Market Overview - As of October 31, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 12,504 corn starch futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - National corn processing volume for the week of October 23-29 was 597,300 tons, an increase of 23,300 tons from the previous week [1] - Weekly corn starch production reached 304,500 tons, up 16,800 tons from the prior week, with an operating rate of 58.86%, reflecting a 3.25% increase [1] - The top 20 futures companies held a total of 157,000 long positions and 215,800 short positions in corn starch, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.73 and a net position decrease of 2,454 contracts [1] Industry Insights - According to Guangzhou Futures, the recent fluctuation in the starch-corn price spread is attributed to two main factors: the reduction of industry inventory and improved corn quality concerns in North China following rainfall, suggesting that the deep processing corn purchase prices may gradually align with feed corn prices [2] - As new season corn supply increases, the pressure on raw corn supply is rising, leading to a decline in corn starch cost support. Additionally, the competitive advantage of cassava starch continues to squeeze the demand for corn starch [3] - Despite the ongoing low operating rates compared to previous years, recent good sales performance has led to a slight decrease in corporate inventory. As of October 29, total corn starch inventory across enterprises was 1,128,000 tons, down 12,000 tons week-on-week, with a weekly decline of 1.05% and a monthly decline of 0.97%, but a year-on-year increase of 36.89% [3] - The market for starch is expected to fluctuate in tandem with the corn market, with a short-term outlook of cautious observation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report systematically reviews the price spread between Chinese corn starch and corn from 2021 - 2025, aiming to analyze the profit - gaming logic of the starch industry under the over - supply situation. The main influencing factors of the spread are "cost - supply and demand". The price change of corn at the cost end is the basis for affecting the spread, while the supply - demand relationship of starch is the core driver of the spread's fluctuation. The supply and demand of starch are mainly reflected through processing profit, operating rate, and inventory. High inventory and high operating rate jointly form the greatest downward pressure on the spread, while low inventory and low operating rate are the core drivers for the spread to expand. High inventory limits the upward space of the spread, and industrial concentration strengthens the bottom support of the spread. In the future, the high inventory of starch serves as a major resistance, and the progress of inventory clearance will be a key observation indicator [1][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Corn Starch Industry Chain Situation - Corn starch accounts for about 52% of the deep - processed consumption of corn. Its price is strongly influenced by the cost of corn and its own fundamentals. China's corn starch is mainly self - sufficient, with imports less than 1%. The main production areas are Shandong, Heilongjiang, and Hebei, accounting for 41%, 25%, and 7% respectively [5]. - The supply - related indicators of corn starch include production capacity, operating rate, cost - profit, etc. Downstream consumption is concentrated in starch sugar and papermaking. There is a substitution relationship between starch sugar and white sugar, and the substitution effect is evident when the price difference exceeds 1500 yuan/ton. The price difference between white sugar and F55 high - fructose corn syrup this year has been maintained at a relatively high level of 2500 - 2700 yuan/ton, and the substitution continues. The operating rate of corrugated paper and boxboard is relatively stable, with an annual change of about 5% [6]. 3.2 Corn Starch Production Capacity Changes - In recent years, the production capacity of corn starch has been expanding. In 2024, the production capacity slightly declined to 2630 million tons but still remained in an over - supply situation. The production capacity is mainly concentrated in Shandong, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Jilin. Since 2020, the industry has witnessed intensified competition, and production capacity has been increasingly concentrated in leading enterprises. The over - supply has compressed industry profits and limited the upward space of the spread, while the concentration has strengthened the bottom support of the spread [9][10][11]. 3.3 Corn Starch and Corn Price Spread Review 3.3.1 2021: Starch Supply - Demand Dominated - The spread showed an M - shaped trend, fluctuating between 300 - 600 yuan/ton. From January to March, the spread widened from 350 to 600 yuan/ton due to high corn prices, limited starch operating rate, and tight inventory. From April to July, it narrowed to around 350 yuan/ton as both corn and starch faced supply - demand pressure. From August to October, it widened again to 600 yuan/ton because of the rebound of corn prices and low starch operating rate. From November to December, it narrowed as starch production increased while demand growth was slower [15][16]. 3.3.2 2022: Strong Cost Support - The spread had a larger amplitude and showed a narrowing trend. From January to February, it expanded from 350 to 580 yuan/ton due to high raw material prices and low operating rate. From March to October, it continuously narrowed to 80 yuan/ton under factors such as weak demand, over - supply, and profit - driven price cuts. From November to December, it fluctuated between 100 - 250 yuan/ton as both corn and starch were in a weak supply - demand balance [19][20]. 3.3.3 2023: Low Operating Rate - The spread showed an oscillating trend with a slowly rising center of gravity. From January to June, it widened to 400 yuan/ton due to stable corn prices and low operating rate caused by continuous losses in processing profit. From July to December, it slightly increased with a shrinking amplitude. In July - August, it narrowed due to high corn prices and weak starch supply - demand. After September, it slightly increased as new - season corn was listed [22][24]. 3.3.4 2024: Weak Supply - Demand - The spread fluctuated between 300 - 500 yuan/ton. From January to May, it first rose and then fell. In January, it reached 500 yuan/ton due to good starch demand and high operating rate. After February, it narrowed to 380 yuan/ton as corn prices rose and processing profit declined. From June to December, it also first rose and then fell. From June to early July, it slightly widened due to limited corn supply and good starch demand. From mid - July to December, it continuously narrowed as new - season corn production was expected to be high and starch inventory accumulated [25][27]. 3.3.5 2025: Supply Pressure - The spread's fluctuation amplitude was about 100 yuan/ton. From January to mid - March, it widened from 300 to 400 yuan/ton as corn prices rose and starch operating rate was high. From late March to early August, it oscillated between 340 - 400 yuan/ton due to corn price fluctuations and weak starch supply - demand. From mid - August to the present, it has been narrowing as new corn was listed, starch inventory remained high, and cassava starch squeezed the demand for corn starch [31]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - From 2021 - 2025, the spread oscillated with a narrowing range, from 300 - 600 yuan/ton in 2021 to 280 - 400 yuan/ton in 2025, and the high point declined from 600 to 400 yuan/ton. The spread showed seasonal patterns. The spread is mainly affected by "cost - supply and demand", with corn price as the basis and starch supply - demand as the core driver. Starch inventory is a key factor, and "high operating rate + high inventory" is the greatest downward pressure on the spread, while "low operating rate + low inventory" is the core driver for the spread to expand. In the future, the high inventory of starch is a major resistance, and the spread may continue to narrow. Attention should be paid to the change in starch inventory [35][36][40].

Core Insights - The demand for cassava starch, a key ingredient in bubble tea, is increasing rapidly due to the growth of the tea beverage market in China and globally, with the market size expected to exceed 350 billion yuan in 2024 and reach 374.93 billion yuan by 2025 [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The opening of the China-Laos Railway has facilitated the import of cassava starch from Southeast Asia, particularly Laos, making it a primary choice for companies in Southwest China [2][3] - A recent train carrying 625 tons of cassava starch from Laos arrived in Luzhou, Sichuan, after a five-day journey, indicating the efficiency of the new logistics route [2] Group 2: Cost and Efficiency Improvements - The China-Laos Railway has significantly reduced transportation time and costs compared to previous sea-rail combined transport methods, enhancing trade activity between the regions [3] - Logistics costs have decreased by 35%, and customs clearance efficiency has improved by 10% in cities like Neijiang, which aims to become a distribution center for cassava starch imports [3] Group 3: Industry Expansion - The increasing trade volume is leading to an extension of the industrial chain, with companies in Sichuan negotiating partnerships with leading cassava starch producers in Laos to enhance supply stability and support local farmers [4] - Processed cassava starch is versatile, being used not only in bubble tea but also in various food products, pharmaceuticals, and as raw materials for alcohol, showcasing its broad application [4]

Core Viewpoint - The corn starch market is experiencing low prices due to a combination of high inventory levels and reduced demand, with expectations of short-term price fluctuations followed by a long-term decline as raw material prices weaken [2][3][5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Corn prices are at a five-year low, with the national standard second-grade corn price at 2300 RMB/ton, down 70 RMB/ton year-on-year, a decrease of approximately 2.95% [2]. - Corn starch prices are also at a five-year low, with the Shandong national standard first-grade corn starch price at 2890 RMB/ton, down 50 RMB/ton year-on-year, a decrease of about 1.70% [2]. - Domestic corn starch inventory increased by 8.47 million tons in the first seven months of the year, while production decreased by 830,400 tons, leading to a net supply increase of 7.68 million tons [3]. - Major corn starch enterprises have seen a decrease in delivery volume by 809,400 tons year-on-year, indicating lower consumption compared to previous years [3]. Consumption Trends - The summer season typically sees high consumption of starch sugar, with a year-on-year increase in corn starch consumption for starch sugar of 39,000 tons, totaling 1.95 million tons in the first seven months [4]. - The paper industry has maintained a higher operating rate, with corrugated paper and boxboard paper operating rates at 59.83% and 63.55%, respectively, both showing year-on-year increases [4]. - The price advantage of cassava starch is impacting corn starch consumption, as the price gap has narrowed to the lowest level in five years [4]. Future Outlook - As the peak stocking season approaches, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in demand, which may lead to a stronger price performance within a certain range [5]. - However, the long-term outlook remains bearish due to anticipated abundant corn production, which is expected to weaken prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Hunan Huaihua region has become the most convenient international corridor connecting ASEAN for Hunan and the central region, serving as the only ASEAN cargo aggregation center in Hunan, with significant growth in import and export activities in the first half of the year [1] Group 1: Transportation and Logistics - 70% of the cargo through the Western Land-Sea New Corridor is transported via Huaihua to ASEAN, with a fixed train service known as "scheduled train" facilitating international freight [3] - A scheduled freight train carrying 50 containers, loaded with over 500 tons of goods including fertilizers and auto parts, can reach Vientiane, Laos in three days, while returning with local products [3][5] Group 2: Import and Export Growth - The establishment of a "point-to-point" cooperation mechanism among customs in Huaihua, Yunnan, and Guangxi has led to a rapid increase in the import of high-quality agricultural products from ASEAN, with over 40,000 tons of cassava starch imported in the first half of the year [5] - A total of 816 standard containers of imported fruits were transported, valued at 37.78 million yuan, including durians, longans, and bananas from Southeast Asia, enhancing domestic consumer choices [7] Group 3: Cost and Efficiency Improvements - The transportation of small agricultural machinery from Hunan to Laos via Huaihua International Land Port has seen a significant reduction in transit time, now taking only five days instead of the previous 25 days, while costs have decreased from 32,000 yuan to 17,000 yuan for a fully loaded 40-foot container [11]

Core Insights - The global starch and starch products market is projected to have significant growth, with China expected to hold a substantial market share by 2025 [2] - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the starch market, including production, sales, consumption, and the impact of COVID-19 on future developments in China [2][3] - Major companies in the starch industry include Archer Daniels Midland Company, Roquette Freres Co, Cargill, Emsland Group, Ingredion, Agrana Group AG, Avebe U.A., and Tate & Lyle [2][3] Industry Overview - The report categorizes the starch and starch products industry into various segments, focusing on production, consumption data, and future trends across regions such as China, the US, Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia, and India [3] - Different types of starch products are analyzed, including corn starch, cassava starch, potato starch, wheat starch, and others, with insights into their pricing, production volume, market share, and growth trends [3] Market Dynamics - The report outlines the supply and demand conditions for starch and starch products globally, including capacity, production, utilization rates, and development trends [5] - It also discusses the competitive landscape, highlighting the production volume, market share, and revenue of major companies in the starch sector from 2018 to 2025 [5] Regional Analysis - The report provides detailed insights into the market size and growth rates of starch and starch products in various regions, including China, the US, Europe, Japan, Southeast Asia, and India [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of downstream applications for starch products, such as textiles, paper and plywood, and adhesives, detailing consumption volumes and market shares in these sectors [3][6] Impact of COVID-19 - The report assesses the overall development status of the starch industry in various countries, including the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the market [6] - It highlights the international trade environment and policy factors that have influenced the starch and starch products industry during the pandemic [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For corn, the international corn price has an advantage due to the good initial growth condition in the US. In the domestic market, the cooling of imported corn auction transactions, strong selling intention of grain holders, increasing feed substitution of wheat, and weakening feed demand have led to a decline in corn prices. The corn futures price continued to fall this week, showing overall weakness [8]. - For corn starch, although the production loss of corn starch enterprises has reduced the supply pressure, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch futures price has also shown a weak oscillation recently [12]. - The strategy for both corn and corn starch is to focus on short - term trading [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The corn futures price fluctuated and declined this week. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The excellent rate of US corn is high, and the international corn price has an advantage. In the domestic market, the cooling of auction transactions, increased market supply, and substitution of wheat have led to weakening prices [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [7]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures price fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2656 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The production loss has reduced the supply pressure, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch price has shown a weak oscillation [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The corn futures September contract continued to decline, with a total position of 1030900 lots, an increase of 85554 lots compared with the previous week. The corn starch futures September contract also declined, with a total position of 247864 lots, an increase of 69516 lots compared with the previous week [18]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 30902, and the net short position decreased compared with the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 9506, and the net short position also decreased [24]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn was 196479, and that of corn starch was 21979 [30]. Spot Price and Basis - As of July 10, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2426.86 yuan/ton, and the basis between the September futures price and the spot price was + 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, with a slightly decreasing trend. The basis between the September futures price and the Jilin spot price was 194 yuan/ton [35][39]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 75 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 44 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [45]. Futures Spread - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn was 350 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [53]. Substitute Spread - As of July 10, 2025, the spread between wheat and corn was 18.64 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 139 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [58]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 88.6 tons, a decrease of 15.5 tons compared with the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 1.3 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared with the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 259.6 tons, a decrease of 12.8 tons compared with the previous week, and the shipping volume was 41.8 tons, an increase of 16.6 tons compared with the previous week [49]. - **Monthly Import**: In May 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 190,000 tons, a decrease of 860,000 tons (81.9%) compared with the same period last year and an increase of 10,000 tons compared with the previous month [67]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 10, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, a decrease of 0.38 days compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [71]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of May, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [75]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of July 4, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 119.72 yuan/head, and that of purchased piglets was - 26.26 yuan/head [79]. - **Processing Profit**: As of July 11, 2025, the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 66 yuan/ton. The processing profit of corn alcohol in Henan was - 585 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 399 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 85 yuan/ton [84]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.436 million tons, an increase of 1.88% [88]. - **Starch Production and Inventory**: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 536,700 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared with the previous week; the national corn starch production was 259,400 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly operation rate was 50.14%, a decrease of 1.06% compared with the previous week. As of July 9, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.337 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared with the previous week, a weekly increase of 1.83%, a monthly increase of 2.14%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.97% [92]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of July 11, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 7.67%, a decrease of 1.05% compared with 8.72% in the previous week. The implied volatility continued to decline this week and was at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For corn, due to the intensifying Sino - US trade tensions, some US farmers are increasing corn planting area. In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast is almost exhausted, and traders are reluctant to sell. The supply in the North China and Huanghuai regions is also decreasing, while the deep - processing industry's demand is rising. The drought in the wheat - producing areas indirectly boosts the corn price. The planting area of new - crop corn in the Northeast is expected to remain stable. The recent corn futures price has increased, and short - term long - position participation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand situation is weak, with continuous losses in industry profits, a decline in the开机率 of corn starch enterprises, and a decrease in supply pressure. However, the downstream demand is poor, and the industry inventory remains high. The recent starch futures price has increased with the corn price, and short - term long - position participation is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of 25 - corn starch futures is 2361 yuan/ton, and that of 27 - corn starch futures is 2721 yuan/ton with a 12 - yuan increase. The 9 - 1 corn monthly spread is 85 yuan/ton, and the 7 - 9 corn starch monthly spread is - 79 yuan/ton with a 16 - yuan decrease. The futures positions of active contracts for yellow corn and corn starch are 95602 hands and 1473106 hands respectively. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn and corn starch are - 46511 hands and - 189933 hands respectively. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn and corn starch are 32318 hands and 112229 hands respectively. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 420 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn futures is 484 cents/bushel. The total position of CBOT corn is 1707988 contracts with a decrease of 16007 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 219843 contracts with a decrease of 14339 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2292.55 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2590 yuan/ton, 2760 yuan/ton, and 2740 yuan/ton respectively. The import CIF price of corn is 2210.55 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 0 US dollars/ton. The basis of the corn main contract is - 68.45 yuan/ton, and the basis of the corn starch main contract is - 131 yuan/ton. The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 450 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted planting areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 377.63 million hectares, 33.55 million hectares, 50 million hectares, 294.92 million hectares, and 26.8 million hectares respectively. The predicted yields are 126 million tons, 22.3 million tons, 6.4 million tons, 44.74 million tons, and 0.3 million tons respectively. The corn inventory in southern ports is 162 tons with a 2.5 - ton decrease, and the deep - processing corn inventory is 558.8 tons with a 29.9 - ton decrease [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory in northern ports is 526 tons with a 4 - ton decrease. The monthly import volume of corn is 8 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 20.35 tons with a 0.93 - ton decrease. The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 tons with a 66.4 - ton decrease [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of sample feed corn is 35.74 days. The deep - processing corn consumption is 125.48 tons with a 0.95 - ton decrease. The alcohol enterprise's startup rate is 48.96% with a 4.89% decrease, and the starch enterprise's startup rate is 58.37% with a 4.43% increase [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.18% with a 0.65% increase, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.9% with a 0.28% increase. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for corn is 10.05% and 10.06% respectively [2]. Industry News - The 2025 US corn planting season has begun. Due to the intensifying Sino - US trade tensions, some farmers are increasing corn planting area. As of April 24, Ukraine has sown 200.1 million hectares of spring grains, accounting for 35% of the planned area [2].