证券研究报告 | 2026年01月12日 美元债双周报（26 年第 2 周） 弱于大市 美国经济数据分化加剧，财政主导风险升温 美国 12 月非农就业增 5 万不及预期，年度增幅创疫情后最弱，就业数据拖 累降息预期。美国 12 月非农就业人数仅增加 5 万人，低于预期的 6.5 万， 且前两个月数据合计下修 7.6 万人，导致全年新增就业仅为 58.4 万人， 创疫情以来最低水平。尽管失业率从 4.5%降至 4.4%，薪资同比增长 3.8%， 但劳动力参与率下降表明就业市场的改善并不稳固。这份疲弱的就业报 告发布后，利率互换市场对美联储 1 月降息的预期几乎完全消失，预计 首次降息将推迟至 6 月，全年降息幅度约为 50 个基点。我们认为失业 率意外下降暂时缓解了劳动力市场的担忧，支持美联储在 1 月会议保持 观望态度。 美国 12 月制造业 PMI 持续萎缩，服务业回暖。12 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 跌至 47.9，连续第十个月低于荣枯线 50，显示制造业持续收缩且降幅 为近年来最大。新订单和出口订单持续萎缩，尽管就业指标降幅收窄， 成本压力依旧高企。相比之下，服务业表现强劲，ISM 服务业 PMI ...

智通财经APP获悉，理查德·伯恩斯坦顾问公司(RBA)发出警告称，过剩的流动性正将资产价格推升至远 超基本面支撑的水平，当前市场泡沫已蔓延至人工智能(AI)之外，形成一场"全面狂欢"。该公司副首席 投资官迈克·康托普洛斯近期直言："我们眼下正处于某种'全面泡沫'之中。这不仅仅是AI——加密货 币、迷因股、特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)、投资级债券、高收益债券，无一幸免。" 这位拥有25年市场经验、曾任美国银行高收益策略主管的资深人士将矛头指向宽松的货币与财政政策， 认为是它们导致了这场脱离基本面的估值狂欢。 "科技板块今年将有所回落，"康托普洛斯质疑道，"投资者究竟在科技债券中看到了什么，以至于愿意 为一项可能五到十年后就过时的技术，提供长达40年的融资?" 目前，采用交易所交易基金(ETF)进行跨资产类别投资的RBA已完全退出公司债市场。而一年前，其还 对该领域超配。 "当利差跌破90个基点时，对我们而言，相对价值命题就不再成立，"康托普洛斯解释。截至周三，美国 高等级信贷风险溢价升至78个基点，且自去年5月以来一直低于90个基点。 康托普洛斯特别指出，AI热潮令信贷投资者尤为担忧。若AI繁荣成功，债券持有人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to halt balance sheet reduction indicates a greater reliance on the federal funds rate as the primary tool for implementing monetary policy and assessing liquidity in the financial system [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve will stop reducing its Treasury holdings starting December 1 [1] - Short-term money market rates have remained elevated for several weeks prior to this decision [1] - The Fed plans to continue reducing its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings and reinvest maturing funds into Treasury securities [1]

Core Insights - BlackRock, a major player in the financial industry, has assets comparable to the GDP of both the US and China, and has significant influence over well-known tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Tencent [1][3] - The company's rise is attributed to its founder Larry Fink, who transitioned from a political ambition to a successful finance career, notably inventing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the 1980s, which transformed banking practices [2][3] - Following the 2008 financial crisis, BlackRock capitalized on the situation, managing to expand its assets significantly while other financial institutions faltered [3][5] Company Overview - BlackRock's assets under management surged to $27 trillion, making it the largest asset management firm globally [3] - The firm has become a preferred partner for governments, managing substantial pension funds and collaborating with royal families [5] - BlackRock developed the Aladdin system, a powerful risk management tool utilized by various financial institutions and tech companies, enhancing its market insight and predictive capabilities [5][11] Recent Developments - During the COVID-19 pandemic, the US government directly entrusted $45 billion to BlackRock, which subsequently received $4 trillion in rescue funds from the Federal Reserve, doubling its asset management to $10 trillion [7] - In 2023, BlackRock signed a controversial deal with Ukraine, providing financial support in exchange for strategic resources if the country is unable to repay [9] - The firm has been strategically increasing its investments in key sectors, such as real estate and energy, particularly in the aftermath of disasters like the Hawaii wildfires [11] Influence and Power - BlackRock, along with Vanguard and State Street, controls over $20 trillion in assets, with significant stakes in 80% of S&P 500 companies and 44% of US-listed firms [13] - The company's influence extends beyond finance, as it has absorbed numerous former government officials, allowing it to impact national policies [11][15] - The perception of BlackRock as a "nation within a nation" highlights its ability to profit from crises and leverage its capital and data for further expansion [15]

中新网5月22日电(张乃月)当地时间21日，美国总统特朗普表示，其"正在非常认真地考虑让房利美 和房地美上市"。 特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，"房利美和房地美表现得非常好，释放了大量现金，时机似乎已经成 熟。请期待！"他表示，将与美国财政部长贝森特、商务部长卢特尼克和负责监管房地美和房利美的联 邦住房金融局(FHFA)的局长普尔特等人进行磋商，并"在不久的将来做出决定"。 公开资料显示，房利美和房地美(合称"两房")分别于1970年和1989年在美国纽约证券交易所公开上 市，房利美还在芝加哥股票交易所上市。2007年美国次贷危机爆发后，受美国房地产市场持续放缓影 响，"两房"出现巨额亏损，股价大幅下跌。随着危机恶化，2008年美政府接管"两房"。 对于特朗普的最新言论，彭博社指出，对冲基金等部分投资者呼吁政府解除对"两房"的托管，认为 这可能会给包括政府本身在内的股东带来意外收益。 不过，批评人士认为，此举将存在风险。如果政府减少对"两房"的支持，投资者可能会对购买抵押 贷款支持证券(MBS)更加谨慎。如果这类需求减弱，可能会给购房者的抵押贷款利率带来上行压力。 据报道，今年2月，普尔特在国会听证会上表示，任何 ...