特殊合金材料

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固定收益:投资策略:转债市场研判及“十强转债”组合
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-01 08:57
Market Overview - In June 2025, the stock market experienced an overall rise due to the easing of Middle Eastern tensions and multiple thematic catalysts, while bond market interest rates declined [4][7] - The average parity of convertible bonds reached a near-high level, with significant valuation increases for bond-like convertible bonds [5][7] - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index closed at 442.1 points on June 27, marking a 2.68% increase for the month [7] Convertible Bond Market Analysis - As of June 27, the arithmetic average parity of convertible bonds was 103.14 yuan, up 3.77% from the previous month, placing it in the 98th percentile since 2023 [7][23] - The average conversion premium rate for bonds in the price range of 90 to 125 yuan was 21.13%, also in the 48th percentile for 2023 [7][23] - The average yield to maturity (YTM) for bond-like convertible bonds fell below zero, indicating a shift in market sentiment [7][29] Recommended Convertible Bonds - The "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" for July 2025 include: - **Shenzhen Gas Convertible Bond (113067.SH)**: High balance and stable profitability, rated AAA [31][32] - **Hongcheng Convertible Bond (110077.SH)**: Stable operations and high dividend payout, rated AA+ [31][43] - **Weir Convertible Bond (113616.SH)**: Strong growth in consumer electronics and automotive sectors, rated AA+ [31][55] - **Jingce Convertible Bond (123176.SZ)**: Urgent need for domestic semiconductor testing equipment, rated AA- [31][66] - **Haoyuan Convertible Bond (118051.SH)**: Recovery trend in innovative drug development, rated AA- [31][79] - **Huakang Convertible Bond (111018.SH)**: Leading position in functional sugar alcohols, rated AA- [31][90] - **Bohai Convertible Bond (113069.SH)**: Steady growth in special alloy materials, rated AA [31][101] - **Dongcai Convertible Bond (113064.SH)**: Increased demand for high-frequency resin materials driven by AI server construction, rated AA [31][113] Industry Insights - The gas industry, represented by Shenzhen Gas, is experiencing steady growth in natural gas sales, with a 5.06% year-on-year increase in supply volume [36] - The environmental governance sector, led by Hongcheng Environment, shows stable revenue growth from water supply and treatment services, with a focus on expanding its business footprint [46] - The semiconductor industry, highlighted by Weir Group, is benefiting from increased demand in automotive electronics and consumer electronics, with significant revenue growth projected [58] - The healthcare sector, represented by Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, is positioned to capitalize on the recovery of innovative drug research and development [82]
永兴材料(002756):低成本云母提锂龙头,锂电和特钢双轮驱动
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-04-27 09:38
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a low-cost leader in mica lithium extraction, driven by dual engines of lithium battery and special steel businesses. The successful expansion of mining rights and anticipated growth in lithium salt production capacity are expected to enhance profitability as lithium prices stabilize and recover [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2000, has evolved from a stainless steel manufacturer to a leader in the lithium battery materials sector, maintaining a top-three market share in stainless steel long products. A strategic shift began in 2017 towards lithium battery materials, leading to significant growth in both stainless steel and lithium salt revenues [7][14]. 2. Lithium Sector - The company has secured two major mica lithium mines, achieving complete self-sufficiency in lithium resources. The mining rights for the Huashan mica mine have been expanded, increasing the production capacity from 3 million tons/year to 9 million tons/year, enhancing resource security [7][47][51]. - The current lithium carbonate production capacity stands at 30,000 tons, with plans for expansion as mining and processing projects are completed. The production cost of lithium carbonate is projected to be significantly lower than industry averages, with a forecasted cost of 47,000 RMB/ton in 2024 [7][52][53]. - The lithium market is expected to experience a bottoming phase in 2025, with a potential recovery in 2026 as supply-demand dynamics shift. The average selling prices for lithium products are projected to be 66,000 RMB/ton in 2025, increasing to 71,000 RMB/ton in 2026 [7][58]. 3. Special Steel Sector - The company is a leading player in the stainless steel long products market, with stable production and sales volumes around 300,000 tons annually. The gross profit per ton of stainless steel has increased from 1,961 RMB/ton in 2021 to 2,809 RMB/ton in 2023, reflecting improved product mix and market positioning [7][35][39]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 890 million RMB, 1.23 billion RMB, and 1.64 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -14.3%, +37.1%, and +34.0%. The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 18, 13, and 10 for the same years [6][8].