晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 17 日 核心结论 分析师 【基金】行业主题基金专题研究（六）-主动篇：先进制造主题基金研究框 架及产品优选 本文构建主动型先进制造主题基金池。根据主动权益基金对制造行业的配 置、基金与先进制造概念的相关系数等标签划分，细分为均衡型/专注单一 赛道型制造基金、机器人/军工/汽车/新能源/智能驾驶/电池等概念主题基金。 综合定量定性指标、当下投资关注度，建议关注：1）机器人主题：永赢先 进制造智选、鹏华碳中和、平安先进制造、中航趋势领航等；2）军工主题： 长信国防军工、华夏军工安全、永赢高端装备智选等。 【证券Ⅱ】证券行业 2026 年度策略：步步向上，欣欣向荣 我们认为经济定调积极下资本市场上升趋势仍在，券商板块仍是年内不可多 得的相对低估+业绩同比高增的细分资产。在自营相对难以预测、叠加增量 资金持续入市带动 ADT 中枢高企下，我们认为当前经纪主线是不错的选择， 推荐国泰海通、华泰证券、东方证券、国信证券、广发证券，建议关注方正 证券；此外，推荐受益于权益市场活跃的九方智投控股、有望通过换股吸收 大智慧实现增长的湘财股份、持续受益于港股 IPO 回暖的中金公 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Management - The central bank is gradually implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with macro-prudential management continuously improving, as evidenced by the recent financial forum where the central bank governor emphasized the importance of debt market operations [6][8] - The central bank's net purchase of 700 billion yuan in government bonds from October to December 2024 is aimed at alleviating supply-side pressures, indicating a mature timing for the resumption of bond trading [6][7] - The construction of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system is being accelerated to prevent and resolve financial risks, enhancing the ability to manage banking asset quality concerns [8] Group 2: Capital Market Reforms - The capital market is focusing on deepening investment and financing reforms while enhancing protections for small and medium investors, as highlighted in a recent speech by the chairman of the securities regulatory commission [11][12] - The multi-tiered capital market system is being reinforced, with specific reforms aimed at the growth board and the North Exchange to better serve emerging industries and technologies [13][14] - The introduction of a refinancing framework is expected to streamline the process for quality companies, allowing them to issue securities in a more flexible manner [15] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Huayang Group reported Q3 2025 revenue of 3.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%, driven by strong performance in automotive electronics and precision die-casting [19][20] - Hengli Hydraulic achieved a revenue of 7.79 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 12.31% year-on-year growth, with a notable recovery in the excavator industry [23][24] - Hengli Petrochemical's Q3 net profit increased by 81.47% year-on-year, despite a revenue decline, due to effective cost management and improved gross margins [27][28] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations for Huayang Group suggest a clear growth path driven by automotive electronics and precision die-casting, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [22] - Hengli Hydraulic is positioned as a leader in the hydraulic components market, with expected net profits of 2.796 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a strong recovery in the excavator sector [25] - Hengli Petrochemical is expected to benefit from a new cycle in the refining industry, with a maintained "buy" rating based on its robust dividend policy and market position [29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Insights - The company has received approval for a new indication for its product Pegasys, which is expected to enhance its market position in treating chronic hepatitis B [6] - The commercialization of the long-acting growth hormone (Yipeisheng) is accelerating, with significant market potential as it is the second product of its kind approved in China [6] - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues of 37.34 billion yuan, 49.60 billion yuan, and 63.64 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2022 was 1,527 million yuan, with a projected increase to 2,100 million yuan in 2023, and further growth to 3,734 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 34.86% in 2022 and 37.55% in 2023 [3][7] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 287 million yuan in 2022, expected to rise to 555 million yuan in 2023, and reach 1,092 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 58.40% in 2022 and 93.52% in 2023 [3][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.71 yuan in 2022 to 2.68 yuan in 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 100.63 in 2022 to 26.45 in 2025 [3][7] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The approval of Pegasys for a new indication strengthens the company's position in the hepatitis treatment market, potentially increasing its market share [6] - The long-acting growth hormone Yipeisheng is expected to capture significant market share due to its innovative formulation and lower dosing requirements compared to competitors [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of the Xiamen Biopharmaceutical Port and the success story of Teva Biopharma, which has evolved from a small team to a leading company in the biopharmaceutical industry in China [1][2]. Company Overview - Teva Biopharma, established in 1996, focuses on the research, production, and sales of recombinant proteins and long-acting modified drugs, primarily in the field of immunology [2]. - The company has developed several first-class new drugs, including Pegfilgrastim, Yipeng, and Peijin, based on its innovative platform technology centered around polyethylene glycol long-acting drugs [2]. Financial Performance - From 2018 to 2024, Teva Biopharma's operating revenue increased from 448 million to 2.817 billion, while net profit rose from 16 million to 827 million [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported R&D expenditures of 202 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.77% [3]. Innovation and Development - Teva Biopharma emphasizes continuous innovation, with a focus on building a core technology platform that includes PEG modification, drug production, and optimization [4]. - The company has transitioned from a small team of 7 to over 2,000 employees and successfully listed on the STAR Market in January 2020, marking a significant milestone in its development [4]. Future Outlook - The company views innovation as its greatest opportunity and recognizes the risk of losing direction in the innovation process [5]. - Teva Biopharma aims to shift from single drug development to integrated innovation through multi-path technology, addressing complex diseases and enhancing clinical efficacy and value [5].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, raising concerns about potential recession risks, with initial jobless claims remaining low despite a slowdown in hiring[7] - The unemployment rate is experiencing its slowest increase in history, transitioning from supply constraints to demand constraints in the labor market[7] - The estimated monthly job additions needed to maintain the current unemployment rate is between 150,000 and 180,000, while the recent average has been only 120,000[9] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The U.S. CPI for August increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, indicating a stable inflation trend[15] - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more dovish stance, potentially implementing 2-3 rate cuts within the year due to rising unemployment concerns[17] - The market is currently pricing in expectations of monetary policy easing, which may benefit gold prices amid geopolitical tensions[28] Group 3: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The Chinese stock market is projected to reach new highs within the year, driven by accelerated economic transformation and improved visibility in development[31] - Emerging technologies and cyclical financial sectors are identified as key investment opportunities, with a focus on sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace[33] - The commercial aerospace market is expected to grow significantly, with China's market share in global investment rising to 24% by 2024[22]

Macro Research - The US labor market is experiencing a significant slowdown in new job creation, raising concerns about a potential recession, although it has not yet reached that point. The impacts of immigration and retirement on labor supply are diminishing, making it difficult to maintain the current balance between supply and demand in the labor market, which has raised alarms about a potential slowdown [4][12][14] - The average monthly new job creation needed to keep the unemployment rate stable is estimated to be between 150,000 and 180,000. However, the recent average has fallen to 120,000, which is below this range, indicating a need for policy adjustments to stimulate job growth [14][16] Company Research: Anhui Expressway - Anhui Expressway completed the acquisition of group road assets in Q1 2025, significantly enhancing its performance. The company is also benefiting from the accelerated recovery of toll revenues following the expansion of the Xuanguang Expressway, with a 13% year-on-year increase in toll revenue [6][7] - The company has committed to a high dividend policy, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% of net profit for 2025-2027, which is expected to yield dividend rates of 4.9%, 4.9%, and 4.7% respectively [7][9] - Despite recent stock price pressure due to shareholder reduction announcements, the long-term value of Anhui Expressway remains intact, supported by its strong return on equity (ROE) and stable cash flow [7][9] Industry Research: Transportation - The transportation sector is seeing a recovery in toll revenues, particularly in the context of expressway expansions, which is expected to continue driving stable growth in comparable performance metrics [6][7] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by changes in risk appetite, with a focus on high dividend yields and stable cash flows in the transportation industry [7][9] Industry Research: Coal - The coal industry is strategically viewed positively, with expectations of upward price trends driven by increased demand and supply constraints. The total coal production for the year is projected to remain stable, with a slight decrease expected in the second half due to regulatory impacts [31][33] - The price of thermal coal has seen a slight decline, but overall demand is expected to improve, particularly in Q3, as the market adjusts to supply dynamics [34][31] Industry Research: Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel industry is facing challenges, with export growth slowing down in both China and Vietnam. In August, China's textile and apparel exports fell by 5% year-on-year, indicating a significant decline in growth momentum [35][36] - Several Taiwanese manufacturers reported a slowdown in revenue growth, highlighting the pressures faced by the manufacturing sector amid changing market conditions [36][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][12]. Core Views - The core product, Peginterferon, continues to see increased volume, and the newly approved Yipeisheng is expected to contribute additional revenue [2][12]. - The company achieved a revenue of 1.511 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a growth of 26.96%, and a net profit of 428 million yuan, up 40.60% [12]. - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2026 to 2.69 yuan and 3.62 yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 5.04 yuan [12]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 2.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 6.45 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 32% [12][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 555 million yuan in 2023 to 2.048 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [12][13]. - The company’s net asset return rate (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 29.6% in 2023 to 35.6% in 2027 [13]. Market Data - The stock has a 52-week price range of 58.11 to 91.33 yuan, with a current price of 81.70 yuan [6][12]. - The target price set for the stock is 99.41 yuan, based on a valuation of 37 times the projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 [5][12]. Product Development - The long-acting interferon is solidifying its foundational role in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B, driving rapid growth in Peginterferon sales [12]. - The long-acting growth hormone, Yipeisheng, has been approved and is expected to enhance revenue through its competitive advantages in product design and service [12]. - The company is increasing its research and development investments and expanding its pipeline in liver disease treatments through various collaborations [12].

Core Viewpoint - Changchun High-tech is facing significant challenges with declining revenues and profits, indicating a struggle to maintain its market position amid increasing competition and pricing pressures in the pharmaceutical industry [1][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Changchun High-tech reported revenue of 6.603 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.54% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell sharply by 42.85% to 983 million yuan [1]. - For the full year of 2024, the company expects revenue to be 13.466 billion yuan, down 7.55% year-on-year, and net profit to drop by 43.01% to 2.583 billion yuan, marking the first annual revenue decline since 2004 [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a further decline in net profit by 44.95%, with no signs of stabilization in performance [1]. Key Business Segments - Jinsai Pharmaceutical, a major profit source for Changchun High-tech, achieved revenue of 5.469 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 6.17% year-on-year, but net profit plummeted by 37.35% to 1.108 billion yuan, highlighting a significant disparity between revenue growth and profit decline [2]. - The core products of Jinsai Pharmaceutical, particularly growth hormone products, are facing challenges due to price pressures from collective procurement policies initiated in 2023, which have significantly impacted profit margins [2]. Cost Structure - Sales expenses for Changchun High-tech reached 2.386 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 23.43% year-on-year, while management expenses rose by 31.26% to 724 million yuan, further straining profitability amid stagnant revenue [3]. - Research and development expenses amounted to 1.335 billion yuan, a 17.32% increase year-on-year, representing over 20% of revenue, with the approval of the IL-1β monoclonal antibody "Jinbeixin" marking a significant milestone in the company's biopharmaceutical innovation efforts [3]. Market Competition - The approval of Teva Biopharmaceutical's long-acting growth hormone product "Yipeisheng" in May 2025 has ended Jinsai Pharmaceutical's long-standing monopoly in the growth hormone market, leading to intensified competition [4]. - Other competitors, including international pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk, are also entering the market with competitive products, indicating a shift towards a more competitive landscape in the growth hormone sector [4]. Secondary Growth Drivers - The company's secondary growth driver, the shingles vaccine, has also underperformed, with revenue from its subsidiary Baike Bio falling by 53.93% to 285 million yuan in the first half of 2025, and a 71.54% decline expected in 2024 [4][5]. - The overall market for vaccines has been adversely affected by decreased public willingness to receive vaccinations post-COVID-19, compounding the challenges faced by Baike Bio [5]. Conclusion - The decline in net profits and the challenges faced by Changchun High-tech underscore the vulnerabilities of companies heavily reliant on single product lines amid regulatory and competitive pressures [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [34]. Core Insights - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a gain of 3.86% from August 8 to August 21, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 0.35 percentage points [13]. - All sub-sectors within the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with the medical consumables and medical devices sectors leading with increases of 6.80% and 5.88%, respectively [14]. - Approximately 73% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, indicating a broad recovery across the sector [15]. - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry was about 54.73 times as of August 21, 2025, with a relative PE to the CSI 300 of 4.23 times, showing little change in valuation [19][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, gaining 3.86% from August 8 to August 21, 2025, which is 0.35 percentage points lower than the index [13]. - All sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with medical consumables and medical devices leading at 6.80% and 5.88% increases, respectively [14]. - About 73% of stocks in the industry had positive returns during this period [15]. - The industry valuation remained stable, with a PE ratio of 54.73 times and a relative PE of 4.23 times compared to the CSI 300 [19]. 2. Industry News - Significant developments include the initiation of large-scale collective procurement for high-value medical consumables, with notifications issued by Sichuan and Inner Mongolia regarding historical procurement data for cardiac occluders [26]. - The report highlights the importance of the collective procurement initiative led by Fujian province, which may have national implications for medical consumables [26]. 3. Company Announcements - Notable announcements include the approval of a new clinical trial for a drug by Teva Biopharmaceuticals, indicating ongoing innovation and development within the sector [27]. 4. Industry Outlook - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating, emphasizing the potential for recovery in previously underperforming sectors such as medical consumables and devices, especially as the industry enters a period of intensive earnings disclosures [28]. - Recommended stocks for attention include leading companies across various segments, such as Mindray Medical (300760) and Aier Eye Hospital (300015), which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [30].

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial report of TeBao Bio (688278) shows significant growth in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating a strong performance driven by increased patient acceptance of its core product, Pegasys [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenue reached 1.511 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.96% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 428 million yuan, up 40.6% - In Q2 alone, revenue was 837 million yuan, reflecting a 29.91% increase year-on-year, while net profit for the quarter was 246 million yuan, up 40.01% [1]. - Gross margin stood at 92.98%, a slight decrease of 0.41%, while net margin improved to 28.33%, an increase of 10.74% [1]. - Total operating expenses were 737 million yuan, accounting for 48.76% of revenue, down 6.08% year-on-year [1]. Cash Flow and Assets - Cash flow from operating activities saw a remarkable increase of 397.97%, attributed to a significant rise in cash received from product sales [4]. - The company experienced a 42.27% increase in cash and cash equivalents due to improved collections and the redemption of financial products [2]. - Trade receivables surged by 215.76%, reflecting expanded revenue scale and increased customer bill settlements [2]. R&D and Market Strategy - R&D expenses rose by 53.46%, driven by ongoing projects and increased personnel costs [4]. - The company emphasizes a customer-centric approach in its sales strategy, focusing on unmet market needs and enhancing product differentiation through innovation [10][11]. - The pricing strategy for its long-acting growth hormone, Yipeisheng, is set at 1798 yuan per 5mg, based on market research [12]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has a strong return on invested capital (ROIC) of 37.11%, indicating high capital efficiency [6]. - Analysts project a revenue of 1.117 billion yuan and an earnings per share of 2.75 yuan for 2025 [8]. - The company is strategically positioned in the immune and metabolic fields, focusing on innovative solutions for major diseases [17][20]. Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding TeBao Bio is Dongfanghong Ruifeng LOF, with a scale of 1.751 billion yuan and a recent net value of 1.705, reflecting a 55.32% increase over the past year [9].