Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With recent positive trade progress, gold and silver prices have continuously declined. Before the new tariff deadline, there was a peak in negotiations. After the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, multiple media reported that the US and the EU are expected to reach a preliminary agreement on imposing a 15% tariff, cooling the risk - aversion sentiment. US CPI has rebounded, further cooling the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts. Although the impact of the US tariff policy shown by economic data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. In addition, the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the price is high and the upward movement is hesitant. Silver is showing strength driven by industrial products. Gold and silver may continue to show a volatile and slightly upward trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts such as Shanghai Gold 2508, 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2508, 2512, there were small declines in prices with the largest decline being - 0.18% for Shanghai Silver 2512. In the spot market, London Gold and London Silver also decreased, with London Gold dropping by - 1.66% [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of different futures contracts vary. For example, the position of Shanghai Gold 2512 is 110,694 and the trading volume is 46,395 [2] - **Spread and Ratio**: The current values of spreads such as Shanghai Gold 2512 - Shanghai Gold 2506 and ratios like gold/silver have changed compared to previous values [2] Inventory - The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 501 kg, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 402,925 [2] Related Market Indicators - The US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate all have their current values and changes. For example, the US dollar index is currently 97.4884, up 0.29% [2] ETF and CFTC Positions - The positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF both increased by 1 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481, while that in gold decreased by 1,451 [2] Macro News - US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and pressured for interest rate cuts. An investment company sued Federal Reserve officials for closed - door policy meetings. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and listed "trade disputes" as a major source of policy uncertainty. The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [3] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary values of the service and composite PMIs reached new highs since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices have strengthened. Market risk aversion has increased before the new tariff deadline on August 1st, and the weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has provided upward momentum for gold. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled due to the rebound in US CPI. There is a need to be vigilant about the possibility of Trump's tariff threats being realized. Gold has long - term driving forces but is hesitant to rise at high prices, while silver is relatively strong due to the boost from industrial products. Gold and silver may continue their relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 779.32 and 783.66 respectively, with daily increases of 5.36 (0.69%) and 5.28 (0.68%). The current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9242.00 and 9290.00 respectively, with daily increases of 102.00 (1.12%) and 104.00 (1.13%) [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 53205 and 97403, and the trading volumes are 47780 and 43343 respectively. The positions of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 141275 and 210744, and the trading volumes are 102682 and 76697 respectively [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are - 8.40 and - 12.74, and those of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are - 119.00 and - 167.00 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 770.92 and 770.84 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.28 (- 0.17%) and - 1.24 (- 0.16%). The previous closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3338.85, with a change of - 7.135 (- 0.21%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 9123.00, with a change of 14.00 (0.15%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 38.14, with a change of 0.28 (0.75%) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506 and沪银2512 - 沪银2506 are 4.34 and 48 respectively. The current value of the gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 84.50, and the current values of the Shanghai - to - London gold and silver ratios are 7.18 and 7.44 respectively [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and COMEX gold are 28,872 kg and 37,143,884 respectively, with changes of 0 and an increase of 346,352.72 compared to the previous day. The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver and COMEX silver are 1,217,085 kg and 496,688,541 respectively, with changes of an increase of 4,296.00 kg and a decrease of 493426 compared to the previous day [2]. 3.4 Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 98.6419, 6297.36, 4.47, 69.65, and 7.1847 respectively, with daily increases of 0.36%, 0.54%, 0.22%, 0.01%, and 0.06% [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton compared to the previous day. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895, with changes of an increase of 481 and a decrease of 1451 [2]. 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Japan's Political Situation**: In Japan's 27th Senate election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lost its majority in the Senate. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to serve, while the leader of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party Noda Yoshihiko said he would consider a no - confidence motion against the cabinet if Ishiba remained in office [3]. - **US Fiscal and Monetary Policies**: The Trump administration's "Great and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next ten years. US Treasury Secretary Bessent criticized the Fed's "panic propaganda" on tariffs, and the Trump administration is trying to influence market expectations through new Fed chair candidates [3]. - **Trade Issues**: The EU may hold a meeting this week to prepare for the scenario of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool." Trump's tariff negotiation stance has hardened as the August 1st deadline approaches. Trump has postponed the new trade tariff deadline, but there is a risk of the tariff threat being realized [3]. - **EU's New Policy**: The EU Commission is formulating a new bill requiring large enterprises and car rental companies to switch to electric vehicle procurement by 2030, which may affect about 60% of new car sales in the EU, covering a market size of about 6.4 million vehicles per year [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver continue to fluctuate. The better - than - expected US economic data has cooled the expectation of the Fed's early interest rate cut, causing the US dollar to stabilize and putting pressure on gold and silver. The impact of the US tariff policy is currently smaller than feared, but the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The implementation of large - scale bills in the US further boosts the expectation of fiscal deficit. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is relatively strong due to the boost from industrial products. Gold and silver may continue to show a relatively strong performance, and the risk of Trump's threats being realized needs to be vigilant [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: For gold futures, the closing prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 774.36 and 778.76 respectively, with increases of 0.40 and 0.38, and the increase rates are both 0.05%. For silver futures, the closing prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9178.00 and 9224.00 respectively, with increases of 38.00, and the increase rates are 0.42% and 0.41% respectively. The trading volumes of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 47780 and 43343 respectively, and the trading volumes of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 102682 and 76697 respectively [2]. - **Spot Market and Related Ratios**: The price of London gold has decreased by 1.28, with a decrease rate of - 0.17%. The price of London silver has decreased by 1.24, with a decrease rate of - 0.16%. The ratio of gold to silver (spot) is 84.50, and the ratio of Shanghai silver to London silver is 7.18 [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remains unchanged at 28,872 kilograms. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver has increased by 4,296.00 kilograms to 1,217,085 kilograms. The inventory of COMEX gold has increased by 346,352.72 ounces to 37,143,884 ounces, and the inventory of COMEX silver has decreased by 493426 ounces to 496,688,541 ounces [2]. Macro News - **US Legislative Actions**: The US House of Representatives has passed the "Genius Act" to reform the regulation of cryptocurrencies, which will be submitted to President Trump for signature. It has also passed the "Clarity Act" to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, which will be submitted to the Senate for review [3]. - **Japan - US Trade**: In June, Japan's auto exports to the US decreased by 26.7% year - on - year, and its total exports to the US decreased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.71 trillion yen, with a widening decline [3]. - **US Employment and Retail Sales**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 7000 to 221,000, reaching the lowest level since mid - April. US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, higher than the expected 0.1%, mainly driven by auto sales [3][4]. Comment and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The US retail sales growth rate far exceeded expectations. The expectation of the Fed's early interest rate cut has cooled, and the US dollar has stabilized, putting pressure on gold and silver. The long - term drivers of gold still exist, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is relatively strong due to industrial support [5]. - **Risk Factors**: The risk of Trump's tariff threats being realized needs to be vigilant, and the subsequent impact of the US tariff policy may gradually increase [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of gold and silver rebounded but showed hesitation in further upward movement. As the deadline for the tariff suspension approaches in July, the market is uneasy about policy uncertainties. The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls data and the decline in the unemployment rate have cooled the expectation of an early interest rate cut by the Fed, putting pressure on gold and silver. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has raised expectations of fiscal deficits, leading to a weak dollar. Fed officials have indicated a wait - and - see stance, with conditions for rate cuts including lower inflation, weaker employment data, and clear trade policies. The impact of tariff policies shown in recent US data is smaller than feared, but it may increase as corporate inventories are depleted. The market may be paving the way for future easing, and if tariff policies become clear, the expectation of a rate cut will be further clarified, with a neutral expectation of a rate cut starting in September. Although the long - term drivers for gold still provide support, it is at a high price and shows hesitation in upward movement. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: For沪金2508, the current price is 774.72, down 0.16 (-0.02%) from the previous close, with a trading volume of 53073 and an open interest of 93922. For沪金2512, the current price is 778.98, up 0.18 (0.02%), with a trading volume of 24526 and an open interest of 85287. The spread between沪金2512 and previous values is 4.26 (previous was 3.92). [2] - **Silver Futures**: For沪银2508, the current price is 8931.00, up 12.00 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 385997 and an open interest of 250718. For沪银2512, the current price is 8976.00, up 12.00 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 49501 and an open interest of 185262. The spread between沪银2512 and previous values is 45 (unchanged). [2] Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: London gold's previous closing price was 771.57, down 4.24 (-0.55%); Shanghai Gold T + D's previous closing price was 3336.94, up 10.855 (0.33%). The ratio of Shanghai gold to London gold is 7.49 (previous was 7.54). [2] - **Silver Spot**: London silver's previous closing price was 768.73, up 1.82 (0.24%); Shanghai Silver T + D's previous closing price was 8885.00, down 44.00 (-0.49%). The ratio of Shanghai silver to London silver is 7.19 (previous was 7.25). The gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 86.84 (previous was 86.89). [2] Inventory - **Gold Inventory**: The上期所gold inventory is 21,456 kg (an increase of 3,000 kg from the previous value), and the COMEX gold inventory is 36,785,583 ounces (a decrease of 262,617.32 ounces from the previous value). [2] - **Silver Inventory**: The上期所silver inventory is 1,339,746 kg (a decrease of 1,046 kg from the previous value), and the COMEX silver inventory is 499,281,076 ounces (a decrease of 902370 ounces from the previous value). [2] Related Derivatives and Indexes - **ETF Holdings**: The spdr gold ETF holding is 44315 tons (an increase of 1 ton from the previous value), and the SLV silver ETF holding is 44315 tons (an increase of 1 ton from the previous value). [2] - **CFTC Speculators' Net Positions**: The CFTC speculators' net position in silver is 33486 (an increase of 481 from the previous value), and in gold is 32895 (a decrease of 1451 from the previous value). [2] - **Indexes**: The US dollar index is 96.9880 (up 0.22% from the previous value), the Standard & Poor's index is 6279.35 (up 0.83%), the US Treasury yield is 4.35 (up 1.16%), the Brent crude oil price is 68.51, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1701 (up 0.12%). [2] Macroeconomic Information - **US Trade Policy**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the final stage of trade negotiations is at a deadlock, and the next 72 hours will be very busy in trade negotiations. There may be several major announcements in the coming days. 100 smaller countries will get fixed tariff rates. The focus of trade negotiations is on 18 countries that account for 95% of the US trade deficit. The August 1 deadline has been stated in letters to countries, and if no agreement is reached by then, tariffs will return to April levels. [3] - **Russian Initiative**: Russian President Putin proposed at the 17th BRICS Leaders' Meeting to build an independent settlement and custody system on the BRICS platform and promote the expansion of local currency settlement. [3] - **US New Tariff**: US President Trump said on July 4 that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, which may range from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70%, and the new tariffs will "most likely" take effect on August 1. [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Gold and silver prices declined due to better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in June, which cooled the expectation of an early Fed rate cut. The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill is expected to increase the fiscal deficit, and the US dollar is weak. The Fed is maintaining a wait - and - see stance, with a neutral expectation of a rate cut starting in September. Gold has long - term support but is hesitant to rise at high prices. Caution is needed regarding the uncertainty of Trump's policies as the July tariff suspension deadline approaches [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts, the prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 decreased, with respective changes of - 5.92, - 5.80, - 28.00, - 27.00 and percentage changes of - 0.76%, - 0.74%, - 0.31%, - 0.30%. For example,沪金2508 is now at 773.00 compared to the previous close of 778.92 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of different contracts vary. For instance, the open interest of沪金2508 is 98320 and its trading volume is 53873 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, London Gold (in USD/oz), Shanghai Silver T + D, and London Silver (in USD/oz) have different changes. For example, the price of Shanghai Gold T + D increased by 5.48 with a change rate of 0.71%, while London Gold decreased by 6.09 with a change rate of - 0.79% [2]. Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. The上期所白银库存 increased by 2133.00 kg, while COMEX gold inventory decreased by 262,617.32 and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 902370 [2]. Related Derivatives - **ETF and Speculator Positions**: The positions of spdr gold ETF, SLV silver ETF, and CFTC speculators in gold and silver have changed. For example, the spdr gold ETF position increased by 1.00 ton, and the CFTC speculator net position in gold decreased by 1451 [2]. Macroeconomic Information - **Policy and Data**: The US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will increase the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. The US will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnam, not in addition to the existing 10%. US non - farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the initial jobless claims reached a six - week low. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September dropped to about 80%. The US May factory orders increased by 8.2% month - on - month [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of gold and silver rebounded. The unexpected decrease in the US ADP employment in June intensified the market's expectation of an early interest rate cut by the Fed this year. The approaching deadline for the suspension of reciprocal tariffs made the market uneasy, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill raised the expectation of fiscal deficit, leading to a weak US dollar. Although Fed officials continued to maintain a wait - and - see attitude and mentioned the possibility of a rate cut as early as July with pre - conditions, the progress of trade negotiations was limited. The market might be paving the way for future easing, and if tariff policies became clear, the expectation of rate cut would be further clarified. Gold faced hesitation in upward movement due to its high price, and investors should be vigilant about the uncertainty of Trump's policies and the hype of tariff escalation as the July tariff suspension deadline approached [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were 775.90, 780.04, 8830.00, and 8872.00 respectively, with daily increases of 2.16 (0.28%), 2.04 (0.26%), 83.00 (0.95%), and 87.00 (0.99%) [2]. - **Position and Volume**: The positions of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were 103401, 83453, 249023, and 174093 respectively, and the trading volumes were 73175, 21045, 323881, and 34757 respectively [2]. - **Spot Premium**: The spot premiums of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were - 5.57, - 9.71, - 93.00, and - 135.00 respectively [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and London Gold (in USD/oz) were 770.33, 773.00, and 3356.93 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.71 (- 0.22%), 4.21 (0.55%), and 19.6 (0.59%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 8737.00, with a daily change of - 68.00 (- 0.77%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in USD/oz) was 36.55, with a daily change of 0.53 (1.48%) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver were 4.14, 42, 88.17, 7.14, and 7.44 respectively, compared with previous values of 4.26, 38, 87.68, 7.20, and 7.60 [2]. Inventory - The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were 18,456 kg, 1,338,659 kg, 37,048,200 units, and 500,183,447 units respectively, with changes of 3.00 kg, - 185.00 kg, no change, and - 1026742 units compared to the previous values [2]. Related Markets - **Indices and Rates**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and USD/CNY were 96.7788, 6227.42, 4.3, 69.15, and 7.1617 respectively, with daily changes of 0.14%, 0.47%, 0.94%, 0.01%, and 0.00% [2]. - **Derivatives**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF, SLV Silver ETF, CFTC speculators' net position in silver, and CFTC speculators' net position in gold were 44315 tons, 44315 tons, 33486 units, and 32895 units respectively, with daily changes of 1.00 ton, 1.00 ton, 481 units, and - 1451 units [2]. Macro News - The US ADP employment in June unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, far below the expected increase of 98,000. Service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in the Fed's rate - cut expectation in September [3]. - EU Commission President von der Leyen met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Brussels. Wang Yi said that the upcoming China - EU leaders' meeting was an important one at a critical juncture. China hoped to summarize the past 50 - year experience of China - EU relations, plan the future 50 - year cooperation, and send positive signals. China was willing to deepen economic and trade cooperation with the EU [3]. - The US Department of Defense said that the Iranian nuclear facilities were estimated to have been destroyed, and the Iranian nuclear program was postponed by about 1 - 2 years [3]. - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam's exports to the US would be subject to a 20% tariff, and trans - shipped goods would be subject to a 40% tariff. Vietnam agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of gold and silver rebounded. The approaching tariff suspension deadline and the progress of the "Big and Beautiful" bill have made the market uneasy, leading to a weakening of the US dollar. Recent statements from Fed officials suggest a continued wait - and - see stance, with some indicating a possible rate cut as early as July under conditions such as lower inflation and clearer trade policies. The "Big and Beautiful" bill raises expectations of fiscal deficits. US data shows that the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, but trade negotiations have limited progress. As the policy framework is modified, the market may pave the way for future easing. Once the tariff policy becomes clear, the expectation of rate cuts will be further clarified. Gold has long - term drivers but shows hesitation in rising due to high prices. With the approaching July tariff suspension deadline, be vigilant about the uncertainty of Trump's policies and potential hype about tariff resurgence [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 774.50 and 779.08 respectively, with increases of 0.60 (0.08%) and 1.18 (0.15%). The current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 8763.00 and 8805.00 respectively, with decreases of 47.00 ( - 0.53%) and 45.00 ( - 0.51%) [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of沪金2508 and沪金2512 is 110096 and 81240 respectively, and the trading volume is 83291 and 18408 respectively. The open interest of沪银2508 and沪银2512 is 264724 and 174356 respectively, and the trading volume is 342536 and 40561 respectively [2] - **Spot Premium/Discount**: The spot premium/discount of沪金2508 and沪金2512 is - 2.46 and - 7.04 respectively, and that of沪银2508 and沪银2512 is 42.00 and 0.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 772.04 and 768.79 respectively, with increases of 7.89 (1.03%) and 8.25 (1.08%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 8805.00, with an increase of 77.00 (0.88%), and the price of London Silver was 36.01, with a decrease of 0.08 ( - 0.21%) [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 4.58, 42, 87.68, 7.20, and 7.60 respectively [2] Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The current values of上期所黄金库存,上期所白银库存, COMEX黄金库存, and COMEX白银库存 are 18,453 kg, 1,338,844 kg, 37,048,200 ounces, and 501,210,189 ounces respectively. Compared with the previous values,上期所黄金库存 increased by 216.00 kg,上期所白银库存 increased by 39,088.00 kg, and COMEX白银库存 increased by 1,515,437 ounces [2] Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, Standard & Poor's index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate are 96.6451, 6198.01, 4.26%, 67.28, and 7.1614 respectively. Compared with the previous values, the US dollar index decreased by 0.13%, the Standard & Poor's index decreased by 0.11%, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.47%, the Brent crude oil price increased by 0.01%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased by 0.05% [2] Derivatives - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF are 44315 tons, both increasing by 1.00 ton compared with the previous values. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with an increase of 481 in silver and a decrease of 1451 in gold compared with the previous values [2] News and Events - **US Politics and Policies**: The US Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will be sent to the House of Representatives. Trump is confident that the tax bill will pass in the House. Trump said he will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline, may not reach an agreement with Japan by then, and Japan may face 30% or 35% tariffs. There are two or three candidates for the Fed chair [3] - **Central Bank Statements**: Fed Chair Powell said that without Trump's tariff policies, the Fed would adopt looser monetary policies. He did not rule out a rate cut in July, which depends on data, and most Fed members expect a rate cut later this year. ECB President Lagarde said the eurozone's June inflation reached the 2% target, the rate - cut cycle is approaching the end, and future policies will depend on data [3] - **Trade Negotiations**: The EU and the US are in the final stage of trade agreement negotiations. The EU has agreed in principle to a 10% general tariff proposed by the US but requires the US to make equivalent concessions in four key areas. The White House economic advisor is optimistic about reaching an agreement with the EU [3] - **US Economic Data**: The US June ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49, higher than the expected 48.8 but still in the contraction range for four consecutive months. New orders decreased for five consecutive months, and the price - paid index was close to the highest level since June 2022, indicating a slight acceleration of inflation. US job openings in May increased from 7.4 million in April to 7.769 million, far exceeding the expected 7.3 million, and the number of layoffs decreased [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices have declined. The Middle - East situation has cooled down with Israel and Iran agreeing to a full - scale cease - fire. Fed Chairman Powell stated that the Fed is in a favorable position and can wait patiently. The June Fed rate meeting kept rates unchanged, and the Fed remains on the sidelines. The "big and beautiful" bill raises deficit concerns, and the impact of US tariff policies shown by recent data is smaller than expected. The market is at a stage of expecting a cooling of tariff conflicts, and although gold has long - term drivers, its upward movement is hesitant at high prices. With the approaching July tariff suspension deadline, be vigilant about hype related to a resurgence of tariffs [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Futures Market - The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2508 and 2512 are 763.58 and 767.78 respectively, with price drops of - 2.82 and - 2.64, and declines of - 0.37% and - 0.34%. The current prices of Shanghai Silver 2508 and 2512 are 8718.00 and 8757.00 respectively, with price drops of - 74.00 and - 75.00, and declines of - 0.84% and - 0.85% [2]. - The trading volumes of Shanghai Gold 2508 and 2512 are 169217 and 25321 respectively, and the trading volumes of Shanghai Silver 2508 and 2512 are 469549 and 42675 respectively [2]. Spot Market - The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D are 763.08, 754.99, and 8748.00 respectively. The price drops are - 10.18, - 11.80, and - 25.00 respectively, and the declines are - 1.32%, - 1.54%, and - 0.28% respectively [2]. - The current values of the spread between Shanghai Gold 2512 and Shanghai Gold 2506, and Shanghai Silver 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2506 are 4.20 and 39 respectively [2]. Inventory - The current values of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver inventories are 18,237 kg and 1,295,663 kg respectively. The current values of COMEX gold and silver inventories are 37,048,335 and 499,090,358 respectively. The increase in the Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory is 24,833.00 kg, and the decrease in COMEX silver inventory is 930224 [2]. Related Derivatives and Other Data - The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 97.2612, 6173.07, 4.29, 66.34, and 7.1729 respectively [2]. - The current positions of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons each. The net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively [2]. Macroeconomic News - Trump believes he doesn't need to extend the July 9 deadline for countries to reach agreements to avoid higher tariffs. He also criticizes Fed Chairman Powell for keeping interest rates high [3]. - The US Senate passed a procedural motion to advance the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, increasing the likelihood of its passage in the next few days [3]. - Musk criticizes the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, saying it will destroy millions of US jobs and cause great strategic harm [3]. - The G7 agreed to support a proposal to exempt US companies from some provisions of the 2021 "global minimum tax system" [3].

Report Overview - Report Date: June 4, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Wang Rong, Liu Yuxuan [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - During the holiday, the Russia-Ukraine conflict flared up again, leading to a rebound in gold prices, and silver followed suit [1] - The trend strength for both gold and silver is 2, indicating a bullish outlook [5] Summary by Section 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices and Changes**: - Gold:沪金2508昨日收盘价783.10，日涨幅1.46%，夜盘收盘价782.08，夜盘跌幅0.46%；Comex黄金2508昨日收盘价3313.10，跌幅0.88%等 [2] - Silver:沪银2508昨日收盘价8456，日涨幅2.89%，夜盘收盘价8476.00，夜盘涨幅0.20%；Comex白银2508昨日收盘价33.075，跌幅1.09%等 [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: - Gold:沪金2508合约对2512合约价差昨日成交131,022，较前日减少104,991；Comex黄金2508昨日成交182,769，较前日减少42,281等 [2] - Silver:沪银2508昨日成交547,586，较前日减少110,657；Comex白银2508昨日成交40,787，较前日减少8,748等 [2] - **ETF and Inventory Changes**: - Gold: SPDR黄金ETF持仓昨日为933.07，较前日增加3；Comex黄金（金衡盎司）（前日）库存为38,349,605，较前日减少439,589 [2] - Silver: SLV白银ETF持仓（前天）为14,351.82，较前日增加48；Comex白银（金衡盎司）（前日）库存为495,395,012，较前日减少612,969 [2] - **Price Spreads**: - Gold:黄金T+D对AU2506价差昨日为 -4.98，较前日无变动；沪金2506合约对2512合约价差昨日为5.22，较前日减少0.36等 [2] - Silver:白银T+D对AG2506价差昨日为26，较前日增加4；沪银2502合约对2504合约价差昨日为49，较前日减少10等 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - 欧元兑美元昨日为1.14，较前日增加0.01；美元兑日元昨日为142.78，较前日增加0.05等 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Trade winds affected the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index having a V-shaped reversal. The US dollar fell to a nearly three-year low, gold rose nearly 3% in the futures market, and US crude oil rose over 5% [4] - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks, and China's Ministry of Commerce firmly rejected the unreasonable accusation [6] - The EU warned the US before the negotiation that if the negotiation fails, countermeasures will take effect by July 14 at the latest [6] - The Trump administration asked the appellate court for help due to the受阻推进 of tariff policies. The US Commerce Secretary said the president has the right to take other actions even if the tariff policy is cancelled [6] - The US May ISM manufacturing index contracted for three consecutive months, and the import index hit a 16-year low [6] - Fed governor Waller said there is no evidence of long-term inflation rising and still expects a rate cut later this year [6] - Trump said the US does not allow Iran to conduct any uranium enrichment activities [6]