国金证券近日发布基础化工行业研究：2025年10月9日，国家发改委、市场监管总局发 布《关于治理价格无序竞争维护良好市场价格秩序的公告》，对价格无序竞争问题突出的重 点行业，行业协会等有关机构在国家发展改革委、市场监管总局和行业主管部门指导下，可 以调研评估行业平均成本，为经营者合理定价提供参考。 风险提示 延续"反内卷"要求，持续关注无序低价竞争，提供持续的政策环境。继今年6-7月，国家 重点开启反内卷要求，陆续出台政策指引典型行业开启供给侧管控，7月份包括水泥、钢 铁、煤炭、养殖等行业纷纷开始进行合理的产能控制，防止无序扩张和竞争，其后，国家持 续针对反内卷的关键要求不断落实政策要求，比如"统一大市场"，细分行业的供给管控，到 这一次的"治理价格无序竞争"，这一次的公告延续了此前的6月出台的《中华人民共和国反 不正当竞争法（修订草案）》和7月中央财经委员会第六次会议"依法依规治理企业低价无序 竞争"的要求，是前轮政策的延续深化。从大方向看，针对反内卷的核心要求，国家持续出 台政策、公告、文件等不断强化，在宏观上提供了供给侧管控的延续环境，有利于强化市场 信心，便于后续细分行业的政策加速出台和落地。 供给端 ...

证券日报网讯金禾实业（002597）9月26日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司是全球主要的甜味 剂供应商之一，产品作为原料广泛应用于无糖饮料、食品、保健品等多个领域。公司的客户群体覆盖了 众多国内外知名的食品饮料企业，并与下游各品牌客户建立了稳定、良好的合作关系。公司始终以客户 需求为导向，致力于为下游客户提供安全、优质、稳定的产品和服务。有关公司的客户合作情况及业务 进展，请以公司官方发布的定期报告和公告为准。 ...

Group 1 - A recent study from Monash University in Australia indicates that consuming one cup of sugar-free drinks daily increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes by 38%, compared to a 23% increase from sugary drinks [1] - The study's findings have sparked discussions on social media regarding the safety of sugar-free beverages [1] - Experts, including Zhong Kai from the China Center for Food and Health Information, criticize the study for relying on self-reported data, which may be inaccurate, and for not establishing a direct causal relationship between artificial sweeteners and diabetes [1] Group 2 - Zhong Kai emphasizes that diabetes is a metabolic disease not directly linked to sugar intake or sweeteners, and that moderate consumption of sweeteners does not significantly affect blood sugar levels [1] - The guidelines from the "Chinese Type 2 Diabetes Prevention and Treatment" and "Dietary Guidance for Adult Diabetes Patients" indicate that it is safe for diabetes patients to consume foods and beverages containing non-nutritive sweeteners [1] - Chen Junshi, a senior consultant at the National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, asserts that the safety of sweeteners has been validated by over 100 countries and international food safety organizations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy direction emphasizes the construction of a unified national market, which is crucial for enhancing China's response to risks and challenges, especially in the context of being the world's second-largest consumer market [1]. Group 1: Policy Direction and Industry Focus - The policy aims to address the issue of overcapacity in various domestic industries, with a specific focus on the chemical sector, which has seen significant fixed asset investment and capacity pressure over the past four years [2]. - The article reiterates the importance of "five unifications and one openness," highlighting the need to rectify issues such as low-price disorderly competition and the orderly exit of backward production capacity [3]. Group 2: Industry Collaboration and Profitability - Certain industries have begun to initiate "industry collaboration," which may improve profitability before stringent supply-side constraints are implemented, with initial attempts at controlling production and pricing already underway [4]. - The focus on specific segments such as glyphosate, organosilicon, sweeteners, polyester filament bottle chips, and metallic silicon is recommended due to their relatively better market concentration and demand sustainability [4]. Group 3: Long-term Monitoring and Supply-side Policies - Continuous tracking of supply-side policy changes and their implementation is essential to assess long-term price trends and profit realization, particularly regarding orderly supply and reasonable competition [5]. - Key areas for monitoring include the impact of new capacity, traditional supply-side clearance policies, and the external environment affecting exports [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent discussion on the increased risk of diabetes associated with daily consumption of sugar-free beverages has sparked significant public interest, with experts clarifying that the relationship between sugar intake and diabetes is not direct, and that sweeteners can be safely consumed by diabetic patients [1][2]. Group 1: Expert Opinions - The director of the Center for Food and Health Information, Zhong Kai, stated that diabetes is a metabolic disease and does not have a direct correlation with sugar intake or sweeteners. Research indicates that moderate consumption of sweeteners does not significantly affect blood sugar levels [1]. - Zhong Kai emphasized that sweeteners can serve as a sugar substitute for those managing their sugar intake, but they do not directly aid in weight loss. The key to weight loss lies in burning more calories than consumed [1]. - Chen Junshi, chief advisor of the National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, highlighted that China has strict approval and regulatory systems for food additives, ensuring their safe use [1]. Group 2: Safety and Recommendations - Chen Junshi pointed out that the safety of sweeteners has been confirmed by over 100 countries and numerous international food safety organizations over the past century. All sweeteners approved for use in China have undergone rigorous evaluation and testing [2]. - The "Healthy China Action (2019-2030)" recommends that individuals with high sugar intake can opt for beverages and foods containing natural sweeteners or sweeteners to reduce their sugar consumption [2].

Group 1 - The company, Jinhe Industrial, focuses on producing bulk chemicals that serve as raw materials for sweeteners and industrial products [1] - The company aims to build a circular economy and integrate its value chain to ensure stable supply of raw materials, reduce costs, and promote energy reuse [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Jinhe Industrial (002597) is a leading player in the food additive market, particularly in sweeteners and flavoring products [1] - The company produces high-generation sweeteners such as Acesulfame and Sucralose, which are characterized by high sweetness, pure taste, and high safety [1] - Sweeteners are primarily used in beverages, snacks, canned foods, pickled foods, candied fruits, and fruit cakes [1] Group 2 - The flavoring products include Ethyl Maltol, Methylcyclopentanolone (MCP), and Musk Solution, which are safe, non-toxic, and widely used in food and daily chemical additives [1] - Ethyl Maltol and MCP are effective additives that find applications in processed food and beverages, as well as in cooking [1] - The production capacity and market share of the company's food additives, including Acesulfame, Sucralose, and Maltol, are leading globally [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry is characterized by its cyclical nature, heavily influenced by national economic conditions and capacity investments, with high information asymmetry due to the involvement of numerous sub-industries and chemical products [1][2] - The A-share market has over 500 listed companies in this sector, with a significant number having a market capitalization below 10 billion [2] Core Insights and Arguments - Fluctuations in crude oil prices have a complex impact on the basic chemical industry, with rapid price changes being detrimental to midstream manufacturing pricing and procurement strategies [1][4] - A stable cost environment is most beneficial for the industry, as a moderate decline in raw material prices and stable supply-demand conditions can enhance profitability [1][4] - The success of cost-push pricing strategies depends on the supply-demand landscape; favorable conditions allow companies to pass costs onto consumers, while adverse conditions may force them to absorb costs [1][6] - The integration level in the industry has increased, with leading companies extending their supply chains and diversifying to mitigate raw material risks, creating cost advantages [1][7] - Recent policies such as supply-side reforms and carbon neutrality initiatives have constrained supply, while new technologies can significantly lower costs, presenting arbitrage opportunities [1][9] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The current phase (2025) is at the bottom of the cycle, with fixed asset construction showing negative growth year-on-year, indicating a search for a turning point [2][17] - The demand side has seen significant changes, with new application areas emerging from policies like the 2016 housing reform and the rapid development of the new energy sector [18] - The agricultural sector's stability makes the fertilizer industry a weak cyclical sector, although recent price volatility has been influenced by resource and process disruptions [13] Investment Opportunities - The complexity of the basic chemical industry offers diverse investment opportunities, but careful analysis of influencing factors is essential to avoid value traps [5] - High-profit products in the chemical market are characterized by significant barriers to entry, such as proprietary technology or high certification requirements [11][12] Future Trends - The industry is expected to see a turning point between the second half of 2025 and 2026, driven by sufficient adjustment time and clear signals of a market bottom [21] - The current cycle differs from the previous one in terms of orderliness and scale, with a higher concentration of market power among leading firms [19][20] Additional Important Insights - The integration of new technologies and processes can lead to significant cost reductions, positioning companies favorably on the cost curve [9] - The importance of understanding inventory cycles and global agricultural demand is critical for companies involved in pesticide production [10]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing consumer awareness of sugar control has led to a growing preference for sugar-free and low-sugar beverages that use sweeteners, despite ongoing safety concerns regarding these sweeteners [1][2]. Group 1: Understanding Sugar-Free Beverages - "Sugar-free" does not necessarily mean "no sugar" as it can still contain other types of sugars; products labeled as "sugar-free" must have sugar content less than or equal to 0.5g/100ml [2]. - Products claiming to be "sugar-free" may still contain other sugars like fructose or glucose syrup, which can lead to confusion among consumers [2]. Group 2: Sweeteners and Weight Management - Most sweeteners do not contribute to metabolism and are low in calories, which can help reduce overall energy intake when replacing sugar, aiding in weight management [4]. - However, consuming sweeteners alongside high-calorie foods can still lead to excessive energy intake and potential weight gain, emphasizing the importance of a balanced diet and exercise [4]. Group 3: Sweeteners and Diabetes - Diabetes is a metabolic disease not directly caused by sugar or sweeteners; maintaining a healthy lifestyle is crucial for prevention [6]. - Sweeteners do not significantly affect blood sugar levels and are safe for inclusion in the diets of diabetic patients [7].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "anti-involution" policy in China, focusing on structural adjustments aimed at increasing the proportion of high-quality supply to achieve industrial upgrades, contrasting with the 2016 policies targeting cyclical supply-demand imbalances in the steel and coal industries [1][6][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Anti-Involution Policy Goals**: The policy aims to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, enhance product quality, and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated production capacity to achieve high-quality development through technological upgrades [2][5]. - **Electricity Consumption vs. Industrial Value Added**: In 2023-2024, China's industrial electricity consumption is expected to grow faster than industrial value added, indicating a slowdown in investment and a necessary capacity clearance [11]. - **Wind Power Sector**: The wind power sector is benefiting from stabilized bidding prices and increased demand, with private companies showing significant profit recovery potential if strict cost control measures are implemented [3][21]. - **Copper Smelting Industry Challenges**: The copper smelting industry faces severe raw material shortages, with over 80% reliance on imports. The TC price is currently negative, indicating unsustainable conditions that may improve with industry consolidation [34]. - **Pig Farming Industry**: The pig farming sector is under pressure from CPI and capacity recovery issues, with policies aimed at controlling sow inventory to stabilize prices [3][39]. Additional Important Content - **New Anti-Unfair Competition Law**: The revised law includes provisions to combat involution-style competition, prohibiting illegal subsidies from local governments and enhancing regulation of low-quality products [7]. - **Differences from Previous Policies**: The current anti-involution policy differs from the 2016 supply-side reforms by focusing on structural quality improvements rather than merely reducing total capacity [6][15]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The conference highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors like wind power, where companies like Goldwind Technology and Yunda shares are recommended due to their cost advantages and recovery potential [21]. - **Challenges in the Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic sector faces challenges such as oversupply in the silicon material segment and financial pressures on companies, necessitating regulatory measures against low-cost sales [16][17]. - **Future of the Construction Materials Sector**: The construction materials sector, particularly in waterproofing and cement, is expected to see consolidation and price increases as inefficient players exit the market [26][29]. Conclusion - The anti-involution policy is set to reshape various industries in China, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than sheer output. Key sectors such as wind power, copper smelting, and the pig farming industry are highlighted for their unique challenges and opportunities in this evolving landscape.