Core Viewpoint - The corn starch market is experiencing low prices due to a combination of high inventory levels and reduced demand, with expectations of short-term price fluctuations followed by a long-term decline as raw material prices weaken [2][3][5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Corn prices are at a five-year low, with the national standard second-grade corn price at 2300 RMB/ton, down 70 RMB/ton year-on-year, a decrease of approximately 2.95% [2]. - Corn starch prices are also at a five-year low, with the Shandong national standard first-grade corn starch price at 2890 RMB/ton, down 50 RMB/ton year-on-year, a decrease of about 1.70% [2]. - Domestic corn starch inventory increased by 8.47 million tons in the first seven months of the year, while production decreased by 830,400 tons, leading to a net supply increase of 7.68 million tons [3]. - Major corn starch enterprises have seen a decrease in delivery volume by 809,400 tons year-on-year, indicating lower consumption compared to previous years [3]. Consumption Trends - The summer season typically sees high consumption of starch sugar, with a year-on-year increase in corn starch consumption for starch sugar of 39,000 tons, totaling 1.95 million tons in the first seven months [4]. - The paper industry has maintained a higher operating rate, with corrugated paper and boxboard paper operating rates at 59.83% and 63.55%, respectively, both showing year-on-year increases [4]. - The price advantage of cassava starch is impacting corn starch consumption, as the price gap has narrowed to the lowest level in five years [4]. Future Outlook - As the peak stocking season approaches, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in demand, which may lead to a stronger price performance within a certain range [5]. - However, the long-term outlook remains bearish due to anticipated abundant corn production, which is expected to weaken prices [5].

Core Insights - The global starch and starch products market is projected to have significant growth, with China expected to hold a substantial market share by 2025 [2] - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the starch market, including production, sales, consumption, and the impact of COVID-19 on future developments in China [2][3] - Major companies in the starch industry include Archer Daniels Midland Company, Roquette Freres Co, Cargill, Emsland Group, Ingredion, Agrana Group AG, Avebe U.A., and Tate & Lyle [2][3] Industry Overview - The report categorizes the starch and starch products industry into various segments, focusing on production, consumption data, and future trends across regions such as China, the US, Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia, and India [3] - Different types of starch products are analyzed, including corn starch, cassava starch, potato starch, wheat starch, and others, with insights into their pricing, production volume, market share, and growth trends [3] Market Dynamics - The report outlines the supply and demand conditions for starch and starch products globally, including capacity, production, utilization rates, and development trends [5] - It also discusses the competitive landscape, highlighting the production volume, market share, and revenue of major companies in the starch sector from 2018 to 2025 [5] Regional Analysis - The report provides detailed insights into the market size and growth rates of starch and starch products in various regions, including China, the US, Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia, and India [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of downstream applications for starch products, such as textiles, paper and plywood, and adhesives, detailing consumption volumes and market shares in these sectors [3][6] Impact of COVID-19 - The report assesses the overall development status of the starch industry in various countries, including the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the market [6] - It highlights the international trade environment and policy factors that have influenced the starch and starch products industry during the pandemic [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For corn, the international corn price has an advantage due to the good initial growth condition in the US. In the domestic market, the cooling of imported corn auction transactions, strong selling intention of grain holders, increasing feed substitution of wheat, and weakening feed demand have led to a decline in corn prices. The corn futures price continued to fall this week, showing overall weakness [8]. - For corn starch, although the production loss of corn starch enterprises has reduced the supply pressure, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch futures price has also shown a weak oscillation recently [12]. - The strategy for both corn and corn starch is to focus on short - term trading [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The corn futures price fluctuated and declined this week. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The excellent rate of US corn is high, and the international corn price has an advantage. In the domestic market, the cooling of auction transactions, increased market supply, and substitution of wheat have led to weakening prices [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [7]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures price fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2656 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The production loss has reduced the supply pressure, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch price has shown a weak oscillation [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The corn futures September contract continued to decline, with a total position of 1030900 lots, an increase of 85554 lots compared with the previous week. The corn starch futures September contract also declined, with a total position of 247864 lots, an increase of 69516 lots compared with the previous week [18]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 30902, and the net short position decreased compared with the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 9506, and the net short position also decreased [24]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn was 196479, and that of corn starch was 21979 [30]. Spot Price and Basis - As of July 10, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2426.86 yuan/ton, and the basis between the September futures price and the spot price was + 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, with a slightly decreasing trend. The basis between the September futures price and the Jilin spot price was 194 yuan/ton [35][39]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 75 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 44 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [45]. Futures Spread - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn was 350 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [53]. Substitute Spread - As of July 10, 2025, the spread between wheat and corn was 18.64 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 139 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [58]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 88.6 tons, a decrease of 15.5 tons compared with the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 1.3 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared with the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 259.6 tons, a decrease of 12.8 tons compared with the previous week, and the shipping volume was 41.8 tons, an increase of 16.6 tons compared with the previous week [49]. - **Monthly Import**: In May 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 190,000 tons, a decrease of 860,000 tons (81.9%) compared with the same period last year and an increase of 10,000 tons compared with the previous month [67]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 10, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, a decrease of 0.38 days compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [71]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of May, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [75]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of July 4, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 119.72 yuan/head, and that of purchased piglets was - 26.26 yuan/head [79]. - **Processing Profit**: As of July 11, 2025, the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 66 yuan/ton. The processing profit of corn alcohol in Henan was - 585 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 399 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 85 yuan/ton [84]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.436 million tons, an increase of 1.88% [88]. - **Starch Production and Inventory**: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 536,700 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared with the previous week; the national corn starch production was 259,400 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly operation rate was 50.14%, a decrease of 1.06% compared with the previous week. As of July 9, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.337 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared with the previous week, a weekly increase of 1.83%, a monthly increase of 2.14%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.97% [92]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of July 11, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 7.67%, a decrease of 1.05% compared with 8.72% in the previous week. The implied volatility continued to decline this week and was at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For corn, due to the intensifying Sino - US trade tensions, some US farmers are increasing corn planting area. In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast is almost exhausted, and traders are reluctant to sell. The supply in the North China and Huanghuai regions is also decreasing, while the deep - processing industry's demand is rising. The drought in the wheat - producing areas indirectly boosts the corn price. The planting area of new - crop corn in the Northeast is expected to remain stable. The recent corn futures price has increased, and short - term long - position participation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand situation is weak, with continuous losses in industry profits, a decline in the开机率 of corn starch enterprises, and a decrease in supply pressure. However, the downstream demand is poor, and the industry inventory remains high. The recent starch futures price has increased with the corn price, and short - term long - position participation is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of 25 - corn starch futures is 2361 yuan/ton, and that of 27 - corn starch futures is 2721 yuan/ton with a 12 - yuan increase. The 9 - 1 corn monthly spread is 85 yuan/ton, and the 7 - 9 corn starch monthly spread is - 79 yuan/ton with a 16 - yuan decrease. The futures positions of active contracts for yellow corn and corn starch are 95602 hands and 1473106 hands respectively. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn and corn starch are - 46511 hands and - 189933 hands respectively. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn and corn starch are 32318 hands and 112229 hands respectively. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 420 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn futures is 484 cents/bushel. The total position of CBOT corn is 1707988 contracts with a decrease of 16007 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 219843 contracts with a decrease of 14339 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2292.55 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2590 yuan/ton, 2760 yuan/ton, and 2740 yuan/ton respectively. The import CIF price of corn is 2210.55 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 0 US dollars/ton. The basis of the corn main contract is - 68.45 yuan/ton, and the basis of the corn starch main contract is - 131 yuan/ton. The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 450 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted planting areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 377.63 million hectares, 33.55 million hectares, 50 million hectares, 294.92 million hectares, and 26.8 million hectares respectively. The predicted yields are 126 million tons, 22.3 million tons, 6.4 million tons, 44.74 million tons, and 0.3 million tons respectively. The corn inventory in southern ports is 162 tons with a 2.5 - ton decrease, and the deep - processing corn inventory is 558.8 tons with a 29.9 - ton decrease [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory in northern ports is 526 tons with a 4 - ton decrease. The monthly import volume of corn is 8 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 20.35 tons with a 0.93 - ton decrease. The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 tons with a 66.4 - ton decrease [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of sample feed corn is 35.74 days. The deep - processing corn consumption is 125.48 tons with a 0.95 - ton decrease. The alcohol enterprise's startup rate is 48.96% with a 4.89% decrease, and the starch enterprise's startup rate is 58.37% with a 4.43% increase [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.18% with a 0.65% increase, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.9% with a 0.28% increase. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for corn is 10.05% and 10.06% respectively [2]. Industry News - The 2025 US corn planting season has begun. Due to the intensifying Sino - US trade tensions, some farmers are increasing corn planting area. As of April 24, Ukraine has sown 200.1 million hectares of spring grains, accounting for 35% of the planned area [2].