美国财长贝森特淡化了与欧盟迅速达成贸易协议的可能性，称欧盟存在"集体行动问题"，这 阻碍了谈判。贝森特对与亚洲贸易伙伴达成协议较为乐观，称美国已与日本进行了"非常富有 成效的讨论"，并称赞与印尼"非常积极"的沟通。 消 息 印度向世贸组织（WTO）发送通知文件表示，拟对美国征收报复性关税，以应对美国推出的钢铝 关税。这标志着印度首次回击特朗普的关税行动。另据知情人士透露，印度商务部长预计将于 本周访问美国讨论关税问题。 20250514申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 763.08 | 769.38 | 8192.00 | 8260.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 765.40 | 771.64 | 8219.00 | 8284.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The easing of tariffs in the short - term is positive news, causing gold and silver prices to decline. With the release of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement, the temporary tax relief and reduction exceeded market expectations, leading to a continued correction in gold and silver prices. Given that the market is in a stage of expecting a cooling of tariff conflicts and there is unlikely to be a rapid interest rate cut in the short - term, gold may enter a correction phase, and silver also lacks upward momentum. However, gold still has overall support due to the decline in confidence in US dollar assets and concerns about a US recession [5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512 are 770.30 and 776.24 respectively, with declines of - 16.02 and - 16.32, and drops of - 2.04% and - 2.06%. The current prices of Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 are 8232.00 and 8295.00 respectively, with increases of 64.00 and 63.00, and rises of 0.78% and 0.77%. The trading volumes are 169801 and 29027 for Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512, and 483540 and 24604 for Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 [2]. - **Positions**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512 are 87624 and 53842, and those of Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 are 209420 and 116409 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D were 785.3, 774.29, and 8150.00 respectively. The price changes were - 2.23, 4.33, and 50.00, and the percentage changes were - 0.28%, 0.56%, and 0.62% [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of the spreads between Shanghai Gold 2512 and 2506, and Shanghai Silver 2512 and 2506 are 5.94 and 63 respectively, and the previous values were 6.24 and 64 [2]. Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The current values of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver inventories are 17,238 kg and 934,459 kg, with increases of 1,590.00 kg and 2,477.00 kg compared to the previous values. The COMEX gold and silver inventories are 39,154,147 and 503,581,350, with increases of 22,864.13 and 781250 [2]. Related Market - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 100.4218, 5659.91, 4.37, 63.88, and 7.2402 respectively, with changes of - 0.21%, - 0.07%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and - 0.05% [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net positions in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895, with changes of 481 and - 1451 [2]. Macro News - **Trade Policies**: The US and China agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US maintains a 10% uniform tariff on UK imports [3][5]. - **US Pharmaceutical Policy**: US President Trump signed an executive order requiring pharmaceutical manufacturers to lower drug prices, aiming for a price reduction of 59% - 90%, but analysts and legal experts believe it is difficult to implement [3]. - **Central Bank Statements**: A Fed governor said that Trump's tariff policy may push up inflation and drag down economic growth. European Central Bank officials said they need to be cautious about the next interest - rate move due to the high uncertainty of Trump's economic policies. Goldman Sachs adjusted the expected time of the Fed's next interest - rate cut to December, raised the forecast of the US economic growth rate in Q4 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and lowered the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35% [3][4].

20250509申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2506 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2506 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 784.54 | 790.42 | 8154.00 | 8221.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 794.80 | 800.38 | 8235.00 | 8306.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | -10.26 | -9.96 | -81.00 | -85.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -1.29% | -1.24% | -0.98% | -1.02% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 127407 | 51018 | 232016 | 108449 | | | | 成交量 | 197963 | 17040 | 274975 | 16641 | | | | 现货升贴水 | 8 ...

来源：中信建投期货 作者：中信建投期货 研报正文 观点与操作策略 相关消息 美国总统特朗普宣布，授权商务部和美国贸易代表立即启动程序，对所有在国外制作的进入美国的电影征收 100%的关税。他表示，正在就贸易协议与许多国家进行会晤，本周可能达成一些贸易协议。 假期期间，贵金属呈先抑后扬的状态，美国超预期的非农就业缓解市场对经济的担忧，美联储降息预期走低，使 得贵金属一度回落，但周一市场对关税担忧再度提升，因特朗普称将对所有在外国制作的电影征收关税，市场风 险偏好回落，金银均出现反弹。此外，美国 ISM 服务业表现超预期，美国经济数据继续表现为强现实与弱预期 的状态，市场等待关税影响进一步显现。总体来看，贸易战风险仍是市场主线，贵金属支撑仍存，长牛行情有望 持续。 操作上，长线多单继续持有。沪金 2506 参考区间 770-820 元/克，沪银 2506 参考区间 8000-8400 元/千克。 行情回顾 （转自：曲合期货） 美国 4 月 ISM 服务业指数意外不降反升至 51.6，价格指数创两年多新高，就业和新订单改善。 美国 4 月非农就业人口增长 17.7 万人，预期 13.8 万人，前两个月的增长数据被下 ...