Group 1 - The upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and US President Trump on August 15 in Alaska is expected to influence market sentiment positively, leading to a decline in oil and gold prices [1][6]. - The S&P 500 futures rose by over 0.1%, indicating a slight increase in US stock market expectations [1][7]. - European stock markets opened higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index up by 0.27%, and other major indices also showing positive movement [1]. Group 2 - The Vietnamese stock index increased by over 1%, surpassing the 1600-point mark, reaching a new historical high [2]. - The US dollar index fell by more than 0.1%, while the Japanese yen and euro saw slight increases [2]. - Bitcoin surged past $122,000, marking a near one-month high, driven by institutional and corporate investments [4][6]. Group 3 - US Treasury yields declined across the board, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dropping by more than 1 basis point [3]. - Crude oil prices fell by over 1.1% to below $63.20, while Brent crude dropped by over 0.9% to below $66 [5][13]. - Spot gold prices fell below $3360 per ounce, with a daily decline of over 1%, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [6].

Core Viewpoint - In July 2025, major asset performance was led by the ChiNext Index, followed by oil and the CSI 500, with a general upward trend in risk assets, particularly in Chinese markets, while commodities showed mixed results [1][2][14]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In July, risk assets mostly rose, with Chinese assets leading the way and U.S. stocks reaching new highs, while domestic commodities experienced low-level increases [2][14]. - The performance of commodities was predominantly positive, with oil prices rising due to multiple favorable factors, while copper prices retreated due to lower-than-expected copper tariffs [2][17]. - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with technology stocks showing significant resilience due to strong earnings reports [2][19]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic landscape in July 2025 was characterized by a divergence between hard and soft data in the U.S., while China's soft data indicated a slowdown [4][62]. - The domestic "stock-bond seesaw" effect deepened, with the total A-share index rising by 4.7% in July, while the yield on 10-year government bonds increased by 5.75 basis points to 1.71% [2][32]. Group 3: Key Drivers of Equity Assets - Future drivers for equity assets may include "profitability and risk appetite," with A-shares needing to respond to fundamental factors such as PPI trends and mid-year earnings [5][62]. - The reduction of uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China tariffs could enhance short-term export certainty, as recent high-level trade talks indicated a potential extension of tariff measures [5][62]. - New technological themes, such as advancements in artificial intelligence, are expected to create investment opportunities [5][62]. Group 4: Market Timing Signals - The M1-BCI-PPI timing system indicated a slight improvement in overall positive signals despite a slowdown in actual GDP growth [6][62]. - The stock-bond valuation ratio showed a return to neutrality, suggesting that while equity assets have lost some advantage, the overall score still leans towards equities [7][62]. Group 5: Sector Performance - In July, over 90% of industries in the domestic market reported positive returns, with growth and cyclical sectors leading the gains, particularly in steel, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials [2][32][44]. - The real estate sector saw a widening year-on-year decline in sales, with second-hand home sales showing more resilience compared to new homes [2][42]. Group 6: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market showed a general upward trend in July, with significant increases in domestic pricing for black metals and polysilicon, while international oil and copper prices exhibited mixed performance [17][62]. - The Brent crude oil futures price increased by 7.3% in July, driven by geopolitical factors and tariff negotiations, although it faced a pullback in early August [17][62].

日元兑美元涨超0.6%。美元指数跌超0.2%。欧元涨超0.2%。瑞士法郎涨约0.2%。 21日周一，欧美关税谈判尚未明朗之际，美股期货小幅走高，欧股持平观望。日本执政联盟惨败，引发政治不确定性，短期利好日元 但打压日本股市，日元一度涨超0.7%。此外，黄金小幅走高，油价小幅下跌。 以下为核心资产走势： 美股三大指数期货均涨超0.2%。 欧股开盘基本持平，泛欧股指、德股基本持平。 贸易方面，欧盟各国本周开会准备"应急预案"，防止特朗普8月1日强推高关税、导致欧美贸易谈判破裂。 美债收益率四日连跌，基准10年期美债收益率下行约3个基点。 现货黄金涨超0.4%，现货白银涨超0.6%。 标普500股指期货小幅涨超0.2%。 | 泛欧股指、德股基本持平。个股中，车企Stellantis NV上半年亏损23亿欧元（约合27亿美元），主要因为重组费用、销量下滑以及美国 | | --- | 关税的冲击。 | -- 德国DAX30 | 7 | 24,520.45 | 24,240.00 | + 4.46 | +U.UI70 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 脂 英国富时100 ...

Core Viewpoint - The intensification of tariff threats by Trump ahead of the negotiation deadline on July 9 has heightened market tensions, leading to declines in U.S. stock futures, European stocks, and fluctuations in Asian markets, while safe-haven assets like the yen, Swiss franc, and gold saw slight increases [1][10]. Market Performance - U.S. stock futures for the three major indices fell over 0.3% [1][7]. - European stocks experienced widespread declines, with the German DAX and UK FTSE both down over 0.2%, and the French CAC down over 0.7% [1][8]. - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.1%, while the Tokyo Stock Price Index fell by 0.04%, and the South Korean Composite Index dropped by 2% [1]. Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2%, while the British pound and euro increased by over 0.1%, and the South Korean won rose by over 0.4% [2]. - The Japanese yen appreciated by approximately 0.4%, and the Swiss franc rose by over 0.2% [2][13]. Commodity Prices - Spot gold saw a slight increase of about 0.3%, while spot silver declined by approximately 0.2% [3][16]. - U.S. crude oil prices fell by over 0.3%, and Brent crude oil dropped by over 0.5% [4]. Cryptocurrency Trends - Bitcoin experienced a decline of about 0.4%, and Ethereum fell by approximately 1.5% [5]. Investor Sentiment - Some investors are adopting a cautious approach, holding more cash in their portfolios due to concerns about market optimism among other fund managers, leading to reduced equity positions [6].

Market Overview - US stock index futures and European stocks rose due to progress in multiple trade negotiations, while Asian markets remained flat [1] - The Japanese stock market increased by 0.8% as Japan's chief negotiator extended their stay in the US to seek an agreement [4] - Canadian withdrawal of the digital services tax for tech companies aims to restart negotiations with the US, strengthening the Canadian dollar and boosting US tech stock futures [1] Asset Performance - Major US stock index futures rose, with Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures up approximately 0.5%, and S&P 500 futures also increasing by about 0.5% [2] - European stocks saw slight gains, with the pan-European index, UK stocks, and French stocks rising over 0.1%, while German stocks increased by over 0.2% [3] - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 0.8% following the extension of negotiations in the US [4] Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar index fell by approximately 0.2%, while the Japanese yen rose over 0.5% [5] - The South Korean won rose over 1% to its highest level since October last year, currently up about 0.7% [6] - Spot gold and silver increased by about 0.6% [9] - Crude oil prices declined, with US oil down about 0.4% and Brent oil down about 0.2% [10] Geopolitical and Trade Developments - Easing geopolitical risks and expectations of imminent trade agreements have added momentum to risk assets [12] - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump agreed to restart negotiations aiming for an agreement by July 21 [13] - French Finance Minister Eric Lombard indicated that the EU is likely to reach some form of trade agreement with the US before the July 9 deadline to avoid significant tariffs on EU products [13] - India's trade team has also extended their stay in Washington to resolve differences before the July 9 deadline [13]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices have continued to decline, with a daily drop of 2%, currently reported at $3260.99 per ounce [1]

Group 1 - Major asset management institutions have reached a consensus to "sell America," collectively reducing allocations in US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar [1][2] - The largest 15 asset management firms, managing over $20 trillion, are seen as a barometer for global capital flows [1][2] - There is a growing consensus among these institutions to increase allocations in Asian and European markets [1][2] Group 2 - US stocks have become the least favored globally, with overall allocations reduced to neutral levels since the beginning of the year [2][8] - European and Japanese stocks have been upgraded, becoming consensus long positions, while emerging markets remain in an overweight status [2][8] Group 3 - Institutions are generally reducing holdings in US and Japanese bonds, while increasing positions in UK, German, and Italian government bonds, as well as local bonds in emerging markets [4][5] - There is a strong preference for European credit bonds, while opinions on US credit bonds remain divided [4][5] Group 4 - In the foreign exchange market, there is a clear trend of reducing exposure to the US dollar while increasing positions in the euro and yen [6][8] - The Swiss franc has been upgraded but remains in a bearish stance overall, indicating a strong consensus against the US dollar [6][8] Group 5 - Precious metals, particularly gold, have been upgraded, while oil and other cyclical commodities have been downgraded [7][8] - The strongest consensus long positions include European and Japanese stocks, the euro, the yen, and gold, while the clear short consensus includes the US dollar, Swiss franc, Japanese bonds, US bonds, and oil [7][8] Group 6 - In April, emerging market stocks rebounded strongly, particularly in Latin America, as market tensions eased following changes in US policy [11] - The bond market performed well due to rising risk aversion, while credit bonds underperformed with widening spreads [11] Group 7 - By May, asset prices generally recovered, with global stock markets rising, led by US stocks, and credit bond spreads narrowing [13] - The improvement in market sentiment was driven by reduced tariff risks and lower global recession expectations, although the bond market showed signs of divergence due to concerns over fiscal deficits, particularly in the US [13]