若纪要内容证实了更深层次的鸽派倾向，意味着美联储对经济前景或通胀压力的担忧加剧，那么市场对 夏季降息的预期将得到强化，进而降低实际降息的门槛。 在这种情境下，美元作为受利率预期影响最直接的资产之一，其吸引力将会减弱，面临下行压力，美 元"可能漏水"。这反映了市场对利率敏感性的高度关注，以及对美联储政策路径微小变化的放大效应。 与美联储政策的中心地位形成对比的是，特朗普政府的关税言论在当前外汇市场的影响力似乎正在边缘 化。 市场普遍展现出一种"见怪不怪"的态度，将这些关税威胁解读为谈判策略或政治姿态，而非预示着长 期、颠覆性的贸易政策转向。这种解读使得关税难以成为广泛推动美元走势的催化剂。 当前外汇市场的叙事主线已从喧嚣的贸易战前沿，悄然转回至更为根本的宏观经济驱动因素，其中美联 储的货币政策无疑占据了核心位置。 市场参与者正以一种近乎侦探般的细致，审视即将发布的6月FOMC会议纪要，试图从字里行间捕捉美 联储内部真实的鸽派温度。这份纪要的重要性被提升至"晴雨表"的高度，远超其作为历史记录的传统功 能。 其核心价值在于揭示委员会成员之间是否存在比公开声明或个别委员（如Waller和Bowman）的"鸽派低 语" ...

"关税公告对处于超买的新兴市场套利交易来说不是个好兆头，"道明外汇策略主管Mark McCormick表 示。哥伦比亚、巴西和智利的货币均下跌1.2%以上。 "目前情况仍不确定， 特朗普的这些信可能意在促成新一轮谈判，"Jefferies全球外汇主管Brad Bechtel表 示，"因此，我预计未来几周我们还会看到这方面的公告。" ...

智利比索下跌0.9%，为新兴市场货币中第二大跌幅。 ...

近期，墨西哥比索延续上半年强劲表现，在本周创下逾十个月来的最高水平。然而，随着美国对多国加 征关税的暂缓措施即将于7月9日到期，市场对比索后续走势日益审慎。多家机构预测显示，当前高位运 行的比索未来一年或将温和回调。 连续升值动能减弱，回调预期升温 墨西哥比索自2024年底受贸易紧张局势影响大幅贬值后，进入持续回升通道。根据路透社发布的外汇市 场调查，2025年前半年比索已累计升值13.2%，成为拉美表现最强劲的货币之一。其兑美元汇率从去年 底的20以上水平升至目前的18.7左右。 路透调查对22位外汇专家的中值预测显示，比索未来12个月内或将温和贬值5.5%，汇率水平预计从7月 2日的18.72下行至19.80。 根据墨西哥央行发布的《2025年6月私人部门经济专家预期调查》，分析师中值预测比索将在年底贬至1 美元兑20.13比索，较当前水平贬值约7%，反映出市场对其中长期走势趋弱的普遍预期。 分析人士指出，比索回调预期的背后，反映出市场对全球贸易政策变化的担忧。美国对多国加征关税 的"冻结期"即将于7月9日到期，若重启关税，将可能引发新一轮贸易摩擦。 市场目前普遍聚焦7月9日这一关键节点。届时，美国政府是 ...

Group 1 - TaiLong Pharmaceutical plans to apply for the registration and issuance of super short-term financing bonds not exceeding 800 million yuan, with a maturity of no more than 270 days, for purposes including replacing bank loans and supplementing working capital [1] - GuoXin Technology won a bid for a 46 million yuan automotive airbag ignition driver chip project, indicating its growing presence in the automotive semiconductor market [1] - GuoMai Technology expects a net profit increase of 60.52% to 100.33% for the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 125 million to 156 million yuan [2] Group 2 - ChangAluminum's subsidiary signed a 165 million yuan contract for the customized construction of a clinical and industrial base for a vaccine project, highlighting its involvement in the biopharmaceutical sector [3] - ZhongSalt Chemical acquired exploration rights for natural soda ash in Inner Mongolia for 929,000 yuan, expanding its resource base [4] - Six Kingdom Chemical announced the resignation of its deputy general manager, which may impact its operational strategy [5][6] Group 3 - FuYuan Pharmaceutical received a drug registration certificate for Bisoprolol Amlodipine tablets, indicating its expansion in the hypertension treatment market [7][8] - GuanShi Technology's subsidiary received a government subsidy of 7 million yuan, which is 45.29% of its net profit for the previous year, enhancing its financial position [9] - XiZhong Technology plans to repurchase shares worth between 75 million and 150 million yuan, aimed at employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives [10] Group 4 - BeiLu Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received approval for the raw material drug Iopromide, which is used as a contrast agent for various imaging examinations [12] - HongHui New Materials obtained a patent for a water-based protective paint for hardware parts, enhancing its product portfolio [13] - BoJi Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received two patents related to high bioavailability formulations, indicating innovation in biopharmaceutical technology [14] Group 5 - ChengJian Development received a cash dividend of 23.625 million yuan from its investment in Huaneng Capital, contributing to its investment income [15] - JiuZhou Pharmaceutical's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for Sildenafil Citrate orally disintegrating tablets, expanding its product offerings in the erectile dysfunction treatment market [16] - RuiAng Gene's subsidiary received a government subsidy of 176,290 yuan, supporting its operational activities [17] Group 6 - FengFan Technology plans to acquire 100% equity of a subsidiary for 48 million yuan, indicating strategic expansion in the renewable energy sector [18] - AoJing Medical's subsidiary received a medical device production license, allowing it to manufacture absorbable surgical dressings [19] - TaiLin Bio's subsidiary won land use rights for an industrial site, facilitating its high-performance filter project [20] Group 7 - KaiPu Bio received a patent for a method and device for analyzing genomic copy number variations, enhancing its capabilities in molecular diagnostics [21] - Shanghai KaiBao received a drug registration certificate for Phlegm-Heat Clearing Capsules, which can be used in the treatment of COVID-19 symptoms [23] - TuoJing Life received two patents for high uniformity streptavidin applications, improving its diagnostic product stability [25] Group 8 - AnKe Bio's AK2024 injection received approval for clinical trials, marking a significant advancement in cancer treatment [26] - HuanYuan Pharmaceutical expects a net profit of 142 million to 160 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting substantial growth [27] - JinHongShun terminated a major asset restructuring plan due to a lack of consensus among parties involved, impacting its strategic direction [28] Group 9 - HeZhan Energy signed a 177 million yuan contract for the sale of steel-concrete tower structures, indicating strong demand in the renewable energy sector [29] - InSai Group's acquisition plan for an 80% stake in ZhiZheTongXing was accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, indicating growth in its consulting business [30] - JiuDian Pharmaceutical received a drug registration certificate for Zinc Granules, enhancing its product line in gastrointestinal treatments [32] Group 10 - GuoYao Modern plans to publicly transfer a 51% stake in its subsidiary to optimize resource allocation [34] - GuoYao Modern's subsidiary received a drug registration certificate for Perindopril Indapamide tablets, expanding its hypertension treatment portfolio [36] - ZhongGong International signed a 175 million yuan engineering consulting service contract, showcasing its capabilities in project management [38] Group 11 - China Railway won contracts worth approximately 5.343 billion yuan for overseas construction projects, indicating its strong international presence [39] - JunPu Intelligent signed a framework contract for humanoid robot sales worth about 28.25 million yuan, reflecting growth in the robotics sector [41] - Sinopec's chairman resigned due to age, which may lead to changes in corporate governance [42] Group 12 - JiuFeng Energy's controlling shareholder plans to reduce their stake by up to 0.71%, indicating potential changes in ownership structure [44] - Zhejiang Oriental's subsidiary plans to establish a 1.74 billion yuan equity investment fund, focusing on strategic emerging industries [46] - ChenGuang New Materials received a government subsidy of 26 million yuan, significantly impacting its financial performance [48]

由于多项贸易谈判出现进展，美国股指期货和欧股上涨，亚洲股市整体持平。 日本股市涨0.8%，因为日本谈判代表延长访美时间寻求协议。加拿大撤回了对科技公司的数字服务税，目的是重启与美国 的谈判，加元走强，美股科技股期货也受提振。大漂亮法案不确定性尚存之际，美元指数小跌0.3%，彭博美元指数创下自 2005年以来最差的年初表现。 以下为核心资产走势： 美股三大指数期货全线走高，纳指100期货、道指期货涨约0.5%，标普500期货涨约0.5%。 欧股小幅走高，泛欧股指、英股、法股涨逾0.1%，德股涨逾0.2%。 日经225指数收涨0.8%，此前日本首席谈判代表延长了在美国的停留时间以继续谈判。 美油跌约0.4%，布油跌约0.2%。 比特币涨约0.2%，以太坊涨约1.4%。 地缘政治风险的迅速缓解和对即将达成贸易协议的预期，都为风险资产市场增添了顺风。 加拿大总理马克·卡尼和特朗普同意，两国将重启谈判，争取在7月21日前达成协议。 法国财长Eric Lombard表示，欧盟有望在7月9日最后期限前与美国达成某种形式的贸易协议，以避免美国对几乎所有欧盟 产品加征50%关税。 知情人士透露，印度的贸易团队也延长了在华盛顿的 ...

环境、社会和公司治理报告 股票代码:688513.SH | 阳光治理 | | | 创新质造 | 标准领航 | 生态药企 | | 履责于行 | ESG绩效 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 关于本报告 | 管理层致辞 | 走进苑东生物 | | | | | | 附录 | | 打造透明高效的管治体系 | | | 以品质守护生命 | | 苑东生物的国际答卷 | 从绿色工厂到零碳未来 | | 筑牢员工关爱与责任担 | | 当基石 | 与未来展望 | | | | | | | | | 关于本报告 | | 002 | 标准领航 | | | 履责于行 | | | | 苑东生物的国际答卷 | | | | | | 筑牢员工关爱与责任担当基石 | | | | 管理层致辞 | | 003 | 国际化战略 国际化认证 | | 042 042 员工福祉 | 践行多元雇佣 | 074 | 066 | | 043 | | | 国际化实施载体 | | 健康安全 | | 077 | | | 走进苑东生物 | | | | | | | | | | 044 | | | ...

悄然之间，全球汇市风起云涌！ 26日，美元指数跌破97关口，日内下跌一度达0.72%，创2022年2月以来新低，非美货币全面走强。值得一提 的是，随着新台币兑美元的大幅升值，投机资金显著增加。中国台湾"中央银行"已经要求海外投资者退出通过 ETF进行的新台币投机性押注。 让人意外的是，尽管非美货币今天都在上涨，但外汇市场似乎也是暗流不断，变数颇多。据路透调查，投资者 大幅减少泰铢多头仓位，对印度卢比的空头押注不断增加，对菲律宾比索转为看空。其中，这是自3月初以 来，投资者首次对菲律宾比索转为看跌，该货币本月已贬值约1.4%。 美元是一切变数的源头。摩根大通分析师警告，预期美国经济在2025 年下半年陷入衰退的可能性高达40%。 这项预测主要基于不断升级的关税，这些关税将引发停滞性通货膨胀情景。摩根大通因此对美元持悲观态度。 美元熊市 26日中国市场收盘之后，美元指数突然跌破97大关，日内下跌一度达0.72%，创2022年2月以来新低。非美货 币则全面走强，日元兑美元上涨近1%，英镑、韩元、欧元兑美元上涨0.7%，澳元兑美元上涨0.55%。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)发布报告称，由于美国关税和经济前景 ...

路透调查：投资者大幅减少泰铢多头仓位，对印度卢比的空头押注不断增加，对菲律宾比索转为看空。 ...

星展银行：亚洲美元需求下降，新加坡元利率因资金回流而降低 桥水基金：美国消费放缓波及多领域，房地产等行业面临压力 SEB Research：欧洲央行计划7月暂停降息，9月和12月或再降息两次 【机构分析】 SEB Research分析师指出，根据欧洲央行管理委员会多位成员在6月份会议后的评论，欧洲央行打算在7 月份暂停降息；分析师预测欧洲央行将会再进行两次降息，或将存款利率从当前的2.00%下调至 1.50%。目前预计这两次降息将分别发生在9月和12月。 星展银行策略师指出，亚洲对美元的需求已显著下滑，而那些持有大量美国资产的亚洲国家，其货币兑 美元的表现尤为坚挺。目前，众多亚洲投资者正积极考虑对冲美元风险，或将投资组合分散至非美元资 产。资金回流新加坡的现象已导致短期新加坡元利率大幅降低。自4月份美国宣布关税政策以来，美元 普遍遭遇抛售，其价值被严重高估。 德意志银行策略师表示，美国参议院批准的一项新的稳定币监管法案，有望强化美元在全球数字时代的 主导地位。若该法案得以通过，将与美元挂钩的稳定币（已占据市场大部分份额）进一步吸引更多外国 流动性。此举或将加速数字美元在不稳定经济体中的普及，且此过程无需依赖中 ...