Core Insights - The global economy is seeking a new balance amid trade easing and policy stimulus, with significant market rebounds observed in Q3 2025 driven by improved US-China trade relations, optimism in artificial intelligence, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][5]. Market Performance - Global stock markets saw a notable rebound in Q3 2025, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets, particularly in Asia, where China (+20.8%), Taiwan (+14.7%), South Korea (+12.8%), and Thailand (+17.6%) led the gains. In contrast, India experienced a decline of 6.6% due to valuation pressures and foreign capital outflows [5][6]. - The fixed income market showed volatility but overall upward movement, with US Treasury yields declining across the board, particularly the 10-year yield which fell by 8 basis points to 4.16%. Emerging market dollar bonds performed strongly, achieving a 4.8% increase [6][11]. - The commodity market saw significant gains in gold (+16.4%) and precious metals (+17.4%), while energy and agricultural sectors lagged [11]. Economic Outlook - Future months may see a slowdown in global economic growth, but policy stimulus is expected to drive a rebound in early 2026. The US economy may weaken due to stagnant job growth and rising tariff costs, although investments in new infrastructure and technology sectors provide some support [2][14]. - China's recent credit growth slowdown indicates a need for stronger domestic demand, but upcoming policy measures may inject new momentum into the economy. The government is expected to set a GDP growth target of at least 4.5% for the next year [15][34]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue cutting rates, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in October and another in December. Other major central banks are anticipated to follow suit with easing measures [3][20]. - Asian countries are implementing new rounds of stimulus to counter economic pressures, with China expanding credit support, India reforming tax policies, and Indonesia providing cash transfers to households [32][33]. Inflation Trends - Inflation patterns are diverging globally, with the US expected to see a gradual rise in inflation to around 3.1%-3.2% due to tariff effects, while many Asian economies maintain lower inflation levels, allowing for more room for monetary easing [2][16]. - In China, inflation is projected to remain low, while Japan and India are managing inflation within target ranges through policy adjustments [16][34].

Group 1 - Major banks on Wall Street are preparing for another strong year in emerging markets, driven by a weak dollar and a surge in investments in artificial intelligence [1] - Emerging market bonds denominated in local currencies are expected to yield a 7% return, the best since 2020, with currency indices rising over 6% [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts that returns on local currency emerging market bonds will reach about 8% by mid-2026, while dollar-denominated emerging market bonds are expected to see "high single-digit" growth in the next 12 months [1] Group 2 - Other banks, including Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, also forecast a weakening dollar, with Bank of America predicting over 10% returns on local emerging market bonds next year, particularly recommending the Turkish lira and Brazilian real [2] - JPMorgan highlights significant corporate capital expenditure plans in artificial intelligence, predicting that by 2028, U.S. capital spending related to AI will reach $628 billion, impacting emerging markets through technology exports and rising metal prices [2] - JPMorgan expects $40 billion to $50 billion in inflows into emerging bond funds next year, driven by improved market sentiment and structural low holdings of emerging market assets [2]

Group 1 - Wall Street maintains an optimistic outlook for emerging markets in 2026, driven by a weak dollar and investment in artificial intelligence, with expected returns of 7% for local currency bonds, the best performance since 2020 [4][5] - Morgan Stanley strategists suggest maintaining long positions in emerging market local currency bonds, predicting returns of around 8% by mid-2026, and high single-digit gains for emerging market dollar bonds over the next 12 months [5] Group 2 - Gold prices have declined from a near two-week high as traders assess the possibility of a U.S. rate cut in December, with spot gold at $4,157.29 per ounce, down 0.2% [7] - UK Bank of England policymaker Green indicated that measures to reduce household energy bills by £150 ($199) annually may help lower inflation expectations, although the policy's impact remains unclear [8][9] Group 3 - Dutch prosecutors have fined Morgan Stanley €101 million ($117.1 million) for dividend tax evasion, separate from tax liabilities to the Dutch tax authority due by the end of 2024 [11] Group 4 - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Ukrainian and U.S. delegations will meet this week to discuss peace and security arrangements following Geneva talks [13][14] Group 5 - OPEC+ is expected to maintain current oil production levels in an upcoming meeting and may agree on a mechanism to assess member countries' maximum production capacity [16]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley recommends maintaining long positions in emerging market local currency bonds, expecting a return of around 8% by mid-2026 due to a potential slowdown in the US economy and further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 1: Emerging Market Bonds - The firm anticipates a "high single-digit" increase in emerging market dollar bonds over the next 12 months [1]. - James Lord, head of emerging market FX strategy at Morgan Stanley, stated that Fed rate cuts will exert downward pressure on the dollar, which will help lower US Treasury yields and create a favorable environment for emerging markets [1].

Core Viewpoint - The current global inflation is in a moderate range, allowing for a loosening of monetary policy, but the market still faces multiple uncertainties, particularly geopolitical risks. A diversified global asset allocation strategy is recommended to capture structural opportunities while managing risks [1]. Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - Major economies are expected to maintain stable growth this year, providing a solid foundation for global equity assets to continue rising [1]. - Non-U.S. markets are showing relative attractiveness, with non-U.S. stocks outperforming U.S. stocks in the first three quarters of the year, potentially due to declining trust in U.S. dollar assets [1]. Group 2: Fixed Income and Emerging Markets - The Federal Reserve's restart of the rate-cutting cycle presents capital gain opportunities for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, while narrowing credit spreads enhance the investment value of U.S. investment-grade credit bonds [2]. - Emerging market dollar bonds are also attractive under a generally optimistic macro backdrop [2]. - Historically, rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have often led to positive performance in global equity markets, with emerging markets showing higher upward elasticity compared to others [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - A diversified global asset allocation strategy is deemed prudent in the face of ongoing market uncertainties, focusing on both equity fundamentals and defensive assets like bonds and gold to hedge risks [3]. - The strategy aims to reduce single-market risks and find investment anchors to navigate through market cycles [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rebound of the US dollar has led some emerging market investors to believe that the dollar will continue to strengthen in the coming months, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rising by 2.7% in July, ending a six-month decline, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell by 1.2% [1] - Barclays advises clients to avoid shorting the dollar against Asian currencies and instead recommends going long on the dollar against certain low-yielding currencies in the region, indicating a cautious stance on betting against the dollar during the summer [1] - Barclays prefers to completely avoid relative value trades involving the dollar, such as betting on the Singapore dollar weakening against the renminbi or shorting the Thai baht against the Korean won [1] Group 2 - Fidelity International suggests that the attractiveness of the dollar as a funding currency for arbitrage trades is declining due to the potential for US interest rates to remain high for an extended period, recommending consideration of lower-cost alternative funding currencies [2] - T. Rowe Price Group favors dollar-denominated emerging market bonds over local currency bonds as a tactical trade, noting that last month, emerging market dollar bonds outperformed local currency bonds with a return of 0.9% compared to -0.9% for local currency bonds [2] - T. Rowe Price's fund manager in Hong Kong expresses a preference for holding dollar-denominated emerging market bonds due to their more attractive yields, while indicating that the dollar may enter a consolidation phase over the next three to six months, posing challenges for local currency bond returns [2]