Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve is likely to restart the interest rate cut channel in September due to signs of economic recession and a weakening job market, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, the highest since October 2011[1] - The August CPI increased by only 0.2 percentage points to 2.9%, indicating inflation remains within controllable limits, supporting the case for a rate cut[1] - The Fed's prolonged high interest rates have created a squeeze effect on corporate operations and consumer spending, necessitating a policy adjustment[1] Group 2: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump has consistently pressured the Fed to lower interest rates significantly, aiming for a 50 basis point cut instead of the anticipated 25 basis points[2] - The U.S. government debt is projected to reach $37.5 trillion by 2025, approximately 125% of GDP, creating historical debt servicing pressures[3] - Interest payments on government debt are expected to exceed $1 trillion in 2024, constituting 3.7% of GDP, with projections of surpassing 4.0% by 2025 if high rates persist[3] Group 3: Rising Long-term Bond Yields - As of early September 2025, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5%, while Germany, the UK, and France saw their long-term bond yields rise to 3.4%, 5.6%, and 4.498% respectively, marking new highs since the Eurozone crisis[4] - The increase in long-term bond yields is driven by concerns over debt sustainability, political instability, inflation expectations, and technical adjustments in bond supply and demand[4][5] Group 4: Debt Sustainability Concerns - The rise in long-term bond yields reflects deep-seated worries about the sustainability of government debt in the U.S. and Europe, exacerbated by recent global economic uncertainties[7] - Fiscal expansion policies are crucial for economic growth, but persistent high deficits and rising debt pressures challenge the sustainability of government finances[7] - The market is demanding higher risk premiums for long-term government bonds, indicating a shift from "central bank beta" to "fiscal beta" in asset pricing[7]

美国通货膨胀数据与预期大致吻合，与之前就业数据的意外形成对照，市场聚焦在美联储9月降息力度 上，不过对大码降息预期有所收敛，两年期国债收益率回升。上周股市在流动性推动下继续向好，港 股、日股和韩股表现突出。美元指数小幅浮动，金价一度突破每盎司3700美元，创历史新高，能源和大 宗商品也表现良好。 市场已经定价了100%的概率，美联储将在本周会议上作出降息一码的决定，争论在于会不会有大码 （甚至超大码）降息。从目前联邦基金利率4.25%~4.5%水平下调并非政策宽松，而是从偏紧走向中 性。过去由于通货膨胀，政策利率被加到偏收缩水平，如今由于就业市场出现问题，利率回归中性区间 合情合理，关键是时机和力度。 本周的焦点在美联储议息，预计降息一码但不完全排除大码降息的可能。 笔者认为美国劳工市场的确在明显下滑，但是失业情况的扩散不严重，公司大多秉持"少雇少炒"的原 则，工资仍在上涨，消费情绪也不算太差。同时，关税政策和移民政策带来的最终冲击尚未显现，货币 政策的调整也只能边走边看。米兰空降美联储（如果参议院完成听证）可以令鸽派声音强一点，但改不 了本届按数据决策的基调。 笔者预期今年最后三次议息会议，每次降息一码，明 ...

Core Points - The appointment of former Defense Minister Le Cornu as the new Prime Minister of France marks the fifth change in this position within two years, highlighting the instability in French politics [1] - The new Prime Minister faces significant challenges, including high national debt, fiscal imbalance, and declining economic competitiveness, which are critical for the sustainability of his tenure [1][5] - The French government has been struggling with a rising debt-to-GDP ratio, which has exceeded the 60% international warning line, and a deficit rate that remains above the 3% threshold set by the Maastricht Treaty [3][4] Fiscal Challenges - The French government is grappling with a soaring deficit and debt rate, necessitating both spending cuts and increased tax revenues, which have sparked public discontent [2] - The recent history of frequent Prime Minister changes is linked to the government's inability to effectively manage fiscal policies amid a fragmented political landscape [2][5] - The debt crisis in France can be traced back over the past fifty years, with significant spikes during the 2009 Eurozone crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a current debt rate of approximately 113% [3][4] Economic Performance - France's economic growth has stagnated at around 1% annually since 2012, contributing to the challenges faced by successive Prime Ministers [5] - The new Prime Minister is expected to align with President Macron's focus on addressing the economic impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict while tackling long-standing fiscal issues [5]