1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn futures prices are oscillating at a high level. The international oil price is high due to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, which boosts the freight and international corn prices. In the domestic market, the willingness of grain holders to sell has increased with the rising purchase price, but the risk of mildew has also risen due to high - temperature, leading to more high - moisture grain supply. The processing enterprise inventory has slightly increased, and the price increase is under pressure. The wheat substitution effect has strengthened, and the rumored rice auction in April may also have a negative impact on corn prices. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. - Corn starch futures prices have risen and then fallen. The supply of raw material corn has increased, leading to a higher operating rate of corn starch enterprises and increased supply pressure. The inventory has also slightly increased. However, the starch spot market performs well supported by the good price of raw material corn. The short - term market may remain volatile [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - **Corn** - The closing price of the main 2605 contract is 2369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from last week. The international situation boosts international corn prices, while in the domestic market, the supply and demand situation is complex, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. - **Corn Starch** - The closing price of the main 2605 contract is 2755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton from last week. The supply pressure has increased, but the spot market is supported by raw material prices. The short - term market may remain volatile [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - The corn futures May contract oscillated at a high level, with a total position of 1,124,900 lots, a decrease of 191,807 lots from last week. The corn starch futures May contract rose and then fell, with a total position of 254,131 lots (compared with 284,736 lots last week), a decrease of 30,605 lots [14]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes** - The net position of the top 20 in corn futures is - 142,948, compared with - 196,157 last week, and the net short position has decreased. The net position of the top 20 in starch futures is - 21,269, compared with - 15,209 last week, and the net short position has increased [20]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 59,377 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch are 4,650 lots [26]. - **Spot Price and Basis** - As of March 26, 2026, the average spot price of corn is 2,452.55 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active May contract of corn and the spot average price is + 76.55 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin is 2,900 yuan/ton, and in Shandong is 3,020 yuan/ton, with a decline this week. The basis between the May contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin is + 145 yuan/ton [31][35]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread** - The 5 - 7 spread of corn is - 18 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 5 - 7 spread of starch is - 15 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period [42]. - **Futures Spread** - The spread between the May contract of starch and corn is 386 yuan/ton. As of this Friday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch is 670 yuan/ton [52]. - **Substitute Spread** - As of March 26, 2026, the average spot price of wheat is 2,590.56 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn is 2,452.55 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread is 138.01 yuan/ton. In the 12th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 819 yuan/ton, narrowing by 16 yuan/ton compared with last week [57]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn** - **Supply Side** - As of March 20, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port is 23.4 tons, a decrease of 5.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory is 14.7 tons, a decrease of 1.50 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports is 254.1 tons, an increase of 35.9 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume in the four northern ports is 63.5 tons, a decrease of 11.7 tons week - on - week [46]. - The overall progress of domestic corn sales is 81% as of March 26, 2026, an increase of 3% from March 19, 2026, and a decrease of 6% compared with the same period in 2025 [59]. - In February 2026, the total import volume of ordinary corn is 17.00 tons, the lowest this year, an increase of 9.00 tons (112.50%) compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 20.00 tons compared with the previous month [63]. - As of March 26, the average inventory of feed enterprises is 31.57 days, an increase of 1.30 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 4.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.01% [67]. - **Demand Side** - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory is 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million (0.5%) compared with the end of the previous year. Among them, the inventory of breeding sows is 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million (2.9%) [71]. - As of March 27, the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 189.87 yuan/head, a decrease of 48.39 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 344.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 46.56 yuan/head [75]. - As of March 26, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin is 34 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan is - 399 yuan/ton, in Jilin is - 503 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang is 81 yuan/ton [80]. - **Corn Starch** - **Supply Side** - As of March 25, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions is 406.3 tons, an increase of 7.80% [84]. - From March 19 to March 25, 2026, the total corn processing volume in the country is 63.99 tons, an increase of 1.72 tons from last week; the weekly corn starch output is 33.36 tons, an increase of 1.19 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate is 60.98%, an increase of 2.18% from last week. As of March 25, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises in the country is 121.7 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.16%, a month - on - month increase of 1.59%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.71% [88]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of March 27, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2605 contract of corn is 10.63%, a decrease of 1.81% from 12.44% last week. The implied volatility has oscillated and declined this week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].

Core Insights - The article highlights the continuous operation of freight trains during the Spring Festival, specifically the "Yangtze River Express," "Northbound Express," and "Greater Bay Area Express," which collectively operated 39 trains and transported approximately 54,395 tons of goods, ensuring uninterrupted supply during the holiday season [1][2]. Group 1: Freight Train Operations - The "Yangtze River Express" was established to enhance the transportation capacity of the Yangtze River Golden Waterway, utilizing a rail-water intermodal system that significantly reduces transportation time by half compared to traditional water transport [1][2]. - During the Spring Festival, a train loaded with 1,100 tons of coke traveled from Dazhou to Wuhan, demonstrating the efficiency of the "Yangtze River Express" in transporting raw materials for steel production [3]. - The "Northbound Express" transported 20 standard containers of flour from Meishan to Yinan, Shandong, showcasing its role in regional supply chains [3]. Group 2: Regional Supply Chain Impact - The "Greater Bay Area Express" facilitated the rapid delivery of Sichuan specialties such as hot pot base and doubanjiang to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area within 36 hours, enhancing the festive market offerings [2][3]. - The return trips of the "Greater Bay Area Express" included transporting fashion items, beverages, and home appliances from the Greater Bay Area to Sichuan, further enriching the local holiday market [3].

Core Insights - The agricultural trade volume between Guangxi and Vietnam is projected to reach 18.23 billion RMB by 2025, with imports accounting for 12.09 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8% [1] - From 2022 to 2025, the average annual growth rate of agricultural trade between Guangxi and Vietnam is expected to be 15.2% [1] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Key focus areas in the agricultural trade include fruit, with Guangxi serving as a crucial channel for Vietnamese fruits entering China and vice versa [1] - Major agricultural exports from Guangxi to Vietnam include fresh or refrigerated garlic, onions, hybrid citrus, sweet melons, potatoes, and seafood [1] - Key imports from Vietnam to Guangxi consist of fresh durians, lobsters, cassava starch, and fishmeal for feed [1] Group 2: Smart Agriculture Initiatives - Guangxi Yangxiang Group has launched the first full-chain digital pig farming project in Vietnam [2] - Jiejia Run Technology Group's smart technologies have been applied on a large scale in Vietnamese orchards, increasing high-end fruit yield by approximately 30% [2] - Guangxi Liuluo Ecological Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. is transitioning mushroom cultivation in Vietnam from traditional methods to data-driven approaches [2] Group 3: Future Development Plans - By 2026, Guangxi aims to enhance the cultivation of quality agricultural international trade entities and support the establishment of overseas warehouses for agricultural products [2] - Plans include broadening agricultural trade cooperation channels and accelerating the construction of a smart agriculture leading area aimed at ASEAN [2] - The establishment of a regular mechanism for policy discussions, experience sharing, and project connections between the agricultural departments of Guangxi and the four bordering provinces of Vietnam is also planned [2]

Report Title - "补库提振减弱 玉米震荡调整 —— 国信期货玉米周报" released on January 30, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the past week, the corn spot price fluctuated slightly, with the Jinzhou Port spot price rising 0.43% to 2,320 yuan/ton, while the futures price dropped from a high, with the main contract C2603 falling 1.26% to 2,271 yuan/ton, and the near-far month spread first surging and then falling. As downstream restocking nears completion, the spot market has turned to a volatile state, and the futures market has declined due to concerns about the spring grain sales pressure. Fundamentally, according to My Agricultural Products Network data, the national grain sales progress has advanced to 60% this week, a 4-percentage-point increase from last week and a 2-percentage-point increase year-on-year. Regionally, the sales progress in the Northeast is still slow, and that in North China lags behind last year. On the demand side, the scale of livestock and poultry farming remains at a relatively high level, with strong short-term rigid demand, but there is a possibility of weakening demand in the future under the background of capacity reduction. Feed enterprises' raw material inventory has increased again this week and is at a neutral level year-on-year. Deep-processing enterprises' raw material inventory has significantly rebounded after previous restocking, but the inventory consumption ratio is still at a relatively low level. In terms of ports, the grain inventory at southern ports is at a low level, and the inventory at northern ports has increased but is still not high year-on-year. Overall, as the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market enters a period of light trading. For futures, as the registered warehouse receipts increase, the upward momentum in the near term weakens, but the discount of the futures price to the spot price will still provide some support. The operation strategy is to adopt a volatile mindset [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - **1.1 Corn Futures Market Changes** - Not provided - **1.2 Corn Spot Market Changes** - The Jinzhou Port spot price rose 0.43% to 2,320 yuan/ton last week [7] - **1.3 Corn Spot Market: Regional Spread** - Not provided - **1.4 Corn Sales Progress** - The national grain sales progress has advanced to 60% this week, a 4-percentage-point increase from last week and a 2-percentage-point increase year-on-year. Regionally, the sales progress in the Northeast is still slow, and that in North China lags behind last year [7] - **1.5 Corn Import** - Not provided - **1.6 Feed and Livestock Farming Demand** - The scale of livestock and poultry farming remains at a relatively high level, with strong short-term rigid demand, but there is a possibility of weakening demand in the future under the background of capacity reduction [7] - **1.7 Feed and Livestock Farming Demand: Feed Production** - Not provided - **1.8 Deep-Processing Demand** - Deep-processing enterprises' raw material inventory has significantly rebounded after previous restocking, but the inventory consumption ratio is still at a relatively low level [7] - **1.9 Substitutes** - Not provided - **1.10 Northern Port Corn Dynamics** - The inventory at northern ports has increased but is still not high year-on-year [7] - **1.11 Southern Port Corn Dynamics** - Not provided - **1.12 Southern Port Grain Dynamics** - The grain inventory at southern ports is at a low level [7] 2. Domestic Corn Market Dynamics - **2.1 Corn Starch Futures** - Not provided - **2.2 Corn Starch Spot** - Not provided - **2.3 Corn - Starch Spread** - Not provided - **2.4 Corn Starch Production and Inventory** - Not provided - **2.5 Corn Starch Downstream Demand** - Not provided - **2.6 Cassava Starch** - Not provided 3. International Corn Market Dynamics - **3.1 US Corn Futures Market** - Not provided - **3.2 US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress** - Not provided - **3.4 Brazilian Corn Crop Progress** - Not provided

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global corn supply pressure will weaken in the 26/27 season, and the price center of gravity will rise. The planting area of US corn is expected to decline, and the new - season yield may be lower. Brazilian corn production is stable, and exports are good. - In the domestic market, the corn supply in the 25/26 season is still tight, and the planting cost will rise in the 26/27 season. Feed demand will decline slightly, but the use of corn will remain high. Deep - processing profits will decline. The inventory of north - south ports will continue to rise. - In the future, the price of US corn will be higher than that of the previous year. Domestic corn prices will fall before the end of March due to the peak of farmers selling grain, but will rise in the medium - to - long term. The price of corn starch will be relatively strong, and the price difference between corn starch and corn may expand. [5][15][90] Summary by Directory 1. Preface and Overview - **Market Review**: In the 25/26 season, US corn was in bottom - range oscillation due to record - high production. Domestic corn prices rose in the first half of the year due to reduced imports and substitutes, fell in July considering new - season planting cost reduction and increased production, and rose counter - seasonally after mid - October due to low carry - over inventory and farmers' reluctance to sell. Corn starch was relatively weak, and the profit was lower than last year. [4] - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, the supply pressure of US corn will weaken in the 25/26 season, and the new - season price center of gravity in 26/27 will be higher. Domestically, the supply of corn after the Spring Festival is still tight, but the spot price will fall before the end of March due to farmers selling grain. The price of corn starch is expected to improve, and the price difference between corn starch and corn will likely expand. [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: - Unilateral: Go long on the US corn 05 contract lightly around 430 cents per bushel, and go long on the 07 corn contract when the price is between 2220 - 2350. - Arbitrage: Expand the price difference between 05 corn and starch when it is between 280 - 370. - Options: Sell the corn put option (c2605 - P - 2220) when the market falls to a low point. [7] 2. Market Regression and International Corn Fundamentals - **Domestic and International Corn Market Review**: In 2025, the domestic corn spot market had three stages: continuous rise from January to June, decline from July to mid - October, and counter - seasonal rise from mid - October to mid - December. The futures market had small fluctuations, and the basis operation was difficult in the second half of the year. [8][13] - **Global Corn Supply Pressure Weakens, Center of Gravity Will Rise**: The 25/26 season had a loose corn supply due to increased yields in China and the US. However, in the 26/27 season, the uncertainty of weather may lead to a decrease in yield, and the global grain price center of gravity will rise. [15] - **US Corn Old - Crop Supply Is Loose, New - Season Yield Is Expected to Decline**: In the 25/26 season, the area and yield of US corn reached record highs, but the planting was still at a loss. The planting area in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease, and the yield may be lower than the previous year. The price center of gravity of US corn will be higher, and the 12 - contract has strong support at 400 cents per bushel. [22] - **Brazilian Corn Production Is Stable, Exports Are Good**: Brazilian corn production has been stable at around 130 million tons in recent years, and exports are also stable. As of December 13, the sowing rate of the first - crop corn was 77.5%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume was 35.75 million tons. Brazilian corn is still the main import source when the domestic corn supply is tight. [28] 3. Domestic Corn Fundamental Analysis - **25/26 Season Corn Supply Is Still Tight, 26/27 Season Planting Cost Rises**: In the 25/26 season, the national corn production increased, but the carry - over inventory was low, and the supply was still tight. The import of corn and grains decreased significantly. In the 26/27 season, the new - season corn planting cost is expected to rise. [33][34] - **Feed Demand Declines Slightly, Corn Usage Remains High**: Due to losses in the breeding industry and high inventory, the feed demand will decline slightly after the year, but the demand for corn may still increase due to the low - level of substitute grains. The current feed demand still shows a slight increase, but the breeding industry is expected to reduce inventory in 2026. [39] - **Corn Is at a High Level, Deep - Processing Profits Will Decline**: In 2025, the deep - processing industry was in overall loss. In the first quarter of 2026, the operating rate is expected to decline, and the demand for corn will decrease slightly. The demand for corn starch may improve, but the deep - processing profit is lower than in previous years. The operating rate of the alcohol industry is also expected to decline. [59][71] - **North - South Port Inventory Will Continue to Rise**: Due to low carry - over inventory, low inventory in intermediate channels and downstream, and farmers' reluctance to sell, the north - south port corn inventory was at a historical low. Before the end of March, the inventory will continue to rise due to the peak of farmers selling grain. [77] - **Corn and Starch Trading Logic**: The focus of the market is on the selling rhythm of farmers before the end of March. After the peak of farmers selling grain, the medium - to - long - term corn price will rise. The price of corn starch will be relatively strong, and the price difference between corn starch and corn may expand. [82] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Corn**: The price of US corn in the 26/27 season will be higher than in the previous year. The domestic corn spot price will fall before the end of March and then rise. The price of North Port closing price is expected to fluctuate between 2200 - 2400, and the 07 futures contract will be relatively strong, fluctuating between 2220 - 2380. [90] - **Starch**: Corn starch will fluctuate narrowly with corn in the first quarter of 2026. After the second quarter, it will be relatively strong, and the price difference between corn starch and corn will expand. The 05 starch contract will rise in oscillation, and the price difference between 05 corn and starch is expected to fluctuate between 280 - 370. - **Trading Strategy**: - Unilateral: Go long on the US corn 05 contract lightly around 430 cents per bushel. Go long on the 07 corn contract when the price is between 2220 - 2350. - Arbitrage: The price difference between 05 corn and starch fluctuates between 280 - 370. - Options: Sell the c2605 - P - 2200 option after the market falls. [91][92][94]

Core Viewpoint - The new "Silk Road Maritime" route VTX7 significantly reduces the direct shipping time from Cambodia to Xiamen from 12 days to 6 days, enhancing shipping efficiency and facilitating the entry of Southeast Asian agricultural products into the Chinese market [2]. Group 1: Route Details - The VTX7 route primarily transports specialty agricultural products such as cassava starch, cassava chips, rice, and mangoes from Cambodia and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, covering major ports in Cambodia and Vietnam [2]. - The new route is described as the fastest direct shipping line from Xiamen to Cambodia and Vietnam, effectively creating a "maritime expressway" for high-quality agricultural products [2]. Group 2: Operational Support - To ensure the efficient operation of the new route, the Xiamen Dongdu Border Inspection Station has implemented a specialized service mechanism, including a dedicated escort team and a "one ship, one policy" approach for precise support [4]. - The station has adopted a streamlined customs clearance process, significantly reducing the time vessels spend in port and achieving "zero delays" in customs [4]. - The "Silk Road Maritime" initiative is China's first international comprehensive logistics service brand focused on shipping, launched in 2018, with 148 named routes covering 150 ports in 48 countries and regions as of September this year [4].

Core Points - A railway container train carrying 1,000 tons of cassava starch departed from Vientiane South Station on the China-Laos Railway, expected to arrive in Zhengzhou, China, in 80 hours, marking the first cassava starch shipment from Laos to China [1] - The cassava starch was produced by a local factory in Laos, and the transportation was organized by China Railway Container Transport Co., Ltd., which provided comprehensive logistics services including planning, loading design, delivery, waybill preparation, information tracking, and emergency response [1] - Since the operation of the China-Laos Railway, the Laos-China Railway Company has facilitated the transportation of over 16 million tons of goods, including more than 1.7 million tons of agricultural products to China, and plans to regularly operate cassava starch and other agricultural product trains to enhance export channels for Laotian products [1]

Market Overview - As of October 31, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 12,504 corn starch futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - National corn processing volume for the week of October 23-29 was 597,300 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons from the previous week [1] - Weekly corn starch production reached 304,500 tons, up 16,800 tons from the prior week, with an operating rate of 58.86%, reflecting a 3.25% increase [1] - The top 20 futures companies held a total of 157,000 long positions and 215,800 short positions in corn starch, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.73 and a net position decrease of 2,454 contracts [1] Industry Insights - According to Guangzhou Futures, the recent fluctuation in the starch-corn price spread is attributed to two main factors: the reduction of industry inventory and improved corn quality concerns in North China following rainfall, suggesting that the deep processing corn purchase prices may gradually align with feed corn prices [2] - As new season corn supply increases, the pressure on raw corn supply is rising, leading to a decline in corn starch cost support. Additionally, the competitive advantage of cassava starch continues to squeeze the demand for corn starch [3] - Despite the ongoing low operating rates compared to previous years, recent good sales performance has led to a slight decrease in corporate inventory. As of October 29, total corn starch inventory across enterprises was 1,128,000 tons, down 12,000 tons week-on-week, with a weekly decline of 1.05% and a monthly decline of 0.97%, but a year-on-year increase of 36.89% [3] - The market for starch is expected to fluctuate in tandem with the corn market, with a short-term outlook of cautious observation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report systematically reviews the price spread between Chinese corn starch and corn from 2021 - 2025, aiming to analyze the profit - gaming logic of the starch industry under the over - supply situation. The main influencing factors of the spread are "cost - supply and demand". The price change of corn at the cost end is the basis for affecting the spread, while the supply - demand relationship of starch is the core driver of the spread's fluctuation. The supply and demand of starch are mainly reflected through processing profit, operating rate, and inventory. High inventory and high operating rate jointly form the greatest downward pressure on the spread, while low inventory and low operating rate are the core drivers for the spread to expand. High inventory limits the upward space of the spread, and industrial concentration strengthens the bottom support of the spread. In the future, the high inventory of starch serves as a major resistance, and the progress of inventory clearance will be a key observation indicator [1][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Corn Starch Industry Chain Situation - Corn starch accounts for about 52% of the deep - processed consumption of corn. Its price is strongly influenced by the cost of corn and its own fundamentals. China's corn starch is mainly self - sufficient, with imports less than 1%. The main production areas are Shandong, Heilongjiang, and Hebei, accounting for 41%, 25%, and 7% respectively [5]. - The supply - related indicators of corn starch include production capacity, operating rate, cost - profit, etc. Downstream consumption is concentrated in starch sugar and papermaking. There is a substitution relationship between starch sugar and white sugar, and the substitution effect is evident when the price difference exceeds 1500 yuan/ton. The price difference between white sugar and F55 high - fructose corn syrup this year has been maintained at a relatively high level of 2500 - 2700 yuan/ton, and the substitution continues. The operating rate of corrugated paper and boxboard is relatively stable, with an annual change of about 5% [6]. 3.2 Corn Starch Production Capacity Changes - In recent years, the production capacity of corn starch has been expanding. In 2024, the production capacity slightly declined to 2630 million tons but still remained in an over - supply situation. The production capacity is mainly concentrated in Shandong, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Jilin. Since 2020, the industry has witnessed intensified competition, and production capacity has been increasingly concentrated in leading enterprises. The over - supply has compressed industry profits and limited the upward space of the spread, while the concentration has strengthened the bottom support of the spread [9][10][11]. 3.3 Corn Starch and Corn Price Spread Review 3.3.1 2021: Starch Supply - Demand Dominated - The spread showed an M - shaped trend, fluctuating between 300 - 600 yuan/ton. From January to March, the spread widened from 350 to 600 yuan/ton due to high corn prices, limited starch operating rate, and tight inventory. From April to July, it narrowed to around 350 yuan/ton as both corn and starch faced supply - demand pressure. From August to October, it widened again to 600 yuan/ton because of the rebound of corn prices and low starch operating rate. From November to December, it narrowed as starch production increased while demand growth was slower [15][16]. 3.3.2 2022: Strong Cost Support - The spread had a larger amplitude and showed a narrowing trend. From January to February, it expanded from 350 to 580 yuan/ton due to high raw material prices and low operating rate. From March to October, it continuously narrowed to 80 yuan/ton under factors such as weak demand, over - supply, and profit - driven price cuts. From November to December, it fluctuated between 100 - 250 yuan/ton as both corn and starch were in a weak supply - demand balance [19][20]. 3.3.3 2023: Low Operating Rate - The spread showed an oscillating trend with a slowly rising center of gravity. From January to June, it widened to 400 yuan/ton due to stable corn prices and low operating rate caused by continuous losses in processing profit. From July to December, it slightly increased with a shrinking amplitude. In July - August, it narrowed due to high corn prices and weak starch supply - demand. After September, it slightly increased as new - season corn was listed [22][24]. 3.3.4 2024: Weak Supply - Demand - The spread fluctuated between 300 - 500 yuan/ton. From January to May, it first rose and then fell. In January, it reached 500 yuan/ton due to good starch demand and high operating rate. After February, it narrowed to 380 yuan/ton as corn prices rose and processing profit declined. From June to December, it also first rose and then fell. From June to early July, it slightly widened due to limited corn supply and good starch demand. From mid - July to December, it continuously narrowed as new - season corn production was expected to be high and starch inventory accumulated [25][27]. 3.3.5 2025: Supply Pressure - The spread's fluctuation amplitude was about 100 yuan/ton. From January to mid - March, it widened from 300 to 400 yuan/ton as corn prices rose and starch operating rate was high. From late March to early August, it oscillated between 340 - 400 yuan/ton due to corn price fluctuations and weak starch supply - demand. From mid - August to the present, it has been narrowing as new corn was listed, starch inventory remained high, and cassava starch squeezed the demand for corn starch [31]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - From 2021 - 2025, the spread oscillated with a narrowing range, from 300 - 600 yuan/ton in 2021 to 280 - 400 yuan/ton in 2025, and the high point declined from 600 to 400 yuan/ton. The spread showed seasonal patterns. The spread is mainly affected by "cost - supply and demand", with corn price as the basis and starch supply - demand as the core driver. Starch inventory is a key factor, and "high operating rate + high inventory" is the greatest downward pressure on the spread, while "low operating rate + low inventory" is the core driver for the spread to expand. In the future, the high inventory of starch is a major resistance, and the spread may continue to narrow. Attention should be paid to the change in starch inventory [35][36][40].

Core Insights - The demand for cassava starch, a key ingredient in bubble tea, is increasing rapidly due to the growth of the tea beverage market in China and globally, with the market size expected to exceed 350 billion yuan in 2024 and reach 374.93 billion yuan by 2025 [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The opening of the China-Laos Railway has facilitated the import of cassava starch from Southeast Asia, particularly Laos, making it a primary choice for companies in Southwest China [2][3] - A recent train carrying 625 tons of cassava starch from Laos arrived in Luzhou, Sichuan, after a five-day journey, indicating the efficiency of the new logistics route [2] Group 2: Cost and Efficiency Improvements - The China-Laos Railway has significantly reduced transportation time and costs compared to previous sea-rail combined transport methods, enhancing trade activity between the regions [3] - Logistics costs have decreased by 35%, and customs clearance efficiency has improved by 10% in cities like Neijiang, which aims to become a distribution center for cassava starch imports [3] Group 3: Industry Expansion - The increasing trade volume is leading to an extension of the industrial chain, with companies in Sichuan negotiating partnerships with leading cassava starch producers in Laos to enhance supply stability and support local farmers [4] - Processed cassava starch is versatile, being used not only in bubble tea but also in various food products, pharmaceuticals, and as raw materials for alcohol, showcasing its broad application [4]