Summary of Automotive Industry and Company Insights Industry Overview - The automotive industry investment strategy for the second half of 2025 will focus on both dividend styles and future industry trends, particularly automation and robotics, with a primary emphasis on automation [1][2] - The overall sales volume of the Chinese automotive market is expected to maintain a 4% growth target for the year, driven by the continued promotion of vehicle replacement policies [1][12] Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies for dividend style include Yutong (客车), Zhongqi (重卡), and Chunfeng (两轮车), while Horizon Robotics and Top Group are highlighted for their potential in automation [1][4] - In the vehicle sector, preferred brands include XPeng, Li Auto, and Huawei's affiliated brands, with Horizon and Top Group recommended for components [1][4] Performance Insights - In the first half of 2025, the gold stock portfolio included XPeng, Horizon, Top Group, and Boteli, which performed better than expected, while SAIC, Desay, and Yutong underperformed [1][5] - The passenger car sector index performed well until March, benefiting from AI diffusion and increased confidence in smart technology, but faced a short-term pullback due to price wars and autonomous driving incidents [1][6] Market Dynamics - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) was adjusted to 60% in the second quarter, with an export growth rate maintained at around 11% [1][12][13] - The domestic demand for passenger cars met expectations, despite signs of weakness in April and May, with inventory levels increasing significantly [1][7] Future Trends and Adjustments - The investment strategy for the second half of 2025 will involve a 30% adjustment in the gold stock portfolio, adding strategic and certain varieties such as Li Auto, Xingyu, and Chunfeng, while removing Desay, Putai, and Xinquan [1][5] - The human-shaped robot market saw a surge in interest, significantly boosting the valuations of related companies like Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control [1][22] Sector-Specific Insights - The two-wheeler motorcycle industry maintained high growth, with domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles increasing by 32% year-on-year, and exports showing a growth of 73% from January to May 2025 [1][48][50] - The heavy-duty truck sector showed steady domestic sales growth, with expectations for improved performance in the second half of 2025 due to favorable policies [1][44][47] Conclusion - The automotive industry is poised for a transformative period with a focus on automation and smart technologies, while companies that adapt to these trends and maintain strong fundamentals are likely to outperform in the evolving market landscape [1][2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a new product cycle for pure electric vehicles in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the launch of advanced intelligent driving features [3] - The first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, is set to be released in July, followed by another new model, the i6, in September [3] - The company has established 2,355 supercharging stations as of May 29, with plans to exceed 2,500 by the i8 launch and reach over 4,000 by the end of 2025 [3] - The L series of vehicles will feature significant upgrades, including the new 2025 models equipped with advanced AI and hardware for intelligent driving [3] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 143.64 billion, 223.30 billion, and 236.15 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.6%, +55.5%, and +5.8% respectively [4] - The net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 8.16 billion, 13.66 billion, and 15.41 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.6%, +67.4%, and +12.8% respectively [4] - Corresponding EPS for 2025 to 2027 is projected at 3.81, 6.38, and 7.20 RMB, with P/E ratios of 27, 16, and 14 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a pure electric product cycle in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the launch of high-level intelligent driving features. The first pure electric SUV, the Li Auto i8, will be launched in July, followed by a new model, the i6, in September. As of May 29, 2025, the company has built 2,355 supercharging stations, with plans to exceed 2,500 by the i8 launch and reach over 4,000 by the end of 2025. The L series of vehicles will feature upgraded configurations and advanced driving capabilities, with the AD Max system utilizing the NVIDIA Thor-U chip and new laser radar technology [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 143.64 billion, 223.30 billion, and 236.15 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -0.6%, +55.5%, and +5.8%. The net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 8.16 billion, 13.66 billion, and 15.41 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of +1.6%, +67.4%, and +12.8%. The corresponding EPS for 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 3.81, 6.38, and 7.20 RMB, with P/E ratios of 27, 16, and 14 times [4][12]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 25.93 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 41.4%. The gross margin for Q1 was 20.5%, slightly better than expected, with vehicle sales gross margin at 19.8%. The company reported a net profit of 650 million RMB for the same quarter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.7% but a significant quarter-on-quarter decrease of 81.5% [11].

证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 12 日 吉利计划全资控股极氪，体系整合应对市场淘汰期 ——汽车行业周报 《问界 M8 上市 4 天大定 5 万台，关注 鸿蒙智行新车周期—汽车行业周报》 2025.04.21 《零跑 B10 上市，关注智驾硬件普及— 汽车行业周报》2025.04.14 《新势力 3 月销量同比+82.9%，看好后 续新品市场表现—新势力车企销量点评 月报》2025.04.03 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 5 . 本周观点：吉利计划全资控股极氪，体系整合应对市场淘汰期。 吉利汽车或计划对极氪进行私有化，有望实现内部资源整合，减 少关联交易，在当前乘用车市场淘汰期聚焦资源利用率的最大化。 私有化后，极氪及领克品牌自由度相对增强，吉利有望整合产业 链零部件公司，精简冗员的同时协同采购，释放规模效应；营销 体系和售后网络运营等由集团公司统一规划也有望提升当前极氪 独立运营下的效率。展望 2025 年，极氪&领克发力高端市场，吉 利银河新车储备丰富且均价较星愿等此前主销车型提升明显，新 车&私有化效率提升双重推动下公司单车盈利有望持续提升。 行业动态：行业要闻，一是阶段性将汽 ...

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 | | 目录 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 生产厂商 | 子车型 | 上市时间 | 细分市场及车身结构 | 工程更改规模 | | 1 | 上汽大众 | 途观L PRO | 2025 / 05 / 07 | B SUV | MCE1 | | 2 | 一汽轿车 | 红旗 Ho | 2025 / 05 / 07 | C NB | MCE1 | | 3 | 云度汽车 | 吉祥AIR | 2025 / 05 / 07 | A NB | NP | | 4 | 阿维塔科技 | 阿维塔 12 | 2025 / 05 / 08 | C NB | MCE1 | | 5 | 比亚迪汽车 | 海狮 07 DM-i | 2025 / 05 / 08 | C SUV | NP | | 6 | 理想汽车 | LS | 2025 / 05 / 08 | C SUV | MCE1 | | 7 | 理想汽车 | L7 | 2025 / 05 / 08 | C SUV | MCE1 | | 8 | 理想汽车 | 18 | 2025 / ...