阿根廷财政部于周五抛售美元，此举是为了在允许汇率更大波幅的新规生效首日，限制比索的贬值势 头。交易员估算，此次美元抛售规模在1.5亿至2亿美元之间。本周五是阿根廷新年首个交易日，也是其 全新外汇交易区间机制正式落地的日子，当日比索兑美元汇率下跌1.4%，跌至1美元兑换1475比索。去 年12月，阿根廷政府公布了这一新汇率框架。根据新规，比索的交易区间将按照月度通胀率同步扩大， 不再沿用此前每月波幅上限1%的限制。眼下，阿根廷距离1月9日的美元债券偿付日仅剩数日。（智通 财经） ...

与此同时，国际货币基金组织的最新数据显示，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比已经跌破了60%，创下30年来的新低。 这些数字背后，是一场正在全球范围 内悄然发生的货币格局重构。 乌拉圭央行在2025年12月27日宣布了一系列旨在提升本国比索使用比例的措施。 这些措施包括提高银行对美元贷款的资本金要求，同时取消部分比索存款 的准备金规定，以激励银行增加本币放贷。 当局还在考虑强制要求以外国货币标价的商品必须同时标注比索价格。 这些政策出自一个超过三分之二银行存款都以美元持有的国家。 乌拉圭人对美元的依赖始于20世纪下半叶的高通胀和货币贬值时期，数十年的经济不稳定 让国民对本国货币失去信心。 时至今日，自动取款机同时提供比索和美元，汽车、房产等大额交易仍以美元定价。 托洛萨行长指出，这种深度美元化给国家货币政策带来了严重制约。 本币存款不足限制了信贷供给，因为监管规定限制银行向收入以比索计价的家庭和企 业发放美元贷款。 就在宣布去美元化措施的前几天，乌拉圭央行意外降息50个基点。 这一决策的背景是乌拉圭11月通胀年率为4.1%，低于4.5%的官方目标水平。 乌拉圭央行 还下调了短期通胀预测，预计在国内进口价格走弱的背景下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is exploring strategies to encourage more countries to adopt the US dollar as their primary currency in response to the global trend of de-dollarization [1][2]. Group 1: Government Initiatives - Multiple government departments, including the Treasury and the White House, are involved in discussions about promoting dollarization, consulting experts in the field [1]. - A political figure connected to the White House expressed concerns about the diminishing use of the dollar in emerging markets, indicating a high-level interest in enhancing the dollar's international role [2]. Group 2: Focus on Argentina - Argentina is viewed as a prime candidate for dollarization due to its history of currency instability, although the government has not actively pursued this option [1][3]. - The Argentine economy minister recently ruled out the possibility of immediate dollarization, citing insufficient dollar reserves, but did not completely dismiss the idea [3]. Group 3: Market Stability and Future Policies - Following a period of crisis, Argentina's political landscape stabilized after recent elections, leading to expectations that the government may shift towards a more flexible exchange rate policy with US and IMF support [4]. - Concerns remain among bondholders that maintaining a fixed exchange rate could hinder the attraction of dollars needed to rebuild reserves [4]. Group 4: Debt and Economic Challenges - A significant portion of Argentina's debt has been lost to capital flight due to long-standing distrust in the peso, complicating the country's economic recovery [5]. - Experts suggest that without substantial investment in productive activities, the country will struggle to generate enough cash flow to service its debt [5].

Core Insights - Argentina's government announced the temporary suspension of export tariffs on major agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, from September 22 to October 31, effectively eliminating approximately 26% of export taxes, creating a significant opportunity for global buyers, particularly Chinese companies [1] - The immediate impact of this policy was a reduction in soybean prices, making them nearly 200 RMB per ton cheaper than Brazilian soybeans, coinciding with China's need to replenish its inventory before the U.S. harvest season [1] - Chinese enterprises quickly responded by securing orders for 10 ships, with rumors suggesting this could increase to 15 ships, totaling over 2 million tons, benefiting both Argentina's economy and its farmers [1] Export Policy Changes - The export policy was abruptly ended when Argentina reached a pre-set export declaration limit of $70 billion, leaving many soybean shipments unshipped [3] - This sudden policy shift was influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly following a meeting between Argentine President Javier Milei and former U.S. President Donald Trump, leading to a U.S. announcement of a $20 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina [3] U.S. Conditions and Market Reactions - The $20 billion agreement came with stringent conditions that were unfavorable to China, including the cancellation of Argentina's currency swap agreement with China and the restoration of export tariffs on agricultural products [5] - The announcement led to a swift decline in the Argentine stock market, erasing previous gains from the tax exemption policy [5] Importance of China to Argentina - The currency swap agreement with China is crucial for Argentina's economy, allowing it to purchase goods in RMB and alleviating dollar shortages [7] - China is Argentina's second-largest trading partner, especially in agricultural exports, with significant adjustments made to meet Chinese market standards [7] - Chinese investments in Argentina are long-term and span various sectors, providing employment opportunities and enhancing national competitiveness [7] Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. aid is seen as an attempt to reshape geopolitical dynamics in Latin America, pressuring Argentina to sever ties with China [9] - Argentina's Cabinet Chief emphasized the country's commitment to an independent foreign policy, rejecting the notion of abandoning cooperation with China [9] - The situation highlights the strategic competition between the U.S. and China in Latin America, particularly concerning resources like lithium, which are vital for future energy needs [11] Argentina's Dilemma - Argentina faces a challenging decision between seeking U.S. political support and maintaining its economic partnership with China [12] - The complexities of this geopolitical landscape underscore the importance of supply chain diversification and security in international trade [12] - Argentina's experience serves as a cautionary tale for resource-rich countries about the risks of using commodities as political tools [12]

Core Viewpoint - Argentina's President Milei faces a significant contradiction in his free-market reforms, as he resorts to using scarce dollar reserves to support the peso's value, which contradicts his core principles of free-market economics [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Challenges - Milei's government is seeking billions in aid from the Trump administration to prevent the peso from declining, with the U.S. recently purchasing pesos and establishing a $20 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina's central bank [1][6]. - Despite successfully cutting spending and curbing inflation, maintaining a strong peso is hindering investment and limiting the export capacity of the agricultural sector, consuming foreign reserves needed for economic shocks and debt repayment [1][6]. - Economists generally believe the peso is overvalued by 20% to 35%, and the peso has depreciated by 26% this year, making it the worst-performing currency tracked by the Dow Jones [3][6]. Group 2: Political Implications - Milei's approval rating has dropped from nearly 50% last year to 35%, with unemployment now surpassing inflation as the primary concern for voters ahead of the October 26 midterm elections [1][6]. - The strong peso policy, combined with significant spending cuts, has reduced inflation from nearly 300% last year to 32% in September, but the economy has not rebounded, leading to a political crisis [6][7]. Group 3: U.S. Support and Market Reactions - Trump's meeting with Milei indicated that U.S. aid would depend on Milei's performance in the midterm elections, causing a decline in the Argentine stock market [7]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra clarified that as long as Argentina continues to implement sound economic policies, U.S. support will persist, highlighting the importance of market perception in stabilizing the peso [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. intervention to stabilize the Argentine peso has failed to restore public confidence, leading to a market battle characterized by a "buy-sell" dynamic among investors [1]. Group 1: U.S. Intervention Efforts - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra has taken actions to prevent the depreciation of the peso, including direct market purchases and declaring it "undervalued" [1]. - The U.S. is considering expanding the initial $20 billion swap facility to $40 billion through private arrangements with international banks [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite initial rebounds in the peso following Becerra's commitment for assistance, the currency has depreciated against the dollar almost every trading day since September 29 [2]. - Market skepticism is reflected in the soaring short-term interest rates, which reached an alarming 157%, further straining the fragile economy [1]. Group 3: Election Impact and Capital Flight - The upcoming legislative elections are a central variable in market pricing, with fears that President Milei's potential defeat could lead to increased capital flight and further depreciation of the peso [6]. - Data from the Argentine Central Bank indicates that citizens have net purchased $18 billion over five months, averaging about $400 per resident, highlighting a trend of capital outflow [4]. Group 4: Economic Fundamentals - The peso's exchange rate does not adequately reflect the country's high inflation, which has risen by 12% since April, suggesting that the currency is overvalued [7]. - Historical parallels are drawn to past currency defense efforts, with analysts recalling the 1992 pound crisis as a cautionary tale for current interventions [6].

Group 1 - The core message of the news highlights the implications of the $20 billion currency swap negotiation initiated by the U.S. Treasury, which significantly impacted Argentina's 2035 dollar bonds, leading to a 4-cent increase in a single day, effectively reversing losses since the local elections [2][3] - The U.S. intervention aims to break Argentina's cycle of "depleting foreign reserves - currency depreciation - inflation rebound," with the central bank reportedly selling up to $678 million in reserves in a single day to maintain the agreed exchange rate with the IMF [2][3] - The $20 billion swap is designed to reshape market expectations regarding Argentina's debt repayment capabilities, alleviating depreciation pressure on the peso and stabilizing the market ahead of the midterm elections [3][4] Group 2 - Argentina's government faces a paradox of "reform commitments - electoral pressure - market trust," as austerity measures have reduced inflation from 289% to 34%, but GDP is projected to decline by 2.1% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with rising poverty rates [4][5] - The U.S. aid is seen as a temporary relief for the "pain of reform," with historical patterns indicating that economic stimulus before elections often yields short-term effects [4][5] - Investors are cautioned about the disconnection between short-term liquidity injections and long-term economic fundamentals, as Argentina has a history of debt defaults and high financing costs, which could exceed 10% even if it returns to international bond markets in 2026 [5][6] Group 3 - Argentina's case provides a clear risk pricing framework for emerging market investments, with its 2035 bonds yielding 420 basis points above the emerging market average, reflecting compensation for inflation, credit history, and political volatility [6][7] - Despite a reduction in the external debt-to-GDP ratio from 90% in 2020 to 65% in 2023, Argentina's primary fiscal surplus remains low at 1.2% of GDP, below the emerging market safety line [6][7] - Geopolitical factors add complexity to risk pricing, as U.S. relations with other Latin American countries elevate Argentina's strategic value, but potential shifts in policy following elections could jeopardize aid agreements [6][7] Group 4 - The situation in Argentina offers three key insights for investors in emerging markets: prioritizing liquidity over profitability, recognizing mismatches between political and investment cycles, and quantifying geopolitical premiums [7][8] - Investors should be aware that liquidity injections in countries with low foreign reserves can lead to capital controls, affecting profit repatriation [7][8] - The requirement for "market-oriented foreign exchange reforms" as a condition for U.S. aid could lead to significant depreciation of the peso, posing risks for investors holding local currency assets [7][8]

Group 1 - The Argentine central bank has spent $1 billion to defend the peso amid a political crisis, selling over $678 million in foreign reserves in a single day, the highest since October 2019 [1] - The peso has been declining almost daily for the past two weeks, with a drop of 9% attributed to the political setbacks faced by President Milei's party in local elections [2] - The government is under pressure to maintain the current exchange rate mechanism, with economists estimating that it would require $9.75 billion to defend the peso until the elections, which may be too costly for the government [2] Group 2 - Despite the government's efforts to reassure investors and implement stricter trading controls, investor confidence remains low, leading to a poor performance of the Argentine S&P Merval index [2] - The country's risk index has reached its highest level since August 2024, hovering around 1500 basis points, indicating a lack of investor confidence [2] - Continuous dollar sales may deplete foreign reserves, jeopardizing short-term debt repayments and potentially leading to increased bond issuance to cover funding gaps [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Central Bank of the Philippines stated that efforts to defend the peso are ineffective [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank's interventions in the foreign exchange market have not yielded significant results in stabilizing the peso [1] - The peso's depreciation is attributed to external factors rather than domestic monetary policy [1] - The Governor emphasized the need for structural reforms to address the underlying issues affecting the peso's value [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America warns that Mexico faces a risk of economic recession, indicating that the peso is overvalued [1] Economic Outlook - The warning from Bank of America suggests a potential downturn in Mexico's economy, which could lead to a depreciation of the peso [1] - The assessment implies that current economic indicators may not support the peso's current valuation [1] Currency Valuation - The bank's analysis indicates that the peso is currently overvalued, which could have implications for investors and the broader market [1] - A reevaluation of the peso's value may be necessary if economic conditions worsen [1]