erdogan emphasized the need to enhance missile stockpiles to a level that provides deterrence, reflecting Turkey's ongoing commitment to developing an autonomous defense industry [1] Group 2 - Erdogan highlighted the increasing threat and hostility from Israeli aggression in the Middle East, warning that actions not grounded in reality could sow future discord [2] - The relationship between Turkey and Israel has deteriorated since the outbreak of the Gaza conflict in October 2023, with Erdogan criticizing Israeli military actions against Palestinian civilians [2] - Turkey remains vigilant regarding Israeli military operations in the region, with Erdogan's nationalist allies viewing these actions as security threats [2] Group 3 - Turkey's defense industry has capabilities to produce fighter jets, tanks, high-altitude drones, and frigates, with missile development now being a key focus for both domestic needs and export markets [1] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and reduced U.S. support for Ukraine have pressured European countries to increase defense spending, creating trade opportunities for Turkey [1] - Erdogan expressed hope for establishing a defense capability that deters any country from provocation in the near future [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Danish government plans to increase military activities in Greenland and the Arctic during the summer, including the deployment of F-16 fighter jets, helicopters, and a frigate [1] Military Activities - Denmark will enhance its military presence in Greenland, with F-16 fighter jets patrolling the west coast of the island this summer [1] - Two helicopters and a frigate will also be deployed as part of the increased military activities [1] Security Policy - Vivian Motzfeldt, an official responsible for foreign affairs in the Greenlandic government, stated that the security policy situation necessitates the Danish Defense Forces to train and operate in Greenland and its surrounding areas [1]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia is evaluating the feasibility of procuring Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets to enhance its air force's modern combat capabilities while considering cost-effectiveness in defense spending [1]. Group 1: Procurement Considerations - The Indonesian Deputy Minister of Defense, Taufanto, indicated that the performance of the J-10 during the India-Pakistan conflict is a significant factor in considering this aircraft model [1]. - The J-10 fighter jet is competitively priced compared to similar Western aircraft, aligning with Indonesia's demand for "high cost-performance advanced equipment" [1]. - Indonesia is currently reviewing the compatibility of the J-10 with existing defense systems, after-sales support, and specific procurement terms [1]. Group 2: Broader Military Modernization - The procurement scope may extend beyond fighter jets to include Chinese-made vessels, frigates, and other weaponry [1]. - As the largest economy in Southeast Asia, Indonesia has been actively pursuing military modernization, exemplified by a recent agreement with France to purchase 42 Rafale fighter jets for $8.1 billion, with the first six expected to be delivered in 2026 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recently launched BYD Sea Lion 07 DMI, highlighting its pricing, features, and market reception, while also addressing the confusion among customers regarding the various models offered by BYD [1][2]. Pricing and Offers - The Sea Lion 07 DMI is available in three configurations with a price range of ¥169,800 to ¥205,800, and current promotions include four free maintenance services and trade-in subsidies of ¥5,000 for other brands and ¥6,000 for its own products [2][3]. Customer Reception - There has been a low level of customer interest in the Sea Lion 07 DMI, with few customers specifically inquiring about the model, and some expressing that the price seems high compared to competitors like the Tang, which offers significant discounts [6][8]. Training and Sales Insights - Internal training for sales staff on the Sea Lion 07 DMI was described as intense but lacking in unique selling points, with sales staff feeling pressure to understand the model better [4][9]. Financial Support - The manufacturer offers a financing plan with a 50% down payment and 24-month interest-free options, while the dealership promotes a bank financing plan with a 5% return after two years [11]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The article suggests that it may be better to wait for potential price reductions, estimating a possible discount of ¥5,000 in about six months, especially around the holiday season [13]. Product Features - Key selling points of the Sea Lion 07 DMI include its fuel efficiency due to the fifth-generation hybrid technology, standard cloud driving system, and advanced features like a massage seat option and an optional drone system [16]. Overall Impression - The overall impression of the Sea Lion 07 DMI is mixed, with some sales staff feeling that it does not significantly improve upon the previous model, the Guard Ship, in terms of design and material quality [14].

Core Viewpoint - North Korea's recent military activities, including the launch of cruise missiles and a significant incident involving a newly constructed destroyer, have drawn international attention and raised concerns about the country's military capabilities and operational safety [1][2][3]. Group 1: Missile Launch - On May 22, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff reported that North Korea launched several cruise missiles from the area of Wonsan, South Hamgyong Province [2][3]. - The South Korean military had detected signs of a potential missile launch in advance and entered a state of alert [3]. Group 2: Destroyer Incident - A newly constructed 5,000-ton destroyer experienced a serious accident during its launch ceremony on May 21, which was attended by Kim Jong-un [5][6]. - The accident was attributed to inexperienced command and improper operation, leading to damage to the ship's hull [5][10]. - Kim Jong-un criticized the incident as a significant error and indicated that it would be reviewed at the upcoming Workers' Party Central Committee meeting [7][9]. Group 3: Investigation and Response - Kim Jong-un ordered the establishment of an investigation team to look into the cause of the accident and emphasized the need for rapid repairs to the damaged destroyer, framing it as a matter of national authority [8][9]. - The details of the accident were publicly disclosed by North Korean media, which is unusual for such incidents, indicating a potential shift in transparency regarding military operations [10]. Group 4: Future Military Developments - The new destroyer is part of North Korea's broader military modernization efforts, which include plans for more advanced warships and enhanced naval capabilities [11][12]. - Kim Jong-un stated that the destroyer would be delivered to the navy by early next year and highlighted the importance of continuous naval construction [12].