美国财长贝森特淡化了与欧盟迅速达成贸易协议的可能性，称欧盟存在"集体行动问题"，这 阻碍了谈判。贝森特对与亚洲贸易伙伴达成协议较为乐观，称美国已与日本进行了"非常富有 成效的讨论"，并称赞与印尼"非常积极"的沟通。 消 息 印度向世贸组织（WTO）发送通知文件表示，拟对美国征收报复性关税，以应对美国推出的钢铝 关税。这标志着印度首次回击特朗普的关税行动。另据知情人士透露，印度商务部长预计将于 本周访问美国讨论关税问题。 20250514申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 763.08 | 769.38 | 8192.00 | 8260.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 765.40 | 771.64 | 8219.00 | 8284.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The easing of tariffs in the short - term is positive news, causing gold and silver prices to decline. With the release of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement, the temporary tax relief and reduction exceeded market expectations, leading to a continued correction in gold and silver prices. Given that the market is in a stage of expecting a cooling of tariff conflicts and there is unlikely to be a rapid interest rate cut in the short - term, gold may enter a correction phase, and silver also lacks upward momentum. However, gold still has overall support due to the decline in confidence in US dollar assets and concerns about a US recession [5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512 are 770.30 and 776.24 respectively, with declines of - 16.02 and - 16.32, and drops of - 2.04% and - 2.06%. The current prices of Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 are 8232.00 and 8295.00 respectively, with increases of 64.00 and 63.00, and rises of 0.78% and 0.77%. The trading volumes are 169801 and 29027 for Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512, and 483540 and 24604 for Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 [2]. - **Positions**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512 are 87624 and 53842, and those of Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 are 209420 and 116409 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D were 785.3, 774.29, and 8150.00 respectively. The price changes were - 2.23, 4.33, and 50.00, and the percentage changes were - 0.28%, 0.56%, and 0.62% [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of the spreads between Shanghai Gold 2512 and 2506, and Shanghai Silver 2512 and 2506 are 5.94 and 63 respectively, and the previous values were 6.24 and 64 [2]. Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The current values of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver inventories are 17,238 kg and 934,459 kg, with increases of 1,590.00 kg and 2,477.00 kg compared to the previous values. The COMEX gold and silver inventories are 39,154,147 and 503,581,350, with increases of 22,864.13 and 781250 [2]. Related Market - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 100.4218, 5659.91, 4.37, 63.88, and 7.2402 respectively, with changes of - 0.21%, - 0.07%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and - 0.05% [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net positions in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895, with changes of 481 and - 1451 [2]. Macro News - **Trade Policies**: The US and China agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US maintains a 10% uniform tariff on UK imports [3][5]. - **US Pharmaceutical Policy**: US President Trump signed an executive order requiring pharmaceutical manufacturers to lower drug prices, aiming for a price reduction of 59% - 90%, but analysts and legal experts believe it is difficult to implement [3]. - **Central Bank Statements**: A Fed governor said that Trump's tariff policy may push up inflation and drag down economic growth. European Central Bank officials said they need to be cautious about the next interest - rate move due to the high uncertainty of Trump's economic policies. Goldman Sachs adjusted the expected time of the Fed's next interest - rate cut to December, raised the forecast of the US economic growth rate in Q4 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and lowered the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35% [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold may continue to show a relatively strong consolidation performance. Despite the positive impact of the potential first trade agreement on risk sentiment, the market still worries about the escalation of tariff scale. Meanwhile, geopolitical conflicts and central bank gold - buying demand continue to provide support [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 784.54, 790.42, 8154.00, and 8221.00 respectively. They have decreased by - 10.26, - 9.96, - 81.00, and - 85.00 with corresponding percentage changes of - 1.29%, - 1.24%, - 0.98%, and - 1.02% compared to the previous closing prices [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 127407, 51018, 232016, and 108449 respectively, and the trading volumes are 197963, 17040, 274975, and 16641 respectively [2] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2506,沪金2512,沪银2506, and沪银2512 are 8.33, 2.45, 67.00, and 0.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold (in USD/ounce), and London Gold (in another form) are 792.87, 796.45, and 3431.105 respectively. They have increased by 13.37, 39.70, and 190.495 with corresponding percentage changes of 1.72%, 5.25%, and 5.88%. The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D is 8221.00, with an increase of 58.00 (0.71%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in USD/ounce) is 33.21, with an increase of 1.21 (3.78%) [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 5.88, 67, 96.44, 7.19, and 7.70 respectively, compared to the previous values of 5.58, 71, 95.49, 7.48, and 7.93 [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver are 15,648 kg, 959,785 kg, 40,607,507 (units), and 501,316,990 (units) respectively. The changes are unchanged, an increase of 96.00 kg, a decrease of - 281,064.04 (units), and an increase of 673016 (units) compared to the previous values [2] Related Data - **Market Indexes and Ratios**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 99.2654, 5606.91, 4.3, 62.04, and 7.2080 respectively, with changes of - 0.53%, - 0.77%, - 1.38%, 0.01%, and 0.10% compared to the previous values [2] - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF, SLV Silver ETF, CFTC speculators' net position in silver, and CFTC speculators' net position in gold are 44315 tons, 44315 tons, 33486, and 32895 respectively, with changes of 1.00 ton, 1.00 ton, an increase of 481, and a decrease of - 1451 compared to the previous values [2] Market News - **Trade Negotiations**: The US and the UK have reached an agreement on tariff trade terms. The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, and the US will maintain a unified 10% tariff on UK - imported goods. The UK will further relax market access for US goods. The EU has announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods and may restrict imports of US wine, beer, and spirits. The US is about to start the legislative work of a large - scale tax - cut plan [3][4] - **Employment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 228,000, and the number of continued jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than market expectations [4] - **Fed Policy**: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the May meeting. Powell mentioned the rising risks of unemployment and inflation in the future, showing a wait - and - see attitude. In the short term, the Fed is unlikely to make a clear statement [4]

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a decline followed by a rebound during the holiday period, influenced by unexpected U.S. non-farm employment data that alleviated economic concerns and lowered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - Market sentiment shifted due to renewed tariff concerns after President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all foreign-made films, leading to a rebound in gold and silver prices [1][8] - The U.S. ISM services index unexpectedly rose to 51.6 in April, with the prices index reaching a two-year high, indicating improvements in employment and new orders [9] Group 2 - Long positions in precious metals are recommended to be held, with reference price ranges set for gold at 770-820 CNY per gram and silver at 8000-8400 CNY per kilogram [2] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, surpassing the expected 138,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [9] - Average hourly wages in the U.S. rose by 3.8% year-on-year in April, although this was below expectations [9]