证券研究报告·策略报告·策略月评 策略月评 20251020 以守待攻——ETF 主观配置策略月报（八） 2025 年 10 月 20 日 [Table_Summary] 在 2 月中旬发布的首期 《ETF 主观配置策略月报》中，我们详细阐述了 ETF 主观配置策略的背景与意义，以及如何基于"大势研判—风格研判— 行业/产业趋势研判"三层级框架自上而下地构建 ETF 主观配置策略。遵 循这一框架，我们会于每月中旬更新市场展望，并推荐 10 只 A 股 ETF 作 为未来短期内的重点关注方向。 ◼ 本期市场展望与 ETF 主观配置策略 | 基金代码 | 基金简称 | 跟踪指数 | 跟踪指数名称 | | 发行日期 规模（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 510050.SH | 华夏上证50ETF | 000016.SH | 上证50 | 2004-11-29 | 1,789.5 | | 510880.SH | 华泰柏瑞上证红利ETF | 000015.SH | 红利指数 | 2006-10-30 | 194.5 | | 159545.SZ | 易方达恒生红 ...

每经记者 彭水萍 每经编辑 赵云 今年的行情已走过三个季度，一些买宽基ETF的朋友在今年国庆节假期可能有点"懵"：手里的宽基 产品明明涨得不错（沪深300涨近18%，创业板指涨51%），怎么份额反倒悄悄少了？看数据更直观， 全市场宽基ETF总规模从2.19万亿元冲到2.51万亿元，猛增3200亿元，可份额却掉了2241.5亿份。这不 是"bug"，而是两个"小秘密"在搞事：一是净值涨得太凶，把你止盈卖出的份额"盖"住了；二是大家开 始"移情别恋"——行业、主题ETF（贴热点、弹性高）以及债券ETF这些"新欢"抢了宽基的"旧爱"位 置。 原来，市场早就从"买个宽基躺平"，变成"挑着热点精准进攻"了。 此外，宽基ETF内部也出现明显分化：有的稳如泰山（几只沪深300ETF业绩、规模稳健增长）， 有的涨得越猛却被卖得越狠（3只涨超50%的成长宽基产品遭遇超百亿元级的净赎回），这又是怎么回 事？ 净值拉升助力规模增长 今年前三季度，A股主要宽基指数震荡攀升，沪深300指数涨17.94%，上证50指数涨11.33%，中证 A500指数上涨21.91%；创业板和科创板相关宽基指数表现更为强势，创业板指前三季度大涨51.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the policy interest rate, bringing the federal funds target rate to a range of 4-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months since December 2024. The market has already priced in this cut, and further rate cuts are expected in the coming months, with a total of three cuts anticipated by the end of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Impact - The current appropriate policy benchmark interest rate is estimated to be around 3.37%, indicating that the Federal Reserve has approximately 70 basis points of room for further cuts [1]. - The expectation of future rate cuts may lead to a decline in the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, potentially benefiting the A-share market due to a more accommodative dollar liquidity environment [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - In the context of the Fed's rate cut, the focus for investors is on how to invest in quality assets. Historically, rate cuts lower financing costs and enhance liquidity, leading to a depreciation of the dollar, which can boost the prices of dollar-denominated commodities like gold and copper [4]. - Gold and commodities are expected to perform well during the rate cut cycle, as lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4]. Group 3: Specific Asset Analysis - **Gold and Commodities**: The market's long-term funds are likely to respond positively to the rate cuts, with gold expected to show strong performance historically during such cycles [4][5]. - **Emerging Markets**: Following the rate cuts, U.S. domestic funds are anticipated to seek new opportunities in emerging markets, leading to increased capital inflows [6][7]. - **A-Share Technology Sector**: The reduction in financing costs is expected to accelerate capital expenditure and technological advancements in the tech sector, with semiconductor stocks showing significant growth [9][10]. - **Hong Kong Tech Stocks**: The Hong Kong market is particularly sensitive to external liquidity conditions, with historical data indicating strong performance during previous Fed rate cut cycles [11][12]. Group 4: Product Recommendations - For gold investments, the Huaan Gold ETF (518880) has shown stable returns, while the Yongying CSI Hong Kong Gold Industry ETF (517520) has a large scale and high market recognition [5]. - In emerging markets, the Huaan Mitsubishi Nikkei 225 ETF (513880) and the Huatai Baichuan Southeast Asia Technology ETF (513730) are recommended for exposure to Japanese and Southeast Asian markets, respectively [9]. - For A-share technology investments, the Tianhong CSI Robotics ETF (159770) and the E Fund CSI Sci-Tech Innovation 50 ETF (159781) are highlighted for their strong performance and low fees [10]. - In the Hong Kong market, the Southern East Asia Technology Index ETF (3033.HK) is noted for its favorable fee structure and scale, while the Fuguo CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF (159792) is recognized for its significant size and institutional backing [12].

Group 1 - The current market trend is characterized by a strong institutional focus on various sectors, including pharmaceuticals, technology, and new energy, leading to increased volatility and the risk of missing investment opportunities [1][6] - The China Securities Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index (CSI 50) encompasses four major thriving sectors, providing a comprehensive representation of emerging industries [2][6] - The CSI 50 index has shown superior performance, with a return rate exceeding 50% since July, outperforming both the ChiNext 50 and the Science and Technology 50 indices [3][5] Group 2 - The CSI 50 index has a year-to-date return of 53.54%, significantly higher than the ChiNext 50's 48.82% and the Science and Technology 50's 32.15% [5] - The index's balanced industry distribution across AI, energy storage, domestic chips, and biomedicine contributes to its high success rate in the current market [6][7] - The index's ETFs, such as E Fund and Huaxia, have become popular due to their strong performance and low management fees, with E Fund's ETF achieving a return rate of nearly 109% in the past year [8][9] Group 3 - The enhanced strategy ETF from GF Fund has demonstrated notable excess returns of 1.52% and 4.48% over one and three years, respectively, showcasing effective market judgment [11][13] - The CSI 50 ETF's cross-market allocation allows it to benefit from the differentiated advantages of both the Science and Technology Board and the ChiNext, aligning with the trend of technological innovation [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - Important news: The scale of public funds has exceeded 35 trillion yuan for the first time, and the total scale of China's ETFs has exceeded 5 trillion yuan [2][5] - Market review: In the week from August 25th to August 29th, 2025, the major broad - based indexes of the A - share market showed an upward trend, while most overseas indexes showed a downward trend [2][7] - Fund market review: Most active equity funds achieved positive returns last week, with the median return of active equity funds being 2.02%. Technology and cyclical theme funds performed outstandingly [2][11] - ETF fund statistics: The top three ETF categories in terms of performance last week were technology, A - share broad - based, and manufacturing theme ETFs. There were 519 ETFs with net capital inflows and 523 with net outflows [2][18] - Fund market dynamics: Last week, 47 public funds had new fund managers, 44 new public funds were established, 31 entered the issuance stage, and 63 were waiting to be issued [2][27][34] - Equity fund issuance tracking: The issuance scale of equity funds last week was 206.68 billion yuan, an increase of 11.50 billion yuan from the previous week. There are still 808.29 billion yuan of new funds waiting to be invested [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important News - Market dynamics: As of the end of July 2025, the net asset value of domestic public funds reached 35.08 trillion yuan, and as of August 25th, the total scale of China's ETFs exceeded 5 trillion yuan [5] - Product hotspots: In August, the new fund issuance scale was nearly 100 billion yuan, with equity funds gaining popularity. The number of personal pension wealth management products increased to 37 [6] - Overseas market: Foreign capital increased their allocation to the Chinese market and actively invested in stock funds. The latest heavy - holding stocks of QFII were exposed [6][7] 3.2 Market Review - A - share market: All major broad - based indexes rose, with the ChiNext Index rising 7.74% and the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.84% [2][7] - Overseas market: Most overseas indexes fell, such as the German DAX falling 1.89% [2][7] - Industry performance: The communication and non - ferrous metal industries led the gains, while the coal and textile and clothing industries led the losses [9] 3.3 Fund Market Review - Active equity fund performance: Technology and cyclical theme funds performed well in the recent week, month, quarter, and year [11][14] - Top - performing fund statistics: The top - performing active equity fund last week was Kaishilan Leading Economy One - Year Holding, a technology - themed fund with a return of 24.09% [16][17] 3.4 ETF Fund Statistics - ETF performance: The top three ETF categories in terms of performance last week were technology, A - share broad - based, and manufacturing theme ETFs [18][19] - ETF fund flow: The top categories with net inflows were technology, financial real estate, and bond ETFs, while the top categories with net outflows were A - share broad - based ETFs [21][22] - ETF fund premium and discount: As of August 29th, 2025, the top three ETFs in terms of premium rate were China Construction Fund's CSI New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF, etc., and the top three in terms of discount rate were Founder Fubang's CSI STAR Market Innovation 50 ETF, etc. [25][26] 3.5 Fund Market Dynamics - Fund manager changes: Last week, 47 public funds had new fund managers, and 68 had fund manager departures [27][30] - Newly - established funds: 44 new public funds were established last week, with a total issuance share of 282.05 billion. Passive index funds were the most numerous and had the largest issuance share [34] - Newly - issued funds: 31 public funds entered the issuance stage last week, with passive index funds being the most numerous [2] - Funds to be issued: As of August 31st, 2025, there were 63 public funds waiting to be issued [2] - Equity fund issuance tracking: The issuance scale of equity funds last week was 206.68 billion yuan, and there are still 808.29 billion yuan of new funds waiting to be invested [2]

Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of the CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index ETF reached 1.595 billion yuan today, an increase of 911 million yuan from the previous trading day, representing a growth rate of 133.12% [1] Trading Volume Summary - The E Fund CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159781) had a trading volume of 810 million yuan today, an increase of 583 million yuan from the previous trading day, with a growth rate of 256.40% [1] - The Southern CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159780) recorded a trading volume of 225 million yuan, up by 127 million yuan from the previous trading day, reflecting a growth rate of 129.10% [1] - The Huaxia CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159783) saw a trading volume of 132 million yuan, an increase of 57.2375 million yuan from the previous trading day, with a growth rate of 76.19% [1] Market Performance Summary - As of market close, the average increase for ETFs tracking the CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index was 2.49%, with notable performers including the Bosera CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (588390) and the Huabao Dual Innovation Leader ETF (588330), which rose by 3.19% and 2.67% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The trading volume of the CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index ETF reached 475 million yuan today, marking a 45.17% increase compared to the previous trading day [1] Trading Volume Summary - The E Fund CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159781) had a trading volume of 120 million yuan, an increase of 35.6 million yuan, with a growth rate of 42.17% [1] - The Southern CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159780) recorded a trading volume of 80.53 million yuan, up by 22.29 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 38.28% [1] - The Fortune CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (588380) saw a trading volume of 45.16 million yuan, increasing by 19.34 million yuan, with a significant growth rate of 74.88% [1] - Other ETFs such as the Founder Fubon CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (588310) and the GF CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Enhanced Strategy ETF (588320) also experienced notable increases in trading volume, with growth rates of 157.89% and 113.19% respectively [1] Market Performance Summary - As of market close, the average increase for ETFs tracking the CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index was 1.81%, with the highest performers being the Harvest CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (588400) and the GF CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Enhanced Strategy ETF (588320), which rose by 2.01% and 1.93% respectively [1]

Group 1 - The total trading volume of the CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index ETF reached 327 million yuan today, an increase of 72.84% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The E Fund CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159781) had a trading volume of 84.41 million yuan, up 91.12% from the previous day [1] - The Southern CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159780) saw a trading volume of 58.24 million yuan, with a significant increase of 125.26% [1] Group 2 - The average increase of related ETFs tracking the CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index was 1.64% at market close, with the top performers being the Fortune CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (588380) and the Guotai CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (588360), which rose by 1.84% and 1.74% respectively [2] - The trading volume of the GF CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Enhanced Strategy ETF (588320) surged by 579.18%, indicating strong investor interest [2] - The trading volume of the Pengyang CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (588350) increased by 237.47%, reflecting a notable rise in market activity [2]

Group 1 - The total trading volume of the CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index ETF reached 245 million yuan today, an increase of 62.98 million yuan compared to the previous trading day, representing a growth rate of 34.63% [1] - The E Fund CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159781) had a trading volume of 65.70 million yuan today, an increase of 17.63 million yuan from the previous day, with a growth rate of 36.69% [1] - The Hua Bao Double Innovation Leader ETF (588330) recorded a trading volume of 24.73 million yuan, up 11.63 million yuan from the previous day, with a growth rate of 88.81% [1] Group 2 - The average decline of ETFs tracking the CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index was 0.70% at market close today, with the largest declines seen in the E Fund CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159781) and the Huaxia CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159783), which fell by 0.94% and 0.93% respectively [1] - The trading volume of the Xingyin CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (588660) increased by 144.87%, while the Double Innovation 50 ETF (159782) saw an increase of 97.25% compared to the previous trading day [1]

Core Insights - The total trading volume of the CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index ETF reached 625 million yuan today, an increase of 199 million yuan from the previous trading day, representing a growth rate of 46.88% [1] Trading Performance - The E Fund CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (159781) had a trading volume of 230 million yuan today, up 111 million yuan from the previous day, with a growth rate of 93.94% [1] - The Fortune CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (588380) recorded a trading volume of 58.4 million yuan, an increase of 26.6 million yuan, with a growth rate of 83.75% [1] - The China Merchants CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (588300) had a trading volume of 48.4 million yuan, up 18.9 million yuan, with a growth rate of 64.55% [1] Market Performance - The average increase of ETFs tracking the CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index was 2.08% at market close, with notable performers including the Founder Fubon Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (588310) and the China Merchants CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF (588300), which rose by 2.41% and 2.39% respectively [1]