周期半月谈 - 聚焦资源品与行业自律 20251207 摘要 有色金属价格将轮动上涨，降息和去美元化长期趋势不变，但短期受风 险偏好扰动。黄金市场前景乐观，受央行购金、ETF 购进及黄金代币化 推动，预计 2026 年黄金价格上涨空间可期，黄金股票估值具吸引力。 铜价短期暴涨因美国关税预期导致 LME 和 COMEX 价差扩大，美国市场 定价脱离基本面。2026 年美国虹吸效应或使非美地区面临紧仓风险， 但若 LME 挤仓或关税预期下降，美国可能重回基本面定价，带来阶段性 过剩风险。 铝价跟随铜价走势，全球电力紧张影响供应。国内产能见顶、海外能源 成本高企及投资周期约束使全球电解铝供应弹性减弱，预计 2025- 2030 年供给增速持续下滑，需牛市强化价格激励，偶发事件亦推动铝 价。 建材行业普遍经历盈利压力下的供给收缩，推荐消费建材和玻纤龙头。 细分赛道企业通过产品差异化获得超额利润，浮法玻璃龙头有望通过自 发冷修实现供给平衡并带动盈利修复。 Q&A 对于有色金属行业的整体看法是什么？ 我们继续保持对有色金属市场的乐观态度，认为其行情将持续波澜壮阔。受益 于江西地区的发展以及中美两国在 2026 年的积极财 ...

Group 1: Infrastructure and Investment - Major projects in various regions are progressing, which is crucial for expanding effective investment and supporting infrastructure investment growth [1] - Experts anticipate continued policy support for "two heavy" projects, which will further bolster economic stability [1] Group 2: Automotive Industry - The automotive market is experiencing a "promotion frenzy" with nearly 20 car manufacturers offering purchase tax subsidies to consumers who lock in orders by the end of 2025 [2] - This initiative is a response to upcoming adjustments in purchase tax and marks the beginning of year-end sales efforts by car companies [2] Group 3: Fund Management and Market Trends - In the fourth quarter, mutual funds are implementing purchase limits to manage large inflows and ensure stable operations [3] - New funds are also controlling their fundraising scales amid increasing uncertainties in the market [3] - The launch of "China's first domestic GPU" by Moore Threads on the STAR Market is seen as a significant step for both the company and the domestic computing power industry [3] Group 4: Commercial Aerospace - The domestic commercial aerospace sector is witnessing a dual breakthrough in technology and scale, with significant developments showcased at the 2025 Commercial Aerospace Forum [4] - The opening of major space projects to commercial entities is creating unprecedented opportunities in the industry [4] Group 5: Capital Market Support - Local governments are increasingly implementing measures to support capital market development, focusing on nurturing listed companies and facilitating financing for tech firms [5] - Policies from provinces like Shaanxi, Guangdong, and Zhejiang aim to guide capital towards innovation and emerging industries [5] Group 6: Phosphate Industry - Phosphate rock prices remain high due to a sustained price increase in chemical products, with market prices reported at 1016 CNY/ton for 30% grade [6] - Companies like Batian and Xingfa are actively acquiring phosphate resources, indicating an expansion in production capacity [6] Group 7: AI Glasses Market - The smart glasses market is experiencing a surge with new product launches from companies like Li Auto and Alibaba, indicating a growing interest in AI-integrated eyewear [7] - This trend is expected to have a profound impact on the AI glasses supply chain from both supply and demand perspectives [7] Group 8: Private Equity and Market Research - Private equity firms are actively conducting research to identify new investment opportunities, with a total of 1.3 million research sessions reported in the fourth quarter [8] - The electronics, healthcare, and integrated circuit sectors are among the most researched areas by private equity firms [8] Group 9: Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry - The lithium iron phosphate industry is seeing price increases as leading companies plan to raise processing fees by 3000 CNY/ton starting in 2026 [9] - The industry is expected to transition to a new phase focused on technology and value, moving away from intense competition [9] Group 10: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic supply chain is experiencing a decline in production across multiple segments, attributed to insufficient end-user demand [9] - Production reductions include a 0.96% decrease in polysilicon and a 15.95% decrease in silicon wafers for December [9]

Group 1: Oil and Chemical Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities forecasts Brent crude oil prices to range between $60-70 per barrel by 2026, with costs expected to stabilize [1] - The chemical industry is experiencing negative capital expenditure growth since 2024, with supply expected to contract due to the "anti-involution" trend and accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacity [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft emphasizes expanding domestic demand, combined with the onset of the US interest rate cut cycle, which is expected to open up demand for chemical products [1] - A dual bottom in supply and demand is anticipated, with strong policy expectations catalyzing a potential cyclical upturn in the chemical industry by 2026, leading to a "Davis Double Play" from valuation recovery to earnings growth [1] Group 2: Specific Chemical Sector Recommendations - PTA industry is operating at low levels, with increasing calls for anti-involution; recommended companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xinfon Ming, and Tongkun [1] - Polyester filament capacity is becoming concentrated, with industry self-discipline enhancing cyclical elasticity; recommended companies include Xinfon Ming, Tongkun, and Hengyi Petrochemical [1] - The spandex industry is expected to see increased concentration; recommended companies include Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber [1] - Global demand for pesticides is improving, with bottom-priced varieties likely to rebound; recommended companies include Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Shares, Jiangshan Shares, Guangxin Shares, and Lier Chemical [1] - Organic silicon capacity expansion is nearing completion, with supply-demand dynamics expected to improve; recommended companies include Hesheng Silicon Industry, Xin'an Shares, and Dongyue Silicon Material [1] - The titanium dioxide industry is facing challenges and opportunities; recommended company is Longbai Group [1] - Refining capacity is being optimized, with a shift from oil to chemicals enhancing effective supply; recommended companies include Sinopec, PetroChina, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical [1] Group 3: Demand-Supported Chemical Sectors - Strong pricing power from suppliers is expected to sustain high demand for potash fertilizers; recommended companies include Yara International and Dongfang Iron Tower [2] - Phosphate supply and demand remain tight, benefiting resource-based companies; recommended companies include Batian Shares, Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group, and Chuanheng Shares [2] - Strict quota policies are expected to sustain high demand for refrigerants; recommended companies include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [2] - Amino acids are expected to maintain their upward trend, with overseas capacity gradually exiting; recommended companies include New Hope Liuhe, Andisu, and Meihua Biological Technology [2] - The chlorinated sugar market is anticipated to see anti-involution, with significant potential for allulose; recommended companies include Jinhui Industrial, Bailong Chuangyuan, and Baolingbao Biology [2] - Vitamins are leading the current round of chemical price increases, entering the second phase; recommended companies include New Hope Liuhe and Zhejiang Medicine [2] - The EU's preliminary anti-dumping ruling is expected to reassess the value of overseas tires; recommended companies include Sailun Tire and Senqilin [2] - The civil explosives industry is developing steadily, with policy guidance likely accelerating industry consolidation; recommended companies include Guangdong Hongda, Yipuli, and Jiangnan Chemical [2] Group 4: New Materials and Technologies - Lightweight humanoid robots may benefit from PEEK as a key solution; recommended companies include Zhongyan Shares, Water Shares, and Guoen Shares [3] - AI is driving global demand for computing power, with electronic-grade PPO expected to grow; recommended companies include Shengquan Group and Dongcai Technology [3] - The domestic substitution of core chip materials, particularly photoresists, is accelerating; recommended companies include Wanrun Shares and Dinglong Shares [3]

Group 1: Market Supply and Demand - The overall supply of potassium chloride in 2025 is expected to be tight due to reduced production in Canada and escalating conflicts in the Middle East [2] - Despite improved relations between the US and Russia, transportation costs hinder Russian supply to China, limiting border trade [2] - Canadian products primarily serve North and South America, with limited supply to Asia, resulting in better market prices in China compared to Southeast Asia [2] Group 2: Project Progress - The mining rights review and ecological assessment for the Kunming Deyin Phosphate Mine project have been completed, with mining permit expected next year [2][3] - The project aims for an annual capacity of 2 million tons of raw ore and 1.1 million tons of concentrate, with a construction period of approximately 1.5 years [3] Group 3: Future Capacity Plans - The company plans to advance the second phase of the Laos Kaiyuan project, targeting an annual capacity of 1 million tons of potassium chloride, with a goal of reaching a total capacity of 3 million tons [3] - The phosphate project is also set to expand, with plans for a second phase of 2-3 million tons of raw ore after the first phase is operational [3] Group 4: Shareholding Information - The company holds 174 million shares of Qingdao Bank, with any potential reduction in holdings to be determined based on market conditions [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the energy storage industry, particularly focusing on independent energy storage stations in China, which have seen significant growth and investment opportunities [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Rapid Growth of Energy Storage**: Independent energy storage stations account for over 50% of new installations, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 70% in new capacity in the first half of 2025, totaling over 660 GWh in registered projects [1][3]. - **Policy Support Transition**: The shift from subsidy-based policies to capacity pricing models is a key driver for the rapid development of energy storage stations. This transition is expected to provide long-term stability and attract long-term investments [1][4][5][6]. - **Market-Based Profit Models**: The profitability of energy storage is moving from reliance on subsidies to market-based mechanisms, including spot market price differences, capacity fees, and frequency modulation markets. The establishment of a national spot market is imminent, allowing independent storage to participate in trading [6][7][8]. - **Surge in Project Registrations**: The increase in project registrations is attributed to the decentralization of the registration process to lower administrative levels, making it easier for individual investors to enter the market [1][9]. - **Impact on Lithium Supply Chain**: The growth in energy storage demand is driving lithium-ion battery production, which in turn affects the supply chain for lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolytes, and lithium iron phosphate, ultimately impacting phosphate demand. An estimated increase of around 2 million tons of phosphate is expected in 2025 due to this demand [1][13]. - **Phosphate Supply Constraints**: The domestic phosphate supply is tight, with high-quality resources concentrated among a few listed companies. New capacity is limited due to mining barriers and environmental regulations, leading to slow actual mining progress [1][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Trends**: In the first half of 2025, over 70% of bidding projects were funded by individuals or local governments rather than traditional large state-owned enterprises, indicating a shift in investment dynamics [10]. - **Impact on Traditional Energy Sources**: The increase in energy storage installations is expected to alter the competitive landscape for thermal and renewable energy sources, enhancing the capacity for renewable energy consumption [11][12]. - **Global Resource Distribution**: The global distribution of mineral resources is uneven, with Morocco holding approximately 68% of global phosphate reserves. China's phosphate reserves are estimated at around 3.7 billion tons [15]. - **Future Investment Opportunities**: Companies that can quickly release new supply or benefit from rising inventory prices, such as YunTuo Holdings and WanHua Chemical, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [18]. - **Carbonate Lithium Market Dynamics**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased by over 40%, influenced by supply disruptions and rising demand, particularly from the energy storage sector. Predictions indicate that by 2027, energy storage could become the largest demand sector for lithium [2][20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the energy storage industry's current state and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating strong operational performance and potential for future growth [3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.316 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.111 billion yuan, up 81.3% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Mining Services Business - The mining services segment generated a gross profit of 767 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17%. This decline was primarily due to the internal management transition of the Lubambe copper mine and the early-stage operations of TerraMining, which reduced revenue and gross profit from mining services [4]. Group 3: Resource Projects - Apart from the Lubambe copper mine, all resource projects met their production targets for the first half of 2025. The resource segment reported revenue of 2.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 238%, and a gross profit of 1.39 billion yuan, up 277% year-on-year. Copper metal production reached 39,442 tons, a year-on-year increase of 199%, while phosphate rock production was 174,000 tons, up 6% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The Lonshi copper mine's western area commenced production in Q4 2023, while the eastern area is in the early stages of construction. The eastern area is designed for underground mining with a planned production scale of 2.5 to 3.5 million tons per year, with a construction period of 4.5 years. Once operational, it is expected to produce for 12 years, with a combined annual output of approximately 100,000 tons of copper metal from both areas [6]. - The company plans to produce 79,400 tons of copper metal in 2025, an increase of 30,700 tons compared to 2024, representing a 63% year-on-year growth. Additionally, the planned phosphate rock production for 2025 is set at 300,000 tons [7].

Group 1 - The company, Batian Co., Ltd. (002170), announced on August 19 that in response to inquiries during a research meeting, it reported that in the second quarter, the production and sales of phosphate rock were both over 900,000 tons, with minimal inventory levels [1] - The company indicated that any existing inventory was only around 20,000 to 30,000 tons, highlighting a strong demand and efficient turnover [1] - In the first quarter, the production was approximately 450,000 tons, showing a significant increase in production and sales in the second quarter compared to the first [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Batian Co., Ltd. (002170) announced the national annual demand for phosphate rock is approximately 110 million tons, with recent price fluctuations being minimal [1] Group 2 - The company provided insights during a Q&A session with researchers, indicating stable pricing trends in the phosphate rock market [1]

Group 1 - The company Baitian Co., Ltd. (002170) announced on August 19 that the selling price of phosphate ore with a grade of 28% is approximately 870 yuan per ton [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Container Shipping Industry**: Benefiting from peak season and tariff rush, freight index has significantly increased, with core companies raising freight rates. Expected that freight rates on US routes may exceed last year's levels. Key companies to watch include COSCO Shipping and Yang Ming Marine Transport [1][2] - **Aviation Industry**: Despite disappointing traffic data during the Dragon Boat Festival, the summer travel season is expected to perform well due to low oil prices enhancing profit elasticity for airlines. Recommended companies include Huaxia Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, Spring Airlines, and major Hong Kong airlines [1][4] - **Logistics and Delivery**: The application of autonomous vehicle technology in logistics is widespread, significantly reducing costs. Companies like SF Express, ZTO Express, and JD Logistics are expected to benefit [1][5][6] - **Chemical Industry**: The CCPI index has declined due to falling oil prices and weak demand. The industry faces challenges from tariff policies and OPEC's production increase. Focus on essential domestic products and new materials for import substitution [1][7] - **Phosphate Mining**: Phosphate rock supply is expected to remain tight, with prices staying high. Companies like Yuntianhua and Batian are recommended due to delays in project approvals and complex geological conditions [1][10] Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Policy Impact**: Recent fluctuations in Trump's tariff policies have caused volatility in global markets, but core companies in the container shipping sector remain strong. The SCFI index rose by 31%, with significant increases in freight rates for US East and West routes [2] - **OPEC Production Increase**: OPEC plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels in July, which may lead to lower oil prices. However, US shale producers face high costs and weakened production capacity. Oil prices are expected to stabilize between $60 and $65 [2][30] - **Transportation Data**: Traffic data during the Dragon Boat Festival was below expectations, with a year-on-year growth of only 6-7%. This was attributed to adverse weather conditions [3] - **Chemical Industry Trends**: The CCPI index fell to 4,077 points, down 0.71%. The industry is experiencing structural opportunities due to the demand downturn and regulatory scrutiny following recent safety incidents [7][8][9] - **Phosphate Market Dynamics**: Delays in project approvals in Guizhou are expected to keep phosphate prices high. Companies like Yuntianhua and Batian are positioned well in this market [10] Additional Important Content - **Accidents in Chemical Industry**: Recent accidents in the chemical sector have raised concerns about safety regulations, potentially leading to stricter oversight and impacting supply chains [8][9] - **Gold Market Outlook**: The geopolitical climate and uncertainty surrounding tariffs are expected to drive gold prices to $4,000 per ounce within a year, supported by a decline in dollar credibility [15][16] - **Coal Market Performance**: The coal sector has shown weakness due to tariff changes and OPEC's production increase, but a rebound is anticipated in June as demand recovers [20][21] - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies in the gold sector, such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Shandong Gold, are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to their performance in the current market environment [19][31]